10

1 C-C

2 2040-70N62mm/5085%595%030N98mm/2040%0-30S82mm/75-12%

19012005a/10019792005b/10c1900200519611990aabc1

2 1050XuebinZhang2007

Long-term change in annual precipitation in China (normalized) for the past 100 years (1905-2001) and number of rain gauge stations. Assessment of Climate Change in China, 20061905-200133

Assessment of Climate Change in China, 2006Long-term change in annual precipitation in China (nomalized) for the past 50 years (1956-2002)1956-20024

3

4

Bengtson,19985

(a) 19882004()(%/10)(b)(c)(80N80S)19822004(C/10)T2-T12)6

(:kg/m2)7

1948-20058

-34.5mm10-1

IPCC,2007

1950196040-50

19701950-197020

(a)(b)(c)(d)912318802003

1*50%

A123B544, 14*, 30*, 80*2*, 7, 30*2*, 7*, 20*, 40*2*, 7,14, 40*3, 9, 18*, 40*, 803*, 9, 185 (121)2, 7, 12, 40*, 80*2, 7*, 12, 40*

295%

5Running Test1980, 199219781965, 1979 1978Yamamoto et al., (1986)1980, 199219791964, 19801980Mann-Kendall (1945; 1975)1993198219751978

1951-19781979-19921993-20041971-2000 10

40Xu et al.,2006 11

(a)(b)(c)(d)EOF1951-2004(a)(c): EOF1(b)(d): EOF212

1951-2004(107.5-130E)- : mm 13

1870-2003IPCC,200714

(a)(b)Long-term variation of summer monsoon indexERANCEP15

16 850 hPa unit: ms-1

1955-2004 (a) (Q2) (b)-300hPa: Kgm-1g-1 (a) 10-5Kgm-1s-1 (b). (a)(b)17

(a)(b)(c)50 (a) (b) (c) EOF 1 . Unit: mm. 18

1

51

122.5

47.5

92.4

39.8

107.7

51

138.9

58.6

58.9

54.3

75.8

75.3

66.4

123.5

51.4

71

117.9

63.2

97.2

78.7

99.4

116.8

51.8

66.9

137

76.9

108

109.9

103.6

72.3

64.3

116.7

81.4

105.6

205.9

67

151.2

55.3

80.5

72.4

62

54.2

51.3

10to5

2

22.2

97.9

20

68.5

19.5

83.1

16.4

103.5

18.6

27.7

23.8

49.1

47.2

32.5

92.5

26.7

29.2

72.5

41.7

68.9

34.3

58.2

76.5

24

42.7

82.7

38.3

59.9

70.9

67

36.8

40.3

78.3

48.2

76.5

148.2

26.6

107.2

30

40.5

40.8

37

27.3

30.6

11to2

3

-29.7

46

-31.9

16.6

-32.4

31.2

-35.5

51.6

-33.3

-24.2

-28.1

-2.8

-4.7

-19.4

40.6

-25.2

-22.7

20.6

-10.2

17

-17.6

6.3

24.6

-27.9

-9.2

30.8

-13.6

8

19

15.1

-15.1

-11.6

26.4

-3.7

24.6

96.3

-25.3

55.3

-21.9

-11.4

-11.1

-14.9

-24.6

-21.3

nor11to2

4

-24.6

33.5

-27.5

5.8-6.44

-24.72.69

21.4-6.64

-29-5.26

39.3-9.23

-31.8-7.37

-17.8-12.24

-22-10.14

-11.7-10.56

-12.7-9.13

-14.3-8.74

36.4-4.49

-21.8-5.13

-15.10.36

7.80.63

-16.2-4.59

25.71.29

-12.40.83

-0.1-1.96

19.33.79

-18.3-1.14

-11.71.69

245.11

-8.83.81

7.45.43

23.96.51

10.27.89

-79.41

-4.111.64

33.619.86

1.915.3

2323.27

81.421.3

-21.714.47

48.812.89

-17.98.34

-14.2-6.7

-9.2-5.76

-8.8

-23.9

-15.1

Time(year)

