詹姆士看天下 2015/06/29

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警語:本文提及之經濟走勢預測不必然代表基金之績效,基金投資風險請參閱基金公開說明書 警語:本文提及之經濟走勢預測不必然代表基金之績效,基金投資風險請參閱基金公開說明書 2015/06/29

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  1. 1. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 2015/06/29
  2. 2. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 124.26 108.55 59.52 37.26 54.80 2008 2014 () -34.64% -15.70% -36.09% -7.28% -21.11% -12.76% -9.52% -5.56% -18.82%-5.58% Bloomberg() 2014/12/312005/12/31 %
  3. 3. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. Bloomberg1bp=0.01% :2015/6/26 (%) (bp) (bp) (bp) 4.69 435 405 297 6.72 473 465 335 8.53 748 718 461 4.03 235 227 218 () () () () ()
  4. 4. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. : Bloomberg 2015/6/26 (%) 6.10 (&) 4.69 6.72 % % 8.53 -4.33 -3.27 -2.87 -2.71 -1.24 -1.18 -0.70 -0.31 -0.02 0.28 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1
  5. 5. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 1.1 1.0 0.6 -0.1 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -1.5 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.0 -0.2 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -1.4 -2 -1 0 1 2 5 : Bloomberg 2015/6/26 MSCI MSCI (%)
  6. 6. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 6 l l 9.5 22.6 11.1 -2.1 0.0 1.2 1.7 1.1 -0.1-0.3-0.5-0.9-0.9-1.0-1.2-1.4-1.5-1.5-1.6-1.7 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 CRB (%) : Bloomberg 2015/6/26 123.85 $1175.55 2.473% $1.1167 $59.63
  7. 7. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 5.1 4.9 4.1 2.6 2.6 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.7 -0.9 -1.2 -2.5 -12.4 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 7 : Bloomberg 2015/6/26 ==225= (%)
  8. 8. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (5.1%4.9%4.1%) GDP (-12.4%)IPO
  9. 9. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 9 621 24 62526 IMF 72 62% 22%16% 19 2223(ELA) 42 (2011)(2013) 2015/6/25 CNBC 2015/6/22
  10. 10. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 10 Bloomberg 2015/6/22 *20151.6% ( )2011 6900 * 28% ()4 7.5%4 1012,37461710,978 6 4 () ()2015/6/24 Bloomberg 2015/6/23
  11. 11. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 11 ()600 Bloomberg 2015/6/23 8925() 2663()
  12. 12. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 12 12%5 602.4W 644 5FTA FTA TPP TPP FTA 7145 61990 100 FDI FDI 22% 2895 43 1 6.0356 1 4314 9.4%900 3.6 56 9624200() 2
  13. 13. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 13 W bloomberg 2013/6/25~2015/6/25 vs 303 20~30 2% ()FTSE () ()2015/6/25 bloomberg 2015/6/25
  14. 14. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. Bloomberg
  15. 15. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. ()Bloomberg : 2015/6/26()
  16. 16. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. () Bloomberg : 2015/6/26()
