-- --

: , , , : ? : http://www.solarviews.com/browse/venus/venusmar.jpg : http://www.solarviews.com/raw/earth/earthx.jpg : http://www.solarviews.com/raw/mars/mars060.jpg

? = , , , ?

-GCM

Matsui and Abe (1986)Abe and Matsui (1988)

T T^4

=

: () A :.

1999

1

1 ( 1 ), TaTg

, 1999

1999

Komabayashi (1969), Ingersoll (1969)().?.

.

1 Nakajima et al (1992) 1 , : ( =0.01 Kg/m^2)

1 , ., .

1 Nakajima et al (1992)

..

, . .

Simpson (1927)Gold (1964)Komabayashi (1967)Ingersoll (1969) Abe and Matsui (1988) Kasting (1988)Nakajima et al. (1992)Sugiyama et al. (2005)

Abe and Matsui (1988)

3

1 Nakajima et al. (1992) ( =0.01 Kg/m^2)

Nakajima et al 3 1. ?, 2.?1 ?3. ?

0. ?

, : () : , (Manabe et al, 1967) : Mellor and Yamada (1974) : swamp ocean ( 0) : : T21, L32 (64x32x32 ) :

. : 280 K : 1000 2000

1600 W/m^2 . -

OLR

1d vs 3d)11 3

1 1 . Tg-OLR

S1380S1570

S=1380 ()S=1570()

S=1800

(S1800)S1380S1800

: S=1600 W/m^2 1300 W/m^2 : 1280 W/m^2 :.S1600 S1300S1600 S1280

.1300 / 4.0 = 325 W/m^2 .

3 . 1 .?

( 7 )!?Hoffman et al. (1998)Budyko (1969), Sellers (1969), Ikeda and Tajika (1999)

Weatherald and Manabe (1975) : Jenkins and Smith (1999)Hyde, Crowley, Baum and Peltier (2000)Baum and Crowley (2001)Poulsen, Pierrehumbert and Jacob (2001) :

(2000)

0 :

1 .Budyko (1969), Sellers (1969) 1 . () - ()

Budyko

Budyko () = a + bT

.Budyko GCM .S=1380 W/m**2 GCM .0TK)0.5 TK)

(Budyko )

()--

2

.

3

(Large ice cap instability)(small ice cap instability)

Budyko 3large ice cap instability ??..EBM GCM Snowball Earth ., EBM ., .

GCM Snowball Earth Weatherald and Manabe (1975)Baum and Crowley (2001)+CO2

:AGCM5.3, : () : , (Manabe et al, 1967) : Mellor and Yamada (1974) : T21, L32 : swamp ocean ( 0) -> 0 -> 0.5 263K

280 K : 5000 60000

EBM GCM GCM EBM

GCM EBM

20 large ice-cap instability GCM

, S=1295 W/m^2 S1300 -> S1280 -> S1260 .

S=1280S=1260

20S1300 -> S1280 -> S1260 S1260

small ice-cap instability ?GCMEBMS1560S1380S1260

S=1710 W/m^2 S=1720 W/m^2 .?

S1600 S1700

Lee and North (1995) 20

PIA00114.tif