Anomalies of Snow Depth Index(cm) DJF

5

-3-4.2352941176

-4.8-4.235

-7.8-4.235

-2.1-5.53-4.235

-8.8-5.2-4.235

-4.6-4.63-4.235

-7.6-4.6-4.235

-0.7-3.91-4.235

-0.8-3.3-4.235

-7.6-3.2-4.235

2.7-2.77-4.235

-4.5-3.34-4.235

-3.9-3.81-4.235

-4.6-3.46-4.235

-4.7-3.33-4.235

-4.1-1.64-4.235

-5.1-2.06-4.235

3.6-1.444.2318181818

7.30.474.23

-6.82.564.23

-0.34.244.23

8.72.834.23

10.50.944.23

6.72.294.23

-6.32.794.23

-5.92.414.23

2.61.974.23

3.21.564.23

6.13.074.23

7.43.074.23

3.83.44.23

4.33.164.23

-5.93.114.23

4.95.934.23

1.56.134.23

5.86.894.23

27.16.544.23

5.25.514.23

9.654.23

-8.33.43

-2.3-1.31

-2.1-3.51

-5.2

-6.1

-10.2

Time(year)

Anomalies of Snow Depth Index(cm) MA

6

-4.3

-6.4

-6.9

-2.1-5.87

-6.5-5.36

-6-4.51

-8.9-4.79

-0.7-4.19

-0.5-3.36

-8.8-3.3

2.1-2.66

-0.7-3.1

-5.6-3.23

-4.4-2.47

-3.8-1.36

-1.4-0.44

-3.5-1.03

9.9-0.64

5.71.11

-9.73.26

-1.74.93

8.52.7

13.61.1

8.23.27

-5.74.33

-5.53.91

5.53.23

5.72.74

5.63.86

8.83.97

4.84.01

2.13.2

-4.72.66

5.85.24

05.29

1.85.96

26.95.39

5.13.99

6.84.2

-8.73.47

-4-1.04

1.5-3.21

-3.3

-4.7

-10.1

nor345

Sheet1

0123456789101112(-1)10(-1)11(-1)1210to511to2nor11to212to2nor12to234nor34345nor345ma012ma34ma34534a60to7634a77to9834a99to0411to3

19602.969.17.44.30.80.10.31.110.15.61.716.5-320.8-4.3-4.2352941176

19614.9108.66.140.500.13.56.423.237.710.15.61.75122.2-29.716.6-24.614.7-4.818.7-6.4-4.23530.8

196223.113.97.54.26.51.20.10.91.44.56.310.76.423.237.7122.597.94674.733.511.7-7.818.2-6.9-4.235105.4

19631.41.69.87.65.61.80.40.13.25.321.516.34.56.310.747.520-31.913.7-27.517.4-2.123-2.1-5.53-5.87-4.23529.8

196418.911.84.95.87.91.50.20.20.91.233.85.321.516.392.468.516.6475.810.7-8.818.6-6.5-6.44-5.2-5.36-4.23573.4

19650.911.87.77.24.21.30.20.72.88.420.517.31.233.839.819.5-32.416.5-24.714.9-4.619.1-62.69-4.63-4.51-4.23527.2

196632.612.765.94.31.50.102.510.24.228.420.517.3107.783.131.262.621.411.9-7.616.2-8.9-6.64-4.6-4.79-4.23589.1

19673.86.410.97.95.61.30.201.610.82332.710.24.225116.4-35.512.2-2918.8-0.724.4-0.7-5.26-3.91-4.19-4.23527.3

196834.513.310.38.45.91.90.10.50.823.79.21.410.82332.7138.9103.551.680.539.318.7-0.824.6-0.5-9.23-3.3-3.36-4.235113.8

1969625.36.64.41.60.10.12.444.31.123.79.21.458.618.6-33.39.4-31.811.9-7.616.3-8.8-7.37-3.2-3.3-4.23523.9

19707.414.914.37.952.60.10.11.76.14.61.544.31.158.927.7-24.223.4-17.822.22.727.22.1-12.24-2.77-2.66-4.23542

197110.37.46.18.99.41.40.10.21.57.219.65.86.14.61.554.323.8-28.119.2-2215-4.524.4-0.7-10.14-3.34-3.1-4.23529.9

19723.620.15.6103.90.90.10.12.17.418.710.67.219.65.875.849.1-2.829.5-11.715.6-3.919.5-5.6-10.56-3.81-3.23-4.23554.7

