Банковский сектор: риски и возможности Наталия Орлова...
DESCRIPTION
Банковский сектор: риски и возможности Наталия Орлова Главный экономист Альфа-Банка. 4. Чувствительность к внешним рискам низкая. Валютная составляющая розничных кредитов и депозитов. Динамика внешнего долга банков. Источники : ЦБ РФ, Альфа Банк. Ситуация с плохими кредитами. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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CONFIDENTIAL
DRAFT
, $ 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 912 14.2 24.9 32 50.1 101.2 163.6 166.3 127.2 144 163 185 , % 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 912 0.10894089264173704 0.13114622388859132 0.12464620989211153 0.14788492307692308 0.1908189630478373 0.19957167701863354 0.17435921775747629 0.13070091743119266 0.12983641473154858 0.1260834054002114 0.12477237472179133
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 41153 0.18 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.14000000000000001 0.12 0.11 0.09 0.06 0.04
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 41153 0.3 0.26 0.24 0.17 0.13 0.27 0.26 0.19 0.18 0.19
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CONFIDENTIAL
DRAFT
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 41153 1.2E-2 1.4E-2 1.9E-2 2.7E-2 3.2000000000000001E-2 3.6999999999999998E-2 6.8000000000000005E-2 7.0999999999999994E-2 5.1999999999999998E-2 4.3999999999999997E-2
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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 41153 8.4000000000000005E-2 4.2000000000000003E-2 3.3000000000000002E-2 2.4E-2 3.6999999999999998E-2 4.4999999999999998E-2 9.1999999999999998E-2 8.5999999999999993E-2 6.9000000000000006E-2 6.5000000000000002E-2 /
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 41153 5.32 3.01 2.72 1.88 2.89 2.13 1.79 1.84 1.75 1.63
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2003-2008, % / . . . . 0.37623869169627494 0.33517417768671853 0.4269622437756091 0.41221825056068589 0.77011523180768793 2011, % / . . . . 0.23141547108415916 0.20914646567529016 0.22660814600155699 0.26 0.35899999999999999 2012, % /
. . . . 0.1 9296721362647884 0.1957290159520888 0.17158898231772723 0.16882159362693083 0.41673412173501001
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CONFIDENTIAL
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, , 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 412 26 24 38 40 39 50 61
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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 412 0.37 0.45 0.51 0.55000000000000004 0.48 0.44 0.48
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4.66 4.7300000000000004 4.7300000000000004 5.43 5.43 5.43 5.89 5.82 5.54 5.56 5.77 5.76 5.8 5.94 5.98 6.29 6.32 6.24 6.26 5.98 5.57 5.87 5.87 5.75 5.83 5.67 5.96 5.88 6.14 5.92 5.9 5.79 5.81 6.29 6.45 6.49 6.69 6.89 6.11 5.6 5.37 5.42 5.61 6.18 5.6 5.95 6.45 6.73 6.35 5.88 6.08 6.09 5.98 6.42 6.38 6.36 6.43 6.64 6.27 5.81 5.5 5.47 5.62 5.8 6 5.52 5.86 5.93 5.85 5.8 5.83 5.79 5.76 5.78 5.96 6.23 6.24 6.14 6.17 6.27 6.07 5.76 5.82 5.68 5.75 5.74 5.07 5.25 5.87 6.08 6.02 5.58 5.22 5. 