台北大學不動產與城鄉環境系 碩博士班專題演講 不動產財務 (real estate...
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台北大學不動產與城鄉環境系 碩博士班專題演講 不動產財務 (real estate finance) --- 分析方法與實務應用. 林左裕 現職：國立政治大學地政系 教授 國際認證理財規劃師 CFP 講座教授 華視空中學院 「期貨與選擇權」主講教授 學經歷：美國德州農工大學 (Texas A&M University) 不動產金融博士 美國北卡州 Appalachian State University 商學院訪問講座教授 北京科技大學管理學院 EMBA 訪問講座教授 內政部地政司不動產證券化估價報告審查委員 - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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(real estate finance) ---
CFP (Texas A&M University) Appalachian State University EMBA : () ()
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Q&A
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(real estate finance)Logistic (or Logit )and Probit(discriminant analysis) (time series analysis)(survival analysis)AHPDEA
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or (Simple or Linear Regression)(X, )Y=a + bXabXY()() --- (Y, ) vs (X)--- (capital asset pricing model, CAPM) (Y vs x)--- vs
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(Multiple Regression) y = a +b1x1 + b2x2 + --- (Xi)(collinearity) --- (Y) vs (X1) ? (X2) ? (X3) --- (Arbitrage Pricing Theory, APT) (Y vs x1(or), x2(), x3(), --- Y vs x1(), x2(), x3(), X4() --- e.g., Hedonic Regression Model
5, 15
ExcelSASEViewSPSS
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()(0.7)(VIF, Variance Inflation Factor)VIFk= 1/ (1- R2Xk)R2XkxkR2XkVIFVIF>=10xk
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X, Y, Y, ei~N(0, 1)ei 0, 1,
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(qualitative)(dummy variable)--- ,--- , =10y
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k(k-1), D1D2Di1= 1, i 0, Di2= 1, i 0, (Di1, Di2) (1,0) (0,1)(0,0)
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---(Logistic Regression) (Probit Regression)Y=0 or 1---(Logistic Regression) (Probit Regression)
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(Logistic Regression) P/1-P P 1-P
:
P
X
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(Logistic Regression)Logit regression:--- cutoff point = 0.5, 010.5(default )---risk: : (0+70)/2 = 35
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(Fuzzy)--- discrete continuous.--- , --- , (Artificial Neural Network)--- , ---
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(cointegration)(causality)--- or REITinflation--- : (stationary)
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(option) or (real option)--- Black-Scholes Model, Binomial ()Model, PDE, Simulation --- ?
(survival analysis)--- --- Logit
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(survival analysis)TkTtXX
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(Analytic Hierarchy Analysis, AHP)--- , AHP vs ANP
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(Data Envelopment Analysis, DEA)--- (output)(input)(efficiency, not performance) --- ()---
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(Event Study)--- ---
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--- Research Research truth --- why
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--- (over-engineering), (appropriateness) : --- (idea) + (questioning) + (exploring)
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--- Whats new? New to What? ---? --- Will this paper be cited?So what? ---Empirical test to prove or support your argument. --- , Why so? --- to explain the reasons (e.g., why these variables and the results?) --- New findings or new theory created?Who cares? ---Parties: People? Investors? Companies? Government?
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--- (appraisal) (valuation) (pricing) 3. Action: ()or ()Finding Nemo!(fundamental value)Compare with current market priceTrend forecasting
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------(or or timing) ()
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1. () 2. 3. 1. (timing) 2. (location) 3. ()
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(or or timing)()
(location)
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(fundamental value) vs Opportunity !
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Action1. (e.g., SARS)2. (e.g., ) 3. (e.g., ) 4. (e.g., SARS )
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Q1: (fundamental value) Q2: Trend forecasting Q3:() Q4: Structural change ---
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(inflation) , , )P , , ()1973, 1980, 1986, 2005
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(deflation) P, , , , (cash is king), 1929 1990-20041997-2002 2008-2009
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(1996-2002) (2003 -2008, 10) ()2008,112009,3 ()2009, 4 -
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(M) MV = PQM: (M1BM2)V: P: Q: MQ
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20094M1BM2M1BM210.07% 6.72%
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--- --- vs vs --- or --- or --- LTVDTIdebt to income, --- --- ARM()
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2000911()2004(Affordable Housing Plan) (95%)
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40
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--- (1977-2008)911S&L
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(MBSCDO),
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20061,0003,750CDO2007
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(LTV)1980LTV120%2000-2006LTV103% 19972003LTV80%
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---()(Yield Curve)()
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---
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---1978/1/3
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1979/1/2
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1998/1/2
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1999/1/2
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2005/1/3
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2006/1/3
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2007/1/2
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()(Yield Curve) (2008,12)
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(2007-2008)
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Source: Economic Outlook, IMF, 2008, 10.
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--- Affordability
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vs, 1997,12 (2000) ,
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, 1990-1996
(2000) ,
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, 1991-2008
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(USD), 1999-2006
19992000200120022003200420052006766213811191942088021403229432238325396
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()
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Why BRIC--- China
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: : 0.63 @200812; 0.83@200908
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Why?
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1.+ vs - vs 2.+ or
1. 2. -3. (real)+
1.or 2.()
--
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1. 2. 3.
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(IMF, 2009-2010)--- --- 112009!
