PAGE 17

wbarakat2003@hotmail.com - - : - - - - - - . : . : . : - - 15- 24 - . : - 60 .

. ( 1421).

280401 736 4419 313 28998 1421 ( 1421). :1- :

(1) . (2) .

(3) . (4) .

(5) . (6) .

(7) .

126180 280401 1421 45% .

:

(1) 1421

1- .2- .3- .4- .82017

35330

7571

126265%

28%

6%

1%

126180100%

: 1421.

63% 27% .

2- 91691 280401 1421 32.7% . 1421 .

( 2 ) 1421

1- .2- .3- .4- .61688168247851532867.3%18.3%8.6%5.8%

91691100%

: 1421.

3- - . 15422 280401 1421 , 5.5% . ( , 1421 ).

4- .(Sagberg, F., 1999) 5- - . (Campbell, B.J., Campbell, F.A., 1988; Evans, L., 1987).6- 523 0.19% .

(Maycock, G., 1997; Taoka, 1998).7- . (Chen, L., Baker, S. P., Braver, E. R., & Li, G, 2000; .Murray, A, 1998)8- 202 0.07% . (Sivak, M., Soler, J., & Trankle, U. 1989; Venezian, E., 1980) 1421 . (3 ) 1421

1- .2- .3- . 4- .5- .6- .12618091691

154223476202

4343045%

32.7%5.5%1.2%0.07%

15.5%

280401100%

: : 1421 . , 1421.

: (1) . .(2) . (3) (- ) .

(1) 1412 1421 1412 .(2) The Census Formula . . (3) Life Year Calendar Year .

. :(1) ( ) . .

(2) . (3) . (4) .

:(1) : . 15-24 .* 60 . (25-59 ) . ( ). . . ( + ) . ( + ) . .

(2) Life Year Calendar Year .

:

: .

(1) ( ).

(2) ( ) .: .

(1) . 1412 1421.(2) . .(3) . :

-14. 15-29. 30-44 . 45-59 . 60 (4) . :

.

.(5) . . : : . : : . : . .. :

:

. .

( 4 ) 1405-1421 (

1405

1412

1413

1414

1415

1416

1417

1418

1419

1420

142129052

40076

85277

125324

122140

167265

135763

153727

264326

267772

280401100.0

138.1

293.5

431.4

420.4

575.7

467.3

529.1

909.8

921.7

965.222630

27385

34880

32133

31033

26115

25072

28144

31059

32361

28998100.0

121.0

154.1

142.1

137.1

115.4

110.8

124.4

137.2

143.0

124.13277

3495

3719

4077

3789

3123

3131

3474

4290

4848

4419100.0

106.7

113.7

124.4

115.6

95.3

95.5

106.0

130.9

147.9

134.8

: 1421.

1421 1405 . 31% 1405 . 17% 1405 . :

( 5 )

( ) 1421

%

%%

8431330.07485116.7372016.29

8952031.93950132.76118426.79

7000.2512114.182836.40

6438122.96345111.9058113.15

82662.9514805.102034.59

30601.098532.941573.55

36861.313881.341242.81

124694.4517606.0747610.77

41741.4911523.971292.92

24120.869593.31821.86

42481.518923.081282.90

14560.5214865.122796.31

17160.6110143.50731.65

280401100.0028998100.004419100.00

: 1421. : ( 6 )

1421

% %

6823729.841607631.1084313

7532732.941419327.4689520

2400.104600.89700

5344423.371093721.1664381

73633.229031.758266

19640.8610962.123060

29771.307091.373686

75893.3248809.4412469

36821.614920.954174

20860.913260.632412

38521.683960.664248

7860.346701.301456

11620.515541.071716

228709100.0051692100.00280401

: 1421.

:

1412 1421.

( 7 )

:

( ).: . (1390-1420).: . : .* 15-24 .** 60 . (25-59 ). ( ). .

141240076157454811259638157454.83464006125963824481.12661441337597730520000

141385277169306251388311172692.43470778143910322640.81728241720738743521620

1414125324173767681442272180718.43649121156390922155.39768011867048689721740

1415122140178346681533781183697.14012800178346721718.15759201588219071822780

14161672651830463315660532013514210066192198721446.48787231414688127923080

141713576318786983167204219726.334216551206656821431.75809871613018481923080

1418153727192820441773948206317.94492716214223521203.728366231415015201123000

1419264326197901501761323209775.64551734221649720688.328435133810216965122660

1420272364203116451816470219365.84698084228083920143.038660735695717836422520

14212804012084688218643452230334821985234094419632.778817937102118623822340

. ( + ). ( + ). . SPSS : ( 8 )

( 8 ) : (R square) 0.96 ( ) 96%. ( 9 )

( 9) : f 13356.177 5% . (10) (

(10) :** = 0.07556 10% 0.8% 95%. 15-24 = 2.166 10% 21.6% 95%. . 60 = -0.644 10% 6.44% 95%. . (25-59 ) = 0.354 10% 3.54% 95%. = -21.502 10% 215.02% 95%. . = 6.799 10% 67.99% 95%. . = 1.346 10% 13.46% 95%. = 65.064 10% 650.64% 95%. . :

. ( 11)

(11) .