51 5.89 5.84 5.35 5.03 5.94 5.97 5.67 5.69 5.17 4.95 4.71 5.28 5.5 5.1100000000000003 5.17 5.46 5.25 5.24 5.4 5.88 6.03 5.88 5.53 5.63 5.87 6.24 6.4 6.38 6.46 5.98 6.08 5.75 5.79 6.03 5.99 6.08 6.36 6.38 6.44 6.36 6.34 6.3 6.09 5.99 6.25 40266 40267 40268 40269 40270 40273 40274 40275 40276 40277 40280 40281 40282 40283 40284 40287 40288 40289 40290 40291 40294 40295 40296 40297 40298 40302 40303 40304 40305 40309 40310 40311 40312 40315 40316 40317 40318 40319 40322 40323 40324 40325 40326 40329 40330 40331 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40577 40578 40581 40582 40583 40584 4058 5 40588 40589 40590 40591 40592 40595 40596 40598 40599 40602 40603 40604 40605 40606 40607 40611 40612 40613 40616 40617 40618 40619 40620 40623 40624 40625 40626 40627 40630 40631 40632 40633 40634 40637 40638 40639 40640 40641 40644 40645 40646 40647 40648 40651 40652 40653 40654 40655 40658 40659 40660 40661 40662 40666 40667 40668 40669 40673 40674 40675 40676 40679 40680 40681 40682 40683 40686 40687 40688 40689 40690 40693 40694 40695 40696 40697 40700 40701 40702 40703 40704 40708 40709 40710 40711 40714 40715 40716 40717 40718 40721 40722 40723 40724 40725 40728 40729 40730 40731 40732 40735 40736 40737 40738 40739 40742 40743 40744 40745 40746 40749 40750 40751 40752 40753 40756 40757 40758 40759 40760 40763 40764 40765 40766 40767 40770 40771 40772 40773 40774 40777 40778 40779 40780 40781 40784 40785 40786 40787 40788 40791 40792 40793 40794 40795 40798 40799 40800 40801 40802 40805 40806 40807 40808 40809 40812 40813 40814 40815 40816 40819 40820 40821 40822 40823 40826 40827 40828 40829 40830 40833 40834 40835 40836 40837 40840 40841 40842 40843 40844 40847 40848 40849 40850 40854 40855 40856 40857 40858 40861 40862 40863 40864 40865 40868 40869 40870 40871 40872 40875 40876 40877 40878 40879 40882 40883 40884 40885 40886 40889 40890 40891 40892 40893 40896 40897 40898 40899 40900 40903 40904 40905 40906 40907 40918 40919 40920 40921 40924 40925 40926 40927 40928 40931 40932 40933 40934 40935 40938 40939 40940 40941 40 942 40945 40946 40947 40948 40949 40952 40953 40954 40955 40956 40959 40960 40961 40963 40966 40967 40968 40969 40970 40973 40974 40975 40979 40980 40981 40982 40983 40984 40987 40988 40989 40990 40991 40994 40995 40996 40997 40998 41001 41002 41003 41004 41005 41008 41009 41010 41011 41012 41015 41016 41017 41018 41019 41022 41023 41024 41025 41026 41027 41031 41032 41033 41034 41039 41040 41041 41043 41044 41045 41046 41047 41050 41051 41052 41053 41054 41057 41058 41059 41060 41061 41064 41065 41066 41067 41068 41069 41073 41074 41075 41078 41079 41080 41081 41082 41085 41086 41087 41088 41089 41092 41093 41094 41095 41096 41099 41100 41101 41102 41103 41106 41107 41108 41109 41110 41113 41114 41115 41116 41117 41120 41121 41122 41123 41124 41127 41128 41129 41130 41131 41134 41135 41136 41137 41138 41141 41142 41143 41144 41145 41148 41149 41150 41151 41152 41155 41156 41157 41158 41159 41162 41163 41164 41165 41166 41169 41170 41171 41172 41173 41176 41177 41178 41179 41180 41183 41184 41185 41 186 41187 41190 41191 41192 41193 41194 41197 41198 41199 41200 41201 41204 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25
6
6
4
.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 9M12 105.62202906451722 161.94355048273934 282.72162378911048 305.46361050141508 302.2546757960028 342.11434347977666 415.05563305869481 488.91054228072272
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 9M12 25 42 64 50 53 58 86 96.660000000000011
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 9M12 14.586726893676161 28.009418913786561 40.012627291242367 49.076718856364877 71.253703703703707 79.676902887139107 86.039130434782592 86.559870550161818 .