Chart1
7.93.27.4-0.22
4.72.96.22.52.2
9.12.83.5-1.90.9
10.91.68.34.52.8
15.23.110.77.24.6
13.55.154.13.6
8.8311.53.53.5
11.63.812.73.43.7
11.36.884.14.5
4.15.38.53.53.7
3.85.25.71.92.9
9.23.47.6-0.21.5
14.217.83.32
140.26.92.72
13.11.17.443.4
10.926.52.53.3
102.76.33.73.7
9.31.66.64.54
7.8-24.54.22.5
7.6-0.15.74.43.5
8.42.95.83.74.7
8.30.2-2.20.82.2
9.10.34.61.62.8
101.43.52.53.6
10.12.76.23.64.9
10.41.94.22.94.5
11.62.44.92.85.1
11.92.15.725
9.70.73.81.63.9
9.30.52.50.13
9.81.33.824.2
China
Japan
Taiwan
US
World
%
Sheet1
1980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010
China7.94.79.110.915.213.58.811.611.34.13.89.214.21413.110.9109.37.87.68.48.39.11010.110.411.611.99.79.39.8
Japan3.22.92.81.63.15.133.86.85.35.23.410.21.122.71.6-2-0.12.90.20.31.42.71.92.42.10.70.51.3
Taiwan7.46.23.58.310.7511.512.788.55.77.67.86.97.46.56.36.64.55.75.8-2.24.63.56.24.24.95.73.82.53.8
US-0.22.5-1.94.57.24.13.53.44.13.51.9-0.23.32.742.53.74.54.24.43.70.81.62.53.62.92.821.60.12
World22.20.92.84.63.63.53.74.53.72.91.5223.43.33.742.53.54.72.22.83.64.94.55.153.934.2
Sheet1
China
Japan
Taiwan
US
World
%
Sheet2
Sheet3
-
, 200909
Chart2
4.38.485.42.98.58.71010.15.83.76.863.94.7
1.38.30.53.60.240.55.1-2.4-2.20.86.93.81.92.2
2.79.11.84.50.37.25.44.74.14.61.67.14.80.92.8
1.11034.81.42.85.87.33.83.52.57.36.30.83.6
5.710.18.552.74.66.87.29.36.23.67.87.52.24.9
3.210.47.15.71.945.36.47.34.22.98.47.11.74.5
411.675.525.25.87.78.44.82.88.282.95.1
5.7136.46.32.45.16.38.17.85.728.58.32.75.2
5.192.56.1-0.62.24.65.61.10.11.16.26.10.93.2
-0.78.5-3.64-5.4-1-3.6-7.5-3.3-4.1-2.74.61.7-4.2-1.1
3.593.54.81.73.62.51.54.13.71.55.35.10.33.1
Brazil
China
Hong Kong
Indonesia
Japan
S. Korea
Malaysia
Russia
Singapore
Taiwan
United States
Vietnam
Emerging & developing
Euro area
World
Real GDP growth20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010
Brazil4.31.32.71.15.73.245.75.1-0.73.5
China8.48.39.11010.110.411.61398.59
Hong Kong80.51.838.57.176.42.5-3.63.5
Indonesia5.43.64.54.855.75.56.36.144.8
Japan2.90.20.31.42.71.922.4-0.6-5.41.7
S. Korea8.547.22.84.645.25.12.2-13.6
Malaysia8.70.55.45.86.85.35.86.34.6-3.62.5
Russia105.14.77.37.26.47.78.15.6-7.51.5
Singapore10.1-2.44.13.89.37.38.47.81.1-3.34.1
Taiwan5.8-2.24.63.56.24.24.85.70.1-4.13.7
United States3.70.81.62.53.62.92.821.1-2.71.5
Vietnam6.86.97.17.37.88.48.28.56.24.65.3
Emerging & developing63.84.86.37.57.188.36.11.75.1
Euro area3.91.90.90.82.21.72.92.70.9-4.20.3
World4.72.22.83.64.94.55.15.23.2-1.13.1
Source: IMF, 2009, 9.
Brazil
China
Hong Kong
Indonesia
Japan
S. Korea
Malaysia
Russia
Singapore
Taiwan
United States
Vietnam
Emerging & developing
Euro area
World
Real GDP growth (Annual percent change)
19801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014
Afghanistan, Islamic Rep. of15.18.816.18.212.13.4978.18.89.29.4
Albania2.75.72.91.12-1.55.6-0.8-1.49.8-10-28-7.29.69.48.99.1-10.212.710.17.374.25.85.75.85.56.36.80.426.56.26.16
Algeria-5.436.45.45.65.6-0.2-0.7-1.94.81.3-1.21.6-2.1-0.93.83.81.15.13.22.12.74.76.95.25.12332.13.94.14.34.44.3
Angola2.4-4.404.263.52.94.16.10-3.51-5.8-241.315205.503.233.114.53.311.220.618.620.314.8-3.69.310.85.76.56.1
Antigua and Barbuda7.63.6-15.89.87.98.995.76.82.32.70.85.16.2-56.15.64.94.93.31.524.35.25.512.46.94.2-202.73.74.94.9
Argentina0.7-5.7-3.13.72-77.12.5-2-7-1.310.510.36.35.8-2.85.58.13.9-3.4-0.8-4.4-10.98.899.28.58.77-1.50.72.6333
Armenia-14.15.46.95.93.37.33.369.613.21410.51413.213.86.8-504665
Australia2.64.20-0.56.45.72.14.444.61.6-1.32.13.953.54.345.14.43.42.14.333.82.82.842.1-1.40.61.92.82.93
Austria2.3-0.11.92.80.32.22.31.71.93.54.63.62.40.32.70.32.22.13.63.33.70.51.60.82.52.93.43.11.8-30.21.422.12.3
Azerbaijan-23.1-19.7-132.58.9611.46.26.58.110.510.424.330.523.411.62.512.34.12.63.2-0.8
Bahamas, The7.1-2.96.36.82.44.12.63.72.32.3-1.6-4.2-3.80.33.14.44.24.96.841.90.82.31-0.23.34.62.8-1.3-4.5-0.51.5321.8