19738.998.86.15.81.80.20.4112.65.615.67.418.710.675.347.2-4.728.5-12.714.9-4.620.7-4.4-9.13-3.46-2.47-4.23556

19746.94.49.94.96.51.20.50.11.67.314.920.712.65.615.666.432.5-19.426.9-14.314.8-4.721.3-3.8-8.74-3.33-1.36-4.23542.4

197526.530.49.16.38.31.50.60.20.93.17.33.57.314.920.7123.592.540.677.636.415.4-4.123.7-1.4-4.49-1.64-0.44-4.235101.6

1976312.986.47.21.41.50.42.36.83.11.73.17.33.551.426.7-25.219.4-21.814.4-5.121.6-3.5-5.13-2.06-1.03-4.23534.7

19778.515.9914.111.920.10.30.914.623.518.96.83.11.77129.2-22.726.1-15.123.13.6359.90.36-1.44-0.644.231818181838.2

197818.511.616.110.741.80.20.31.66.116.77.814.623.518.9117.972.520.6497.826.87.330.85.70.630.471.114.2388.6

19796.710.56.762.70.90.80.22.64.9229.36.116.77.863.241.7-10.225-16.212.7-6.815.4-9.7-4.592.563.264.2348.4

198025.911.713.45.84.220.50.11.510.85.51.24.9229.397.268.91766.925.719.2-0.323.4-1.71.294.244.934.2382.3

19811710.614.413.85.40.80.10.12.32.517.122.910.85.51.278.734.3-17.628.8-12.428.28.733.68.50.832.832.74.2348.7

19823.614.614.315.78.71.90.10.12.871624.12.517.122.999.458.26.341.1-0.13010.538.713.6-1.960.941.14.2372.5

198322.214.215.810.47.12.20.20.20.98.41.14.371624.1116.876.524.660.519.326.26.733.38.23.792.293.274.2392.3

198414.73.95.57.76.21.30.10.21.34.613.24.28.41.14.351.824-27.922.9-18.313.2-6.319.4-5.7-1.142.794.334.2329.5

198515.210.16.57.162.60.60.33.123.717.523.84.613.24.266.942.7-9.229.5-11.713.6-5.919.6-5.51.692.413.914.2349.2

19862714.48.513.68.51.30.21.22.77.85.918.423.717.523.813782.730.865.22422.12.630.65.55.111.973.234.2391.2

19877.96.110.412.38.1100.72.717.411.323.87.85.918.476.938.3-13.632.4-8.822.73.230.85.73.811.562.744.2348.7

1988168.8178.65.11.30.20.11.85.15.85.517.411.323.810859.9848.67.425.66.130.75.65.433.073.864.2376.9

198937.322.31214.971.50.30.11.46.715.623.55.15.85.5109.970.91965.123.926.97.433.98.86.513.073.974.2382.9

199014.91313.210.16.61.30.20.11.38.32.62.16.715.623.5103.66715.151.410.223.33.829.94.87.893.44.014.2380.2

1991257.113.710.13.40.600.10.43.63.210.78.32.62.172.336.8-15.134.2-723.84.327.22.19.413.163.24.2350.5

199212.813.68.55.16.80.2000.17.53.510.73.63.210.764.340.3-11.637.1-4.113.6-5.920.4-4.711.643.112.664.2348.8

19934915.116.67.86.50.3000.88.15.127.53.510.7116.778.326.474.833.624.44.930.95.819.865.935.244.2394.9

199422.1199.311.74.10.300.10.12.212.310.38.15.1281.448.2-3.743.11.9211.525.1015.36.135.294.2357.5

199529.724.211.214.11.6000.20.45.725.623.22.212.310.3105.676.524.664.22325.35.826.91.823.276.895.964.2387.7

199650.249.238.87.85.41.5000.510.27.10.65.725.623.2205.9148.296.3122.681.446.627.15226.921.36.545.394.23187

19974.714.2159.75.50.4000.612.117.244.710.27.10.66726.6-25.319.5-21.724.75.230.25.114.475.513.994.2341.6

199832.213.120.38.82.80.50.10.10.48.96.7512.117.244.7151.2107.255.39048.829.19.631.96.812.8954.24.23127.5

