استخدام-نظرية-الألعاب-في-منظمة-الأوبك-لإدارة-مخاطر-تقلبات-أسعار-النفط-في-الأسواق-الدولية-أ.د.-محمد-سالم-الصفدي...

43
ر م ت ؤ م ل ا ي م ل ع ل ا ي ل الدو ؤي ن س ل ا ع ب سا ل ا دارة% ا ر;pma& ط ا خ م ل ا و صاد, ت ق ا ة رف مع ل ا16-18 6 سان ي ن ل ن ر ب% / ا2007 ص خ ل مE ث ح ب ل ا دم ق مE ث ح ب ل ا: مد ح م .د. ا م ل سا دي ق ص ل ا م س ق مW ظ ن ؤمات ل ع م ل ا ة داري% الإ امعة ج ة ؤي ن ي ز ل ا ة ي ي رد الإ كة مل م ل ا ة ي ي رد الإ ة ي مE ش ها ل ا6 ؤان ن عE ث ح ا ب ل ا: دام خ ت س ا ة ريW ظ ن عات ل الإ ي ف مةW ظ ت مz ك ن و الإ دارة% لإ ر ط ا خ م ات ب ل ق ت عار س ا ط ف ن ل ا ي ف واق س الإ ة ي ل الدو ص . ت130 6 مان ع11733 6 ردن – الإ6 ؤن ف ل ت4291511 009626 س ك ا ف4291432 009626 E – mail : [email protected].

Upload: mohamed-mansour

Post on 17-Nov-2015

1 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

DESCRIPTION

fhfghfg

TRANSCRIPT

16-18 / 2007

:

..

:

- 1967 . . .

16-18 / 2007

:

..

:

- 1967 . . .

:

1960 : .

( Expert system ) .

.

]. The Energy Journal no 1 1986 P20 ] .

:

.

50 % 65 1950 1952 1953 (2.76 ) . ( 3 ) 1954 ( 20 ) ( 120 ) 1955 ( 20.4 )% ( 59 ) %

( 30 ) % ( 6 ) % ( 4 ) % 1956 1957 (3.25) ( 57 ) % 1959 ( 2.92 ) ( 3.14 ) 1959 ( OBEC ) 14 / 9 /1960

1945 - 196019451946194719481949195019511952

1.361.702.682.682.682.762.762.76

1.051.051.202.062.031.751.751.75

: Wayne A. Leeman , The Price of Middle East oil , Cornell University Prees , New York 1962 pp.103-106 1945 - 196019531954195519561957195819591960

2.763.003.003.003.253.253.143.14

1.971.971.971.972.122.121.941.80

" " } (23) 1976 20 { 1960 / / ( 1.9 2.82 )

] OPEC annual review and record , 1970 , p.2 [ ( 50 60 ) % ( 55 ) % .

1978 ( 10 ) % 1979 ( 56 ) %

PRIVATE "TYPE=PICT;ALT=Oil prices from 1861-2006 in dollars of the day (black) and 2006 dollars (orange). Source: [13] and other publications."http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Oil_Prices_1861_2006.jpg

HYPERLINK "http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Oil_Prices_1861_2006.jpg":

19712.610.3

19722.810.4

19733.19.5

197410.426

.197510.423.2

197611.625.8

197712.625.7

197812.923.5

197929.246.3

1947 2005 19803650

198134.249.5

198231.748

198330.146.2

198428.144.5

1970 198527.544.4

19861318

198717.722.2

198814.216.6

198917.320.1

199022.323.9

199118.620

199218.419.4

199316.318.1

199415.516.7

199516.916.9

199620.320.9

199718.720.3

199814.416.2

199910.816.8

.

1980 1990 ( 80 ) % .

:

.

( 0.70 - 1.40 ) 1960 ( 1970 1980 )

1985

1986 10 .

( Adleman )* ( Frankl ) :

.. .

