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, , , , 2014 2014 , . . . : [email protected] , . . . : , . . www.climateforumeast.orgwww.facebook.com/[email protected]: , : , jr/UNITgraphics.comDesign: Imre Sebastyn, jr/UNITgraphics.com: iStockphoto/Stevacekiii , 150 . , , . . - , 250 . . , . - . - , , , . ; , . . , , . , , , . , - , . . , iv 2013 1 , ,, . : , , , , (). , , . - , . . , , , , , , . , - , , , . . . , , , , , . , , v . . , , .. - . - , . , - , . - , , , . , . . / , , , , , , . . , , , , , , , . , vi 1. .................................................................................................................. 21.1 ................................................................................. 21.1.1 ...............................................................................21.1.2 .............................................................51.1.4 / ..................... 131.2 .................................152. .................................................................................. 192.1 ............................................................................................................................................... 192.1.1 .................................................................................................192.1.2 ..........................................................202.1.3 ..................................................................................213. ....................................................................................... 223.1 ............................................................................................................................................................... 223.1.1 ...............................................................................................223.1.2 ...................................233.1.3 ....................................................................................243.1.4 - ................................25 3.2 ............................................................................ 283.2.1 - ................................................283.2.2 ..................................................303.2.3 ............................313.2.4 .........................................................313.2.5 ...............................................................................................................................364. ...................................................................................................... 374.1 ............................................................ 374.2 ......................................................................................................................................................... 394.2.1 .............................................................394.2.2 ......................................................................................................................................................453.2.3 , .....................................................................................................................464.3 ..... 47 4.4 ........................................................................... 484.4.1 ...................................................................................................................................484.4.2 ..........................................................................................51vii5. ........................................................................................................................................................ 