Bahrain7.52.86.474.2-0.90.5-1.264.47.31.76.712.9-0.23.94.13.14.84.35.24.65.27.25.67.96.78.16.12.63.53.94.94.94.9
Bangladesh0.43.13.24.64.23.742.92.44.34.64.24.84.34.54.855.355.45.64.84.85.86.16.36.56.35.655.466.677
Barbados4.4-1.9-4.90.53.61.15.12.63.53.6-3.3-3.9-5.70.822.144.73.60.42.3-2.60.724.83.93.23.40.6-3.50.52.5333
Belarus-7.6-11.7-11.32.811.48.43.45.84.75711.49.4108.610-4.31.624.34.95.7
Belgium4.10.10.60.42.11.81.92.44.63.63.11.81.3-0.73.34.30.93.71.73.43.80.81.512.82.232.61.1-3.80.31.822.32.4
Belize50.2-7.66.111.3-1.47.32210.915.511.211.5126.30.20.71.43.63.78.71355.19.34.634.71.23122.32.42.52.5
Benin9.31.91.7-20.44.32.7-2.13.4-2.894.235.8264.35.745.34.96.24.4432.93.84.653.835.7666
Bhutan513.63.411.14.54.211.52857.410.7-0.44.51.95.16.95.55.35.87.97.26.810.97.26.878.817.96.65.76.66.466.76.7
Bolivia0.60.3-3.9-4-0.2-1.7-2.62.52.93.84.65.31.64.34.74.74.4550.42.51.72.52.74.24.44.84.65.92.22.93.33.33.43.6
Bosnia and Herzegovina29.928.99.55.23.653.56.33.96.96.85.5-30.54664.5
Botswana1211.75.514.22.46.815.27.716.321.16.78.40.6-18.784.49.710.49.85.93.596.361.65.14.42.9-10.414.35.56.88.83.5
Brazil9.2-4.40.6-3.45.37.97.53.60.33.2-4.21-0.54.95.94.22.13.400.34.31.32.71.15.73.245.75.1-1.32.233.43.84.5
Brunei Darussalam-1.5-11.50.3-0.42.21.13.14.80.33.14.52.9-1.5-0.63.12.92.73.92.90.50.44.40.6-1.50.20.61.31.61.71.7
Bulgaria5.75.34.234.61.85.34.72.4-0.5-9.1-10.8-8.4-11.6-3.7-1.6-8-5.84.12.35.44.14.556.66.26.36.26-2-12455
Burkina Faso42.71.4-1.21.611.38-0.25.82.2-0.69.10.23.51.35.7116.37.37.41.86.64.77.34.67.15.53.653.54.15.3666
Burundi-6.812.2-1.13.70.211.83.25.551.33.55.81-6.2-3.8-7.9-80.44.8-1-0.92.14.4-1.24.80.95.13.64.53.53.83.84.255
Cambodia21.59.63.31.17.67.148.26.45.45.6511.98.88.16.68.510.313.310.810.26-0.537.277.37.5
Cameroon9.917.17.66.87.58.16.8-2.2-7.9-1.8-6.2-3.8-3.1-3.2-2.53.355.154.44.24.5443.72.33.23.53.42.42.644.24.54.7
Canada2.23.5-2.92.75.84.82.44.352.60.2-2.10.92.34.82.81.64.24.15.55.21.82.91.93.12.93.12.70.5-2.51.22.53.83.42.5
Cape Verde5.38.42.89.53.88.62.94.365.70.71.437.36.97.56.77.68.411.97.36.15.34.74.36.510.87.85.92.536.56.66.66.4
Central African Republic-313-3.6-69.93.77.2-4.31.71.6-3.8-2-3.2-1.444.9-8.17.53.93.61.90.6-0.6-7.112.43.83.72.22.43.14555.1
Chad-6-10.85.415.75.37.963.67.523.210.42.4-2.15.5-0.82.15.77-0.7-0.911.78.514.733.67.90.20.2-0.42.82.52.922.41.8
Chile7.96.2-13.6-2.85.925.66.67.310.63.7812.375.710.67.46.73.3-0.44.53.52.2465.64.64.73.20.133.94.855
China, People's Republic of7.95.3910.915.213.58.911.611.34.13.89.214.21413.110.9109.37.87.68.48.39.11010.110.411.61396.57.510.210.710.310
Colombia4.42.30.91.63.43.15.85.44.13.44.32.44.45.75.15.22.13.40.6-4.22.92.22.54.64.75.76.97.52.501.34554.5
Comoros7.45.54.13.14.2221.62.7-3.25.1-5.48.53-5.33.6-1.34.21.21.91.43.34.12.5-0.24.21.20.510.81.52.53.544
Congo, Dem. Rep. of2.40.9-0.51.44.80.54.72.70.5-1.3-6.6-8.4-10.5-13.5-3.90.7-1.1-5.4-1.7-4.3-6.9-2.13.55.86.67.95.66.36.22.75.586.78.87.5
Congo, Republic of12.72.62.42.42.42.42.32.321.921.312.42.6-1-5.544.3-0.63.7-2.67.63.84.60.83.57.86.2-1.65.69.511.91.11.81.42.8
Costa Rica0.8-2.3-7.34.280.75.54.83.45.73.62.39.27.44.73.90.95.68.48.21.81.12.96.44.35.98.87.82.90.51.53.54.55.25.2
Croatia-85.96.65.86.82.1-1.533.85.454.24.24.75.52.4-3.50.32.5444
Cyprus6.98.96.35.38.73.9-3.90.410.18.80.41.57.11.54.48.21.82.354.8542.11.94.23.94.14.43.70.32.12.83.33.33.3
Czech Republic3.50.20.22.33.53.62.10.624.5-1.2-11.5-3.30.63.26.44-0.7-0.81.33.62.51.93.64.56.36.863.2-3.50.12.53.544
Ce d'Ivoire5.23.50.2-2.5-23.64.8-0.51.13-1.10-0.3-0.211.65.68.15.74.51.8-4.60-1.6-1.71.61.90.71.62.33.74.24.75.35.86
Denmark-0.4-0.93.72.74.244.90.3-0.10.61.61.32-0.15.53.12.83.22.22.63.50.70.50.42.32.43.31.6-1.1-40.41.52.52.62.2
Djibouti0-6.7-0.9-3.5-4.1-0.70.130.522.63.233.24.85.15.85.15.45.86.36.77.1
Dominica16.46.42.42.15.41.76.86.87.4-1.16.32.12.71.92.11.63.122.81.61.3-4.2-5.10.133.341.52.61.123333
