運用普查追蹤資料探討 農家生產力
DESCRIPTION
運用普查追蹤資料探討 農家生產力. 研究人員:陳惠欣、孫珮瑛、沈芝貝. 研究背景與動機. 影響生產力之要素為何?. 持續經營農家 以 79 年、 89 年和 94 年農林漁牧業普查之農牧戶統計結果為資料來源,利用農林漁牧業普查之 農牧戶統一編號 連結 79 年、 89 年、 94 年三次普查結果,建立 40 萬 7,196 筆 之追蹤資料。 持續經營農家 特性? 具有優勢而持續經營? 或 雖擁有農業資源但經營體質不佳?. ( 一 ) 分析 15 年來持續經營農家在各普查年度的 橫斷面資料 ,並與普查當年度的全體農家資料比較, 探討持續經營農家之經營型態與特性 。 - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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798994798994407,196
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1234
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1.(Panel Data) (Time Series) (Cross-Section) Hsaio(19862003) Kalton et al., (1989)Baltagi(2001) Heteroscedasticity(Bias)Serial CorrelationPanel Data
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2.k(X1,X2,,Xk)3. (chi-squre) *
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4.general linear model Littell et al., 2002
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1.8(94)
Chart8
637700.1566076288
1791290.4399085453
1449110.3558753033
170170.0417906856
23690.0058178371
79
()
()(%)
a.3
b.3
%
a.798994/
b.3
*MEAN
79
()
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
()(%)
()(%)
(%)
a.-->()63-->3
b.""
79
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
a.798994
b.
(11)
94
79&8994
6377015.66%13583117.60%
6375615.66%6377015.66%17912943.99%31170240.40%
17913843.99%17912943.99%14491135.59%28301436.68%
14491835.59%14491135.59%170174.18%367694.77%
170154.18%170174.18%23690.58%42630.55%
23690.58%23690.58%
407196407196
79~8979~94
79899479897994798994
15.26%16.64%17.60%
13180115.26%12060116.64%13583117.60%7890078901637566377043.56%42.45%40.40%
37618543.56%30764542.45%31170240.40%22450522450417913817912935.52%35.39%36.68%
30679535.52%25647135.39%28301436.68%1771591771591449181449115.21%5.03%4.77%
449915.21%364445.03%367694.77%219592195917015170170.45%0.48%0.55%
38620.45%34840.48%42630.55%3048304823692369100.00%
863634100.00%724645771579505571505571407196407196
7979~89(79)79~94(79)79()79~89(89)79~94(94)79~897979~9479
()(%)()(%)()(%)
13180115.26%7890015.61%6375615.66%131801789016377059.86%48.38%-11.48%
37618543.56%22450544.41%17913843.99%37618522450417912959.68%47.62%-12.06%
30679535.52%17715935.04%14491835.59%30679517715914491157.75%47.23%-10.51%
449915.21%219594.34%170154.18%44991219591701748.81%37.82%-10.98%
38620.45%30480.60%23690.58%38623048236978.92%61.34%-17.58%
86363450557140719686363450557140719658.54%47.15%-11.39%
7979~89(89)79~94(94)
()(%)()(%)()(%)
13180115.26%7890115.61%6377015.66%14
37618543.56%22450444.41%17912943.99%-9
30679535.52%17715935.04%14491135.59%-7
449915.21%219594.34%170174.18%2
38620.45%30480.60%23690.58%0
863634505571407196
7989(94)79899479~89(79)79~89(89)(79~89)/7979~89~94(79)(89~94)/89
33283327-13332572915743671549.62%4509450961.84%332757.93%
1781780179146042078822.72%26226256.96%17842.38%
24312430-12431147484689505448.10%2963296262.41%243051.82%
10424104251104361125093205582738038.12%135301353153.92%1042550.71%
1346113461013459-225590270372814347.82%163171631763.76%1346149.79%
2016620165-120163-240604372834144348.65%246102460960.61%2016554.09%
1376813770213770028015248712630852.34%167091671159.64%1377055.37%
3199320123200-164835404746042.90%39102869760.31%320159.23%
2358723587023581-646775403073814961.81%286973876261.35%2358758.52%
3053530533-230539666263542525704153.54%387646831058.50%3053356.28%
5397153968-353967-1110128898518930360.43%683143300162.03%5396860.06%
2580225802025796-655731454644595356.14%330015182259.21%2580256.75%
4204442047342046-190805723677379656.98%51819391257.07%4204758.10%
21152112-32114266025116810526.08%2966296144.93%211241.28%
18891886-31886041453475469440.18%2344234056.55%188654.27%
38873882-53885397416458861045.12%5132512452.68%388260.11%
3526835271335273262154562795707761.80%415474155166.85%3527162.67%
4336143366543355-1189905776898286652.32%520435205157.89%4336655.82%
2554425546225550460269480985298948.22%326653266954.20%2554653.11%
3163231633131627-669704562496212750.91%388903889155.79%3163356.24%
