บทความ-การลงทุนและวัฎจักรอสังหาริมทรัพย์...

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. (www.M-property.co.th)

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53 7.8% 2 ( ) ( )

()

http://www.m-property.co.th/

2

20

4-5

3

180

2533-2536 () 2540 2545 2547

() 2540 2540 2541-2542

3

2533-2538 ( )

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( 2)

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20 () 2529-2530 2532-2533 2536-2538 ( 8-9% ) ( 2534-3535 )

2528

( 2528 =1) 33 2539 2532-2539


4

2530 200 1.52 2 10 ( 3.19 2540 ( 2550 4.18 ) 10 33 (3,300%) 2528 1,000 33,000

1 2528-2553 (1985-2010)

: AREA (www.area.co.th)

50-100% 2558

2539 ( 5.9%)

2540-2541 ( -1.4%,-10.5%) ( 90% 10%) 2542-2544 ( 4.4%, 4.8%, 2.2%) 2545 ( 5.3%) 2546-2547 ( 5.3%, 7.1%, 6.3%)

Land Price Changes in the BMR 1985Land Price Changes in the BMR 1985--20102010

Urbanization

48-53

40

Land Price Changes in the BMR 1985Land Price Changes in the BMR 1985--20102010

Urbanization

48-53

40

Urbanization

48-53

40

5

( 2536-2538 200,000 300,000 2540-2541 20,000-30,000 50,000-70,000

2548-2550 ( 4.5%,5.0%,4.8%)

2551-2552 ( 2.6%,-2.8%) 65,000 59,000 10% 2553

2529-2530, 2540-2541 2551-2552

10-12 1 () 5-7 2-3 10-12 () ( ) ( )

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2539 (1996) 2540 2542-2543 () 26.3 ( 20%) 40.2 2553 53% ( 4.8%) 2540 ( 1 5 50,000-70,000 300,000 ) NPA 2-3 ()


6

12 ( 2541

) 117% ( 9.75%) 12 188-233% ( 16-19% ) 56% 50% 49% 54% ( 4.5%) 2548 2542 2547 2 2548

( ) ( )

2540 () (Fake demand) 13-14% 300,000 200,000 100,000 200,000 (100,000 100,000 ) 2540 90% ( 10%) 2-30,000

2551-2552

7

( NPL ) 2551-2552 2553

, , , , , (- -), ()

2534 2535

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2552 2553 7.8% 4-5% 2554 ( 2555)

1.


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2. ( )

3. 2555 () 6.87 5-10% 200,000-300,000 2-3

4. 2558 ( ) ( )

5.

6. () ( )

7. () 7 8 14 1-2 100,000 200,000 ( )

8.

9

9.

() ( 2533 ) 2548-2553

1:


() ( )

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

Housing Register Launch (AREA) GDP MLR

Housing Register 136,104 146,735 148,557 121,213 44,338 13,532 15,101 14,341 19,489 37,487 48,441 45,164 49,662 49,769 59,048 69,938 33,994

Launch (AREA) 283,892 190,315 131,815 44,353 3,421 4,149 8,748 14,322 39,833 52,305 68,052 63,579 66,118 81,364 67,791 57,604 43,783

214,275 211,458 99,839 36,957 24,473 19,693 34,244 21,644 38,114 75,718 57,102 53,623 51,564 65,039 65,653 59,085 42,448

116,104 97,382 120,941 156,927 135,875 120,331 94,835 87,513 80,232 56,819 67,769 77,725 92,349 108,674 110,812 109,331 110,666

GDP 5.2 4.6 5.9 5.4 5.6 5.8 4.6 5.5 9.5 13.3 12.2 11.2 8.6 8.1 8.3 9.0 9.2 5.9 -1.4 -10.5 4.4 4.8 2.2 5.3 7.1 6.3 4.5 5.0 4.8 2.6 -2.2 3.5

9.9 19.7 12.7 5.1 3.7 0.8 2.4 1.9 2.4 3.9 5.3 5.9 5.7 4.1 3.4 5.0 5.7 5.9 5.6 8.0 0.3 1.6 1.6 0.7 1.8 2.7 4.5 4.7 2.3 5.5 -0.9 3.6

MLR 14.50 16.50 17.00 16.00 15.50 16.50 15.50 12.00 11.50 12.00 12.50 16.25 14.00 11.50 10.50 11.75 13.75 13.00 15.25 11.75 8.36 7.88 7.25 6.75 5.63 5.63 6.63 7.75 6.99 6.88 6.05 6.05

2522 2523 2524 2525 2526 2527 2528 2529 2530 2531 2532 2533 2534 2535 2536 2537 2538 2539 2540 2541 2542 2543 2544 2545 2546 2547 2548 2549 2550 2551 2552 Q2/2553

