我國能源發展綱領政策環境影響評估 第 1 次說明會

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簡簡簡簡 我我我我我我我我我我我我我我我我 我 1 我我我我 我我我我我我 96 我 10 我 18 我 我我我我我我 Bureau of Energy, MOEA

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經濟部能源局. Bureau of Energy, MOEA. 我國能源發展綱領政策環境影響評估 第 1 次說明會. 簡報資料. 經濟部能源局. 96 年 10 月 18 日. 經濟部能源局. Bureau of Energy, MOEA. 簡報大綱. 壹、前言 貳、能源發展綱領規劃 参、能源發展綱領政策環評方案規劃 肆、結語. 壹、前 言. 一、規劃源起與目的. ( 一 ) 隨著國際能源情勢的急遽轉變,溫室氣體排放與能源供應安全成為能源供需最嚴厲的挑戰;兼顧 能源、環保、經濟的 3E 政策 目標不唯是國際上主流的永續發展政策思維,亦是我國重要的施政方針。 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • 1961018

  • Bureau of Energy, MOEA

  • ()3E()(95)() ()consultation()

  • ()(Policy)(Plan)()

  • 1.2.3.()

  • (Life Cycle Thinking)/1. (6/157/24)2.NGO(8/16)3.(8/229/5)4. (10/18)

  • () () 1. 2. 3.

    ()

  • ()consultation()(5/21)(6/157/24)NGO(8/16)(8/229/5)NGONGONGO

  • (5/21) (6/157/24)PolicyPlan3E94NGO(8/16)94

  • ()(8/229/5) 94NGO20IEA(2007)4020252050 1.2.PolicyPlan3.4. 945.

  • (/)(/mmBtu)()WTO ()

    Chart1

    27.616666666719.682.1905714286

    28.720.662.2632631579

    28.697368421124.353.01525

    28.087526.263.4103636364

    26.9427.063.5635909091

    25.573529411825.53.25935

    22.363636363626.922.9424285714

    21.928.343.0922272727

    22.112529.713.56995

    23.411904761928.874.0884347826

    24.011111111126.294.0400526316

    24.357894736829.454.8380952381

    24.842532.995.3814285714

    24.522222222235.756.6575789474

    24.128947368433.435.7862857143

    23.428.265.3586666667

    23.434210526328.145.9266666667

    23.744736842130.665.9258095238

    24.64530.75.0342272727

    25.386111111131.594.9787142857

    26.995238095228.314.6670952381

    27.821739130430.34.9868695652

    30.235294117631.064.8343333333

    34.812532.146.4693809524

    42.32534.246.2727894737

    44.263157894734.745.363

    51.738095238136.715.5425217391

    55.894736842136.695.765952381

    58.911764705940.246.39865

    61.11386.334

    62.212540.796.064047619

    59.483333333344.95.4718181818

    54.947619047645.95.2199047619

    52.953.247.3712857143

    51.548.447.6086

    51.595238095243.26.828

    52.7546.836.1824210526

    50.5847.946.1746666667

    50.954.336.99435

    51.552.897.1710555556

    51.8549.846.49195

    51.8456.367.22395

    51.7158.68057.5784705882

    47.311363636464.96043478269.2242380952

    45.165.516904761912.1521578947

    41.559523809562.280476190513.4545238095

    37.931818181858.27111.6959

    38.9159.407142857113.425047619

    42.665.464759.13595

    47.52561.57105263167.5206315789

    49.665217391362.82521739136.9793478261

    52.6369.46315789477.2761578947

    52.97570.86818181826.3728181818

    51.2570.87681818186.3852380952

    53.1674.38210526326.2220526316

    51.9773.00826086966.9893043478

    48.4363.742755.21855

    44.5158.82136363646.6335909091

    4559.02757.9954

    51.0561.95757.2066842105

    52.0554.137256.79945

    48.777559.20105263167.5465789474

    53.129545454560.62431818187.2364285714

    54.123809523863.81105263167.62915

    54.589130434863.40454545457.8217272727

    58.345238095267.43714285717.5036666667

    3926474.10142857146.3992380952

    Newcastle (6700kcal)

