鋼鐵工業政策環境影響評估 指導委員會議

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經濟部工業局. 鋼鐵工業政策環境影響評估 指導委員會議. 經濟部工業局 2009 年 11 月 24 日. 議程. 壹、前言 貳、政策背景及內容 參、 替代方案分析 肆、政策可能造成環境影響之評定. 簡報內容. 壹、前言. 一、緣起. 依據 92 年「環境影響評估法」第 26 條及 95 年「政府政策環境影響評估作業辦法」相關規定, 有影響環境之虞之政府政策,應實施環境影響評估 ,且政策研提機關於政策報請行政院核定時,應檢附評估說明書。 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • 2009 11 24

  • *

    /14:0014:1014:1014:4014:4015:5015:5016:00

  • *

  • *

  • 9226959541198 ()*

  • ()*

    (92.01.08)(95.04.07)95.04.110950022968 (96.01.15)

  • *95.04.110950022968 ()*

    1.()()972.3.()4.()()(10)()5.()6.7.8.9.

  • *()*

    ()

    ()

    ()

    ()

    ()

  • ()*

  • ()()*

    /1.2.3.()

  • *

  • (20076)WSA*

  • Steiner(1969) *

    1.2.

    Up!

    1.2.

  • ()*

  • ()*

    WT ST SO ST WTO SO WO SOSO SO WO WO WO STWT

  • ()SWOT*

  • *STWT

    SOSOSOSTWOWO

    SOWOSO

    STWOWT(STEEL-Up Policy) Up!(Sustainable Technology, Environment, and Economy Lift-Up)2025*

  • *

  • 2025WSA(crude steel)+(+) 7208-7308 +- *0.915+- 19892008N=20

    ()*

  • + =0.9 CAGR = (/)^(1/N) 1()*

  • 1454515()*

    (CAGR=3.09%)(CAGR=1.53%)(CAGR=0.41%)20254,1143,1752,6291,454515-31

    Chart1

    304.6600.11099.6198919891989

    412562.71221.8199019901990

    514.3582.91477.2199119911991

    528.5542.11612.2199219921992

    573.1624.41947.8199319931993

    546.7612.21930.5199419941994

    546.3614.21905199519951995

    590.6644.41827.8199619961996

    665.3894.42259.7199719971997

    707.5981.12439.2199819981998

    611926.72445.3199919991999

    686.9997.12576.9200020002000

    689.71031.62262.5200120012001

    770.61052.42548.3200220022002

    805.31077.92566.9200320032003

    865.81093.82817.8200420042004

    871.3985.32536.6200520052005

    940.91068.22661.9200620062006

    1001.11088.92562200720072007

    979.51008.82452.62452.62452.62452.6

    2009E2009e8701080252824902463

    2010E2010e8701330260725282473

    2011E2011e9801330268725672483

    2012E2012e9801580277026062493

    2013E2013e9801580285626462503

    2014E2014e9801580294426872514

    2015E2015e9801580303527282524

    2016E2016e9801580312927692534

    2017E2017e9801580322528122545

    2018E2018e9801580332528552555

    2019E2019e9801580342828982566

    2020E2020e9801580353429432576

    2021E2021e10801580364329882587

    2022E2022e10801580375530342597

    2023E2023e10801580387130802608

    2024E2024e10801580399131272619

    2025E2025e10801580411431752629

    (3.09%)

    (1.53%)

    0.41

    /GDP2008DGDP-90()GDP/Dum(PGDPt)(CAGR=3.19%)(CAGR=2.58%)(CAGR=1.97%)1989~2008AAGR=1.04%1989~2008CAGR

    [][][][][][](/)4.97%2,0082,4532,4532,4532,4532,4532,4532,4532,453

    1989304660019047.02,25230310995.85.4679.5%2.210,819-1.61%1.61%50756192016110.020,156,5872009E1,9502,770-2,6032,6032,6032,4782,529

    1990412056279747.02,46120512003.75.8879.5%2.212,2862.35%2.35%53647282186720.020,401,3052010E2,2002,8663.46%2,6882,6712,6542,5042,607

    19915143582910972.03,8374614763.67.1674.0%2.614,259-3.42%3.42%57714922416060.020,605,8312011E2,3102,9673.52%2,7922,7612,7302,5302,657

    19925285542110706.05,4433116118.17.7566.2%2.616,3931.70%1.70%62243522664190.020,802,6222012E2,5603,0733.57%2,9102,8572,8142,5562,707