199913.25.18.13.15.220.10.30.318.913.55.88.96.7555.330-21.923.3-17.911.2-8.316.4-8.78.343.433.47-5.738.1

20009.2129.37.93.90.30.10.11.658.816.918.913.55.880.540.5-11.427-14.217.2-2.321.1-4-6.7-1.31-1.04-5.749.8

200110.74.47.79.79.21.500.10.33.24.66.458.816.972.440.8-11.132-9.217.4-2.126.61.5-5.76-3.51-3.21-5.748.5

200218.47.67.66.77.5100.11.46.5102.53.24.66.46237-14.932.4-8.814.3-5.221.8-3.3-5.744.6

20034.8108.15.371.40.100.55.74.55.36.5102.554.227.3-24.617.3-23.913.4-6.120.4-4.7-5.735.4

200413.67.23.16.25.71.50.10.516.76.74.35.74.55.351.330.6-21.326.1-15.19.3-10.215-10.1-5.733.7

6.76.74.351.915909090941.222727272719.530434782625.0955555556

Sheet2

Sheet3

1

-29.41-30.82241960

-27.75-30.82241961

-53.31-30.82241962

-24.64-30.82241963

-66.39-30.82241964

-33.72-30.82241965

-50.62-30.82241966

-7.28-30.82241967

8.28-30.82241968

-61.7-30.82241969

-1.92-30.82241970

-23.95-30.82241971

-24.28-30.82241972

-28.15-30.82241973

-30.11-30.82241974

-37.9-30.82241975

-31.13-30.82241976

38.68197734.26

32.97197834.26

-47.6197934.26

6.34198034.26

80.77198134.26

117.62198234.26

58.46198334.26

-45.68198434.26

-40.96198534.26

19.79198634.26

32.03198734.26

66.07198834.26

75.18198934.26

50.04199034.26

38.13199134.26

-47.16199234.26

67.59199334.26

29.37199434.26

80.82199534.26

41.51199634.26

41.56199734.26

58.18199834.26

-53.3119991999

-17.1520002000

-5.4920012001

-37.0820022002

-39.7220032003

-76.9220042004

Sheet1

eof1seriles1dep60to7677to98

1960106.73-29.41-30.8224

1961108.39-27.75-30.8224

196282.83-53.31-30.8224

1963111.5-24.64-30.8224

196469.75-66.39-30.8224

1965102.42-33.72-30.8224

196685.52-50.62-30.8224

1967128.86-7.28-30.8224

1968144.428.28-30.8224

196974.44-61.7-30.8224

1970134.22-1.92-30.8224

1971112.19-23.95-30.8224

1972111.86-24.28-30.8224

1973107.99-28.15-30.8224

1974106.03-30.11-30.8224

197598.24-37.9-30.8224

1976105.01-31.13-30.8224

1977174.8238.6834.26

1978169.1132.9734.26

197988.54-47.634.26

1980142.486.3434.26

1981216.9180.7734.26

1982253.76117.6234.26

1983194.658.4634.26

198490.46-45.6834.26

198595.18-40.9634.26

1986155.9319.7934.26

1987168.1732.0334.26

1988202.2166.0734.26

1989211.3275.1834.26

1990186.1850.0434.26

1991174.2738.1334.26

199288.98-47.1634.26

1993203.7367.5934.26

1994165.5129.3734.26

1995216.9680.8234.26

1996177.6541.5134.26

1997177.741.5634.26

1998194.3258.1834.26

199982.83-53.31

2000118.99-17.15

2001130.65-5.49

200299.06-37.08

200396.42-39.72

200459.22-76.92

136.1413333333

Sheet2

Sheet3

(a) (b)(a)(b)19

(a)(b)20SVD (a) , (b) . 35.77% and 40.46% 0.97 and 0.96.