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 9M12 42.911674896566865 71.546764747036619 96.748844642661382 120.32604232363603 112.48408081775388 119.26689011602387 135.231758245653 147.78848684549095
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 9M12 100 121 197 232 241 240 251 261.33999999999997 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 9M12 0.49601367897651027 0.453585124465399 0.43167691672127845 0.46550627099593067 0.45318909964063531 0.42817878105795448 0.39681622725695159 0.37838161329164038
7
7
4
CONFIDENTIAL
DRAFT
- 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878 39052 39417 39 783 40148 40513 40878 -24 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878 - 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878
39052 39417 39 783 40148 40513 40878
39783 40148 40513 40878 41153 2079.498 999.05399999999997 304.34500000000003 961.7 1564.2249999999999 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878 - 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878
39783 40148 40513 40878 41153 322.09800000000001 46.994999999999997 2.286 29.780999999999999 264.11599999999999 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878 - 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878 39052 394 17 39783 40148 40513 40878
39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878 .
39783 40148 40513 40878 41153 968.80400000000009 377.05100000000004 19.06899999999996 220.61899999999991 522 , % 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878 0.28744481367196772 0.26495046026280661 5.8547743322075407E-2 0.1820138602425542 0.22203317737133135
(1)
8
8
4
, %
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1.3139403930263983E-2 2.2688726214757322E-2 3.634551377718867E-2 5.4570235877035689E-2 7.6724135292551413E-2 8.9363826387603221E-2 9.732 3319951035756E-2 9.2091114263075063E-2 9.0426201105631598E-2 0.10169789981175104
9
4
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 48.8608 27338129482 54.698298611111099 65.714182509505704 88.946138211382134 64.278564625850365 129.33862433862436 187.97377049180326 196.30193719115047 187.27793793939401 176.02898550724638 191.88888888888891 207.44450440277774
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2.7241366906474695 8.8059374999999775 4.5925095057034255 -13.976626016260127 -71.507149659863941 21.815476190476261 76.498360655737685 52.183425942893706 -4.5782438787876174 -66.708695652173844 -91.321777777777697 -91.872691152777804
10
10
4
,
,
( II III)
,
CONFIDENTIAL
DRAFT
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
US$m
CONFIDENTIAL
DRAFT
, $ 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 912 14.2 24.9 32 50.1 101.2 163.6 166.3 127.2 144 163 185 , % 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 912 0.10894089264173704 0.13114622388859132 0.12464620989211153 0.14788492307692308 0.1908189630478373 0.19957167701863354 0.17435921775747629 0.13070091743119266 0.12983641473154858 0.1260834054002114 0.12477237472179133
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 41153 0.18 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.14000000000000001 0.12 0.11 0.09 0.06 0.04
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 41153 0.3 0.26 0.24 0.17 0.13 0.27 0.26 0.19 0.18 0.19
()
CONFIDENTIAL
DRAFT
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 41153 1.2E-2 1.4E-2 1.9E-2 2.7E-2 3.2000000000000001E-2 3.6999999999999998E-2 6.8000000000000005E-2 7.0999999999999994E-2 5.1999999999999998E-2 4.3999999999999997E-2
/
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 41153 8.4000000000000005E-2 4.2000000000000003E-2 3.3000000000000002E-2 2.4E-2 3.6999999999999998E-2 4.4999999999999998E-2 9.1999999999999998E-2 8.5999999999999993E-2 6.9000000000000006E-2 6.5000000000000002E-2 /
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 41153 5.32 3.01 2.72 1.88 2.89 2.13 1.79 1.84 1.75 1.63
4
3
2003-2008, % / . . . . 0.37623869169627494 0.33517417768671853 0.4269622437756091 0.41221825056068589 0.77011523180768793 2011, % / . . . . 0.23141547108415916 0.20914646567529016 0.22660814600155699 0.26 0.35899999999999999 2012, % /
. . . . 0.1 9296721362647884 0.1957290159520888 0.17158898231772723 0.16882159362693083 0.41673412173501001
4
4
?
