概率论与数理统计第 24 讲

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概率论与数理统计第 24 讲. 本讲义可在网址 http://math.shekou.com 或 ftp://math.shekou.com 下载. 第八章 方差分析与回归分析. § 8.1 单因素试验的方差分析. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • 24http://math.shekou.comftp://math.shekou.com

  • 8.1

  • , , . , , , , ; , , , , , , , , . , , .

  • , , . . , (, , , ); ().

  • . , , , ; , . , A,B,C,, , A1,A2,.

  • 1 , . , . :

  • , , , . , , , ., . , .

  • , Ar, A1,A2,,Ar, Ai(i=1,2,,r), , r, :(1) ;(2) ;(3) .

  • , , , imi, H0: m1=m2==mr.H1: m1,m2,,mr.H1.

  • Ai(i=1,2,,r), ni,

    ,

    .

    :

    (1) rN(i,2) (i=1,2,,r);

    (2) 1,2,,r,2.

    _1211872623.unknown

    _1211872669.unknown

  • , Ai

  • ST

  • ()SA()SEST=SA+SE(1.4)

  • , SESAST=SA+SEH0, XijN(m,s2), , :(1) ST/s2~c2(n-1);(2) SE/s2~c2(n-r);(3) SA/s2~c2(r-1).(4) SESA.

  • , , , r, H0. , , F, H0, F~(r-1,n-r).

  • F~(r-1,n-r)a, Fa(r-1,n-r), (1) F>Fa(r-1,n-r), H0, A;(2) F
  • F

    A

    SA

    r1

    E

    SE

    nr

    T

    ST

    n1

    _1211894816.unknown

    _1211894882.unknown

    _1211894783.unknown

  • 8.2

  • , . , . . , , . ..

  • , A,B, ArA1,A2,,Ar, BsB1,B2,,Bs. A,B(Ai,Bj), (i=1,2,,r,j=1,2,,s), rsXij,

  • BA

    B1B2BsA1X11X12X1sA2X21X22X2sArXr1Xr2Xrs

  • 1. , :(1) Xij~N(mij,s2), mij, s2, i=1,,r;j=1,,s.(2) ;(3) Xij, i=1,,r;j=1,,s

  • , , H0A: m1j=m2j==mrjj=1,,s,H0B: mi1=mi2==misi=1,,r.H1A: m1j,m2j,,mrj.H1B: mi1,mi2,,mis.

  • 2.

  • :A:B::ST=SA+SB+SE,

  • H0A,H0B, (1) ST/s2, SA/s2, SB/s2, SE/s2rs-1, r-1, s-1, (r-1)(s-1)c2.(2) SA,SB,SE.(3)

  • 3. a, H0AFAFa(r-1,(r-1)(s-1));H0BFBFa(s-1,(r-1)(s-1));

  • F

    A

    SA

    r1

    B

    SB

    s1

    SE

    (r1)(s1)

    ST

    rs1

    _1211920101.unknown

    _1211920262.unknown

    _1211920397.unknown

    _1211920170.unknown

    _1211919982.unknown

  • , A,B. ArA1,A2,,Ar, BsB1,B2,,Bs. A,B(Ai,Bj), (i=1,2,,r, j=1,2,,s)t(t2)(), rstXijk (i=1,,r; j=1,,s; k=1,,t).

  • Xijk, Xijk~N(mij,s2),, mijmij=m+ai+bj+gij(i=1,,r; j=1,,s),aiAi, bijBj, gijAiBj.

  • :H0A: a1=a2==ar=0.H1A: a1,a2,,ar.H0B: b1=b2==bs=0.H1B: b1,b2,,bs.H0AB: g11=g12==grs=0,H1AB: g11,g12,,grs.

  • 2. :

  • ST::ST=SE+SA+SB+SAB

  • , H0A,H0B, H0AB, (1) ST/s2, SA/s2, SB/s2, SAB/s2,SE/s2rst-1, r-1, s-1, (r-1)(s-1), rs(t-1)c2(2) SA,SB,SAB,SE.