1222122201221-142753107654618.65%1572157236.77%122239.33%
7721772107722122050171991774543.52%102131021346.32%772144.89%
9294929409295122941192451902448.86%117461174651.20%929448.29%
2319231902319037313379418655.40%2976297679.76%231968.63%
505005001311057764.94%727254.96%5047.62%
771579505571407196
(11)
729157436715
460420788
474846895054
250932055827380
255902703728143
406043728341443
280152487126308
648354047460
467754030738149
662635425257041
1101288985189303
557314546445953
908057236773796
660251168105
414534754694
974164588610
621545627957077
899057768982866
602694809852989
697045624962127
427531076546
220501719917745
229411924519024
373133794186
13110577
79
89
94
1
MEAN(2)
72915743671533321
460420788179
4748468950542431
25093205582738010436
25590270372814313459
40604372834144320163
28015248712630813770
6483540474603200
46775403073814923581
66263542525704130539
110128898518930353967
55731454644595325796
90805723677379642046
6602511681052114
4145347546941886
9741645886103885
62154562795707735273
89905776898286643355
60269480985298925550
69704562496212731627
4275310765461221
2205017199177457722
2294119245190249295
3731337941862319
1311057750
&A
Page &P
79
89
94
(94)
2
94
79
89
94
(2)
(3)
(4)
100
()()
863,634505,57158.54407,19647.15-11.39
131,80178,90159.8663,77048.38-11.48
376,185224,50459.68179,12947.62-12.06
306,795177,15957.75144,91147.23-10.51
44,99121,95948.8117,01737.82-10.98
3,8623,04878.922,36961.34-17.58
94
()(%)()(%)
407,196100.00
63,77015.66144,91135.59
3,3320.822,1140.52
1790.041,8860.46
2,4310.603,8850.95
10,4362.5635,2738.66
13,4593.3143,35510.65
20,1634.9525,5506.27
13,7703.3831,6277.77
179,12943.991,2210.30
3,2000.7917,0174.18
23,5815.797,7221.90
30,5397.509,2952.28
53,96713.252,3690.58
25,7966.342,3190.57
42,04610.33500.01
100
798994
863,634100.00724,645100.00771,579100.00
131,80115.26120,60116.64135,83117.60
376,18543.56307,64542.45311,70240.40
306,79535.52256,47135.39283,01436.68
44,9915.2136,4445.0336,7694.77
3,8620.453,4840.484,2630.55
4
TheMEANSProcedure
---------------------------------------------------
VariableMeanStdNMaximumMinimum79
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------77.301588.6180.3575187667
B120.4844669199.77041364071969138310.8755288.94%84.54
L388.6135301122.1812341407196990002.512332.7776.18
P150.233420811.419823640719698151.017531.13
P26.53372583.3039256407196160
W12.77166521.5694619407196360
W21.12641581.011694640719636089
LL10.88942350.27858694071961079.434786.00
LL20.09282070.2589362407196100.8842289.31%
XX4232.7062923276.4240719670000902.353152.51
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------1.245251.34
YEAR=89----------------------------------------------------94
71.7917779.00
VariableMeanStdNMaximumMinimum0.7394511471.49%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------3.683767963.81
B123.175669778.2371651407196500000.834740190.93
L386.0016208114.2721024407196139800197142231756.70
P160.150917511.40532454071969916
P26.3473613.3972779407196160
W12.51283411.3783117407196230798994
W21.34020720.9132913407196230-77.3079.4371.79
LL10.89305720.26773214058371088.6186.0079.00
LL20.08173240.242903740583710-87.5588.4273.9587.55%88.42%73.95%
XX4302.87425064288.42407196736659.3088.9489.3171.4988.94%89.31%71.49%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------2.772.513.81
1.131.340.93
YEAR=94----------------------------------------------------
VariableMeanStdNMaximumMinimum
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
B119.540319686.388717840719650000
L379.0019917109.5153883407196100100
P162.879581311.71728714071969916
P26.70971473.5492187407196160
W13.81447261.8462602407196201
W20.93418650.8799964407196120
LL10.71490680.389514940719610
LL20.06765480.220643740719610
XX4395.54395667268.394071961116655.50
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4
00
00
00
-
-
-
-
%
()77.3088.6179.4386.0071.7979.00
(%)87.5588.9488.4289.3173.9571.49
()2.512.772.352.513.683.81
()1.021.131.251.340.830.93
TheSASSystemreserved-39787x1f0.3835