(a)(b)21(a) 1951-2004 (160E-100W, 10S-10N) (b) Mann-Kendall SSTA (160E-100W, 10S-10N)=0.05

1

01.471.96-1.96

-11.71.96-1.96

0.521.661.96-1.96

-0.681.891.96-1.96

-0.981.581.96-1.96

-0.941.331.96-1.96

0.151.051.96-1.96

0.741.421.96-1.96

0.421.661.96-1.96

0.451.471.96-1.96

0.391.421.96-1.96

0.411.331.96-1.96

0.981.221.96-1.96

0.491.481.96-1.96

1.141.191.96-1.96

1.171.661.96-1.96

1.071.671.96-1.96

1.171.571.96-1.96

1.51.551.96-1.96

1.041.81.96-1.96

0.421.51.96-1.96

0.991.151.96-1.96

0.41.651.96-1.96

0.151.271.96-1.96

-0.330.871.96-1.96

-0.110.411.96-1.96

0.270.431.96-1.96

0.120.61.96-1.96

0.30.21.96-1.96

0.480.191.96-1.96

0.460.151.96-1.96

0.88-0.181.96-1.96

1.210.251.96-1.96

1.140.661.96-1.96

0.920.321.96-1.96

1.06-0.171.96-1.96

1.49-0.341.96-1.96

1.040.251.96-1.96

1-0.451.96-1.96

1.26-1.141.96-1.96

1.64-1.261.96-1.96

1.9-0.731.96-1.96

2.15-0.271.96-1.96

2.330.231.96-1.96

2.350.631.96-1.96

2.280.631.96-1.96

2.630.491.96-1.96

2.561.651.96-1.96

2.291.691.96-1.96

2.180.981.96-1.96

2.3301.96-1.96

2.59-0.521.96-1.96

2.7211.96-1.96

2.9201.96-1.96

Uf

Ub

mk.sst.pac.sm

195101.471.96-1.96

1952-11.71.96-1.96

19530.521.661.96-1.96

1954-0.681.891.96-1.96

1955-0.981.581.96-1.96

1956-0.941.331.96-1.96

19570.151.051.96-1.96

19580.741.421.96-1.96

19590.421.661.96-1.96

19600.451.471.96-1.96

19610.391.421.96-1.96

19620.411.331.96-1.96

19630.981.221.96-1.96

19640.491.481.96-1.96

19651.141.191.96-1.96

19661.171.661.96-1.96

19671.071.671.96-1.96

19681.171.571.96-1.96

19691.51.551.96-1.96

19701.041.81.96-1.96

19710.421.51.96-1.96

19720.991.151.96-1.96

19730.41.651.96-1.96

19740.151.271.96-1.96

1975-0.330.871.96-1.96

1976-0.110.411.96-1.96

19770.270.431.96-1.96

19780.120.61.96-1.96

19790.30.21.96-1.96

19800.480.191.96-1.96

19810.460.151.96-1.96

19820.88-0.181.96-1.96

19831.210.251.96-1.96

19841.140.661.96-1.96

19850.920.321.96-1.96

19861.06-0.171.96-1.96

19871.49-0.341.96-1.96

19881.040.251.96-1.96

19891-0.451.96-1.96

19901.26-1.141.96-1.96

19911.64-1.261.96-1.96

19921.9-0.731.96-1.96

19932.15-0.271.96-1.96

19942.330.231.96-1.96

19952.350.631.96-1.96

19962.280.631.96-1.96

19972.630.491.96-1.96

19982.561.651.96-1.96

19992.291.691.96-1.96

20002.180.981.96-1.96

20012.3301.96-1.96

20022.59-0.521.96-1.96

20032.7211.96-1.96

20042.9201.96-1.96

mk.sst.pac.sm

Uf

Ub

22(a) SSTA (unit:) (b) 850 hPa (unit: ms-1), 10S-10N (a)(b)6

(a)(b)23 (a) (b)

119781978199221978

30N30N6012360-80502010-20202010-2020

2010-209924

2010-2099EOF2529

2010-209926

2010-2099-27

3 T-

2010-20192030-20392080-209928

(Webster and Yang Wang and Fang)(:(Lu and Chan)

2010-209929

2010-2099-850hPa100hPa30

850hPa2010-20192030-20392080-209931

2010-20192030-20392080-209932

2010-2099-33

2010-2099850hPa-34

850hPa2010-20192030-20392080-209935

850hPa850hPa36

SRES A1B2040s2040s

2040s-

SRES A1B

2040s

37

2080-209938

2080-209939

EOF(a)(c): EOF1(b)(d): EOF2