경제주평 2018년 한국 경제 전망 170929 -...

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2018년 한국 경제 전망 - 2%대 성장률 고착 17-39(통권 764호) 2017.09.29

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  • 2018

    - 2%

    17-39( 764) 2017.09.29

  • v

    2018

    - 2%

    Executive Summary

    1. 1

    2. 9

    3. 2018 13

    4. 18

    , .

    :

    :

    (2072-6235, [email protected])

    (2072-6214, [email protected])

    (2072-6220,[email protected] ) 5

  • EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

    i

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    Executive Summary

  • EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

    ii

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    2018

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    < 2018 >

    20162017 2018(E)

    (E) (E)

    (%) 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.4 2.6 2.5 (%) 2.5 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.3 (%) 10.7 9.4 2.1 5.5 0.4 0.6 0.1 (%) 2.3 15.9 5.2 10.4 3.4 5.6 4.5

    (%) 5.9 15.7 12.0 13.8 5.0 6.0 5.5 (%) 3.7 4.1 3.5 3.8 4.0 3.6 3.8 (%) 1.0 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.1 1.9 2.0

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  • 2018

    1

    1.

    ( ) 2017 2 ,

    - 2017 2 0.6%( 2.7%) 11.1% 0.5%p

    2 2.9% ,

    1 6.8% 2 0.3%

    GDP() 1

    0.4% 2 1.0%

    -

    4

    : 17.4 101.0p, 5 100.8p, 6 100.7p, 7 100.7p, 8 100.8p

    : 17.4 101.0p, 5 101.2p, 6 101.6p, 7 101.8p, 8 101.8p

    < > < >

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  • 2018

    2

    ( )

    -

    (YoY): 17.4 2.6%, 5 1.4%, 6 1.1%, 7 3.5%, 8 0.8%

    (YoY): 17.4 5.8%, 5 6.2%, 6 1.6%, 7 11.8%, 8 5.6%

    -

    4, 5

    7

    (YoY): 17.4 3.0%, 5 6.6%, 6 6.9%, 712.4%, 8 2.5%

    (YoY): 17.4 3.0%, 5 2.3%, 6 10.0%, 7 0.9%, 8 11.7%

    < > < >

    : . : . : 6 .

  • 2018

    3

    ( ) 3

    -

    8 13.2% 7(25.1%)

    (YoY): 17.4 14.3%, 5 20.0%, 6 18.6%, 725.1%, 8 13.2%

    2 (7 5.1% 8 0.3%)

    (MoM): 17.4 3.9%, 5 2.2%, 6 4.8%, 7 5.1%, 8 0.3%

    -

    16

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  • 2018

    4

    ( )

    -

    8 12.7% 7(17.5%)

    (YoY): 17.4 24.4%, 5 20.4%, 6 12.7%, 7 17.5% 8 12.7%

    8 22.5%

    9.3%

    (YoY): 17.5 4.4%, 6 3.4%, 7 0.6%, 8 9.3%

    (YoY): 17.5 29.2%, 6 23.8%, 7 26.0% 8 22.5%

    - ()

    ,

    () 8 3.4% 2

    (YoY): 17.4 34.2%, 5 18.3%, 6 0.4%, 729.5%, 8 3.4%

    (YoY): 17.5 30.1%, 6 74.7%, 7 31.4%, 8 6.2%

    (YoY): 17.5 33.3%, 6 14.7%, 7 22.2%, 8 2.7%

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  • 2018

    5

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    : 17.4 23.8%, 5 13.1%, 6 13.4%, 7 19.5%, 8 17.3%

    : 17.4 8.4%, 5 6.3%, 6 2.0%, 7 1.3%, 8 8.2%

    - 8

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    : 17. 5 7.3%, 6 4.9%, 7 6.5%, 8 15.5% 8 23.5%, EU 43.1%,

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  • 2018

    6

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    - 8 (16 8) 8

    1)2017 8 3.6% 3.6% , 8

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    () 20 40

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    (YoY): 17.4 42.4, 5 37.5, 6 30.1, 7 31.3, 8 21.2

