詹姆士看天下 2015/05/18

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警語:本文提及之經濟走勢預測不必然代表基金之績效,基金投資風險請參閱基金公開說明書 警語:本文提及之經濟走勢預測不必然代表基金之績效,基金投資風險請參閱基金公開說明書 2015/05/18

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  1. 1. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 2015/05/18
  2. 2. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 124.26 108.55 59.52 37.26 54.80 2008 2014 () -34.64% -15.70% -36.09% -7.28% -21.11% -12.76% -9.52% -5.56% -18.82%-5.58% Bloomberg() 2014/12/312005/12/31 %
  3. 3. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. Bloomberg1bp=0.01% :2015/5/15 (%) (bp) (bp) (bp) 4.33 388 376 297 6.42 453 455 335 8.07 701 686 461 3.84 233 231 218 () () () () ()
  4. 4. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. : Bloomberg 2015/5/15 (%) 5.92 (&) 4.33 6.42 % % 8.07 -0.45 -0.21 -0.05 -0.04 0.13 0.15 0.36 0.37 0.56 0.86 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1
  5. 5. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.1 -1.0 -2 -1 0 1 2 5 : Bloomberg 2015/5/15 QE MSCI MSCI (%)
  6. 6. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 6 l l 4.7 -0.3 14.1 -4.0 3.0 0.5 1.0 0.4 4.7 2.8 2.4 2.3 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 -0.7 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 CRB (%) : Bloomberg 2015/5/15 119.25 $1224.06 2.142% $1.1451$59.69
  7. 7. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 4.2 2.4 1.8 1.8 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.3 -0.8 -1.2 -1.2 -1.9 -2.2 -3.1 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 7 : Bloomberg 2015/5/15 ==225= (%)
  8. 8. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (4.2%) (2.4%) (-3.1%) (-2.2%)
  9. 9. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 600QE 34 QE104200.075% 100% 2030 4 1050 2% 1% 2.99% 3 2015/5/11
  10. 10. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 10 35 10 100%3% ()4752(0.470.52) 4 2.6%4.5% () ( ) 0492 ()
  11. 11. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 4 31.4%1.5% 4.6%54 16.2%6.2% 5113% 59 70 55.3%20105 2015/5/12 - 0302 () () 0404 () - 4220 () 4202 ()
  12. 12. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. Bloomberg
  13. 13. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. ()Bloomberg : 2015/5/15()
  14. 14. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. () Bloomberg : 2015/5/15()
  15. 15. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. : Bloomberg 4CPI 5/18() 4 102 92.6 5/19() 5ZEW 49 53.3 7.5 7.5 5/20() 1GDP 0.4% 0.4% 7.5 7.5 5/21() 4 522 519 4 0.2 0.2 5PMI 51.7 52.0 5 -4.8 -4.6 5 49.4 48.9 5/22() 4CPI 0.1 0.2 5IFO 108.1 108.6
  16. 16. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 310 1.1 3100.393.45 9 5325% 60 OPECOPEC 1220