==================================================

M. A. Adleman Oil Prices in long run , The journal of Business Vol . 37 No. 2 . 1964 .

( M. Gholi ) :

Industrialisation and Trade Policies Of Opec Countries ""

.. .. ] [ MAXMIN ] [MINMAX ( ) [ [ (Popt ) :

] = Popt [ MAXMIN = ] [MINMAX [ pij ] J ] [ ( ) I ] [ ( ) :

( )( A )

(n) (n-1)---- ---- (2) (1)

P1,nP1,n-1--------P1,2P1,1 (1)

P2,nP2,n-1--------P2,2P2,1 (2)

!!--------!!!

!!--------!!!

Pm-1,nPm-1,n-1--------Pm-1,2Pm-1,1 (m-1)

Pm,nPm,n-1--------Pm,2Pm,1 (m)B)

( ) .

.

( ) .. .. .. ( ) :

) :

1) [ xj=1 ;2,3n]

x1+ x2 + x3+ + xn = 1

2 ) ( )

:

( ) xi pij g: (j=1 ;2,3n ( ) :

1) [ Yi=1 ;2,3m]

Y1+ Y2 + Y3+ + Ym = 1

2 ) ( ) ( g ) :

( ) xi pij g: (j=1 ;2,3n ( [ Dual Problem ] .

:

.

- 1988

- 1987

- 1989 .

- ( )

- ( )

- 1998 .

www.oil-price.netwww.foxnews.comwww.peakoil.comwww.smh.com.auwww.bunkerworld.comwww.protworld.comREFERENCESCampbell, C. J. Title: The coming oil crisis / by C. J. Campbell. Publisher: Brentwood : Multiscience Publishing Co. & Petroconsultants S.A, [2000?] Description: viii, 210 p. : 30 cm.

Looney, Robert E. Title: Economic development in Saudi Arabia : consequences of the oil price decline / by Robert E. Looney. Publisher: Greenwich, Conn. : Jai Press, c1990. Description: xxii, 289 p. ; 24 cm.

Kalt, Joseph P., Title: The economics and politics of oil price regulation : federal policy in the post-embargo era / Joseph P. Kalt. Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. : MIT Press, c1981. Description: xx, 327 p. : 24 cm.

Tietenberg, Thomas H. Title: Environmental and natural resource economics / Tom Tietenberg. 5th ed. Publisher: Reading, MA : Addison-Wesley, c2000. Description: xxv, 630 p. : 24 cm.

White, Hugh. Title: The Gulf War and the oil market / Hugh White. Publisher: Canberra : Legislative Research Service, Dept. of the Parliamentary Library, 1984. Description: 34 p. : 25 cm.

Feldman, Robert A., 1949- Title: The impact of oil import price shocks on domestic prices / Robert A. Feldman ; foreword by J. David Richardson. Publisher: Boulder, Colo. : Westview Press, 1982. Description: xv, 191 p. : 24 cm.

Roncaglia, Alessandro, 1947-. Title: The international oil market : a case of trilateral oligopoly / Alessandro Roncaglia ; edited by J.A. Kregel. Publisher: Basingstoke : Macmillan, 1985, c1984. Description: vii, 180 p. ; 23cm.

Yeomans, Matthew. Title: Oil : a concise guide to the most important product on Earth / Matthew Yeomans. Publisher: New York : New Press, c2005. Description: xxvi, 256 p. : 20 cm.

Yeomans, Matthew. Title: Oil : anatomy of an industry / Matthew Yeomans. Publisher: New York : New Press, 2004. Description: xxvi, 246 p. ; 20 cm.

Marquez, Jaime R. Title: Oil price effects and OPECs pricing policy : an optimal control approach / Jaime R. Marquez. Publisher: Lexington, Mass. : Lexington Books, c1984. Description: xiv, 206 p. : 24 cm.

Schneider, Steven A. Title: The oil price revolution / Steven A. Schneider. Publisher: Baltimore : Johns Hopkins University Press, c1983. Description: xv, 630 p. ; 24 cm.

