第 二 章 简单线性回归模型

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计量经济学. 第 二 章 简单线性回归模型. 引子 : 中国旅游业总收入将超过 3000 亿美元吗?. 未来我国旅游需求将快速增长,根据中国政府所制定的 远景目标,到 2020 年,中国入境旅游人数将达到 2.1 亿人 次;国际旅游外汇收入 580 亿美元,国内旅游收入 2500 亿 美元。到 2020 年,中国旅游业总收入将超过 3000 亿美元, 相当于国内生产总值的 8% 至 11% 。 (来源: 《2008 年中国旅行社发展研究咨询报告 》 ) (参考现状:第一产业占 GDP 的 15% ,建筑业占 GDP 的 7% ) - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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    SUMMARY OUTPUT

    Multiple R0.9857883944

    R Square0.9717787586

    Adjusted R Square0.9682511034

    1.0759280701

    10

    dfSSMSFSignificance F

    1318.895030303318.895030303275.47441854380.0000001754

    89.2609696971.1576212121

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    Coefficientst StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95% 95.0% 95.0%

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    X Variable 11.96606060610.118455781916.59742204510.00000017541.69290090652.23922030561.69290090652.2392203056

    RESIDUAL OUTPUT

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    14.3727272727-0.3727272727

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    38.3048484848-0.8048484848

    410.2709090909-0.1709090909

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