535.1 ................................................................... 534.2 ................................................................................... 54 ............................................................................................................................................. 56 , 21. 1.1 1.1.1 . 69 875 2. , - - , - . , 320 -. 69 () 2 ( ). . 5068.8 ( ). 2/3 . 2000 20%. . 1/3- . . . . , . . . . 14-150C, 1200-2500 . ( ) 4000 -). 6-100C 2-40C- , 1200-1600 2000 . . , - . 11-13 0C-, 2-70C. , , , . 800-1200 . - 375 . , . 26 000- ( 3 54 768 ), , . ( ) 49,8 3-, - 16,5 3. , . 850 . , 170 2- ( 0.24%). . . , , , , , - , . 40% . (14 , 10 , 32 , 18 2 ) 521 735,7 , 7,5 %- . 2 , , , . . 4483.8 (2013 ). 2013 , 46,2% . 74.5 . . 2005- 2009 1 000 10.7- 14.4- , 2012 11,7-. 69,14% 15- 64 . 65 2005 2013 13.8%- . , 15 22.0%- (2000) 17%- (2013) (15- 64 ) . . 71 . . , 1,17 . , 1 2012 3523,4 . . , , , . 2013 (0,745) 72- 187 , . 2012 15,846,8 , , 4 - 6,2%. 2008-2012 - 602,3 . 2012 15700,5 , 3490,9 . , 2008 , 2010 2011 . 2010 2011 6.3 7.0%- . 1. - (: , http://www.economy.ge/ge/publications/our/saqartvelos-ekonomikuri-mimoxilva)12 1.-(: ,http://www.economy.ge/ge/publications/our/saqartvelos-ekonomikuri-mimoxilva) 2.(: , http://www.economy.ge/ge/publications/our/saqartvelos-ekonomikuri-mimoxilva) 13.81719.11820.724.326.19.40%12.30%2.30%-3.80%6.30%7.20%6.10%-5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%0510152025302006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 31333867435341014676544758121764231529212455262332313520010002000300040005000600070002006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2. (: , http://www.economy.ge/ge/publications/our/saqartvelos-ekonomikuri-mimoxilva)12 1.-(: ,http://www.economy.ge/ge/publications/our/saqartvelos-ekonomikuri-mimoxilva) 2.(: , http://www.economy.ge/ge/publications/our/saqartvelos-ekonomikuri-mimoxilva) 13.81719.11820.724.326.19.40%12.30%2.30%-3.80%6.30%7.20%6.10%-5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%0510152025302006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 31333867435341014676544758121764231529212455262332313520010002000300040005000600070002006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 3. 13 4.-,2012.(: , http://www.economy.ge/ge/publications/our/saqartvelos-ekonomikuri-mimoxilva) 05000100001500020000250002006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012. , , . 17%17%. & .11%8%7%6% 5%5%24% 20 . , 1990 . (68.4%) (23.2%) ( , 2009) , (UNECE,2012). 4. - , 2012 . (: , http://www.economy.ge/ge/publications/our/saqartvelos-ekonomikuri-mimoxilva) 13 4.-,2012.(: , http://www.economy.ge/ge/publications/our/saqartvelos-ekonomikuri-mimoxilva) 05000100001500020000250002006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012. , , . 17%17%. & .11%8%7%6% 5%5%24% , . , 10%-, 45% . . ; 2011 Gini - 0.42. 5. (: , http://www.economy.ge/ge/publications/our/saqartvelos-ekonomikuri-mimoxilva)14 6.48.49.99.79.29.79.20246810122007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013% 90- 5 2008 - (258 595 ), (2011 129 599 ), , , , . 2012 15.0%- (), 2012 , , (Navarro & Woodward, 2010, 2012; CRRC, 2010).1.1.2 , , , , , , , - , . . , - , , , , ( ). 1995-2012 (, , , , , , ) 2708,25 . . 20 776 , 42781,7 - . 179 . , 2012 1 35 300 , 2012 4957 , 190 , 481 . . 15 6. 