穩當做好家庭財務規劃 !
DESCRIPTION
穩當做好家庭財務規劃 !. 演講人:謝偉國 寶來投信台中分公司 副總經理暨分公司主管. 提要. 前言. 建立個人(家庭) 收支表及資產負債表. 檢視個人(家庭)財務狀況及風險承受度. 現金流管理(收入與支出). 實現我的幸福人生藍圖 (購屋、教育基金、樂活生活、退休生活). 結論. 低起薪世代來臨. 根據勞委會統計,社會新鮮人初出社會的起薪只有 23,000~30,000 之間, 92 年 ~95 年的各行業起薪成長幅度平均僅達 1.7% ,部份行業的起薪成長幅度低於 1.7% 水準或甚至是出現負成長。. 大學畢業初任人員經常性薪資水準. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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() () ()()
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23,000~30,00092~951.7%1.7% / (2008/12)104 / (2008/12)104200732,75528,63126,030200420074.95%3.51%2.57% 28,631
()()()
9293949592-9592939495
26,21826,49025,88826,6391.6%28,23329,40529,67531,262
25,95125,49325,55028,3479.2%27,48626,69428,74132,316
26,09826,29025,69926,5021.5%28,23029,34629,56431,188
41,77138,69733,12533,506-19.8%44,33948,14040,56240,167
25,67126,86426,45326,8014.4%26,93528,80429,10030,511
25,89526,36826,38026,8053.5%27,50729,07231,19532,087
24,80425,08424,66625,0260.9%26,18926,81328,29628,500
22,63522,82223,21523,1942.5%23,37924,66825,87726,179
25,38526,43027,46527,6699.0%27,03128,90931,47632,587
30,43529,95330,43530,5690.4%33,09234,79636,31336,466
26,00326,71625,69126,4591.8%27,86030,61628,58729,489
26,78726,96026,81227,4092.3%28,92630,30832,01133,470
27,64429,43728,10228,8764.5%29,30433,11932,97234,397
25,19725,49525,28624,871-1.3%26,34327,84729,24328,316
23,15623,77923,80024,1494.3%24,04924,64226,90128,002
9293949592-95
26,21826,49025,88826,6391.61%
26,09826,29025,69926,5021.55%
25,67126,86426,45326,8014.40%
25,89526,36826,38026,8053.51%
- ,
12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940
1997M1231,62830,29233,18429,01529,09250,03626,75621,36824,28823,01024,42529,28733,51636,41429,26055,41127,62228,49628,03134,24927,26629,07330,82429,38628,13633,03626,96725,37455,36534,53033,00730,43220,67138,34240,42433,80641,60939,99130,92125,12931,992
1998M1232,46930,79334,01829,53529,84751,74727,09821,70624,44423,35825,03628,86431,97837,70030,30256,58426,31529,14428,55534,40427,00929,52132,61929,93028,28133,47527,36926,26157,91535,09134,16031,24121,33639,09542,06635,46041,81842,67333,02326,44832,717
1999M1234,07632,13035,67231,01131,52956,59227,84622,59725,51825,01326,23130,21932,73638,41532,32957,00228,70630,22829,10036,77028,81130,87134,95331,13629,38735,42529,74327,47659,58635,78436,02833,35121,93039,75246,15335,30443,84444,05835,01927,16334,237
2000M1234,34032,44736,42331,44432,06357,32227,82322,57626,05024,63826,63629,79733,08439,25332,98959,95527,87030,26729,51037,07128,18730,83235,89432,39230,16535,36029,73627,65560,46235,63236,20633,45622,54640,90043,39035,97945,01445,07336,38928,24034,627
2001M1234,99732,47339,29031,62632,57451,35927,59023,15426,95425,07825,78428,30132,74140,67033,89359,84227,97131,12329,87136,17427,47430,22335,91433,26130,31135,24030,91928,57460,67434,65337,40833,93123,43141,44949,89035,66945,33245,38936,54427,89034,891
2002M1235,17932,76639,15931,99931,74162,16928,29124,76427,15427,03726,41028,11231,31540,98034,33459,20928,74630,97929,88436,85328,15230,82636,53434,29030,21034,17431,14828,48461,97434,57237,47733,98623,33741,14752,13835,40144,36945,23936,03927,68635,357
2003M1235,35633,05939,37432,42431,74961,98829,17224,54327,87426,93427,50628,70230,57342,67935,34459,91928,45030,92130,64536,54828,65230,71936,56334,96230,82335,36831,67129,41462,76434,19937,54134,64323,38041,35749,34334,52643,93645,94936,54627,88535,600
2004M1235,76233,67139,15432,98531,08463,08028,97425,56328,60527,42127,62628,71431,05043,22935,52860,96229,28230,91131,67436,97328,85531,48938,16035,92431,24335,60631,51129,32463,54135,25437,73734,69723,48541,66049,10835,16345,71746,72136,57127,70836,043