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OEPEssSSSSSSSSSSEE
bAEQwwEEEEEEEEEE11
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bFFFFFFFFFF11GGGGAA
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TheSASSystemreserved-39745x1f0.4393
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79
89
94
()
000
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79
89
94
()
798994
()52.3750.23-2.14()58.5860.151.57()61.1562.881.73
(%)89.5393.73%(%)85.5687.81%(%)82.886.16%
(%)10.476.27%(%)14.4412.19%(%)17.213.84%
(%)15.6311.44%(%)13.2713.96%(%)11.2912.49%
(%)61.5563.20%(%)55.8460.61%(%)52.2557.69%
()(%)12.2913.19%()(%)15.9313.93%()(%)16.6615.02%
()(%)8.629.80%()(%)12.189.55%()(%)15.1111.79%
(%)1.912.37%(%)2.781.94%(%)4.693.01%
35919988.21%
CHANGE372609.15%
UNKNOWN107372.64%
407196
ObsYEAR_TYPE__FREQ_()()()()()()()()()
1790407,19646,599257,33753,72139,9079,632381,64725,549
2890407,19656,864246,80056,74038,8787,914357,57149,625
3940407,19650,853234,89961,17548,02612,243350,82056,376
(%)(%)()(%)()(%)(%)(%)(%)
11.44%63.20%13.19%9.80%2.37%93.73%6.27%
13.96%60.61%13.93%9.55%1.94%87.81%12.19%
12.49%57.69%15.02%11.79%3.01%86.16%13.84%
798994
52.3758.5861.15
50.2360.1562.88
7989.5393.73
10.476.27
8985.5687.81
14.4412.19
9482.886.16
17.213.84
>>
1.
2.
798994
161311
141412
625652
616158
()121617
()141415
()91215
()101012
235
223
0000000000
0000000000
0000000000
()
()
()
()
%
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
%
798994
(%)13.21%11.81%(%)17.92%18.35%(%)21.67%22.93%
3.23%8.135%10.649%
9.98%9.786%11.025%
(%)17.32%19.77%(%)8.97%9.86%(%)6.40%7.32%
(%)69.47%68.42%(%)73.11%71.79%(%)71.93%69.75%
(%)45.76%48.54%2.78%(%)43.80%45.39%1.59%(%)43.35%46.43%3.08%
(%)7.08%7.10%0.02%(%)3.65%3.63%-0.03%(%)4.53%4.57%0.03%
(%)9.13%8.91%-0.21%(%)10.34%10.53%0.19%(%)4.26%4.21%-0.05%
(%)10.31%10.40%0.09%(%)13.95%14.04%0.09%(%)14.75%13.86%-0.89%
(%)17.45%16.69%-0.76%(%)18.90%18.59%-0.31%(%)23.41%23.26%-0.15%
(%)0.17%0.19%0.01%(%)0.11%0.12%0.00%(%)0.13%0.13%0.00%
(%)3.90%3.45%-0.45%(%)1.20%1.15%-0.05%(%)0.36%0.35%-0.01%
(%)0.56%0.54%-0.03%(%)0.88%0.77%-0.11%(%)0.85%0.75%-0.10%
(%)0.42%0.37%-0.05%(%)0.64%0.63%-0.01%(%)0.79%0.75%-0.04%
(%)3.32%2.72%-0.60%(%)2.39%2.06%-0.33%(%)2.00%1.83%-0.17%
(%)1.90%1.09%-0.81%(%)4.13%3.10%-1.03%(%)5.58%3.88%-1.70%
a.798994100
b.798994
(%)13.18744969617.920912998821.6737365843
ObsYEAR_TYPE__FREQ_()()()(%)11.812738828518.348903230922.9321997269
(%)17.29423614638.97404936216.3999927422
17904071964810180485278610(%)19.76566567459.8618355787.3190797552
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39404071969337929803284014(%)68.42159549771.789261191269.7487205179
13.19%17.92%21.67%
100.00%11.81%19.77%68.42%11.81%18.35%22.93%
100.00%18.35%9.86%71.79%17.29%8.97%6.40%
100.00%22.93%7.32%69.75%19.77%9.86%7.32%
69.52%73.11%71.93%
()()()68.42%71.79%69.75%
7940719660084209380485278610
89407196336904102640157292323
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9415,7662,1817720128132953
9451,4378,36239192273892912508
339,9930.02589170820.01152025070.000557471112.55%
0.01475456540.10337282290.19765665670.68421595530.10%
0.08273656910.10075246320.09861835580.717892611919.94%
0.11087044080.11845155650.07319079760.697487205219.16%
(%)(%)(%)(%)(%)(%)(%)(%)(%)(%)(%)
ObsYEAR_TYPE__FREQ_SE1SE2SE3SE4SE5SE6SE7SE8SE9SE10SE11
1790407196197667288963629442364679737581404021821506110684448
289040719618480814772428685717675708479468331342568837912621
394040719618906318591171515643294702519140630493047745215784
(%)(%)(%)(%)(%)(%)(%)(%)(%)(%)(%)
48.54%7.10%8.91%10.40%16.69%0.19%3.45%0.54%0.37%2.72%1.09%
45.39%3.63%10.53%14.04%18.59%0.12%1.15%0.77%0.63%2.06%3.10%
46.43%4.57%4.21%13.86%23.26%0.13%0.35%0.75%0.75%1.83%3.88%
000000
000000
000000
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
%
798994
13.2111.8117.9218.3521.670.0022.930.01475456540.08273656910.1108704408
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105.21102.0589.68
98.1784.7372.57
112.23103.0996.11
76.5581.2574.36
81.9985.6288.64
71.6479.875.95
55.1580.7783.99
72.9278.470.54
-
2.
