第 18 回　大阪府市エネルギー戦略会議

182012810

20203020

*

7.82198027.5200943.470km LNG 11LNG 2198048.5201055.9510012km 5.5 2010119

*

13,4202,134m3275m37.8198030 28,4701347m32198030 1.411008,0001342,00017361,3001,0004,00021010%

*

* 101158.987OPEC DOE/EIA 10

19801988199020032011166.5169.6258.0261.8262.668.594.597.196.5104.058.092.992.989.7137.031.0100.0100.0112.5115.029.498.198.197.897.8/67.059.057.060.060.06.86.86.1180.0175.229.826.826.321.920.731.348.656.412.610.417.956.358.577.8211.2(296.5)64288710001212

*100/DOE/EIA

1980199020002010201117.117.019.719.218.84.965.325.524.454.48OECD41.941.648.246.445.91.772.304.809.399.79OECD21.324.928.640.742.163.166.576.887.188.0

10100/198064264.027.5198888764.437.71990100066.441.32003121279.541.82009134284.743.4

5100 6,289Tcf178,000km370km 6001LNG 3,000m3 11LNG 2201162,000/t 8,370100TcfLNG 1301409900Tcf

*

* Tcf 100Tcf

198019902000201085.594.363.962.059.073.430.112.719916917727342.810114317659.561.162.55023.582.241.481.790015001700168039.639.065.085.010126566.265490500812104627.59511011233.554.652.763.595.718720526420.52012122146016330089935.258.51321141601592425.546.454.441.487.41241852535.348.31072487.072.21061751.981.78344.6832,5683,9655,1606,289

*TcfTcf

1980199020002010201119.919.223.223.824.411.213.417.420.6-0.510.490.903.774.620.902.032.913.723.9852.973.687.3112.6-

4,9808102,6108001,8407101,4506401,3805301,020490990480880

8,60012,000m2008112510,0008,600 1,9905.5119 1960198721650019992007112,80028002*

*200810012,000907100

260,60044,900173,10037,300126,30033,20084,2003,90066,800948,000

198019902000201020117039041,0841,0481,0031,4121,4821,040957-6791,1241,2393,6954,054123248403722788981271692062024,1255,2645,0427,995-

2 370,000Tcf *

*2010TWh

71450.82.34840128.726.625717967.89411022.12.02073.429.420.73.62.618.885.438.435.911.112.810.710.470.612.79.43.522.713.09.762.216.46.19.250.126.111.5841.852.34.541.56.33,14571429432827.9

19% 16,400TWh200918,980TWh86%

IEA16% 201518% 203017% 205014% 5,749TWh 88%80%70%69%68%61%25%24%16%10%

*

*2010TWhTWh

71473.440170.634862.225751.316550.111641.811035.776.020093,145

1990200020094025179023635466844745855602,1442,6193,145

*920012010141,1631,1771414462,760MW91,500MW91.8TWh9.15TWh

*

20012010TWh964.762.97.3616.51GWh91.0437.92513,924

GWGWMW200120102001201020012010933.835.3118.0122.50.50031.451.504.2629.847.31742,209

IEA2020671GW1,800TWh20301,000GW2,600TWh10% 20401,500GW4,000TWh20502,000GW650GW5,200TWh12% 1,400TWh20101,013TWh40*

IEA4032,00081047GW

2010205023% 2

*

*

20012010TWh964.762.97.3616.51GWh91.0437.92513,924

GWGWMW200120102001201020012010933.835.3118.0122.50.50031.451.504.2629.847.31742,209

98 2161003,924GWh50kW190% 101*

*

20062008201091155811kW930030013,3398,96013,05618,529MWh92703734,5315,79611,07717,392

53% 87% 74% 26%29% 26%3%

*2010TWh

15.675.099.434.308.502.526.395.5963.9

10110818380,0003,800km2

*1,000

20062010200620103358880.659.53075270.101.30.7038.10.906.559.4620.402.916.6552.618.50.4913.58401,856