2012,: , 010002000300040005000600070008000900010000 6. 2012 , : , , 6 70%- 3000- 1. - .1995-2010 915,1 . . 2004-2005 , 1035 , 3070 , 2674 - . 3000- . 1995-2012 358 . 35 . . , . 100 . 150- . . 2012 1 : 2012 2013 , . . 5 . 20 . . . 1995-2012 202 . 502.8 . 38 . , , . 15-20 , . 2000 , 6 . 700 000 - 5,6% , . 2012 , 20 000 - - , 2000- 16 6. (: ) 050100150200250300350199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012 (.) ( ) ( ) ( ) 6. (: ) 7 . 150 . 50%- . , , , . 1995-2012 55,4 , 22 . - , , . . , .1.1.3 -20 60- . . UNFCCC- 1955-1970 1990-2005 . 0,20C-, 27 -, 0,3 0C-, 41 -. 7. 1960 1957-2006 (: UNFCCC-).18 7.1960 1957-2006(: UNFCCC-). 00.20.40.60.8 0C 0C 0C-40-30-20-1001020304050 ()18 7.1960 1957-2006(: UNFCCC-). 00.20.40.60.8 0C 0C 0C-40-30-20-1001020304050 () . , , ( ), , . , 1985-2005 . , 8 , 1955-1970 1990-2005 ( ) : , ( - , ) ( ). (1955-1970) (1990-2006) ( , ). . , . . : 0,20C 0,40C -. , . , . ( ) 0,50C -. , , . 16%-, 11%-. - , , - . 8. , 1955-1970 1990-2005 (: UNFCCC-).19 8., 1955-19701990-2005(: UNFCCC-). 0.20.40.630.701.60.52.100.511.522.533.5 () ()() (0C) (0C) (0C)138602468101214 () ()() () () ()19 8., 1955-19701990-2005(: UNFCCC-). 0.20.40.630.701.60.52.100.511.522.533.5 () ()() (0C) (0C) (0C)138602468101214 () ()() () () () 9 20 9.1961-19851986-20106 (:, , UNDP, 2013) -0.6-0.4-0.200.20.40.60.81 oC-30-20-10010203040 / % 20 9.1961-19851986-20106 (:, , UNDP, 2013) -0.6-0.4-0.200.20.40.60.81 oC-30-20-10010203040 / % 9. 1961-1985 1986-2010 6 (: , , UNDP, 2013) , . 2010-2011 (ENVSEC) (, , ), UNDP- . 21 1936-2005 . 0-1,50C--, 1,50C -. , - 250C-. (:Climate Change in the South Caucasus, A Visual Synthesys Based on official country information from the communications to the UNFCCC, scientific papers and news reports., ENVSEC/ Zo Environment Network 2011)Changes of air temperature in the South Caucasus13952008 for Armenia, 19362005 for Georgia, 19502005 for AzerbaijanChanges of anual air temperature(C)10.50(C)1.510.50(C)10.50-0.5Changes of summer air temperatureChanges of winter air temperatureSources: UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011. , 10 2007 IPCC -4 2 , , . , . 2IPCC, The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmnetal Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New Yourk, NY, USA.: Cabridge University Press, 2007. PRECIS- - A2 (HadAM3P ECHAM4). MAGICC/SCENGEN , . (HadAM3P, ECHAM4 MAGICC/SCENGEN) . -10 . -10 , 3,5 0C- 6%-, - 4,1 0C- 14.5 %-. , , .22 10.2100 01234567 /u 0C-100-50050100150 / %22 10.2100 01234567 /u 0C-100-50050100150 / % 10. 2100 11 . 2070-2100 (7,70C-) . 15%-.Projected climate change in GeorgiaChanges in 20112040 Changes in 20112040Changes in 20412070 Changes in 20412070Changes in 20712100 Changes in 20712100 (C)1.55%0%-5%0%-5%-10%-5%-10%-15%-20%(C)32.5(C)543.5(:Climate Change in the South Caucasus, A Visual Synthesys Based on offcial country information from the communications to the UNFCCC, scientifc papers and news reports., ENVSEC/ Zo Environment Network 2011)Sources: UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change for theSouth Caucasus, 2011.Sources: UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for theSouth Caucasus, 2011. , 12 , 2012-2013 (World Banks Europe and Central Asia (ECA) Regional Analytical and Advisory Activities (AAA) Program on Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in ECA Agricultural Systems, 2013) - (1. , 2. , 3. 4. . , ). (CMI) 2050 , *. , 2050 - 2,30C-, , 50 0,20C- 0,60C- . , . : 24%- . 2010-2050 , 2010-2050 , (/)Assessment of Vulnerability to Climate Change Georgia, Report 19 impact option.