2005M1236,13334,26139,66033,47531,69065,16529,34227,61129,76227,25427,42828,94730,89244,59635,24462,65030,59130,49132,02136,98128,92831,08539,01237,36830,53435,90532,09629,79265,37936,37337,85734,40723,56842,31650,72133,78645,56846,60037,84528,20036,538
2006M1236,54234,60438,98133,83231,64765,69330,04427,49229,69027,45526,75329,29830,31744,75035,39563,62131,50730,70831,87737,64929,03431,27240,62237,69831,00935,77932,90029,42865,36936,67738,32534,65723,43541,63354,30333,22946,09447,05638,08928,51536,824
2007M1237,07934,95938,28734,25532,18663,63830,74127,89030,05228,62226,80830,14430,69046,17936,87863,74831,42930,83331,74437,79128,77030,97241,51138,52831,11835,86634,28829,59265,24736,74939,03135,54924,69042,42053,43434,81847,69348,27538,02128,76337,232
2008M0337,02535,10838,75334,36632,35264,02031,02928,28630,66329,51926,90330,52030,51846,13937,44863,08230,66630,61831,55937,86629,00731,34041,73238,48231,22335,91533,83729,67266,08037,06938,78235,33424,64342,70451,63434,61448,23748,31638,05628,61837,293
2008M0637,00334,93838,46334,22232,08163,01230,34727,81230,44228,38226,84730,23530,51746,03637,22863,45330,47430,18531,08037,71328,78030,87342,44738,71631,03635,66533,24429,38965,21436,83738,88735,48624,47742,51852,01235,62848,32448,44637,98428,75237,130
2008M0937,09134,98137,66234,29031,95561,59530,36727,43930,23027,51526,95530,18429,85145,83537,21764,98830,03130,22531,11838,06128,54730,82142,99938,98731,08235,53033,82829,90564,30036,68139,01235,35524,87942,27153,83334,47348,75848,09737,96828,66737,090
(http://win.dgbas.gov.tw/dgbas03/bs7/calendar/MetaQry.asp?QM=0&MetaId-
=150) more
(http://www.stat.gov.tw/lp.asp?CtNode=1831&CtUnit=927&BaseDSD=7&xq_xC-
at=03)
(http://www.stat.gov.tw/lp.asp?CtNode=1829&CtUnit=690&BaseDSD=7&xq_xC-
at=19)
199730,29229,01530,82429,38655,36534,53033,00740,42433,80638,34231,9920.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
199830,79329,53532,61929,93057,91535,09134,16042,06635,46039,09532,7171.7%1.8%5.8%1.9%4.6%1.6%3.5%4.1%4.9%2.0%2.3%2.1%
199932,13031,01134,95331,13659,58635,78436,02846,15335,30439,75234,2374.3%5.0%7.2%4.0%2.9%2.0%5.5%9.7%-0.4%1.7%4.6%0.1%
200032,44731,44435,89432,39260,46235,63236,20643,39035,97940,90034,6271.0%1.4%2.7%4.0%1.5%-0.4%0.5%-6.0%1.9%2.9%1.1%1.6%
200132,47331,62635,91433,26160,67434,65337,40849,89035,66941,44934,8910.1%0.6%0.1%2.7%0.4%-2.7%3.3%15.0%-0.9%1.3%0.8%-1.7%
200232,76631,99936,53434,29061,97434,57237,47752,13835,40141,14735,3570.9%1.2%1.7%3.1%2.1%-0.2%0.2%4.5%-0.8%-0.7%1.3%0.8%
200333,05932,42436,56334,96262,76434,19937,54149,34334,52641,35735,6000.9%1.3%0.1%2.0%1.3%-1.1%0.2%-5.4%-2.5%0.5%0.7%-0.1%
200433,67132,98538,16035,92463,54135,25437,73749,10835,16341,66036,0431.9%1.7%4.4%2.8%1.2%3.1%0.5%-0.5%1.8%0.7%1.2%1.6%
200534,26133,47539,01237,36865,37936,37337,85750,72133,78642,31636,5381.8%1.5%2.2%4.0%2.9%3.2%0.3%3.3%-3.9%1.6%1.4%2.2%
200634,60433,83240,62237,69865,36936,67738,32554,30333,22941,63336,8241.0%1.1%4.1%0.9%-0.0%0.8%1.2%7.1%-1.6%-1.6%0.8%0.7%
200734,95934,25541,51138,52865,24736,74939,03153,43434,81842,42037,2321.0%1.3%2.2%2.2%-0.2%0.2%1.8%-1.6%4.8%1.9%1.1%3.3%
2008Q135,10834,36641,73238,48266,08037,06938,78251,63434,61442,70437,2930.4%0.3%0.5%-0.1%1.3%0.9%-0.6%-3.4%-0.6%0.7%0.2%-0.4%
2008Q234,93834,22242,44738,71665,21436,83738,88752,01235,62842,51837,130-0.1%-0.1%2.3%0.5%-0.1%0.2%-0.4%-2.7%2.3%0.2%-0.3%2.6%
2008Q334,98134,29042,99938,98764,30036,68139,01253,83334,47342,27137,0900.1%0.1%3.6%1.2%-1.5%-0.2%-0.0%0.7%-1.0%-0.4%-0.4%2.8%
2004
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
(%)
vs.
