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    12- 6 1994 39-92.

    13- ____________________ 1995.

    14- / 44 5-20.

    : : 1- A . M. Best Company, Explanation of Best's Ratings (Oldwick, N.J.: A. M. Best

    Company, 1991), P 2-3. 2- A Study Presented to The Egyptian Insurance Supervisory Authority by

    Faculty of Commerce - Cairo University - Mathematics & Insurance Dept. and The Government Actuary Dep. (GAD), London, September 1996.

    3- Ambrose, Jan M., and Seward, J. Allen. "Bests Ratings, Financial Ratios and Prior Probabilities in Insolvency Protection," The Journal of Risk and Insurance, no. 55, June 1988, pp. 229-244.

    4- American Insurance Association, Property/Liability Early Warning Proposal, Prepared by Aetna Life & Casualty Company, 1978.

    5- Bar-Niv, Ran, "Insolvency Prediction for Property-Liability Insurers: New Statistical Measures and the Effects of Alternative Accounting Practices. "Ph. D. Dissertation, Ohio State University, 1983.

    6- ____________, "Accounting Procedures, Market Data, Cash-Flow Figures, and Insolvency Classification: The Case of the Insurance Industry," Accounting Review, no. 65, July 1990, pp. 578-604.

    7- ____________, and Hershbarger, Robert A. "Classifying Financial Distress in the Life Insurance Industry," The Journal of Risk and Insurance, no. 57, March 1990, pp. 110-136.

    8- ____________, and Smith, Michael L. Detecting Financial Distress in P/C," Risk Management, February, 1987, pp. 38-45.

    9- ____________, and McDonald, J. "Identifying Financial Distress in the Insurance Industry: A Synthesis of Methodological and Empirical Issues," The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 1992.

    10- Barrese, James. "Assessing the Financial Condition of Insurers," CPCU Journal, no. 43, March 1990, pp. 37-46.

    11- Black, K., and Skipper, H., Life Insurance, 12th ed. Englewood Cliiffs: Prentice Hall, Inc., 1994, pp 975-1018.

    12- Cheong, I. "An Analysis Of Solvency Regulation and Failure Prediction In The U.S. Life Insurance Industry." Ph. D. Dissertation, Georgia State University, 1991, PP 100-107.

  • 45

    13- Chubb's Brochure: What should you look for when evaluating an insurance company?, 1998). On line. http://www.insurance.com/insurance library.

    14- Cummins, J. D., Harrington, S., and Niehaus, J. "An Economic Analysis of Risk-Based Capital Requirements in the Property-Liability Insurance Industry, Journal of Insurance Regulation, 1993.

    15- Daykin, C. D., Devitt, E. R., Khan, M. R., and Mccaughn, J. P. "The Solvency of General Insurance Company," The Journal of Institute of Actuaries, Vol. 3, Part 2, 1984.

    16- Denenberg, Herbert S. "Is 'A-Plus" Really a Passing Grade?," The Journal of Risk and Insurance, no. 34, September 1967, pp. 371-384.

    17- Eck, James R. "A Critical Analysis of State Regulation of Insurance." Ph. D. Dissertation, University of Illinois at Urbana -Champaing, 1979.

    18- _____________. "Detecting Financially Troubled Property-Liability Insurers," Journal of Business Research, no. 10, 1982, pp. 445-458.

    19- Finsinger, J., and Pauly, M. "Reserves Levels and Reserve Requirements for Profit-Maximizing Insurance Firms. Reprinted (1991) in G. Dionne and S. Harrington, eds. Foundations of Insurance Economics. Boston, Kluwer, 1984.

    20- Grace, M. F., Harrington, S., and Klein, R., An Analysis of the FAST Monitoring System, A report presented to the NAIC's Financial Analysis Research and Development Working Group, December 2, 1995.

    21- _____________________________________, Risk-Based Capital and Solvency Screening: Hypotheses and Empirical Tests, National Association of Insurance Commissioners, 1998, pp. 1-36.