    19935726624411970.07,508319475.49.2861.4%2.918,619-4.40%4.40%66536762923100.020,995,4162013E2,5603,1632.95%3,0232,9432,8752,5832,758

    19945467612711594.07,6801019264.19.1060.1%2.719,4430.93%0.93%714542431727924969.021,177,8742014E2,5603,2572.98%3,1363,0302,9352,6102,811

    19955463614211605.07,4721919057.88.9260.8%2.520,2556.28%6.28%760902934187049560.021,357,4312015E2,5603,3563.01%3,2493,1172,9962,6372,864

    19965906644412350.05,9421418277.78.4967.5%2.321,23116.16%16.16%808806837145479144.021,525,4332016E2,5603,4583.05%3,3633,2043,0572,6642,879

    19976653894415597.07,0141522595.710.3969.0%2.622,141-2.01%2.01%8621225399035106725.021,742,8152017E2,5603,5643.08%3,4763,2903,1182,6922,893

    19987075981116886.07,5292024395.411.1269.1%2.722,973-5.83%5.83%9013354424229131919.021,928,5912018E2,5603,6572.60%3,5893,3773,1792,7202,907

    19996110926715377.09,1213724461.011.0762.7%2.623,466-4.07%4.07%9531425439171146861.022,092,3872019E2,5603,7532.63%3,7023,4643,2402,7482,922

    20006869997116840.09,0269325773.711.5765.0%2.623,936-7.13%7.13%10081059453422161112.022,276,6722020E2,5603,8532.65%3,8153,5513,3012,7772,937

    200168971031617213.05,4806722626.910.1075.8%2.323,5824.22%4.22%9862183442688150378.022,405,5682021E2,6603,9552.67%3,9283,6383,3622,8062,951

    200277061052418230.07,3176425483.011.3271.3%2.524,140-5.27%5.27%10319445459598167288.022,520,7762022E2,6604,0622.69%4,0413,7243,4232,8352,966

    200380761077918855.07,03820125691.811.3772.6%2.424,406-5.01%5.01%10680631467663175353.022,604,5502023E2,6604,1301.68%4,1543,8113,4832,8642,981

    200486581093919597.08,7839828281.912.4668.9%2.525,149-11.08%11.08%11337829490168197858.022,689,1222024E2,6604,1991.68%4,2683,8983,5442,8942,996

    20058713985418567.07,04224225367.211.1472.2%2.125,6601.15%1.15%11809552505671213361.022,770,3832025E2,6604,2701.69%4,3813,9853,6052,9243,011

    200694101068320092.56,68915626625.411.6474.9%2.126,268-1.34%1.34%12386799524081231771.022,876,527

    2007100191088420902.95,09436925628.611.1680.1%2.027,2396.28%6.28%13095646553507261197.022,958,360

    200897951008819882.35,19755324526.410.6578.8%2.024526.424526.424526.426,7889.22%9.22%12365242539854247544.023,040,193

    20091.04%26,03126,03126,03126,031516910224600.2

    20104.09%26,87726,71026,53926,7102.61%2.61%3.25%537483245173.2

    201127,91627,61127,29527,6113.37%3.37%3.87%564787272477.4

    201229,10128,56528,13728,5653.46%3.46%4.24%593704301394.5

    201330,23329,43328,74529,4333.04%3.04%3.89%620006327695.6

    201431,36430,30129,35430,3012.95%2.95%3.74%646294353983.8

    201532,49431,16929,96331,1692.86%2.86%3.60%672598380288.0

    201633,62632,03730,57232,0372.78%2.78%3.48%698897406586.6

    201734,75732,90431,18132,9042.71%2.71%3.36%725175432865.1

    201835,88933,77231,79033,7722.64%2.64%3.26%751499459188.9

    201937,02034,64032,39934,6402.57%2.57%3.15%777801485491.4

    202038,15035,50833,00835,5082.50%2.51%3.05%804091511781.1

    202139,28236,37633,61636,3762.44%2.44%2.97%830385538074.9

    202240,41237,24434,22537,2442.39%2.39%2.88%856708564398.1

    202341,54438,11234,83338,1122.33%2.33%2.80%883009590699.0

    202442,67538,98135,44138,9812.28%2.28%2.72%909323617012.7

    202543,80739,84836,05039,8482.22%2.22%2.65%935602643292.1

    2.54%2.70%2.70%3.31%

    0.37%0.37%0.47%

    /GDP

    GDP/

    GDP

    GDP-90()GDP/

    (a) [](b=a*0.915)[](c) [](d) [](e=b+c-d) [](f=d/b) [%](g=c/e) [%](h=1-g) [%](i) [](j=e/i) (/)/GDP