Climate change impact on average annual temperature in 2010-2050 according to minimum, average and maximum impact options Climate change impact in average annual precipitations in 2010-2050 according tominimum, average and maximum impact options (mm/year) Source:ReducingtheVulnerabilityofGeorgiasAgriculturalSystemstoClimateChange,Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options, Industrial Economics, Incorporated,2013 * Minimum impact: Base for global circulation model for the option National Center for Atmosphere Assessment , Parallel Climate Model (USA); corresponding IPCC SRES option - A2; Maximumimpact:BaseforglobalcirculationmodelfortheoptionSpaceAssessmentGodards Institute , model lER (USA),corresponding IPCC SRES option - A1B; : Reducing the Vulnerability of Georgias Agricultural Systems to Climate Change, Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options, Industrial Economics, Incorporated, 2013*:- , (); IPCC SRES - A2;:- , lER (), IPCC SRES - A1B;:- , Coupled GCM 3.1 (Canada); IPCC SRES - A1B. 13UNFCCC- , (RECC)3 (CENN)4 , (, . , , , , , , ). UNFCCC- , 2050 (. ) 1,20C- 8-10%- . 2100 4,60C- 15.4 60C-, ( 2050 ). 2100 4,1 0C, 60 -. UNFCCC- 2050 1,50C- 1961-1990 . , 3 , (RECC) EU- , , , , . 4 , CENN- (USAID) , , , , . ( 2,20C). 2070-2099 1961-1990 4,2 0C- . 2021-2050 , , (6-8%-) (6-7%-). 2070-2099 7-10%-.1.1.4 / . , , , , . , . , , . , 2005 -, , . 2010 . . , 14 3 , - , (120 2 ), . . , . . . . 15-20 , . 30- , , , , , , , . . , , , . 2012 , 2 - . 12%- 1955-2005 . . 1980- 1998 35 . 50 . . . 1967-1989 2-, 9%-. 1956-2007 50-60%- , 0,7-- . . . . , . (2030-2050 ) 1. ( ) 2011 , : , , 2012 2013 15 0,2-0,3 - , . - , - . 30 . : 1967-68; 1974-75; 1982; 1985; 1987-89, 1991-92,1 1995-96. 1998, 2000-02, 2004-05, 2008 . 170- . 10 , 5. - 5 , , , 2012 2013 . () () , -, , . 70- 5- , 7- . . ( ) , 1980-2007 1952-1979 22%-. 0,7- 0,9 -1-. (1998-2007), 10 10 72 . . 1963-2006 5- .1.2 : (i) , (ii) ( - , ) (iii) ( ). , , . , , , , . (. , . , . . ) , . , , 16 . ( , , , ), , 6. , , , , - , . - , . , , , . ( ), , , . , 6 , UNDP, , 2013. , . 94%. 1990- . 1983-2006 7,5%- 3,2%- . 17 - (, , , ) , ( 0,365). ( ) ( 0,078-), , 1990- , ( 0.474). - , ( , RECC, EU, 2011). Climate change in the semi-arid zones of Georgia , 18 1986 40%-. , 60%- - , - . . . , CENN- , (MATRA) , (, , ), , . , - ILWIS-GIS- SMCE . :: http://drm.cenn.orgVulnerability to disasters in Georgia 192. Climate change impacts on water resources2.1 2.1.1 , . 61,5 3-, 52,77 3. , , , , , 2012 29,210 . 3-. , . 11. ( , . 3/ ) : 12. , . 3/, : 32 11.(,.3/) : 12. , . 3/,: 31,54130,09833,803 33,51722,76729,21005,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,0002007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 305,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,0002007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012- -32 11.(,.3/) : 12. , . 3/,: 31,54130,09833,803 33,51722,76729,21005,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,0002007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 305,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,0002007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012- - , 20 , , ( 20-50%- ). . , , , , . , , , . 2.1.2 : - 26-35% 45-65%- . . - (10%) , () 2050 . - . UNDP/ENVSEC PRECIS WEAP (Water Evalution and Planning Model) . , . UNFCCC- . . , . . . , . . 