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1997M1293.090.0%
1998M1295.062.1%
1999M1295.20.1%
2000M1296.771.6%
2001M1295.14-1.7%
2002M1295.860.8%
2003M1295.81-0.1%
2004M1297.361.6%
2005M1299.512.2%
2006M12100.180.7%
2007M12103.523.3%
2008M03103.1-0.4%
2008M06106.182.6%
2008M09106.42.8%
(http://win.dgbas.gov.tw/dgbas03/bs7/calendar/MetaQry.asp?QM=0&MetaId-
=166) more
(http://www.stat.gov.tw/lp.asp?CtNode=1831&CtUnit=927&BaseDSD=7&xq_xC-
at=16)
(http://www.stat.gov.tw/lp.asp?CtNode=1829&CtUnit=690&BaseDSD=7&xq_xC-
at=11)
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2004 / (2008/12) 2008Q12008Q22008Q32007vs.
-
& 20060.90% / (2008/12)?65200610%!65 / (2008/12)
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20081025~65200901 656015 (AB)A=(17,280) X0.65% X+3000 B=(17,280) X 1.30% X 30 A=17,280 X0.65% X30+3000=6,370() B= 17,280 X1.30% X30=6,739() (AB ) A=60 XX0.775%+3,000 B=60 XX1.55% =60 X(15X1+15X2)3043,900 A=43,900 X30 X0.775%+3000=13,207() B= 43,900 X30 X1.55%=20,414()QAQA / --
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!600!20600(43,900) () + () + +
600 70%
= / 70%!
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NT$100NT$200NT$400NT$800
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10,000 A3% 10,300B5% 10,90010,100C20% 15,0009,000D30% 23,0003,000
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35
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1/330% 40% 30%
1/310% 40% 50%
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? ?!! 2008
REITs
2008
Bloomberg/(2008/1/1~2008/12/31)
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2009 --Bloomberg (1991~2008)/ (MSCIUBSReuters/Jefferies CRB Index)-
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2009 --Bloomberg (1996~2007) (MSCIUBSReuters/Jefferies CRB IndexGoldman Sachs US Precious MetaGS US Industrial MetalGoldman Sachs US Energy)
()1997~19992000~20022003~200769.3%68.3%349.8%-21.4%-44.2%28.7%90.7%112.5%321.1%
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15%85%40%30%70%
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! ()()S&P5001974/104.51974/1053%(1975/695)1973S&P50021-48%
S&P5002002/7 102002/745%(2004/395)2000S&P50028-48%Bloomberg / 20001973
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????1.Sharp)2.www.funddj.com.twhttp://www.sitca.org.tw/http://announce.fundclear.com.tw/3.96/9/20~97/9/20
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()*1(Jensen Index)
72.457-1*2.452.45117.3511-1*7.351.36
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()01/08 $3,000$1030002/08 $3,000$ 837503/08 $3,000$ 837504/08 $3,000$ 650005/08 $3,000$ 5600 $15,000 =$6.98 2,15001/08 $3,000$1030002/08 $3,000$1225003/08 $3,000$1520004/08 $3,000$1520005/08 $3,000$20150 $15,000=$13.64 1,100
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, 56~934: Bloomberg,
Sheet1
1 3 5 7 10
436412388364328
271287312309293
62%70%80%85%89%
16.07%8.11%5.53%4.37%3.42%
-14.65%-4.27%-2.39%-1.54%-0.84%
0.94%1.01%1.06%1.05%1.06%
Sheet2
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