Dominican Republic84.31.74.61.3-2.13.510.12.24.4-5.50.910.57.22.35.57.1876.75.71.85.8-0.31.39.310.78.54.80.525777
Ecuador4.93.91.2-2.84.24.43.1-610.50.335.13.624.71.72.44.12.1-6.32.85.34.23.6863.92.55.3-211.5233
Egypt3.42.27.38.987.44.84.3432.32.10.32.94.24.54.95.97.56.15.43.53.23.24.14.56.87.17.23.635666
El Salvador-8.6-5.7-6.31.51.30.60.22.51.914.83.67.57.46.16.41.74.23.83.42.21.72.32.31.93.14.24.72.500.523.544.5
Equatorial Guinea4.85.82.25112.9-2.34.42.7-1.2-1.8-134.71116.717.566.615023.825.718.263.419.514389.71.321.411.3-5.4-2.83.82.5-0.4-1.9
Eritrea12.920.92.39.17.920.2-12.48.83-2.71.52.6-11.311.14.75.24.14.83.1
Estonia-1.62.25.711.76.7-0.39.77.77.87.17.59.210.46.3-3.6-10-12.344.54.5
Ethiopia4017.8-2.3-11.49.713.90.6-0.52.6-7.2-8.913.43.56.113.23.5-465.97.71.2-3.59.812.611.511.511.66.56.577.27.57.7
Fiji-1.76-1.1-4.210.1-3.86.6-7.23.513.95.8-2.76.12.65.132.24.7-2.31.29.2-1.823.215.50.73.3-6.60.2-1.81.21.72.72.82.8
Finland5.11.332.933.32.63.65.15.40.1-6.2-3.7-0.93.63.93.76.25.23.95.12.71.61.83.72.84.94.20.9-5.2-1.21.52.533.5
France1.812.41.21.51.82.42.54.54.32.611.2-0.82.22.212.23.63.24.11.81.11.12.21.92.42.10.7-30.41.722.22.3
Gabon0-44.124.95.8-2.1-15.43.515.45.16.1-3.13.93.753.65.73.5-8.9-1.92.1-0.32.41.131.25.620.72.74.53.42.52.8
Gambia, The0.7-9.520.813.5-7.63.62.42.81.74.35.72.24.46.13.8-3.46.14.96.56.45.55.8-3.26.975.16.56.35.944.45.15.45.45.5
Georgia2.610.510.62.931.94.75.511.15.99.69.412.42135555
Germany1.30.1-0.81.62.82.22.41.53.73.95.752.3-0.82.61.811.721.93.21.20-0.21.20.832.51.3-5.6-11.51.822.2
Ghana0.5-3.3-6.9-4.58.65.15.24.87.92.93.35.36.24.93.344.64.24.74.43.74.24.55.25.65.96.46.17.24.54.716.875.65.8
Greece0.7-1.6-1.1-1.122.50.5-2.34.33.803.10.7-1.622.12.43.63.43.44.54.23.45.64.92.94.542.9-0.2-0.61.11.622.5
Grenada-3.61.73.11.65.36.29.89.32.45.85.23.61.1-1.23.43.12.94.413.487-31.67.1-5.711-2.34.50.3-0.712.93.43.63.9
Guatemala3.70.6-3.5-2.50.5-0.60.13.63.93.93.13.14.63.53.54.42.84.14.63.72.52.43.92.53.23.35.46.3411.83.5444
Guinea2.60.61.81.31.453.13.36.344.31.53.3544.75.25.24.64.52.93.84.21.22.332.51.842.64.14.74.955
Guinea-Bissau16-0.54.2-3.45.54.3-15.622.94.65.11.12.13.24.44.66.5-27.27.67.5-0.6-4.2-0.62.23.50.62.73.31.93.13.84.24.44.4
Guyana1.6-0.3-12.2-10.85.3-2.5-1.10.8-2.6-4.9-367.88.28.55.186.2-1.73-1.32.31.1-0.71.6-1.95.15.43.22.63.45.84.64.33.8
Haiti7.31.1-2.8-1.50.20.80.3-0.40.6-1.1-0.41.3-2.3-4.9-11.69.94.12.72.22.70.9-1-0.30.4-3.51.82.33.41.3123.23.33.43.7
Honduras0.72.5-1.4-0.94.34.20.764.64.30.13.35.66.2-1.34.13.652.9-1.95.72.73.84.56.26.16.66.341.51.92.22.62.83
Hong Kong SAR10.29.22.85.810.71113.48.42.23.95.76.1662.34.25.1-62.680.51.838.57.176.42.5-4.50.53.84.25.55
Hungary0.22.92.80.72.7-0.31.54.1-0.10.7-3.5-11.9-3.1-0.62.93.51.34.64.94.25.24.14.14.24.8441.10.6-3.3-0.42.53.84.54.5
Iceland7.24.32.2-2.24.13.36.38.5-0.10.31.2-0.2-3.41.33.60.14.84.96.34.14.33.90.12.47.77.44.55.50.3-10.6-0.24.24.54.53.8
India3.66.44.36.24.85.354.48.57.26.12.14.44.96.27.47.64.666.95.73.94.66.97.99.29.89.37.34.55.66.97.67.98
Indonesia9.97.62.24.272.55.94.95.87.57.276.56.87.58.27.84.7-13.10.85.43.64.54.855.75.56.36.12.53.54.555.56
Iran, Islamic Republic of-14.97.914.410.33.34.2-9.3-2.2-14.16.219.612.64.3-1.6-0.42.77.13.42.71.95.13.77.57.25.14.75.87.84.53.232.62.22.22.2
Iraq-0.76.21.59.86.96.76.36.25.94.7
Ireland2.92.51.5-0.73.21.90.43.635.67.71.63.62.35.99.68.111.58.410.79.25.86.44.54.76.45.76-2.3-8-312.32.62.6
Israel3.64.71.42.62.24.53.67.53.61.46.64.67.23.879.85.22.94.33.28.9-0.3-0.61.855.15.25.43.9-1.70.34.54.54.24.1
Italy-1.40.80.70.93.22.82.93.24.23.42.11.50.8-0.92.22.81.11.91.41.53.71.80.501.50.721.6-1-4.4-0.40.71.31.61.9
Jamaica-44.43.14.20.9-0.977.7-44.74.911.71.70.91-1.1-1-1.210.91.313.51.412.71.4-1.2-2.6-0.31.52.72.22.1
Japan3.22.92.81.63.15.133.86.85.35.23.410.21.122.71.6-2-0.12.90.20.31.42.71.922.4-0.6-6.20.52.23.22.82.5