CONFIDENTIAL
DRAFT
, , 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 412 26 24 38 40 39 50 61
5-7 (. )
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 412 0.37 0.45 0.51 0.55000000000000004 0.48 0.44 0.48
5
4
40544 40575 40603 40634 40664 40695 40725 40756 40787 40817 40848 40878 40909 40940 40969 41000 41030 41061 41091 41122 41153 324 461 719 768 942.9 1177.2 1230.0999999999999 1433.8 1800.8 1698 1532.7 916.5 695.4 528.5 548 559.70000000000005 689.9 601.29999999999995 701.1 1005.9 1102.9000000000001
40544 40575 40603 40634 40664 40695 40725 40756 40787 40817 40848 40878 40909 40940 40969 41000 41030 41061 41091 41122 41153 322.2 316 312.3 320.2 311 312.2 311.3 309 506.8 971 1191.5999999999999 1212.0999999999999 1366.4 1257.7 1469.4 1837.7 1696 2250.6 2576.9 2402.6 2350.6 , % 40544 40575 40603 40634 40664 40695 40725 40756 40787 40817 40848 40878 40909 40940 40969 41000 41030 41061 41091 41122 1.9459518059227764E-2 2.2948921666499297E-2 3.0323969255558754E-2 3.183 4537635666856E-2 3.6081376611418053E-2 4.2268550314161983E-2 4.3310040208036547E-2 4.784363247042029E-2 6.0026845078922447E-2 6.9389559068219628E-2 6.830016109441514E-2 5.1134466398414506E-2 5.0105104557771056E-2 4.3700365515317877E-2 4.8573423542725064E-2 5.6875928201673018E-2 5.519722382880278E-2 6.4426858719053348E-2 7.2698562662035948E-2 7.4875061782634963E-2 7.5303634896753235E-2
40266 40267 40268 40269 40270 40273 40274 40275 40276 40277 40280 40281 40282 40283 40284 40287 40288 40289 40290 40291 40294 40295 40296 40297 40298 40302 40303 40304 40305 40309 40310 40311 40312 40315 40316 40317 40318 40319 40322 40323 40324 40325 40326 40329 40330 40331 40332 40333 40336 40337 40338 40339 40340 40344 40345 40346 40347 40350 40351 40352 40353 40354 40357 40358 40359 40360 40361 40364 40365 40366 40367 40368 40371 40372 40373 40374 40375 40378 40379 40380 40381 40382 40385 40386 40387 40388 40389 40392 40393 40394 40395 40396 40399 40400 40401 40402 40403 40406 40407 40408 40409 40410 40413 40414 40415 40416 40417 40420 40421 40422 40423 40424 40427 40428 40429 40430 40431 40434 40435 40436 40437 40438 40441 40442 40443 40444 40445 40448 40449 40450 40451 40452 40455 40456 40457 40458 40459 40462 40463 40464 40465 40466 40469 40470 40471 40472 40473 40476 40477 40478 40479 40480 40483 40484 40485 40490 40491 40492 40493 40494 40495 40497 40498 40499 40500 40501 40504 40505 40506 40507 40508 40511 40512 40513 40514 40515 40518 40519 40520 405 21 40522 40525 40526 40527 40528 40529 40532 40533 40534 40535 40536 40539 40540 40541 40542 40554 40555 40556 40557 40560 40561 40562 40563 40564 40567 40568 40569 40570 40571 40574 40575 40576 40577 40578 40581 40582 40583 40584 40585 40588 40589 40590 40591 40592 40595 40596 40598 40599 40602 40603 40604 40605 40606 40607 40611 40612 40613 40616 40617 40618 40619 40620 40623 40624 40625 40626 40627 40630 40631 40632 40633 40634 40637 40638 40639 40640 40641 40644 40645 40646 40647 40648 40651 40652 40653 40654 40655 40658 40659 40660 40661 40662 40666 40667 40668 40669 40673 40674 40675 40676 40679 40680 40681 40682 40683 40686 40687 40688 40689 40690 40693 40694 40695 40696 40697 40700 40701 40702 40703 40704 40708 40709 40710 40711 40714 40715 40716 40717 40718 40721 40722 40723 40724 40725 40728 40729 40730 40731 40732 40735 40736 40737 40738 40739 40742 40743 40744 40745 40746 40749 40750 40751 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2.66 2.83 2.81 2.86 3.09 3.46 3.29 3.09 3.11 3.11 3.03 2. 