  17. 17. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (60%) QE 1.2% 4 (40%) 6 (2015/5/18)
  18. 18. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 440.4 0.2PPI1.3%0.8% PPI0.1% TPATPP(TPA) TPA TPA12
  19. 19. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 15.7% 6.8%5.53.5183 1.92.2 2008 19 35.9
  20. 20. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 5000 220 220 21 723373 2.8(233 2.31985 4
  21. 21. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 51412 GDP1.2%
  22. 22. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 4 0.0% 0.2 0.9 4 -0.4% 0.1 0.2 4 -0.3% 0.0% -0.6% 5 88.6 96.0 95.9 0.5% 0.5 0.5 1GDP 1.0% 1.2 1.4 4CPI 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 1GDP() 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% 5ILO(3) 5.5% 5.5% 5.6% : Bloomberg
  23. 23. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 3 2.1% 3.0% 5.0% 4 0.7 0.9 1.18 4M2 10.1% 11.9% 11.6% 4 10% 10.4% 10.2% 4 6.2% 6.3% 6.4% 1.75% 1.75% 1.75% 3() 2.79 2.06 1.44 3() 0.4% 1.4% -3.1% 5() 1.2% 0.5% 0.7% 4CPI() -1.1% -1.2% -1.5% 3() -49.6 -43.0 -32.0 : Bloomberg
  24. 24. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) MSCI 1807.06 0.69 2.15 2.73 4.56 5.70 7.33 2122.73 0.31 2.00 1.10 3.46 3.10 13.04 1243.95 0.73 -0.63 1.30 6.29 3.26 12.79 396.45 -0.93 -1.79 4.23 16.84 15.74 16.95 274.18 0.36 0.33 6.16 22.45 18.75 21.25 225 19732.92 1.83 0.41 8.43 13.77 13.08 39.98 4825.07 0.88 0.76 7.82 16.21 9.88 41.57 4308.69 2.44 0.50 32.70 75.41 33.20 112.62 MSCI 1043.40 0.82 0.07 5.93 5.54 9.11 1.11 MSCI 506.09 0.59 -2.04 6.57 10.65 10.63 10.21 MSCI 351.75 2.54 8.87 9.55 -0.98 18.61 -14.72 MSCI 2765.80 0.75 5.77 4.46 -5.80 1.40 -18.36 MSCI 299.59 1.79 3.84 4.78 -1.64 10.64 -8.73 Bloomberg 121.85 -0.04 -1.38 -0.17 1.61 0.58 3.34 Bloomberg 132.40 -0.21 -1.58 -0.95 0.62 0.06 3.91 Bloomberg 137.96 -0.05 -1.90 -0.32 1.80 0.90 2.90 Bloomberg 151.25 0.56 1.85 2.72 0.74 3.37 -1.08 Bloomberg 156.86 0.15 0.57 2.85 2.04 4.68 2.00 Bloomberg 163.75 0.36 -0.19 1.46 3.16 3.07 4.01 ETF 48.77 0.37 0.35 2.26 1.29 4.01 3.68 Bloomberg 146.48 0.13 0.15 2.93 2.06 4.01 3.73 Bloomberg 127.04 0.86 1.04 0.76 0.24 2.11 1.63 Bloomberg 151.17 -0.45 -1.41 0.20 3.10 2.50 6.81 Bloomberg 2015/5/15
  25. 25. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) 1.1451 2.25 7.18 0.85 -8.02 -5.35 -16.48 119.25 0.43 -0.09 -0.65 -2.18 0.44 -14.82 1.5727 1.76 5.96 2.37 0.55 0.96 -6.33 0.9162 1.52 5.27 1.71 5.32 8.52 -2.75 1.2014 0.47 2.30 3.76 -5.88 -3.27 -9.40 0.8034 1.29 4.58 3.36 -7.74 -1.72 -14.13 1085.65 0.25 1.04 1.53 0.76 0.49 -5.56 30.4490 0.81 2.72 3.19 0.77 3.96 -0.88 6.2065 0.05 -0.02 0.69 -1.28 -0.02 0.37 13084.00 0.28 -1.37 -2.53 -6.71 -5.32 -12.51 63.5163 0.66 -1.80 -2.13 -2.80 -0.74 -6.65 33.4830 0.21 -3.14 -2.67 -2.04 -1.71 -2.88 1.3207 0.59 2.75 2.74 -1.67 