2. - 1961-1990 , : Climate Change in the South Caucasus, A Visual Synthesys Based on official country information from the communications to the UNFCCC, scientific papers and news reports., ENVSEC/ Zo Environment Network 2011 21 13. , 34 - 13. -8.5-11-36-9-40-35-30-25-20-15-10-50 , % , 34 - 13. -8.5-11-36-9-40-35-30-25-20-15-10-50 , %2.1.3 - . , . . 2010 , - (INRMW) , (GLOWS) . , . . . . . 20 , , , , (http://www.globalwaters.net/projects/current-projects/inrmw/). , 223. Climate change impacts on health3.1 , . - . : , , ( ). , , , - . , . - . ( , ) , () . , , . , , . 3.1.1 - . 2010 , , (2.4%) (6.5%) 7. . , . , 7 , 2013, 23 . , . 2007 ( , , , , 6 , , , , ..). , . , 2013 , . 2013 150 , . , , . , 2012 , , 2011 . , . 2007-2011 / . 2009 . 2012 / . , , . , () , . , , . , . 42 , 3 , 15 . 3.1.2 , , - 90- . . , 90- , 1995 2011 , 2470,3- 74.5- , . . , - 24.9- 12.0-, 49.2- 27.4- . , , 2015 , . , (36%), (10%) .. . , , , . , . - ( 54% , ) - . 2010 , . I II (25%- 30%-). , . - , , , , , , . 2011-2015 , 3-5 , 2020, , , , , 8. 3.1.3 () , : , , .. 1970 8 , 2013, 25 2004 140 000- , 2030 2-4 . , - . - , , , .. , : , . , , - , . , 2003 70 000 . , - , 9. , : , - . 60- 9 . , : , , . , , . . - - , . , , () . , , , . ( ), . : , . , , , . 3.1.4 - , , , , 26 . - - ., , ( , ..) , , , :. , . - , - - , .- - , , . , - , , - . 2010 10 , - 11 ( ).10 - ; - ;11 , , 2010 . , - ( )12 , (. 1) . 1. - ; (. 2), - . 2011 2010 9.2%- , -7.2%-.
.2. ; - . 13 - . 12 - ; - .13 A Human Health Perspective on Climate Change; A Report Outlining the Research Needs on the Human Health Effects of Climate Change; April 22, 2010; www. niehs.nih.gov/climatereport 27 (National Institute of Environmental Health Science) (CDC) . , . , - . : - , . , , , . (IPCC Third Assessment Report) - . , - 14., , , , , , - . , 14 Pope, cA, et al. Journal of the Air and Waste Management Association, 2006, p. 709-742.-, . , , 15. () . 2011 16 , , 10 ( 7168.1), ( 7600.2) . : 2011 15 63.7%- . 55.2% . 2011 63.4%- .2010 , 2011 6.4%- (.3) .3. , 15 Gong H, et al., American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine; 1998. p.920-927.16 , , 2011 . , 28 () (, , , , ) : , , - , , 17. . 2011 44.9%, ( 55.1%) . (95.4%) 17 http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/health.html ( - 99.4%). , 18. 2011 , 2010 , , 18.5%- . 14.6%- (. 4.). 2.9%-, 35.9 %- . .4. , 18 , , 2011 . 3.2 HEAT WAVES AND HEALTH RISK IN TBILISI3.2.1 - - . , 2011 13577-. (2422.1), , 100000 , . , : 28281. . : 6530.9, -5 , : 14 137. 29- : 22293- , 1162. 5.2%-. - , . - , 2003-2012 . , 2003-2008 . 2003 . . 2003-2006 (. 1). , , . : 2003, , 2010 , (. 5)48 . 5. 2003 2010 , 050010001500200025003000201020030200400600800100012001400160020102003. 5. 2003 2010 , , - - , . , 2003 2010 (. 6). 48 . 5. 2003 2010 , 050010001500200025003000201020030200400600800100012001400160020102003. 6. 2003 2010 , , 2003 , 2010 - , - . 2003 , (. 7 8).49 . 7. 2003 , 050100150200250300 49 . 7. 2003 , 050100150200250300 . 7. 2003 , , 3050 . 8. 2003 , 02468101214161820. 8. 2003 , 7 8 , . , . , - , , . 19, , , , (. ) .3.2.2 2011 19 The Impact of Recent Heat Waves on Human Health in California; Rupa Basu, Offce of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment, California Environmental Protection Agency, Oakland, California, 5 August 201314911.3, (13103.2). . , , : 4047-, 704-, . 2011 - 19863. , 2.2%-. , . - , 2003-2012 . 2003 , , , 2011 . (2003 2011) (. . 9).52 . 9. 2003 2011 , 05010015020025030020112003. 9. 