    22- Joy, O., "Introduction of Financial Management," 3rd ed, Richard Irwin, 1983. 23- Kimball, S. L., Essay in Insurance Regulation, (Ann Arbor: Spencer L. Kimball,

    1966), p. 3 24- Klein, R., "Solvency Monitoring of Insurance Companies:

    Regulators' Role and Future Direction". Presented at New York University Salamon Center Conference on the Dynamics of the Insurance Industry, 1993.

    25- Krohm, G. C., "A Risk Manager's Guide to Insurer Insolvency," Risk Management, December 1992, pp. 22-26.

    26- Lamm-Tennant, Starks, J. L., and Stokes, L. "A Cost-Effective Approach for Regulating Insurance Company Solvency". Presented at New York University Salamon Center Conference on the Dynamics of the Insurance Industry, (1993).

    27- McDowll, B. Deregulation and Competition in the Insurance Industry. New York: Quorum Books, 1989.

    28- Meier, K. J. The Political Economy of Regulation: The Case of Insurance. State University of New York press: Suny, 1988.

    29- Munch, P., and Smallwood, D. Theory of Solvency Regulation in the Property and Casualty Insurance Industry. In G. Fromm, ed. Studies in Public Regulation. Cambridge, Mass., MIT Press, 1982.

    30- National Association of Insurance Commissioners. NAIC Property-liability Risk-Based Capital Formula Exposure Draft, 1993.

  • 46

    31- Nektarios, M ., "The Role of the State in the Insurance Market," Journal of Insurance Regulation, 54, March 1987, p 340-349.

    32- Pinches, George E., Trieschmann, James S. "The Efficiency of Alternative Models for Solvency Surveillance in the Insurance Industry," The Journal of Risk and Insurance, no. 41, December 1974, pp. 563-578.

    33- Pritchett, S. T., Schmit J. T., Doerpinghaus, H. I., and Athearn J. L., Risk Management and Insurance, New York: West Publishing Company, 1996, PP. 638-658.

    34- Schmit, J. T., "The Hidden Regulators and the NAIC: Innovators in Improving Consumer Protection," Journal of Insurance Regulation, 6, March 1986, p 31.

    35- The Insurance Forum, September/October, 1993. 36- Thornton, John H., and Meador, Joseph W. "Comments on the validity of the

    NAIC Early Warning System for predicting Failures Among P-L Insurance Companies," CPCU Annals, no. 30, September 1977, pp. 191-211.

    37- TRAC Insurance Services Ltd, Life TRAC Early Warning Solvency Tests and Scores (Ratings), 1998. On line. http://www.trac.com/.

    38- Trieschmann, James S., and Pinches, George E. "A Multivariate Model for Predicting Financially Distressed P-L Insurers," The Journal of Risk and Insurance, no. 40, September 1973, pp. 327-33.

    39- Willenborg, M. In Search of Candidate Predictor Variables: Financial Statement Analysis in the Property-liability Insurance Industry. Journal of Insurance Regulation, 1992.

  • 74

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    12- Premiums in long-tailed lines to total premiums

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    17- Other invested assets to surplus

    18- Growth in liquid assets

    19- Growth in agents' balances

    20- Managing producer exposure 1 )1 (

    21- Managing producer exposure 2 )1 (

    22- Cash outflow test

    23- Gross premiums written to surplus

    24- Reserves to surplus

    25- Growth in gross premiums written

  • 15

    (3) SIRI

    : 11 % 009 -1 % 022 - A1

    %.003

    - ): -2% 33- ( /

    %.33 : -3

    %52

    : -4 - + =

    %.001 / : -5

    ( % )6 %.01 % 4, 5

    : : -6 -

    %05 % 01-

    / : -7 %.501

  • 25

    / : -8 %.04

    = : -9 %.52 : /

    / : -01 .%52 :

    : -11 %52 : /