Jordan11.217.27-2.24.3-2.75.52.31.5-10.7-0.31.614.44.556.22.13.333.44.35.35.84.28.68.186.66344.555.55.5
Kazakhstan-9.2-12.6-8.30.51.6-1.92.79.813.59.89.39.69.710.78.93.2-21.566.56.58
Kenya5.64.15.11.61.64.175.86.14.64.11.3-1.1-0.12.54.340.23.32.40.64.70.32.84.65.96.4723456.36.56.5
Kiribati-44.4-3.56.8-0.75-6.6-1.2-9.118.2-8.62.16.31.93.47.6-3.88.38.115.2-1.27.6-5.16.12.32.203.2-0.53.41.51.11.11.11.11.1
Korea, Republic of-1.56.27.310.88.16.810.611.110.66.79.29.45.96.18.59.274.7-6.99.58.547.22.84.645.25.12.2-41.55.35.14.74.5
Kuwait-20.4-18.9-9.55.35.2-4.38.68.1-1025.9-26.2-4150.733.88.61.40.62.53.7-1.84.70.2317.310.210.65.12.56.3-1.12.44.34.84.84.6
Kyrgyz Republic-13-19.8-5.87.19.92.13.75.45.3077-0.23.18.57.60.92.944.24.95.6
Lao People's Democratic Republic1015.34.736.49.14.8-1-2.19.96.7475.98.276.96.947.35.85.75.96.16.47.18.47.57.24.44.77.56.66.67.1
Latvia-11.42.2-2.13.98.44.73.36.986.57.28.710.612.210-4.6-12-21.433.64
Lebanon1.50.5-36.822.744.524.3-6.816.7-28.2-42.2-13.438.24.5786.5442.6-0.81.74.53.34.17.52.60.67.58.53444.54.54.5
Lesotho-0.82.15.60.55.64.250.78.66.762.97.23.563.54.93.60.31.34.531.63.94.60.78.15.13.50.634.94.64.54.4
Liberia29.32.93.7-31.32.65.37.89.57.14.97.510.312.912.812.9
Libya-3.8-13-8.93.63.61-4.4-1.16-1.1-20.215.9-2.8-3.91.9-12.72.6-0.8-0.40.43.7-4.3-1.3134.410.36.76.86.71.12.87.38.78.88.4
Lithuania-16.2-9.81.25.18.57.5-1.54.26.76.910.27.47.87.88.93-10-335.55.55.5
Luxembourg3.20.811.94.75.61048.59.85.38.61.84.23.81.41.55.96.58.48.42.54.11.54.55.26.45.20.7-4.8-0.22.62.62.82.9
Macedonia, former Yugoslav Republic of-6.6-7.5-1.8-1.11.21.43.44.34.5-4.50.92.84.14.145.95-213222
Madagascar0.8-9.8-1.90.91.81.221.23.44.13.1-6.31.22.101.72.23.73.94.74.56-12.49.85.34.656.25-0.223.75.65.65.7
Malawi0.4-5.22.53.75.44.6-0.21.63.21.35.78.7-7.39.7-10.313.8106.61.13.50.8-4.11.75.75.43.36.78.69.76.965.15.35.35.3
Malaysia7.46.95.96.37.8-0.91.25.49.99.199.58.99.99.29.8107.3-7.46.18.70.55.45.86.85.35.86.34.6-3.51.345.566
Maldives18.87.97.54.417.413.88.68.98.79.3-46.96.55.47.57.49.110.49.87.24.83.56.58.59.5-4.6187.25.7-1.32.93.855.55.5
Mali3.3-2.46.6-5.11-1.98.62-0.37.416.59.1-3.23.83.62.47.45.38.43-3.212.14.37.21.26.15.34.353.94.14.654.75.3
Malta-1.62.6-0.31.33.73.23.61.6-1.51.12.22.933
Mauritania4.33.7-2.24.92.725.82.93.12.2-1.22.61.75.9-3.19.85.8-42.86.71.92.91.15.65.25.411.412.22.34.75.713.17.85.9
Mauritius11.4-7.15.35.914.88.811.28.75.84.96.410.410.34.84.40.33.78.64.67.24.21.53.84.83.43.54.26.62.12.34.74.24.24.2
Mexico9.58.5-0.5-3.53.42.2-3.11.71.24.25.14.23.624.4-6.25.26.84.93.96.6-0.20.81.743.25.13.31.3-3.714.75.55.34.9
Moldova-1.2-30.9-1.4-5.91.6-6.5-3.42.16.17.86.67.47.54.847.2-3.403555
Mongolia6.48.48.35.85.95.79.43.55.14.2-2.5-9.2-9.5-32.36.32.443.53.23.90.24.7710.67.38.610.28.92.74.3611.3136
Montenegro001.11.92.54.44.28.610.77.5-2.7-23.5544
Morocco3.8-2.89.6-0.64.36.38.3-2.510.42.446.9-4-110.4-6.612.2-2.27.70.51.67.63.36.34.837.82.75.44.44.45.45.966
Mozambique4.25-6.9-15.7-6.51-2.314.78.26.516.6-5.28.86.22.214.811.111.88.41.512.39.26.57.98.48.776.24.344.55.56.56.5
Myanmar7.96.45.64.44.92.9-1.1-4-11.43.72.8-0.79.75.96.87.26.45.75.810.913.711.31213.813.613.613.111.94.5544444
Namibia5.39.3-1.65.13.22.34.742.74.11.24.84.312.32.57.24.12.9-0.71.82.42.833.1
Nepal-2.38.33.8-34.6-0.74.61.77.74.34.66.44.13.88.23.55.35.32.94.56.15.60.13.94.73.13.73.24.73.63.34.85.25.55.5
Netherlands-0.3-0.5-1.31.83.12.73.11.934.84.12.41.50.72.933.44.33.94.73.91.90.10.32.223.43.52-4.8-0.71.72.12.52.5
New Zealand132.9-0.16.91.21.80.800.80.1-1.70.85.25.94.342.204.33.82.64.94.14.52.81.93.20.3-20.52.43.13.23.2
Nicaragua4.65.4-0.84.6-1.6-4.1-1-0.7-12.4-1.7-0.1-0.20.4-0.455.96.343.774.130.82.55.34.33.93.230.512344
Niger4.9-0.22.2-3.9-16.87.76.40.16.91-1.32.5-6.51.44-6.65.10.512.71-2.685.37.1-0.88.45.83.39.534.54.512.34.95.6
Nigeria2.920.8-1.1-5.1-28.3-8.8-10.87.56.512.8-0.60.42.10.9-0.352.82.70.55.38.221.210.310.65.46.26.45.32.92.64.95.86.36.3