CO2 1086450ppm 68.3m 2000201010CO2368ppm 389ppm 2039450ppm CO2

*

*TWhCO2100

1990200020103,0383,8024,1202,6873,1953,4448139881,0135901,2803,96511,29514,56618,9802009

1990200020105,0415,8615,6104,5464,4584,3701,0471,2011,1642,2702,8508,32121,61523,73831,780

*2000201021ppm2039450ppm

20102011

*

20109281990202040%203055%204070%205080~95%202020%205050%2008202010%205025%

202018% 203030%204045%205060%202035% 203050%204065%205080%

*

20116/75010HVDCCHPCombined Heat and Power PlantNearly Zero-Energy Building2050

*

Prof. Dr. Bruno Burger, Fraunhofer Institute201286*

Atom for PeaceMOX

*

199894.5TWh201056.0TWh45292001162.7TWh2010133.5TWh20118102.3TWh3692015201720191202120223

*

IAEA1998316TWh2003228TWh 2005290TWh300TWh2010274TWh20112002200432007

*

* TWh

198019902000201025157775480763.429839440778.6192306274/72.920112216232.362.580.856.043.71401611346841,9092,4502,620

*0.1% 2% ISLIn-Situ Leach30% 54070,00070~80201153,000

*130/kg

20082009156,4281,673,00031.0%126,900651,80012.1%485,300485,3009.0%139,735480,3008.9%156,312295,6005.5%284,2005.3%278,7005.2%110,312272,9005.0%363,640207,4003.8%171,4003.2%114,6002.1%111,8002.1%219,517110,4272,409,5915,404,000

*2011

19,45136%9,14517%5,98311%4,3518%3,2586%2,9936%2,5005%1,5373%8902%8852%53,494

130/kg260/kg5406301,0002,2000.003ppm4

*

1kg1305407,0205617368,3708,60020,0001262,080216% CAMECO5002490,0004,700*

UF61kg770,00055,0005100% *

*

tUMinatom25,000Cameco-Springfield18,500ConverDyn15,000ComurhexAREVA14,000CNNC3,000Ipen9075,590

0.7% 5% U-235U-238SWUSeperation Work UnitSWUSWU

*

*SWU

1,000SWUAtomenergoprom28,600--Urenco13,000USEC11,300EurodifAREVA10,800CNNC1,30065,000

50.15/U3O8 U-2350.711%6.50/kgUU-2350.25%SWU130/SWU4.5%9.0%18.0%36.0%9.21918.9838.5077.55SWU6.8716.6336.9978.742,161/kgU4,772/kgU10,104/kgU20,902/kgU

U-235UF6*

2000200810141LNG*

*1kWh/kWh

19952.053.164.360.8419961.974.034.800.7619971.894.134.370.7419981.813.583.170.7319991.754.033.640.6720001.717.015.960.6320011.746.985.410.5920021.714.215.040.5520031.686.006.030.5620041.746.125.790.5520051.947.838.330.5120062.026.669.280.5120072.066.429.740.5220082.307.6216.290.5220092.404.6010.720.5720102.454.4814.540.6720112.523.9819.330.68

20111kWh 0.680.5442%31%8% 15%4%

*

2000200810141LNG*

*

LWRBWRPWRLWGRPHWRCANDUHWLWRSGHWRGCRHTGRHWGCRLMGMRFBROCM

*LWRBWRPWRPHWRCANDUAGRU-235LWGRRBMKCANDULWR57514020114PWRBWR20104412011435

*14019

PWR38HTGR4GCR37HWGCR4BWR31HWLWR2LWGR9SGHWR1FBR7LMGMR1PHWR5OCM1

*43530

20102011201220127PWR269+1+1+2+1+1-4+2272BWR92-8-4-4084PHWR46+1047GCR18-1-215LWGR150015FBR1+102441-60435

*622611718PWRFBR216213

PWR50269232221111PHWR541BWR422FBR211LWGR1

BiscontiBBC World Service23201191,000216%257%42652005

*

*

423513412523394414331517392221313036374415291539231821213241183943213641164435152330155825123934937431133388325561253738523265565727