Horwich, George, Title: Oil price shocks, market response, and contingency planning / George Horwich and David Leo Weimer. Publisher: Washington : American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, c1984. Description: xvi, 220 p. ; 23 cm.

Devereux, M. P. (Michael Pryce), 1937- Title: Oil prices and budget strategy / Michael Devereux. Publisher: London : Institute for Fiscal Studies, c1986. Description: 25 p. : 22cm.

Badger, Daniel. Title: Oil supply and price : what went right in 1980? / Daniel Badger and Robert Belgrave. Publisher: London : Policy Studies Institute, c1982. Description: p95-148 : 21cm.

OPEC and the world oil market : the genesis of the 1986 price crisis / edited by Robert Mabro. Publisher: Oxford : Oxford University Press for the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, 1986. Description: [250] p. ; 22cm.

Williams, Robin Murphy. Title: The wars within : peoples and states in conflict / Robin M. Williams Jr. Publisher: Ithaca : Cornell University Press, 2003. Description: xiii, 318 p. ; 24 cm.

Hanlon, Brian. Title: Application of game theory to tactical development in simulation studies / Brian Hanlon. Publisher: Melbourne : DSTO Aeronautical and Maritime Research Laboratory, 1998.

Ghallab, Malik. Title: Automated planning : theory and practice / Malik Ghallab, Dana Nau, Paolo Traverso. Publisher: San Francisco, CA : Morgan Kaufmann Elsevier, c2004. Description: xxviii, 635 p. : 25 cm.

Siegfried, Tom, 1950- Title: A beautiful math : John Nash, game theory, and the modern quest for a code of nature / Tom Siegfried. 1st ed. Publisher: Washington, D.C. : Joseph Henry ; Towcester : Oxford Publicity Partnership [distributor], 2006. Description: viii, 264 p. : 24 cm.

Camerer, Colin- Title: Behavioral game theory : experiments in strategic interaction / Colin F. Camerer. Publisher: Princeton, N.J. : Princeton University Press, c2003. Description: xv, 550 p. ; 24

Bacharach, Michael. Title: Beyond individual choice : teams and frames in game theory / Michael Bacharach ; edited by Natalie Gold and Robert Sugden. Publisher: Princeton, N.J. : Princeton University Press, c2006. Description: xxiii, 214 p. : 24 cm.

Fierke, K. M. (Karin M.) Title: Changing games, changing strategies : critical investigations in security / K.M. Fierke. Publisher: Manchester ; New York : Manchester University Press ; New York ; Distributed exclusively in the USA by St. Martins Press, 1998. Description: xii, 234 p. ; 24 cm.

Condon, Anne. Title: Computational models of games / Anne Condon. Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. : MIT Press, c1989. Description: 125 p. : 24 cm.

Osborne, Martin J. Title: A course in game theory / Martin J. Osborne, Ariel Rubinstein. Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. : MIT Press, c1994. Description: xv, 352 p. : 24 cm.

Kelly, Anthony, 1957- Title: Decision making using game theory : an introduction for managers / Anthony Kelly. Publisher: New York : Cambridge University Press, 2003. Description: x, 204 p. : 26 c Rapoport, Anatol, 1911- Title: Decision theory and decision behaviour / Anatol Rapoport. 2nd rev. ed. Publisher: Basingstoke, Hampshire : Macmillan, 1998. Description: xvii, 469 p. : 25 cm.

BINMORE, KEN Title: DOES GAME THEORY WORK? : THE BARGAINING CHALLENGE. Publisher: CAMBRIDGE MIT PRESS 2007

Vega-Redondo, Fernando. Title: Economics and the theory of games / Fernando Vega-Redondo. Publisher: Cambridge, UK ; New York : Cambridge University Press, 2003. Description: xii, 512 p. : 26 cm.999333999

. 130

11733

4291511 009626

4291432 009626

E mail :

[email protected]

. 130

11733

4291511 009626

4291432 009626

E mail :

[email protected]

EMBED PBrush

EMBED PBrush

EMBED PBrush

EMBED PBrush