Norway4.51.50.13.95.95.441.8-0.211.93.13.52.85.14.25.15.42.723.321.513.92.72.33.12-1.70.31.71.71.71.7
Oman6.117.111.515.913.914.52.1-45.238.468.56.13.84.82.96.22.7-0.25.57.52.625.366.86.46.233.866.36.56.5
Pakistan8.56.86.56.85.17.65.56.57.654.55.57.81.33.754.812.63.74.323.24.87.47.76.2662.53.54.55.55.57
Panama4.59.25.3-4.52.74.93.6-1.8-13.41.68.19.48.25.52.81.87.46.57.33.92.70.62.24.27.57.28.511.59.2346.5776.5
Papua New Guinea-2.31.10.83.4-13.65.72.82.9-1.4-39.513.818.25.9-3.46.6-6.34.71.9-2.5-0.1-0.22.22.73.62.66.573.93.73.332.42.4
Paraguay11.79.2-1.4-32.83.90.34.15.95.82.92.53.43.93.75.50.430.6-1.5-3.32.103.84.12.94.36.85.80.51.53455
Peru7.75.5-0.3-9.33.82.112.17.7-9.4-13.4-5.12.1-0.44.812.88.62.56.9-0.70.930.25456.87.78.99.83.54.56.55.75.55.5
Philippines5.13.43.61.9-7.3-7.33.44.36.86.23-0.60.32.14.44.75.85.2-0.63.461.84.44.96.455.47.24.6013.84.555
Poland-6-10-4.85.6-0.43.93.52.33.33.8-7.2-724.35.26.76.27.154.54.31.21.43.95.33.66.26.74.8-0.71.344.44.44.3
Portugal6.73.52.21-11.63.37.65.36.67.93.43.1-0.71.52.33.64.24.93.83.920.8-0.81.50.91.41.90-4.1-0.511.51.51.5
Qatar-1-3.9-8.2-5.316-133.70.94.75.3-14.6-2.68.2-0.523.67.628.495.510.96.33.26.317.79.21515.316.41816.48.93.43.43.3
Romania3.30.13.966-0.12.40.8-0.5-5.8-5.6-12.9-8.81.53.97.13.9-6.1-4.8-1.22.95.655.38.54.17.96.27.1-4.1057.25.44.1
Russian Federation-8.7-12.7-4.1-3.61.4-5.36.4105.14.77.37.26.47.78.15.6-60.53.44.54.85
Rwanda-3.62.5-2.56134.45.5-0.30.3-5.70.4-4.36.6-9.3-47.432.315.216.78.35.78.18.5110.35.37.27.37.911.25.65.85.96.16.16.1
Saint Kitts and Nevis1.35.16.2-195.56.27.49.86.73.10.43.36.75.13.76.570.93.64.3210.57.65.65.32.93-1.201222
Saint Lucia-0.54.82.14.26.79.115.3213.38.59.207.61.31.91.91.60.33.83.60-4.10.63.54.53.851.71.7-1.401.83.64.34.2
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines2.17.22.43.66.74.66.84.514.836.71.46.91.8-2.98.31.23.15.73.62-0.13.22.86.82.67.670.90.11.23.84.33.94.1
Samoa-6.1-9.1-10.525.84.80.52.95.8-6.4-2.44.11.76.46.67.30.81.12.158.15.52.12.461.864.543.53.53.53.53.5
Saudi Arabia6.54.7-11.1-8.2-3.1-4.35.1-48.20.18.39.14.600.70.23.42.62.8-0.74.90.50.17.75.35.633.54.6-0.92.94.44.955.1
Senegal-0.85.17.8-5.33.73.33.16.1-0.64-0.72.61.21.305.423.15.96.33.24.60.76.75.95.62.44.72.53.13.44.34.84.94.9
Serbia-11.25.35.63.92.48.35.65.26.95.4-20355.55.5
Seychelles-2.3-3.9-2.1-0.64.310.30.84.95.310.37.52.87.27.3-2.40.51012.22.51.94.3-2.31.2-5.9-2.97.58.37.30.1-9.62.63.85.455
Sierra Leone-0.61.91.8-1.61.7-6.70.12.42.151.6-8-9.60.13.5-10-24.8-17.6-0.8-8.13.818.227.49.57.47.37.46.45.54.55.366.46.55.6
Singapore9.79.77.18.58.3-1.42.19.811.5109.26.66.311.711.68.27.88.3-1.47.210.1-2.44.13.89.37.38.47.81.1-10-0.14.45.35.55.4
Slovak Republic6.25.86.14.64.401.43.44.84.75.26.58.510.46.4-2.11.95.24.54.14.2
Slovenia2.85.34.13.64.93.65.44.42.842.84.34.35.96.83.5-2.71.43.73.73.73.5
Solomon Islands-2.7-1.8-1.73.90.2-3.1-0.28.41.34.32.2612.749.28.21.6-1.41.8-0.5-14.3-8-2.86.5856.110.27.343.42.52.53.27.3
South Africa6.65.4-0.4-1.85.1-1.202.14.22.4-0.3-1-2.11.23.23.14.32.60.52.44.22.73.73.14.955.35.13.1-0.31.93.94.34.54.4
Spain1.2-0.41.21.71.72.43.45.75.353.82.50.9-1.32.34.12.43.94.54.75.13.62.73.13.33.63.93.71.2-3-0.70.91.31.62
Sri Lanka5.85.35.23.36.754.31.52.72.36.24.64.36.95.65.53.86.34.74.36-1.545.95.46.27.76.862.23.655.55.55.5
Sudan2.56.34.1-1.5-5.6-0.69.96.54.41.417-46.200010.64.33.18.46.25.47.15.16.311.310.26.84554.34.75
Suriname-6.51.9-6.3-5.1-3-0.9-2.4-8.810.82.3-1.52.8-0.2-7.33.21.11.35.71.6-0.9-0.16.82.668.24.54.85.56.52.82.53.54.84.84.7
Swaziland-3.814.61.21.26.23.812.314.66.612.99.81.83.132.44.93.43.32.72.7211.83.92.52.22.93.52.50.52.63.12.62.52.5
Sweden4.6-0.21.21.84.32.22.93.52.72.81-1.1-1.2-1.23.941.52.53.84.64.41.12.41.94.13.34.22.6-0.2-4.30.2244.54.2
Switzerland5.12.9-1.30.633.71.91.63.34.33.7-0.90.1-0.21.20.40.62.12.61.33.61.20.4-0.22.52.53.43.31.6-3-0.311.31.51.5