*20052011%

20054029202011394414200533372320113744152005255016201115582520052247262011738522005216115201165727

MOX*U-2350.7% 54038,000U-238MWD/tU GWD/t 1GWD = 1,000MWD = 86.4TJ 2,9902,260kLLNG 1,590PWR3BWR445GWD/t

*U-235U-23832 U-2351% MOXU-235U-23832045,00060,00050,0002

*U-238Pu-239U-240U-241U-242Pu-239Pu-241Pu-240Pu-24245GWD/tU35% MOX7% MOX45GWD/t MOXPu-240Pu-24245%

*MOX112% 2MOXMOX24%22% 3U-239U-240Pu-23970MOX15,000U-23523070,0003

*

32060,00045,00050,0007015,00023070,000195,000

*MOX158508.5810100MOX3231MOX402006Melox20074145195Sellafield1284020118J-MOX2015130Pu-239 > 90%MOXDOE2016

*MOX19631980MOX2,000200630PWR180103150% 900MWMOX3120141,383MW100% MOXEPRAP1000100% MOXMOX50% 50%

*MOXU-235SWUMOXMOXMOX71MOX35% Pu-239Pu-241Pu-240Pu-2424.5% MOX7~10%9.5%Pu-239>90%5%

*MOXMOX2505% MOXMOXLa Hague19922004MOX70MOX

*U-234U-2363%3.3%SWUMOX

*MOXPu-239Pu-24150%15%45GWD/tMOXPu-239Pu-24137%16%Pu-240Pu-24232%12%4%Pu-238Pu-239/241Pu-240/242Pu-24114Am-241>1MeV

*MOX200034MFFFMixed Oxide Fuel Fabrication Facility3.4MOXDukePWRCatawbaMcGuire4MOXBN-600BN-80020121.5MOX400MOXBN-8005

1kWh

*

*200312

*10001

*2700

920075.282.5015.651.760.564.430.730.312.1320085.682.5916.552.080.645.090.710.312.1020094.852.3714.681.190.353.020.710.322.1120105.202.5115.471.480.393.620.660.342.05

*

910TWh/kWh10TWh/kWh10TWh/kWh20014,97025719.32,43012219.914,74077119.120024,67025418.42,42012020.214,20078018.220034,61023419.72,27011719.413,72075318.220044,61026217.62,35011520.413,94078517.820054,73027017.52,27011619.614,12080317.620064,86027117.92,31012019.314,46081417.820075,46027320.02,45012819.115,60084118.520085,80026022.32,64012421.316,76080520.820094,75025218.82,28012318.514,26077618.420106,46026424.52,40013218.216,52081520.3

*LNG/t

20061~341,96020101~348,1704~641,1802~449,4707~943,7303~551,52010~1244,3404~651,850200642,8005~751,74020071~343,2706~850,5404~644,5407~950,0907~947,1308~1048,75010~1252,7209~1147,460200746,92010~1247,15020081~358,28011~2011147,7904~662,86012~2011249,3907~974,70020104949010~1273,11020111~351,280200867,2402~453,56020091~352,9903~555,4702~446,9504~658,1303~543,0605~761,7404~638,6106~864,7505~736,9107~966,1506~837,1908~1065,8007~938,4909~1166,2508~1040,26010~1266,7209~1142,16011~2012167,04010~1244,32012~2012266,37011~2010145,85020116194012~2010246,94020121~367,5502009428102~468,9703~570,770

*Source:U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on Thomson Reuters. Note:Brent is the underlying crude oil for the light sweet crude oil futures contracts on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). West Texas Intermediate (WTI) represents the spot price for crude oil at Cushing, Oklahoma, the physical delivery hub for NYMEX light sweet crude oil futures contracts.