  • 3. H0A, a, H0AFAFa(r-1,rs(t-1))

  • H0B, a, H0BFBFa(s-1,rs(t-1))

  • H0AB, a, H0ABFABFa((r-1)(s-1),rs(t-1))

  • F

    A

    SA

    r-1

    B

    SB

    s-1

    SA(B

    (r-1)(s-1)

    SE

    rs(t-1)

    ST

    rst-1

    _1211986573.unknown

    _1211986835.unknown

    _1211987081.unknown

    _1211987198.unknown

    _1211986922.unknown

    _1211986605.unknown

    _1211986502.unknown

  • 8.3

  • ., , , , , . . .

  • . Y=f(x), , , Y=f(x)+eY, x, e().

  • , , , , ., .

  • , xY. :xi, yi, xOy

    xi100110120130140150160170180190yi45515461667074788589

  • xi100110120130140150160170180190yi45515461667074788589

    Chart1

    45

    51

    54

    61

    66

    70

    74

    78

    85

    89

    Sheet1

    100110120130140150160170180190

    45515461667074788589

    Sheet1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Sheet2

    Sheet3

  • , , , , :yi=b0+b1xi+ei,i=1,2,,10ei, .

  • , , Yx, Y=b0+b1x+e,(3.3)e~N(0,s2), b0,b1.(x1,Y1),(x2,Y2),,(xn,Yn)(x,Y), (x1,y1),(x2,y2),,(xn,yn).

  • Yi=0+1xi+i,

    i=1,2,,n

    (3.2)

    1,2,,n. ,

    Y~N(0+1x,2), E(Y)=0+1x

    (3.3)

    0,1

    . x,

    (3.4)

    E(Y)=0+1x, (3.4)Yx, ,

    .

    _1212092545.unknown

    _1212092676.unknown

    _1212092502.unknown

  • ,

    (x1,y1),(x2,y2),,(xn,yn), xi,

    yi

    yi

    .

    _1212133066.unknown

    _1212133108.unknown

    _1212133195.unknown

    _1212133014.unknown

  • xi, yi

    , .

    01

    ,

    . , Q0, 1, ,

    _1212133425.unknown

    _1212133555.unknown

    _1212133591.unknown

    _1212133382.unknown

  • ,

  • (3.5)

  • (3.5)(3.8)b0,b1. Yx.

  • ,

    1

    0,1,

    0,1,

    .

    _1212136873.unknown

    _1212136900.unknown

    _1212136819.unknown

  • , Y=b0+b1x+e, e~N(0,s2), b1=0, Yx, :H0:b1=0,H1:b10.H0, y1,y2,,yn, ,

  • S=S+S(3.10). S, S.

  • 2 , H0,

    ,

    ~2(n2),

    ~2(1).

    H0:

    T, F, .

    _1212138165.unknown

    _1212138184.unknown

    _1212138258.unknown

    _1212138007.unknown

  • 1. T-H0, Tt, |t|>ta/2(n-2), H0, , H0, .

  • 2. F-H0, FF0, F0>Fa(1,n-2), H0, , H0, .

  • 3. |r|>ra(n-2), H0, , H0, .ra(n-2).

  • , , , , , .

  • b0,b1,s2x.x'=1/x, :Y'=b0+b1x'+e, e~N(0,s2),

  • 2. Y=aebxe, lne~N(0,s2),(3.23)a,b,s2x.Y=aebxelnY=lna+bx+lneY'=lnY, b0=lna, b1=b, x'=x, e'=lne, (3.23):Y'=b0+b1x'+e', e'~N(0,s2),

  • 3. Y=axbe, lne~N(0,s2),(3.24)a,b,s2x.Y=axbelnY=lna+blnx+lneY'=lnY, b0=lna, b1=b, x'=lnx, e'=lne, (3.24):Y'=b0+b1x'+e', e'~N(0,s2),

  • 4. Y=a+bh(x)+e, e~N(0,s2),(3.25)a,b,s2x. h(x)x, Y'=Y, b0=a, b1=b, x'=h(x), (3.25)Y'=b0+b1x'+e, e~N(0,s2).