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  • 2018

    7

    ( ) 3

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    7

    8 9.0% 7 5.5%

    (YoY): 17.4 9.2%, 5 4.1%, 6 2.0%, 7 5.5%, 8 9.0%

    8 3.2% 7 3.0%

    (YoY): 17.4 3.8%, 5 3.4%, 6 2.8%, 7 3.0%, 8 3.2%

    - , ,

    9 2.1% 8 2.6%

    (YoY): 17.4 1.9%, 5 2.0%, 6 1.9%, 7 2.2%, 8 2.6%, 9 2.1%

    9 2) 2.9% 8 3.7%

    (YoY): 17.4 2.5%, 5 2.5%, 6 2.3%, 7 3.1%, 8 3.7%, 9 2.9%

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  • 2018

    8

    ( )

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    CSI

    2017 1 50p 80p

    CSI: 17.5 82p, 6 93p, 7 96p, 8 93p, 9 87p CSI 5

    CSI: 17.5 111p, 6 112p, 7 109p, 8 104p, 9 96p

    -

    BSI() 6 ,

    BSI: 17.5 91.7p, 6 99.1p, 7 95.6p, 8 92.4p, 9 94.4p, 10 92.3p

    BSI() 80p

    BSI: 17.5 81p, 6 82p, 7 78p, 8 78p, 9 80p, 10 79p

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  • 2018

    9

    2.

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    < >(%)

    20152016 2017

    1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 1/4 2/4

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    2.6 0.6 2.2 2.8 1.8 1.6 1.2 3.0

    2.0 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.8 0.5 0.6

    1.1 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.4 1.0 0.4 1.0

    4.3 - - - - 4.3 - -

    6.9 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.7 6.9 6.9

    8.0 9.1 7.9 7.5 7.0 7.1 6.1 5.7

    3.8 5.4 3.6 2.9 2.5 3.6 0.4 0.3

    2.8 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.5 2.5

    ASEAN-5 4.9 - - - - 4.9 - -

    2.6 - - - - 2.3 - -

    1) (IMF. World Economic Outlook. 2017 7).

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  • 2018

    10

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    (%)

    2017(E) 2018(E)

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    3.5 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.6 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.5 2.5 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5

    4.6 4.5 4.5 4.8 4.8 4.8 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.2 6.0 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.7 7.7 7.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 1.3 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.2ASEAN-5 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.2 5.2 5.2

    4.0 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.1

    : IMF.

  • 2018

    11

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    2015 20162017 2018(E)

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    WTI 48.8 43.5 50.0 47.8 48.9 48.0 51.2 49.6

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  • 2018

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    2017 6 12 2017 6 12 2017 6 12

    0.90 0.84 0.83 111.9 113.7 110.3 6.81 6.70 6.73

    - 0.87 0.87 - 120.0 125.0 - 7.05 7.10

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  • 2018

    13

    3. 2018

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    2018 2.4%, 2.2%, 2.3%

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  • 2018

    14

    - : 0%

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    (E) (E)

    (%) 10.7 9.4 2.1 5.5 0.4 0.6 0.1

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    2018 3.4%, 5.6%, 4.5%

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    20162017 2018(E)

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    (%) 2.3 15.9 5.2 10.4 3.4 5.6 4.5

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    < 2018 >

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    (E) (E)

    ( ) 987 363 367 730 330 350 680

    ( ) 892 449 493 942 413 438 851

    (%) 5.9 15.7 12.0 13.8 5.0 6.0 5.5

    (%) 6.9 21.3 10.5 15.6 7.5 9.6 8.5

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  • 2018

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  • 2018

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    < 2018 (2017.9) >

    20162017 2018(E)

    (E) (E)

    (%) 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.4 2.6 2.5

    (%) 2.5 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.3

    (%) 10.7 9.4 2.1 5.5 0.4 0.6 0.1

    (%) 2.3 15.9 5.2 10.4 3.4 5.6 4.5

    ( ) 987 363 367 730 330 350 680

    ( ) 892 449 493 942 413 438 851

    (%) 5.9 15.7 12.0 13.8 5.0 6.0 5.5

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    (%) 3.7 4.1 3.5 3.8 4.0 3.6 3.8

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  • 2018

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  • 2018

    22

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    2018

    ([email protected], 02-2072-6235)

    ([email protected], 02-2072-6214)

    ([email protected], 02-2072-6220)

    ([email protected], 02-2072-6217)

    ([email protected], 02-2072-6247)

    ([email protected], 02-2072-6239)

    ([email protected], 02-2072-6211)

    ([email protected],02-2072-6240)