79
89
94
()
18.69
20.48
22.97
23.18
18.62
19.54
()
77.30
88.61
79.43
86.00
71.79
79.00
(%)
87.55
88.94
88.42
89.31
73.95
71.49
()
1.02
1.13
1.25
1.34
0.83
0.93
()
2.51
2.77
2.35
2.51
2.03
3.81
-
3.
-
4. 27.3017.0330.1119.9419.1718.76
79
89
94
13.21
11.81
17.92
18.35
21.67
22.93
(%)
3.23
1.48
8.14
8.27
10.65
11.09
(%)
9.98
10.34
9.79
10.08
11.03
11.85
86.79
88.19
82.08
81.65
78.33
77.07
(%)
17.32
19.77
8.97
9.86
6.40
7.32
(%)
69.47
68.42
73.11
71.79
71.93
69.75
(1)1565
(2)100%
79
89
94
13.21
11.81
17.92
18.35
21.67
22.93
(%)
3.23
1.48
8.14
8.27
10.65
11.09
(%)
9.98
10.34
9.79
10.08
11.03
11.85
86.79
88.19
82.08
81.65
78.33
77.07
(%)
17.32
19.77
8.97
9.86
6.40
7.32
(%)
69.47
68.42
73.11
71.79
71.93
69.75
(1)1565
(2)100%
-
5. 8994
79
89
94
10.9549
12.8516
12.8793
14.2344
8.7836
10.0946
11.6927
14.0848
10.6671
12.1111
10.1924
12.2936
22.6727
27.0460
20.8949
22.4437
17.7040
19.5337
17.6511
20.0511
20.3211
22.3701
15.6096
18.2459
19.9754
22.3433
25.6187
26.7754
21.4748
23.5634
71.4460
73.2177
150.8027
137.1879
142.2293
139.7755
10.3429
12.2303
12.7259
13.8668
15.1841
16.1166
39.8953
41.6393
52.5025
46.7085
57.2806
52.6797
23.4843
27.1321
21.7989
25.1462
25.9372
30.0245
138.8937
151.8516
258.5370
232.2823
267.0584
247.6500
-
12 3
-
()*
-
75.89%() WP = 0.3459 Prin1 + 0.2215 Prin2 + 0.1361 Prin3 + 0.1085 Prin4 + 0.0960 Prin5 + 0.0920 Prin6
100%
34.4028
1
99%
1.3257
3,400
95%
0.8144
17,000
90%
0.6028
33,999
75%
0.2377
84,998
50%
-0.0826
169,997
25%
-0.3074
254,995
10%
-0.4801
305,994
5%
-0.5855
322,993
1%
-0.7859
336,593
0%
-1.2070
339,993
-
()407,196 84,998 ()79.00 149.26 ()62.88 59.93 ()6.65 7.35 ()101.59 225.61 ()3.81 4.55 ()0.93 1.99 60(%)0.28 0.56 ()179.39 460.19 ()19.85 63.80 ()19.43 62.05 ()0.34 1.40 ()0.08 0.35 (/)25.12 42.75 (/)21.25 32.05 (/)1106.45 1386.41
-
H0H1
-
*
-
() SAS-2 REMLAkaikesAICSchwarzsBIC Y1= 5.6023 + 0.0772 X1*1.4388 X2* + 0.0001 X3 + 0.2643 X4* (0.0007) (0.3243) (0.0092) (0.0350) Y2= 0.1736 + 0.0192 X2* + 0.0000 X3 + 0.0000 X40.0010 X5 + 0.0080 X6* (0.0039) (0.0001) (0.0004) (0.0007) (0.0011) *95%
- () (x2=64907Pr>ChiSq=
-
()~~
-
151. 2. 89943. ()4.
-
()()
-
()
-
8