2003 2011 , 31 , - , , , - .3.2.3 , . , , . , 5 2 , , , 10 . . , . : , , ( ), 20. , , . , ( ), . , , 20 http://www.nlm.nih.gov/medlineplus/heatillness.html(, ) 21. . 2003 , 70 000 . 15 000- . . 22. 3.2.4 . (HI- Heat Index). HI R.G. Steadman , (HI- Relative Humidity) . 1 - (NWS - National Weather Service) .21 http://www.cdc.gov/climateandhealth/effects/default.htm22 , 32 2 (WHO World Health Organization) , . 1. H (%)Temperature (C)26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 4190 28 30.7 33.8 37.1 40.7 44.7 49 53.5 58.5 63.7 63.7 75.1 81.2 87.7 94.5 10285 27.9 30.2 32.9 35.9 39.1 42.7 46.6 50.8 55.2 60 65.1 70.4 76.1 82.1 88.3 94.980 27.7 29.7 32.1 34.7 37.7 40.9 44.4 48.1 52.2 56.5 61.2 66.1 71.3 76.8 82.5 88.675 27.5 29.3 31.4 33.7 36.3 39.2 42.3 45.7 49.4 53.3 57.5 62 66.8 71.8 77 82.670 27.3 28.9 30.7 32.7 35 37.6 40.4 43.5 46.8 50.3 54.2 58.2 62.5 67.1 71.9 7765 27.1 28.5 30 31.8 33.9 38.7 38.7 41.4 44.4 47.6 51 54.7 58.6 62.7 67.1 71.760 26.9 28.1 29.5 31 32.8 34.8 37.1 39.5 42.2 45.1 48.1 51.4 55 58.7 62.6 66.855 26.7 27.7 28.9 30.3 31.9 33.7 35.6 37.8 40.2 42.8 45.5 48.5 51.6 55 58.5 62.350 26.6 27.4 28.5 29.7 31.1 32.6 34.4 36.3 38.4 40.7 43.1 45.8 48.6 51.6 54.8 58.145 26.4 27.1 28 29.1 30.3 31.7 33.2 34.9 36.8 38.8 41 43.4 45.9 48.5 51.3 54.340 26.2 26.9 27.7 28.6 29.7 30.9 32.3 33.8 35.4 37.2 39.1 41.2 43.4 45.8 48.3 50.935 26 26.6 27.4 28.2 29.2 30.3 31.5 32.8 34.3 35.8 37.5 39.3 41.3 43.3 45.5 47.830 25.8 26.4 27.1 27.9 28.8 29.7 30.8 32 33.3 34.7 36.2 37.8 39.4 41.2 43.1 45.1:. 10C- . 2. , (WHO): HI 2732C 3241C , / , 4154 C - , / . 54 C . , , 22.2C 10% , (normal) , (warm)- , , , , 26.6C-. ( 1961-1985 . 1986-2010 33.) . - ( 3 ), ), )), ( 4 ), ), )) 3. :) -Tbilisi1961-19851986-2010Normal 87.36 75.76 -11.6Warm 47.52 45.08 -2.44Very Warm 17.92 31.28 13.36Hot 0.2 0.88 0.68Very Hot 0 0 0Extremely Hot 0 0 0Total number of dangerous days18 32 14) -Tbilisi1961-19851986-2010Normal 19.32 19 -0.32Warm 27.36 20.72 -6.64Very Warm 51.8 43.92 -7.88Hot 45.24 46.84 1.6Very Hot 9.12 22.2 13.08Extremely Hot 0.16 0.32 0.16Total number of dangerous days 106 113 7) -Tbilisi1961-19851986-2010Normal 149 144.6 -4.4Warm 4 8.32 4.32Very Warm 0 0.08 0.08Hot 0 0 0Very Hot 0 0 0Extremely Hot 0 0 0Total number of dangerous days0 0 0 4. (C):) -Tbilisi1961-19851986-2010Normal 18.64 18.40 -0.24Warm 25.35 25.43 0.08Very Warm 27.99 28.31 0.32Hot 33.34 33.10 -0.24Very HotExtremely HotAverage value of dangerous days30.66 30.70 0.04) -Tbilisi1961-19851986-2010Normal 19.64 19.25 -0.39Warm 25.53 25.53 0.00Very Warm 29.21 29.37 0.17Hot 35.72 36.00 0.28Very Hot 43.88 44.63 0.75Extremely Hot 57.87 57.05 -0.82Average value of dangerous days41.67 41.76 0.09) -Tbilisi1961-19851986-2010Normal 15.98 16.38 0.40Warm 24.80 24.96 0.16Very Warm 27.15 -HotVery HotExtremely HotAverage value of dangerous days- 27.15 - - . , 34 - - . :- ( 3 ) - ( 3 ) 14 7 . - ( 3 ) , , , (very warm) .- - 2010 , ( 4 , , ) 0.04C 0.09C . - ( 4 ) (very warm) (0.32C ) -( 4 ) 0.17C, 0.28C 0.75C : (very warm), (hot) (very hot) . -( 4 ) , (very warm) , 27.15C , , , . (normal) (warm) 0.4C 0.16C . , (1961-1985 1986-2010 ), - . - . : , , , , , - , - , , . ( 1986-2010 2025-2049 .) . - , ( 5 6) . , . 35 5. :) , ????????Average-dailyTbilisi1986-20102025-2049Normal1894 1253 -641Warm1127 990 -137Very Warm782 1262 480Hot22 245 223Very Hot0 0 0Extremely Hot0 0 0Total number of dangerous days804 1507 703) -Average-dailyTbilisi1986-20102025-2049Normal 76 50 -26Warm 45 40 -5Very Warm 31 50 19Hot 1 10 9Very Hot 0 0 0Extremely Hot 0 0 0Total number ofdangerous days 32 60 28 6. :-Average-dailyTbilisi1986-20102025-2049Normal 18,40 18,67 0,27Warm 25,43 25,47 0,05Very Warm 28,31 28,82 0,51Hot 33,10 33,95 0,85Very HotExtremely HotAverage value ofdangerous days30,70 31,38 0,68 :- ( 5 ) 703 , - 28 ( 5 ). 