99 2.9 2.86 2.83 2.86 2.82 2.85 2.81 2.81 2.88 2.83 2.87 3.18 3.33 3.15 3.26 3.46 3.74 4.78 3.66 3.18 2.95 2.88 2.94 3.03 2.99 2.95 2.98 3.01 3.08 2.87 2.87 2.93 2.92 2.89 2.91 2.92 3.26 3.76 3.39 3.08 2.98 2.94 2.9 2.87 2.88 2.84 2.81 2.84 2.86 2.86 2.96 2.99 2.93 2.91 2.87 2.87 2.83 2.84 2.88 2.88 2.83 2.81 2.83 2.86 2.86 2.9 2.91 2.94 2.94 2.94 2.94 2.96 3.01 3.31 3.26 3.24 3.23 3.19 3.19 3.18 3.14 3.17 3.16 3.16 3.16 3.16 3.16 3.16 3.16 3.15 3.16 3.16 3.16 3.16 3.15 3.16 3.15 3.15 3.14 3.14 3.14 3.15 3.14 3.15 3.15 3.15 3.15 3.14 3.15 3.16 3.16 3.17 3.18 3.28 3.37 3.48 4.51 4.6399999999999997 4.04 3.58 3.52 3.52 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.51 3.54 3.99 3.77 3.73 3.99 3.91 4.75 4.7300000000000004 4.3600000000000003 3.89 3.82 3.79 3.77 3.76 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.76 3.79 3.77 3.77 3.78 3.77 3.78 3.77 3.81 3.86 3.82 3.83 3.82 3.8 3.81 3.79 3.73 3.74 3.74 3.74 3.74 3.74 3.74 3.74 3.74 3.77 3.76 3.78 4.04 4.08 4.13 5.08 5.03 4.66 4.22 4.13 3.99 3.94 3.9 3.96 3.92 3.81 3.83 3.86 3.86 3.85 3.84 3.84 3.89 3.85 3.86 4.07 4.45 4.82 4.99 4.32 4.0199999999999996 3.89 3.91 3.88 3.84 3.79 3.76 3.89 4.13 4.21 4.9800000000000004 5.29 5.0999999999999996 5.32 4.91 5.07 5.05 5.37 5.32 5.51 5.31 5.31 5.34 4.96 4.71 4.47 4.43 4.75 5.22 5.34 5.38 5.42 5.47 5.44 5.34 5.46 5.51 5.53 5.73 5.81 5.7 5.51 5.65 5.6 5.32 5.0999999999999996 5.22 5.15 5.18 5.04 5.23 5.42 5.55 5.53 5.14 5.37 5.43 5.36 5.31 5.31 5.74 5.84 5.86 5.77 5.49 5.39 5.38 5.37 5.44 5.72 6.06 5.83 5.97 5.74 5.65 5.55 5.66 5.79 6.09 6.46 6.34 6.19 6.25 6.24 5.63 5.63 5.63 4.97 4.79 4.71 4.6500000000000004 4.71 4.93 4.9400000000000004 4.95 5.03 5.28 5.85 6.03 6.07 6.09 5.49 4.87 4.66 4.49 4.51 4.45 4.4400000000000004 4.43 4.5199999999999996 4.5599999999999996 4.55 4.58 4.58 4.5999999999999996 4.67 4.68 4.68 4.66 4.6500000000000004 5.21 5.3 5.01 4.78 4.6900000000000004 4.67 4.92 5.4 5.41 5.13 5.05 5.31 5.51 5.5 5.56 5.33 5.28 5.8 6.07 5.86 5.92 5.99 5.77 5.99 5.24 4.79 4.78 4.66 4.7300000000000004 4.7300000000000004 5.43 5.43 5.43 5.89 5.82 5.54 5.56 5.77 5.76 5.8 5.94 5.98 6.29 6.32 6.24 6.26 5.98 5.57 5.87 5.87 5.75 5.83 5.67 5.96 5.88 6.14 5.92 5.9 5.79 5.81 6.29 6.45 6.49 6.69 6.89 6.11 5.6 5.37 5.42 5.61 6.18 5.6 5.95 6.45 6.73 6.35 5.88 6.08 6.09 5.98 6.42 6.38 6.36 6.43 6.64 6.27 5.81 5.5 5.47 5.62 5.8 6 5.52 5.86 5.93 5.85 5.8 5.83 5.79 5.76 5.78 5.96 6.23 6.24 6.14 6.17 6.27 6.07 5.76 5.82 5.68 5.75 5.74 5.07 5.25 5.87 6.08 6.02 5.58 5.22 5. 51 5.89 5.84 5.35 5.03 5.94 5.97 5.67 5.69 5.17 4.95 4.71 5.28 5.5 5.1100000000000003 5.17 5.46 5.25 5.24 5.4 5.88 6.03 5.88 5.53 5.63 5.87 6.24 6.4 6.38 6.46 5.98 6.08 5.75 5.79 6.03 5.99 6.08 6.36 6.38 6.44 6.36 6.34 6.3 6.09 5.99 6.25 40266 40267 40268 40269 40270 40273 40274 40275 40276 40277 40280 40281 40282 40283 40284 40287 40288 40289 40290 40291 40294 40295 40296 40297 40298 40302 40303 40304 40305 40309 40310 40311 40312 40315 40316 40317 40318 40319 40322 40323 40324 40325 40326 40329 40330 40331 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2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25