:

The Census Formula . . . (12) 1416-1421

141614171418141914201421

0-14789661980614948231505816343777570178398700

15-29459812448864944733741474765749316675488000

30-44368838437536394162993479911252383744439000

45-5910195689825591166564125271611740131630300

60110193811027979872418272281210574890882

183046331878698319282044197901502031164520846882

: ( ).: . (1390-1420).: . (13) 1421

0-1415-2930-4445-59 60

6478576540544454824728998

479137060257213964419

1421.

: Life Year ( ) . The Census Formula .

: - 14

EMBED Equation.3

: (1) - 14 :

(2) . - 14 :

.... : ( 14)

0-14403611130.0001611.18679E-0540364352403613520.000161.18678E-05

15-29243426210.0002375.62799E-0524345504243433060.0002375.62783E-05

30-44220178100.0001842.73415E-0522019837220181110.0001842.73411E-05

45-5959007860.0007559.69362E-05590301359010720.0007559.69315E-05

60 51242500.0016090.00027243512837451249480.0016080.000272393

0.0029460.0004648560.0029440.000464812

0.000890.0000930.000890.000093

:1- (1): ( )2- - 2.946 0.89 . 60 45- 59 . - 14 . 3- - 0.464 0.093 . 60 45- 59 15- 29 - 14 . (2): ( )

1- - 2.944 0.89 . 60 45-59 - 14 . 2- - 0.464 0.093 . 60 45- 59 15- 29 - 14 . Life Year (t) : (1) .

t :

t 0.005 " Life Year " 95%. (2) . t :

t 0.005 " Life Year " 95%. : Calendar Year ( ) . The Census Formula .

: - 14

: (1)

- 14 :

(2) - 14 :

.... : (15)

0-14324488160.00021.47617E-0532452055324490550.000199621.47616E-05

15-29231454010.0002495.9191E-0523148283231460860.000249055.91893E-05

30-44139243270.0002914.32337E-0513926354139246280.00029114.32328E-05

45-5953070710.0008390.000107781530929853073570.000838910.000107775

6026148890.0031540.000533866261901326155870.00314890.000533723

0.0047330.0007588330.004727570.000758682

0.000950.000150.00950.0015

: (1): ( )

1- - 4.733 0.95 . 60 45- 59 - 14 . 2- - 0.76 0.15 . 60 45- 59 15- 29 - 14 . (2): ( )

1- - 4.73 0.95 . 60 45-59 - 14 . 2- - 0.76 0.15 . 60 45- 59 15- 29 - 14 . Calendar Year (t) :

(1) .

t :

t 0.005 " Calendar Year " 95%. (2) .

t :

t 0.005 " Calendar Year " 95%.

: 1- .2- 1421 1405 . 31% 1405 . 17% 1405 .3- : . . . . . . . . 4- .5- ( ) : . 15-24 . 60 . (25-59 ). . . ( + ). . :

6- (R square) 0.96 ( ) 96%.7- f 13379.411 5% .8- = 0.07556 10% 0.8% 95%.9- 15-24 = 2.166 10% 21.6% 95%. 10- 60 = -0.644 10% 6.44% 95%. 11- (25-59 ) = 0.354 10% 3.54% 95%.12- = -21.502 10% 215.02% 95%.13- = 6.799 10% 67.99% 95%.14- = 1.346 10% 13.46% 95%.15- = 65.064 10% 650.64% 95%.16- .17- ( ) The Census Formula.18- : - 2.946 0.89 . 60 45- 59 - 14 . - 0.464 0.093 . 60 45- 59 15- 29 - 14 . 19- : - 4.733 0.95 . 60 45- 59 - 14 . - 0.76 0.15 . 60 45- 59 15- 29 - 14 . :

1- .2- .3- ...4- .5- .6- .7- .8- .9- .10- . 20% .11- .12- .13- .14- .15- . 16- . 17- ( ) . .

:

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* .

( 1405 =100

* .

** .

( 5% EMBED Equation.3 .

** ( ) EMBED Equation.3 ( + ) EMBED Equation.3 .

PAGE

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