0.68- ( 6). 25 (1986-2010 2025-2049) (1961-1985 1986-2010), , :. 1961-1985 1986-2010 ( ) 14- , 1986-2010 1961-1985 14- , : 2025-2049 1986-2010 28- .. : 1961-1985 1986-2010 0,04 , - 2025-2049 1986-2010 0.68 . , : - , . , , , 36, (. ), ( ). 3.2.5 . () ; - .. - . , : , ;. ( ) - ; . . : , , ( ) ;. , , - . , , , . 374. 4.1 , - . . , . , , , , . EU- - , Mercy corps CENN- , , (, , , ) . , . . 1300- . 2014 . Raising public awareness on climate change , 38 , . , , 2- . , -, 40%- . . 300 . 600- . (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CgJqtq-58dM). , (Norges Naturvernforbund) (GIZ) . / 5 . . , , , , . 2013 , . . Lets Jointly Create a Sustainable Future A week dedicated to climate change in Georgia 39 . , . , , . . , . , / . , . .2323 , , USAID, 2013. 4.2 4.2.1 : (UNFCCC)24 25 24 1994 16 302 .25 1999 28 . , . 1997-1999 . , - -20 , , , ; ; , 40 (1980-1997 ) . 2006-2009 - . (1998-2006 ), , , - , ( ) (, ) , . , , . . , . 6 : (i) , (ii) , (iii) , (iv) , (v) , . , , . , 2010-2017 26. ( ) . 2012 , , . GEF/UNDP- , 2014 . . , : , . (GHGs) ; (2006-2010 ) : ( ), , , - (LULUCF); 26 2010 25 #172 2010-2017 . 41 . , , , . , , , . 2012 (NEAP) (2012-2016)27. (20 ) : . . (5-) : 1 - . 2 - . 3 - . NEAP- . ( , 27 2012 24 #127 . ), , , , . 2014-2017 (BDD)28 .2010 , 2020 CO2 20%- . . , . : ; , ; ; 28 , , 42 , ; ; ; , () . (, , , ) / . . 2005 2005-2015 , , - . , , , . 29 , , , , . , , , , , . , , , . , , , , . NEAP- , . , , , - . NEAP- :29 2011 23 5589 . 43 1 - /; 2 - - /; 3 - (, , ) ; 4 - . 2014-2017 (BDD)30 : ; ; /. 2011-2015 - . (UNDAF) : ( ) ; , , ; , ;30 , ; , , . : . , . , . . , , , , , . , , 44 . . , . , , - . 2013 - , : ; ; : ; ; ; , ; . , , . . . / , . , . / . , . , . , 45 , . , (2005-2015) , UNDP . (DRR Think Tank), , , , DRR- , . - DRR- , -:http://www.undp.org.ge/files/24_853_170970_3W-201003.pdf4.2.2 (1996 ) () ( 51). (1999) . , , 5 . , . , . , , , , - . (2007 ), , , , , . 2008 , 46 (415) . - , , , . 3.2.3 , , , - ( ). : , , , , ; , , ; , ; , , ;, , , . 2008 . : , , . , - . 1844 . 100- 300- . . : 1990 148 180 35 58 . , 47 . , (, ) . 7 ( -3 , . , . , . . . . UNDP- . , . , . , . . (MATRA) (http://drm.cenn.org). , , 31. 31 : . MWH . , CENN.4.3 2010-2011 (ENVSEC) (, , ). . : (i) ; (ii) ; (iii) - ; (iv) . , 48 , , , . , , (ENRTP) (, ) , , . ENRTP- - ENPI- - . 3.4.1. 4.4 4.4.1 , , , . . () 2010 , , . 2012 USAID- . , . , - , , . . ( 65 ) , , , , , . 49 , , 2010-2017 . 32 . . , / . . - . (CENN) , , , , , . USAID-, EU-, MATRA (, , -). CENN- 32 2010 25 #172 2010-2017 . (MATRA) , , (http://drm.cenn.org), .Mercy corps CENN- EU- , , , , . (-, ), (- ) (- ) DRR- CCA- . , , , , . (REC Caucasus) , 50 , - , , . EU- RECC , - . - ( , ), - , . . ((WWF-Caucasus) . WWF-Caucasus EU ENRTP- , . , , 150 , .Oxfam , , . Oxfam , , . Oxfam . RECC- Oxfam (Views from the Frontline)33 , . (DRR Think Tank), (UNDP) , 33 , 2009 (GNDR) . 51 , . 4.4.2 - . : I: , ; II: ; III: , ; IV: . , : ; ; ; . (1997) 2008 26 #415 . , - , , , . , , . - 12 000- , . 2013 1 , ,, . : , , , , (). , 52 , , . - , . 2012-2013 , , , . (, , ) ( , , , , ). 20 11 , , . , - , , , . , , . , , . . - 3000 . 535. 5.1 (NEAP), , UNFCCC- ( , ). 2010-2017 . ( ) , . , ( ), , . . , , . . ( ) , - . , , .. 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