6
6
4
.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 9M12 105.62202906451722 161.94355048273934 282.72162378911048 305.46361050141508 302.2546757960028 342.11434347977666 415.05563305869481 488.91054228072272
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 9M12 25 42 64 50 53 58 86 96.660000000000011
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 9M12 14.586726893676161 28.009418913786561 40.012627291242367 49.076718856364877 71.253703703703707 79.676902887139107 86.039130434782592 86.559870550161818 .
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 9M12 42.911674896566865 71.546764747036619 96.748844642661382 120.32604232363603 112.48408081775388 119.26689011602387 135.231758245653 147.78848684549095
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 9M12 100 121 197 232 241 240 251 261.33999999999997 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 9M12 0.49601367897651027 0.453585124465399 0.43167691672127845 0.46550627099593067 0.45318909964063531 0.42817878105795448 0.39681622725695159 0.37838161329164038
7
7
4
CONFIDENTIAL
DRAFT
- 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878 39052 39417 39 783 40148 40513 40878 -24 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878 - 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878
39052 39417 39 783 40148 40513 40878
39783 40148 40513 40878 41153 2079.498 999.05399999999997 304.34500000000003 961.7 1564.2249999999999 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878 - 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878
39783 40148 40513 40878 41153 322.09800000000001 46.994999999999997 2.286 29.780999999999999 264.11599999999999 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878 - 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878 39052 394 17 39783 40148 40513 40878
39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878 .
39783 40148 40513 40878 41153 968.80400000000009 377.05100000000004 19.06899999999996 220.61899999999991 522 , % 39052 39417 39783 40148 40513 40878 0.28744481367196772 0.26495046026280661 5.8547743322075407E-2 0.1820138602425542 0.22203317737133135
(1)
8
8
4
, %
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1.3139403930263983E-2 2.2688726214757322E-2 3.634551377718867E-2 5.4570235877035689E-2 7.6724135292551413E-2 8.9363826387603221E-2 9.732 3319951035756E-2 9.2091114263075063E-2 9.0426201105631598E-2 0.10169789981175104
9
4
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 48.8608 27338129482 54.698298611111099 65.714182509505704 88.946138211382134 64.278564625850365 129.33862433862436 187.97377049180326 196.30193719115047 187.27793793939401 176.02898550724638 191.88888888888891 207.44450440277774
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2.7241366906474695 8.8059374999999775 4.5925095057034255 -13.976626016260127 -71.507149659863941 21.815476190476261 76.498360655737685 52.183425942893706 -4.5782438787876174 -66.708695652173844 -91.321777777777697 -91.872691152777804
10
10
4
,
,
( II III)
,
CONFIDENTIAL
DRAFT
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
US$m