Syrian Arab Republic10.58.52.61.6-6.57.3-4.81.312.7-6.110.410.713.27.45.55.43-1.15.6-3.12.33.75.9-2.16.74.55.14.25.232.84.64.555.2
S Tom?and Prcipe-1.1-10.33.1-3.9-69.3-5.8-2.923.1-2.21.20.71.12.221.512.52.50.43.111.65.46.65.76.765.85677.588
Taiwan Province of China7.46.23.58.310.7511.512.788.55.77.67.86.97.46.56.36.64.55.75.8-2.24.63.56.24.24.85.70.1-7.5034.54.65
Tajikistan-11.1-21.4-12.5-4.41.75.33.78.310.29.110.210.66.777.87.9235677
Tanzania3.31.20.1-0.90.545.66.25.93.872.10.61.21.63.64.53.53.73.54.967.26.97.87.46.77.17.555.77.27.57.57.5
Thailand4.65.95.45.65.84.65.59.513.312.211.68.18.18.399.25.9-1.4-10.54.44.82.25.37.16.34.65.24.92.6-314566
Togo-2.3-3.4-3.7-5.25.93.73.3-2.510.14.15.90.2-3.3-16.4146.87.63.8-22.3-0.9-2.3-0.35.22.41.23.91.91.11.72.14.1444
Tonga15.81412.85.844.15.68.81.7-3.51.14.75.9-3.8-0.124.50-3.23.52.35.42.633.21.45.40.6-3.21.22.61.91.81.61.61.6
Trinidad and Tobago10.44.63.8-10.3-5.8-4.1-3.3-4.6-3.9-0.81.52.7-1.6-1.53.6477.78.187.63.87.914.47.85.413.35.53.40.522.933.33.3
Tunisia7.45.5-0.54.75.75.7-1.56.70.12.67.13.97.82.23.22.47.15.44.86.14.751.75.6645.56.34.53.33.855.65.86
Turkey-0.84.43.44.86.84.36.9102.10.39.30.968-5.57.277.53.1-3.46.8-5.76.25.39.48.46.94.71.1-5.11.543.53.53.5
Turkmenistan-10-17.3-7.2-6.7-11.36.716.518.620.415.817.114.71311.411.69.86.9788.18.18.4
Uganda-3.43.98.24.9-3-30.948.36.46.51.82.88.26.411.39.15.53.88.25.45.28.76.56.86.310.88.69.56.25.56.7777
Ukraine-14.2-22.9-12.2-10-3-1.9-0.25.99.25.29.612.12.77.37.92.1-814.65.85.76
United Arab Emirates-1.88-7.2-5.24.5-2.5-19.35.3-2.615.723.61.92.7-2.26.76.25.47.90.13.112.41.72.611.99.78.29.46.37.4-0.61.63.34.65.15.1
United Kingdom-2.1-1.32.13.62.73.644.652.30.8-1.40.12.24.332.93.33.63.53.92.52.12.82.82.12.830.7-4.1-0.42.12.92.82.8
United States-0.22.5-1.94.57.24.13.53.44.13.51.9-0.23.32.742.53.74.54.24.43.70.81.62.53.62.92.821.1-2.803.53.63.32.4
Uruguay61.9-9.3-3.3-1.11.58.97.91.51.10.33.57.92.77.3-1.45.654.5-2.8-1.4-3.8-7.70.857.54.67.68.91.323.83.83.83.8
Uzbekistan-2.3-5.2-0.91.72.54.34.33.84.244.27.777.39.597776.566
Vanuatu5.54.4236.91.1-20.40.64.111.64.3-0.74.51.37.42.54.94.5-3.22.7-2.5-7.43.25.56.57.46.86.633.54.24.54.54.5
Venezuela-1.9-0.40.7-5.51.20.26.53.65.8-8.66.59.76.10.3-2.34-0.26.40.3-63.73.4-8.9-7.818.310.310.38.44.8-2.2-0.50.50.50.50.5
Vietnam-3.55.88.27.18.45.63.42.55.17.855.88.78.18.89.59.38.25.84.86.86.97.17.37.88.48.28.56.23.345.56.577
Yemen, Republic of6.38.246.75.74.65.263.86.23.83.93.745.63.23.33.97.74.744.54.54.5
Zambia3.96.6-2.9-1.1-1.71.21.71.59.3-3.7-0.6-0.72.1-0.1-13.3-2.86.93.3-1.92.23.64.93.35.15.45.36.26.3644.555.965.9
Zimbabwe10.712.52.61.6-1.972.11.17.65.277.1-8.42.15.80.29.71.40.1-3.6-7.3-2.7-4.4-10.4-3.6-4-5.4-6.1
Africa2.73.91.71.43.73.51.61.24.13.11.61.6-0.80.62.62.45.53.63.83.23.84.45.75.36.25.76.36.45.62.23.75.35.55.75.6
Asia and Pacific44.544.45.75.65.16.47.55.45.24.34.95.25.46.16.14.81.34.25.83.355.76.86.77.4851.14.26.57.17.27.1
Australia and New Zealand2.440.4-0.56.552.13.93.54.11.4-1.31.94.15.13.64.23.84.44.43.52.24.33.13.92.82.73.91.8-1.50.622.92.93.1
Caribbean5.73.11.71.10.3-0.83.15.30.33-0.80.73.72.70.84.54.75.2554.21.44.23.12.268.45.92.9-0.41.53.75.15.15.1
Central America0.50.8-2.802.40.91.42.90.23.13.53.76.35.33.64.43.24.85.24.131.933.84.34.76.36.84.31.11.83.54.34.64.6
Central Asia and the Caucasus1.43.93.74.55.13.15.58.13.40.63.3-2.5-0.52.6-7.23.95.76.52.8-1.47-1.46.86.49.49.28.66.92.8-3.12.74.64.24.34.3
East Asia43.84.24.46.26.95.56.98.35.25.25.65.45.365.85.851.54.25.93.855.66.76.47.48.44.91.14.67.37.97.87.6
Eastern Europe2.61.52.742.91.83.42.542.40-7.5-10.7-6.3-7.3-0.8-0.51.9-14.174.54.16.375.57.27.34.8-4.80.53.64.64.74.8
Europe1.30.61.42.42.72.432.84.13.42.3-0.6-1.6-1.60.721.42.62.23.24.52.51.82.33.42.743.81.8-4.3-0.222.72.93
Middle East-2.54.7-0.32.33.21.7-20.5-2.14.210.58.27.42.52.43.24.93.83.215.92.43.776.35.85.565.523.443.93.94