  17. 17. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. : Bloomberg ADP ISM 6/29() 6CPI 0.5% 0.7% 6/30() 6 50.0 46.2 6 96.7 95.4 6CPI 0.2% - 7/1() 6ADP 20.5 20.1 5 0.5% 2.2% 6ISM 53.0 52.8 6 - -19.5% 7/2 () 6 22.5 28.0 6 5.4% 5.5% 5 0.0% -0.4% 7/3() 5 0.1 0.7
  18. 18. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 75 ELA 7 IMF 212 ; 50.9%62 9 60 630 2009
  19. 19. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (60%) QE 18 IPO NBI (40%) (2015/6/29)
  20. 20. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 50.90.7 6 TPATPP-TPA , TPP TPPTPP TPP ELA30 IMF7
  21. 21. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 2015628 0.5 0.5 3 +624 11 25CPI 0.1% 523 1.191.1941.17
  22. 22. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 22 124 1 237.5%
  23. 23. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 5 535 528 504 5 -1.8% -0.7% -0.5% 5 54.6 52.3 51.7 2015GDP -0.2% -0.2% -0.7% 5() 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 5() 0.9% 0.7% 0.0% 6 96.1 94.6 94.6 6PMI 53.4 54.1 51.7 -5.6 -5.8 -5.5 6PMI 52.5 52.2 52.2 6PMI 51.9 51.2 51.1 6IFO 107.4 108.1 108.5 5M3() 5.0% 5.4% 5.3% : Bloomberg
  24. 24. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 6CPI 0.5% 0.4% 0.6% 6 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% Markit6PMI 50.5 49.9 50.9 PMI 49.6 49.4 49.2 6CPI() 1.00% 0.86% 0.95% 6() 9.3% 9.8% 7.3% 7.5 7.5% 7.5% 1(GDP%) -4.8% -5.1% -5.1% 5 3.081 3.077 3.061 5 6.7% 6.6% 6.4% 5 33.66 46 6.9 5 66.08 42 57.77 : Bloomberg
  25. 25. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) MSCI 1776.22 0.41 -0.17 1.80 2.57 3.89 2.03 2101.49 0.98 -0.28 1.96 0.52 2.07 7.17 1279.79 2.23 2.67 3.18 4.98 6.23 7.59 396.85 -1.69 -0.76 0.33 15.27 15.86 16.05 273.33 0.02 -0.71 3.13 18.54 18.39 17.68 225 20706.15 5.36 0.70 7.37 16.79 18.65 37.17 5064.12 5.75 3.37 8.88 15.63 15.32 36.52 4192.87 -2.20 -9.08 13.59 32.35 29.62 105.89 MSCI 980.63 -5.95 -2.35 2.35 2.29 2.54 -6.27 MSCI 480.11 -7.07 -3.78 1.65 5.02 4.95 2.61 MSCI 312.93 -3.14 -2.31 4.92 2.50 5.52 -28.29 MSCI 2544.65 -2.68 1.93 5.81 -6.75 -6.71 -24.53 MSCI 277.01 -3.98 0.12 2.42 0.60 2.30 -17.04 Bloomberg 120.20 -2.87 -1.38 -2.09 -0.30 -0.79 2.00 Bloomberg 130.15 -3.27 -1.94 -2.71 -1.44 -1.64 1.51 Bloomberg 134.76 -4.33 -2.15 -3.13 -0.91 -1.43 0.24 Bloomberg 149.26 0.28 -0.54 1.50 2.03 2.01 -3.56 Bloomberg 155.49 -0.31 -0.94 1.29 3.90 3.77 -0.36 Bloomberg 162.33 -0.70 -1.03 -0.21 2.21 2.17 2.17 ETF 48.07 -0.02 -2.40 0.92 -0.65 2.52 -1.83 Bloomberg 144.37 -1.18 -1.62 0.65 2.52 2.51 0.65 Bloomberg 124.75 -1.24 -0.76 -0.39 0.45 0.26 -1.43 Bloomberg 149.00 -2.71 -1.96 -2.17 1.21 1.03 6.19 Bloomberg 2015/6/26