    WTI

    NYMEX NG

    Sheet1

    Newcastle (6700kcal)WTINYMEX NGNYMEX NG

    ///MMBTU/

    2000-0127.262.3913.84

    2000-0229.392.6115.16

    2000-0329.862.8316.40

    2000-0425.783.0317.57

    2000-0528.803.6020.86

    2000-0631.884.3024.96

    2000-0729.713.9723.04

    2000-0831.334.4625.87

    2000-0933.895.1329.76

    2000-1033.025.0829.46

    2000-1134.405.7433.30

    2000-1228.358.6249.99

    2001-0129.567.8345.39

    2001-0229.565.6832.92

    2001-0327.185.1930.10

    2001-0427.404.4425.73

    2001-0528.614.2424.62

    2001-0627.573.7821.94

    2001-0726.433.1718.37

    2001-0827.402.9417.02

    2001-0926.082.2112.84

    2001-1031.1022.082.6215.18

    2001-1126.7319.592.7916.16

    2001-1226.0719.272.6915.58

    2002-0127.6219.682.1912.71

    2002-0228.7020.662.2613.13

    2002-0328.7024.353.0217.49

    2002-0428.0926.263.4119.78

    2002-0526.9427.063.5620.67

    2002-0625.5725.503.2618.90

    2002-0722.3626.922.9417.07

    2002-0821.9028.343.0917.93

    2002-0922.1129.713.5720.71

    2002-1023.4128.874.0923.71

    2002-1124.0126.294.0423.43

    2002-1224.3629.454.8428.06

    2003-0124.8432.995.3831.21

    2003-0224.5235.756.6638.61

    2003-0324.1333.435.7933.56

    2003-0423.4028.265.3631.08

    2003-0523.4328.145.9334.37

    2003-0623.7430.665.9334.37

    2003-0724.6530.705.0329.20

    2003-0825.3931.594.9828.88

    2003-0927.0028.314.6727.07

    2003-1027.8230.304.9928.92

    2003-1130.2431.064.8328.04

    2003-1234.8132.146.4737.52

    2004-0142.3334.246.2736.38

    2004-0244.2634.745.3631.11

    2004-0351.7436.715.5432.15

    2004-0455.8936.695.7733.44

    2004-0558.9140.246.4037.11

    2004-0661.1138.006.3336.74

    2004-0762.2140.796.0635.17

    2004-0859.4844.905.4731.74

    2004-0954.9545.905.2230.28

    2004-1052.9053.247.3742.75

    2004-1151.5048.447.6144.13

    2004-1251.6043.206.8339.60

    2005-0152.7546.836.1835.86

    2005-0250.5847.946.1735.81

    2005-0350.9054.336.9940.57

    2005-0451.5052.897.1741.59

    2005-0551.8549.846.4937.65

    2005-0651.8456.367.2241.90

    2005-0751.7158.687.5843.96

    2005-0847.3164.969.2253.50

    2005-0945.1065.5212.1570.48

    2005-1041.5662.2813.4578.04

    2005-1137.9358.2711.7067.84

    2005-1238.9159.4113.4377.87

    2006-0142.6065.469.1452.99

    2006-0247.5361.577.5243.62

    2006-0349.6762.836.9840.48

    2006-0452.6369.467.2842.20

    2006-0552.9870.876.3736.96

    2006-0651.2570.886.3937.03

    2006-0753.1674.386.2236.09

    2006-0851.9773.016.9940.54

    2006-0948.4363.745.2230.27

    2006-1044.5158.826.6338.47

    2006-1145.0059.038.0046.37

    2006-1251.0561.967.2141.80

    2007-0152.0554.146.8039.44

    2007-0248.7859.207.5543.77

    2007-0353.1360.627.2441.97

    2007-0454.1263.817.6344.25

    2007-0554.5963.407.8245.37

    2007-0658.3567.447.5043.52

    2007-0774.106.4037.12

    Sheet1

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    Newcastle (6700kcal)

    WTI

    NYMEX NG

    (/)

    (/mmBtu)

    Sheet2

    Sheet3

  • ()IEA(2007)203076.9%~81.2%4161147()

  • ()1.2.

    ()

  • 95.3% 95.9% 97.0% 98.0%

    ()()98% ()91 %50.9 %

  • 3E()1.2.3.4.1.2.3.4.1.2.3.4.

  • ()

  • (94)()(())()94194(())294(())NGO11494(257)CO294(())

  • () E9494

  • 1.202028%2006-20251.2%2025200522-27%202541-45%30-31%16-19%4%5-7%202548-50%2-3% 27-28%5%5%10-12% (2025CO217,000)2005-2015GDP4.21%2015-2025GDP3.55%2005-2025GDP3.90%2025()

  • 2.

    ( ) 2010 513 202580090012% 2010 1,300 20252,0002,200 1. 2. 3.1. CO2CO22.(cap and trade)cap and trade

  • 2.

    2025942227% 2015200010%2025200016% 2025546 1.2.()3.1. ()2.

  • 2.

    1.35%40%2.200445%202053% 201080020201,0005%

    20259449-99%

  • 2.

    1. ( ) 2.

  • 1

    3.

    200520152025%%% 4,355.632.05,547~ 5,94033-357,525.5 ~8,729.941~45 6,928.850.96,161~ 6,77237-405,411.4 ~2,091.0 30~31 1,085.18.02,265~ 2,582 13-153,131.3~3,436.4 16~19 1,157.68.51,4348667.5 4 () 74.70.5711~982 4~61,008.8~1291.0 5~7 13,601100.0 16,705~17,122 18,332~19,628

  • 2

    3.

  • 4.(1)(2)200585.1NOx2015109.8NOx2025160.6NOx1.89(3)20054.2PM2.520155.6PM2.520258.0PM2.51.92(4)(SOxNOxPM10)200591.42025174.2 2005(95)20152025

    (NOx)(PM2.5)200585.14.291.42015109.85.6116.92025160.68.0174.2

  • 1.()

  • 2.

    () 2010 513 202580090012% 2010 1,300 20252,0002,200()201010B2 201110E32025B5E10()()

  • 2.

    1. 2. 3.1.CO2CO22.(cap and trade)cap and trade ()1.2.3.2015 ()CO2

  • 2.

    2025942227% 2015200010%2025200016% 2025546() 1.2.()3.1. ()2.1.()2.()

  • 2.

    1.35%40%2.200445%202053%3.201543%()2020IGCCCCS() 201080020201,0005%()

    20259449-99%1.2.()() ()()

  • 2.

    1. ( ) 2.1.2.202515%()1.2.14()

  • AHP()

    1.53-55%2.LNGLNG1.IGCCCCS2.LNGLNG1.2.LNGLNG2005-2025GDP3.90%1.2.CO21.(2025CO2170)2.1.CO22.1.257 2.

  • (LNG)715712.720211.31418.11187.73250.131780 8116216.834201.13224.62074.4840764124 9137476.255770.9857.815779825105507 18 64 4 4 10 25 53 5 3 13 36 53 1 1 9

    1291/71201