0.36 -5.17 3.5645 0.94 3.97 0.45 -6.10 -1.89 -9.50 44.4650 0.42 0.18 -0.49 0.96 0.57 -1.82 11.7974 1.01 2.26 -1.27 -5.63 -1.92 -11.79 2.5754 4.48 4.80 -4.62 -13.37 -9.33 -18.52 49.5320 2.71 0.40 27.60 -4.71 22.62 -29.81 3.5298 2.31 6.68 4.24 -3.91 0.39 -13.35 267.47 0.92 5.04 1.07 -7.97 -2.18 -16.43 3.8785 2.17 6.72 0.92 -8.15 -4.55 -16.60 2.9969 -0.75 1.06 -5.41 -12.95 -11.32 -25.94 15.0077 0.75 1.78 -0.55 -9.45 -1.71 -13.65 8.9464 -0.21 -0.90 -2.95 -4.86 -5.38 -9.95 : Bloomberg 2015/5/15
  26. 26. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) () (bp) 30 2.9292 2.9 39.0 28.1 -12.0 17.7 -39.5 10 2.1424 -0.5 25.4 9.2 -17.8 -2.9 -34.7 0.4040 -1.7 7.5 -2.0 -7.9 7.5 -19.1 0.6240 7.7 51.7 28.2 -16.1 8.3 -68.2 0.6240 7.7 51.7 28.2 -16.1 8.3 -68.2 0.9010 6.5 54.8 25.6 -23.8 7.5 -86.2 1.7710 9.5 50.8 16.4 -57.5 -11.9 -133.2 1.7320 6.7 46.8 18.1 -39.4 12.1 -128.8 2.2870 0.4 58.0 -9.9 -90.4 -40.0 -141.2 2.8370 13.8 56.9 65.6 23.2 31.9 -92.7 9.0000 -33.0 19.0 138.0 43.0 98.0 -38.0 10.4746 6.4 8.0 -132.5 23.7 -253.2 144.7 3.6100 -9.0 37.0 58.0 -8.0 1.0 -119.0 7.9760 -11.7 17.3 42.1 10.5 0.7 -10.1 12.4460 -24.8 -4.2 -19.3 -48.7 8.2 2.1 5.8990 -2.1 19.1 23.4 -2.7 5.5 2.4 2.5070 10.8 38.0 11.0 -26.8 -9.8 -87.3 7.9810 -20.7 59.5 48.6 4.5 18.5 3.5 * 7.9450 -3.8 16.2 24.7 -27.2 8.8 -84.2 9 2.8640 8.8 20.1 10.3 -44.0 13.5 -60.6 : Bloomberg 2015/5/15
  27. 27. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) () MSCI 241.29 -0.98 -0.97 -0.19 -6.77 1.46 -17.73 MSCI 240.30 0.88 4.74 1.12 3.82 7.73 -2.54 MSCI 107.29 0.66 2.51 3.84 3.95 4.41 6.11 MSCI 201.64 0.49 2.14 3.57 11.27 8.29 16.03 MSCI 210.10 1.15 1.17 1.86 4.27 5.09 6.35 MSCI 209.43 1.08 2.26 1.84 4.12 5.07 4.15 MSCI 149.11 1.01 3.92 2.32 6.09 5.54 20.54 MSCI 72.60 0.08 3.01 2.08 0.83 6.20 0.25 MSCI 119.53 0.82 1.90 1.90 -2.18 -2.87 0.04 MSCI 220.61 0.97 1.19 5.32 8.91 10.37 21.50 NBI 3723.82 1.07 -0.18 8.11 20.64 17.19 56.11 AMEX 181.26 3.00 2.58 -3.76 0.16 10.50 -16.48 REITs FTSE 14366.81 0.58 -0.58 -4.22 4.22 0.83 12.62 REITs FTSE 1747.35 0.66 -0.70 -4.76 4.53 0.65 12.72 REITs FTSE 1500.15 1.83 -1.00 3.64 24.32 19.71 33.61 REITs FTSE 1567.37 2.17 0.50 -0.49 4.44 3.05 7.68 (/) 1224.06 3.00 1.79 -0.44 2.97 3.31 -5.56 (/) 17.51 6.31 7.09 1.34 8.41 11.42 -10.25 (/) 6415.00 0.43 7.72 11.86 -4.33 1.83 -6.83 (/) 66.81 2.17 10.76 8.60 -15.87 16.54 -39.51 (/) 59.69 0.51 5.85 13.09 -21.27 12.05 -41.19 CRB 231.46 1.00 3.35 1.84 -12.93 0.65 -24.34 890.99 1.01 1.06 -4.14 -7.92 -7.63 -22.39 : Bloomberg 2015/5/15
  28. 28. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. / (02)770-88888 6633 (03)620-5699 897 (04)3700-7988 360171 (07)972-1188 39 Copyright2015EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.
  29. 29. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.