  26. 26. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) 1.1167 3.34 2.70 2.60 -8.34 -7.70 -17.96 123.85 -4.16 -0.61 -3.76 -2.86 -3.29 -17.86 1.5746 5.24 2.35 6.04 1.21 1.08 -7.52 0.9333 1.97 2.15 3.18 5.81 6.54 -4.25 1.2321 -0.61 0.92 1.31 -5.63 -5.68 -13.25 0.7655 -1.63 -1.03 -2.21 -5.74 -6.36 -18.68 1116.44 -3.03 -1.38 -0.78 -1.59 -2.28 -8.97 30.9310 0.34 -0.88 1.04 2.61 2.34 -3.18 6.2094 -0.19 -0.09 0.03 0.06 -0.06 0.25 13308.00 -3.56 -0.66 -2.18 -6.76 -6.91 -9.08 63.6425 -2.05 0.53 -1.53 -0.12 -0.94 -5.50 33.7800 -4.43 -0.15 -3.62 -2.56 -2.58 -3.85 1.3498 -0.29 0.02 1.54 -1.97 -1.80 -7.45 3.7680 -3.97 -3.68 -2.81 -7.36 -7.18 -14.58 45.0820 -1.98 -0.80 -0.76 -0.85 -0.80 -2.70 12.2014 -1.11 -0.96 -1.67 -4.95 -5.17 -12.85 2.6646 0.52 -0.86 -2.59 -12.98 -12.37 -20.23 54.8064 -5.47 -7.23 4.60 -2.38 10.82 -38.48 3.7375 -0.27 2.12 0.39 -3.92 -5.19 -18.39 279.56 -0.34 1.73 -1.47 -6.85 -6.41 -18.91 3.9945 2.37 2.65 1.86 -8.16 -7.32 -19.30 3.1293 -2.91 0.77 1.72 -14.70 -15.07 -29.80 15.5582 -1.45 -1.68 -2.67 -5.41 -5.19 -16.33 9.0781 -2.38 -1.12 -2.99 -5.81 -6.75 -10.43 : Bloomberg 2015/6/26
  27. 27. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) () (bp) 30 3.2402 72.1 34.2 66.0 42.4 48.8 -11.6 10 2.4726 60.7 33.4 48.3 22.3 30.1 -5.6 0.4700 16.2 4.7 14.1 14.0 14.1 -10.2 0.9220 84.4 37.5 70.7 33.3 38.1 -32.3 0.9220 84.4 37.5 70.7 33.3 38.1 -32.3 1.2970 92.7 44.3 80.2 40.0 47.1 -38.7 2.1500 67.2 21.2 83.8 16.5 26.0 -69.5 2.1100 65.6 24.3 84.4 38.2 49.9 -53.2 2.7180 70.2 18.2 93.5 0.4 3.1 -77.3 3.2330 93.2 27.1 93.2 72.5 71.5 -19.6 9.3400 39.0 3.0 79.0 145.0 132.0 45.0 10.8883 21.9 47.2 -90.1 -214.3 -211.9 243.7 3.8300 55.0 33.0 58.0 23.0 23.0 -42.0 8.2920 43.6 12.3 53.6 22.8 32.3 -2.5 12.5950 0.5 23.6 -56.7 16.1 23.1 63.8 6.1480 41.6 22.5 30.8 22.5 30.4 46.6 2.4960 38.1 0.1 31.9 -15.4 -10.9 -70.9 8.3210 78.8 15.8 101.8 43.8 52.5 3.3 * 7.8140 1.8 14.0 1.6 -16.7 -4.3 -91.8 9 2.9580 46.5 15.5 26.1 13.2 22.9 -84.9 : Bloomberg 2015/6/26
  28. 28. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) () MSCI 227.29 -6.71 -2.08 0.29 -5.80 -4.42 -26.55 MSCI 228.28 -0.50 -1.89 0.49 1.62 2.34 -9.10 MSCI 106.58 1.83 1.29 3.37 2.60 3.72 2.42 MSCI 202.39 2.52 1.35 3.08 7.84 8.69 11.39 MSCI 204.93 -1.32 -0.15 0.17 1.19 2.51 3.30 MSCI 203.45 -0.66 -0.86 0.14 0.76 2.07 -1.11 MSCI 145.69 1.53 -2.08 1.65 1.34 3.12 11.25 MSCI 72.25 2.51 1.26 3.39 4.24 5.69 -0.34 MSCI 113.74 -3.03 -4.07 -4.07 -10.13 -7.57 -8.78 MSCI 222.50 2.05 0.83 2.72 9.91 11.31 17.96 NBI 3898.94 4.52 2.02 7.23 20.93 22.70 45.34 AMEX 152.24 -13.84 -8.74 -8.41 -3.85 -7.18 -35.65 REITs FTSE 13676.77 -5.35 -2.66 -7.38 -5.61 -4.01 5.65 REITs FTSE 1652.93 -6.06 -3.04 -8.45 -6.40 -4.79 5.24 REITs FTSE 1454.32 -4.02 -1.83 -3.32 16.02 16.05 24.31 REITs FTSE 1489.87 -4.47 -1.89 -4.78 -2.90 -2.04 -2.37 (/) 1175.55 -2.39 -0.99 -2.43 -1.71 -0.79 -10.71 (/) 15.81 -2.85 -5.67 -7.64 -1.63 0.62 -25.11 (/) 5755.00 -5.03 -5.76 -6.79 -8.68 -8.65 -17.25 (/) 63.26 -0.30 -0.72 6.88 6.41 10.34 -44.12 (/) 59.63 6.98 2.76 15.94 8.95 11.94 -43.66 CRB 224.88 0.42 0.76 4.52 -3.59 -2.21 -27.65 925.17 5.16 6.89 3.05 -6.02 -4.09 -15.92 : Bloomberg 2015/6/26
  29. 29. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. / (02)770-88888 6633 (03)620-5699 897 (04)3700-7988 360171 (07)972-1188 39 Copyright2015EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.
  30. 30. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.