North Africa-0.4-1.13.95.45.95.621.33.42.7-0.13.90.20.13.50.75.62.864.13.93.33.15.64.74.95.65.45.73.13.45.15.95.95.9
North America0.93.2-1.93.66.742.83.343.520.13.22.64.11.83.74.74.24.540.71.62.43.6332.21.1-2.80.13.63.83.52.7
Pacific Islands-2.71.60.823.31.95.11.12.92.1-0.16.310.613.25.755.7-4.13.92.9-1.90.20.62.23.63.333.85.42.83.12.932.62.8
South America6-2.2-0.6-2.443.97.23.80.90.3-1.33.83.14.75.33.82.84.81-1.43.210.12.375.35.76.65.3-0.81.83.13.53.74
South Asia46.24.664.95.454.57.86.65.72.94.94.45.76.86.94.25.46.35.53.64.46.57.68.79.18.774.35.36.57.37.67.8
Southeast Asia6.96.44.24.74.50.94.35.988.67.76.36.57.48.18.37.54.3-7.43.76.52.65.15.86.55.96.26.64.5-0.72.24.45.25.75.9
Sub-Saharan Africa4.56.60.6-0.82.42.21.31.14.53.32.60.3-1.40.92.13.45.442.52.73.857.35.27.16.26.66.95.51.73.85.45.35.55.4
Sub-Saharan Africa4.56.60.6-0.82.42.21.31.14.53.32.60.3-1.40.92.13.45.442.52.73.857.35.27.16.26.66.95.51.73.85.45.35.55.4
Western Europe0.80.20.81.72.62.62.82.94.13.73.21.91.2-0.22.82.71.82.8333.91.91.21.22.31.932.70.7-4.1-0.41.522.22.3
Western Hemisphere22.2-1.62.46.13.93.63.43.331.40.83.234.32.23.54.73.73.53.90.81.42.44.23.43.63.11.9-2.40.53.53.83.63
ASEAN-56.76.244.44.214.65.78.18.67.76.46.57.17.88.47.53.9-8.43.262.85.15.86.15.55.76.34.902.34.35.25.86
Advanced economies11.80.12.94.73.73.33.64.7431.32.11.43.42.933.52.53.541.21.61.93.22.632.70.9-3.802.63.132.6
Africa3.35.61.80.2331.40.843.42.70.7-0.80.52.42.85.83.33.32.73.54.96.55.56.75.86.16.25.223.95.25.35.55.4
Central and Eastern Europe-0.6-0.61.24.23.72.34.24.41.70.5-0.8-6.4-12.9065.153.20.55.304.44.97.366.65.42.9-3.70.83.84.34.24
Commonwealth of Independent States and Mongolia3.93.344.331.73.63.15.32.81.4-6.3-13.6-9.7-14-5.5-3.71.4-3.65.49.16.15.27.88.26.78.48.65.5-5.11.23.84.85.15.3
Developing Asia5.95.95.677.96.96.27.39.16.25.66.18.999.38.98.46.43.56.375.86.98.28.699.810.67.74.86.18.38.98.98.8
Emerging and developing economies3.932.22.64.53.63.83.94.23.32.81.71.83.13.345.152.53.663.84.86.37.57.188.36.11.646.16.76.86.8
Euro area1.4-0.82.52.61.62.62.82.93.91.90.90.82.21.72.92.70.9-4.2-0.41.41.822.3
European Union0.6-0.10.922.52.52.92.83.93.52.40.70.7-0.22.9322.83342.11.41.52.62.23.43.11.1-4-0.31.72.42.52.6
Major advanced economies (G7)0.51.8-0.234.93.83.13.34.73.82.81.12.11.33.12.42.73.22.63.13.611.21.82.92.32.62.20.6-3.802.73.12.92.4
Middle East-2.33.1-0.13.23.92.3-1.50.5-13.887.95.82.22.32.24.74.13.71.75.42.63.8765.85.76.35.92.53.54.24.44.54.5
Newly industrialized Asian economies475.49.17.74.710.311.89.66.87.48.16.56.88.17.46.55.6-2.77.37.71.25.63.15.94.75.65.71.5-5.60.84.44.84.94.8
Other advanced economies (Advanced economies excluding G7 and euro area)3.53.523.75.74.35.365.14.642.63.4465.54.84.20.55.15.81.43.92.54.844.64.71.6-4.10.63.33.944
Western Hemisphere6.71.1-0.6-2.53.73.24.23.30.91.50.63.93.43.94.91.33.45.32.30.44.20.70.62.264.75.75.74.2-1.51.63.64.14.24.3
World22.20.92.84.63.63.53.74.53.72.91.5223.43.33.742.53.54.72.22.83.64.94.55.15.23.2-1.31.94.34.84.94.8
Copyright: MF, 2009 Source: World Economic Outlook (April 2009) (World Economic Outlook - April 2009)
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, 200909: IMF, 200909
Real GDP growth20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010Brazil4.31.32.71.15.73.245.75.1-0.73.5China8.48.39.11010.110.411.61398.59Hong Kong80.51.838.57.176.42.5-3.63.5Indonesia5.43.64.54.855.75.56.36.144.8Japan2.90.20.31.42.71.922.4-0.6-5.41.7S. Korea8.547.22.84.645.25.12.2-13.6Malaysia8.70.55.45.86.85.35.86.34.6-3.62.5Russia105.14.77.37.26.47.78.15.6-7.51.5Singapore10.1-2.44.13.89.37.38.47.81.1-3.34.1Taiwan5.8-2.24.63.56.24.24.85.70.1-4.13.7United States3.70.81.62.53.62.92.821.1-2.71.5Vietnam6.86.97.17.37.88.48.28.56.24.65.3Emerging & developing63.84.86.37.57.188.36.11.75.1Euro area3.91.90.90.82.21.72.92.70.9-4.20.3World4.72.22.83.64.94.55.15.23.2-1.13.1
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