MLR

GDP

Launch AREA

Housing

Register

Macro economic vs Property cycle 40-41 46-47 52GDP -10.5% GDP +5-7% GDP -7.1%(Q1/52)

5-8% 2-3% -1.1% 13-15% 2-4% 5-6% 160,000 + 4-500,000 5-60,000 100,000 +Over supply 4-50,000

2-30,000 5-70,000 50,000 ++

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

Housing Register Launch (AREA) GDP MLR

Housing Register 136,104 146,735 148,557 121,213 44,338 13,532 15,101 14,341 19,489 37,487 48,441 45,164 49,662 49,769 59,048 69,938 33,994

Launch (AREA) 283,892 190,315 131,815 44,353 3,421 4,149 8,748 14,322 39,833 52,305 68,052 63,579 66,118 81,364 67,791 57,604 43,783

214,275 211,458 99,839 36,957 24,473 19,693 34,244 21,644 38,114 75,718 57,102 53,623 51,564 65,039 65,653 59,085 42,448

116,104 97,382 120,941 156,927 135,875 120,331 94,835 87,513 80,232 56,819 67,769 77,725 92,349 108,674 110,812 109,331 110,666

GDP 5.2 4.6 5.9 5.4 5.6 5.8 4.6 5.5 9.5 13.3 12.2 11.2 8.6 8.1 8.3 9.0 9.2 5.9 -1.4 -10.5 4.4 4.8 2.2 5.3 7.1 6.3 4.5 5.0 4.8 2.6 -2.2 3.5

9.9 19.7 12.7 5.1 3.7 0.8 2.4 1.9 2.4 3.9 5.3 5.9 5.7 4.1 3.4 5.0 5.7 5.9 5.6 8.0 0.3 1.6 1.6 0.7 1.8 2.7 4.5 4.7 2.3 5.5 -0.9 3.6

MLR 14.50 16.50 17.00 16.00 15.50 16.50 15.50 12.00 11.50 12.00 12.50 16.25 14.00 11.50 10.50 11.75 13.75 13.00 15.25 11.75 8.36 7.88 7.25 6.75 5.63 5.63 6.63 7.75 6.99 6.88 6.05 6.05

2522 2523 2524 2525 2526 2527 2528 2529 2530 2531 2532 2533 2534 2535 2536 2537 2538 2539 2540 2541 2542 2543 2544 2545 2546 2547 2548 2549 2550 2551 2552 Q2/2553

MLR

GDP

Launch AREA

Housing

Register

Macro economic vs Property cycle 40-41 46-47 52GDP -10.5% GDP +5-7% GDP -7.1%(Q1/52)

5-8% 2-3% -1.1% 13-15% 2-4% 5-6% 160,000 + 4-500,000 5-60,000 100,000 +Over supply 4-50,000

2-30,000 5-70,000 50,000 ++

10

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( 5)

. (www.M-property.co.th) 4 2548

3 12-15 23-26 2548 ( ) 2-3 ( )

1:


11

48%44%

61%

60%54%

27%16%

20%13%14%17%19%11%

53%

31%32%

20%

27%

16%

26%27%

31%31%

48%57%

29%18%33%

23%

40%

42%

50%

21%

21%18%

14%18%

36%31%

28%

10%

32%

26%

20%

11%

13%

11%

11%

8%5%

6%

22%

24%

44%

37%

36%

12%

16%15%

0

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

125,000

150,000

175,000

200,000

225,000

32,998 33,043 12,233 13,161 9,105 8,600 6,770 962 1,681 16,985 3,601 438 232 3,131 5,127 6,002

22,967 27,432 11,263 7,326 6,256 1,935 3,321 6,989 10,760 23,397 20,427 9,613 7,060 11,702 13,858 11,468

88,956 84,402 23,256 12,242 4,500 5,726 19,400 10,901 18,123 23,188 17,783 14,669 13,277 10,626 17,834 10,668

69,354 66,581 53,087 4,228 4,612 3,432 4,753 2,792 7,550 12,148 15,291 28,903 30,995 39,580 28,834 25,870

2537 2538 2539 2540 2541 2542 2543 2544 2545 2546 2547 2548 2549 2550 2551 2552

211,458

99,839

36,957

24,47319,693

34,244

21,644

38,114

75,718

57,10253,623

51,564

65,039 65,653

27,004

214,275

54,008


2 ( ) ( ) () ()

2540

12

() ( 90%) 100% () () ( ) ( ) () (Capital Gain)

บทความ-การลงทุนและวัฎจักรอสังหาริมทรัพย์...

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