99/914.715.4918.6200120101091089*

2010*

91.771.266.885.572.5418.085.322.4614.917.303.4119.363.401.639.925.392.4115.1929.3214.2287.73

*

GW/kW3,6501.23297,0007,2204.07177,0008,3002.07401,0005,1702.42214,00015,48011.29137,00013,7303.27420,00017,7508.98198,00055,69038.70144,00053,15017.31307,0009,8205.22188,00033,80023.97141,00014,5303.62401,000

*

GW/kW4,2901.90226,0008,2304.40187,0007,2101.75412,00012,5608.16154,00025,35016.91150,00024,5609.77251,0004,9102.91169,00015,0007.80192,0004,7401.28370,0002,8701.14252,0005,2903.80139,0006,7802.20308,000

*

GW/kW7743.28236,0001,47411.58127,0001,6125.26306,00096,87635.28195,00018,081122.50148,00014,91346.34322,000

2010*

911.536.1335.900.680.352.210.950.523.030.740.382.782.101.116.310.830.432.592.200.926.290.870.512.530.130.100.450.740.412.080.980.532.362.730.324.3214.266.4640.59

2006~*

TWh10kWh2002820077162001*

19981151262551999123128264200112212125720021499225420031814023420041559426220051571012702006146113271200719368273200818366260200916181252201016984264

TWh10kWh2004893*2200370TW

20013672122200227771202003227611720043760115200538651162006396612020075164128200850621242009436612320104967132

9TWh10kWh*300 TWh 200119982007

19973963017691998398311781199942131079920004263027982001403301771200243827678020034572217532004448262785200545328780320064592878142007532250841200849924780520094502667762010479271815

*

910TWh/kWh10TWh/kWh10TWh/kWh20014,97025719.32,43012219.914,74077119.120024,67025418.42,42012020.214,20078018.220034,61023419.72,27011719.413,72075318.220044,61026217.62,35011520.413,94078517.820054,73027017.52,27011619.614,12080317.620064,86027117.92,31012019.314,46081417.820075,46027320.02,45012819.115,60084118.520085,80026022.32,64012421.316,76080520.820094,75025218.82,28012318.514,26077618.420106,46026424.52,40013218.216,52081520.3

*1031041051061970198019902000201020127914,903

*1031041051061970198019902000201010-310-410-510-6!/

*1031041051061970198019902000201010-310-410-510-6

*19701980199020002010

*vs.Zion 1997

3100/1000

*6,500M12.2

*19371900190919281937973519201930

*19461961701957

*19751/20,000400501

*Norman Rasmussen Harold Lewis

*NUREG/CR-6042Zion 1/2 PWR3250MWt19731997 Zion

*6/15,0003/1,000

*NRCASPAccident Sequence PrecursorGSPGeneric Safety ProgramGeneric CommunicationINInformation NoticeGLGeneric LetterBulletinIPEIndividual Plant ExaminationIPEEEIndividual Plant Examination of External EventsIndustry Trend ProgramROPReactor Oversight ProgramR&D

*ASPAccident Sequence Precursor CCDP CCDP

CCDP > 1.0 x 10-6CCDP > 1.0 x 10-4CCDP > 1.0 x 10-3

1969201134TMI 21979CCDP = 1.0Browns Ferry 11975CCDP = 0.25Davis-Besse 2002CCDP = 0.006

*GSPGeneric Safety Program

TMI 52USI14286GSI203

*Generic CommunicationINInformation NoticeNRC 19792011101,89020001,58920012010282201119 1101986GLGeneric LetterNRC 197720111056519772000557200320088200920110BulletinGL 2011SBO

Mark-I Mark-II

*

* BWR 31ECCS

*1BWR/2428.23%18.54%

5730

*

50MOX

*

*

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第 18 回 大阪府市エネルギー戦略会議

Documents

第 18 回　大阪府市エネルギー戦略会議