    198910,99610,0613,3481,04312,36710.37%27.08%72.92%20.166132.445075619201611

    199012,00410,9842,5791,29412,26911.78%21.02%78.98%20.46012.295364728218672

    199114,76413,5093,8531,30116,0619.63%23.99%76.01%20.617792.785771492241606

    199216,11814,7484,5221,74917,52111.86%25.81%74.19%20.88422.816224352266419

    199319,47517,8205,9982,35921,45913.24%27.95%72.05%211,0223.236653676292310

    199419,26417,6274,2152,39619,44613.59%21.68%78.32%21.189182.727145424317279

    199519,05817,4385,1672,45920,14614.10%25.65%74.35%21.369432.657609029341870

    199618,27816,7244,0483,09417,67918.50%22.90%77.10%21.538212.198088068371454

    199722,59620,6754,4044,23220,84720.47%21.12%78.88%21.749592.428621225399035

    199824,39522,3212,8614,65020,53220.83%13.93%86.07%21.939362.289013354424229

    199924,46122,3823,2005,87719,70526.26%16.24%83.76%22.098922.079531425439171

    200025,77423,5833,2965,99520,88425.42%15.78%84.22%22.289372.0710081059453422

    200122,62720,7042,4185,58517,53726.97%13.79%86.21%22.417831.789862183442688

    200225,48323,3173,2516,32120,24727.11%16.06%83.94%22.528991.9610319445459598

    200325,69223,5083,5126,74720,27328.70%17.32%82.68%22.68971.9010680631467663

    200428,28225,8784,2986,53623,64025.26%18.18%81.82%22.691,0422.0911337829490168

    200525,36723,2113,3996,40720,20227.60%16.82%83.18%22.778871.7111809552505671

    200626,62524,3623,2567,59620,02231.18%16.26%83.74%22.888751.6212386799524081

    200725,62923,4513,4657,91119,00433.74%18.23%81.77%22.968281.4513095646553507

    200824,52622,4413,4696,80019,11030.30%18.15%81.85%23.048291.5512365242539854

    2.166392907

    2.2375287247

    2.5580241643

    2.5895236966

    2.9270072664

    2.6960033442

    2.5046260173

    2.2598341161

    2.6209405276

    2.7065831432

    2.5663562374

    2.556644297

    2.2943054291

    2.4694202062

    2.4054597523

    2.4944750887

    2.1480205176

    2.1494981875

    1.9570325893

    1.9834975328

    /GDP

    GDP/

    GDP

    19893056009051,100-

    19904125639751,22211.11%

    19915145831,0971,47720.90%

    19925295421,0711,6129.14%

    19935736241,1981,94820.82%

    19945476121,1591,931-0.89%

    19955466141,1611,905-1.32%

    19965916441,2351,828-4.05%

    19976658941,5602,26023.63%

    19987089811,6892,4397.94%

    19996119271,5382,4450.25%

    20006879971,6842,5775.38%

    20016901,0321,7212,263-12.20%

    20027711,0521,8232,54812.63%

    20038051,0781,8832,5670.73%

    20048661,0941,9602,8189.77%

    20058719851,8572,537-9.98%

    20069411,0682,0092,6624.94%

    20071,0011,0892,0902,562-3.75%

    2008E979.51008.81,95010.3%8701080

    2009E1,9508701080

    2010E2,200-2,2008701330

    2011E2,3109801330

    2012E2,5609801580

    2013E2,5609801580

    2014E2,5609801580

    2015E2,5609801580

    2016E2,5609801580

    2017E2,5609801580

    2018E2,5609801580

    2019E2,5609801580

    2020E2,5609801580

    2021E2,66010801580

    2022E2,66010801580

    2023E2,66010801580

    2024E2,66010801580

    2025E2,66010801580

    111

    (*0.915)*0.915GDPCAGR1.48%AAGR-5.78/GDP1 lnDsGDPBUL12 Ds(PGDP)23 lnPDsGDPBUL334 PDsPGDP44

    19891099.61006.11280.519891280.52.51,2770.24%1131.011.68%7.2-6.60%1,3710.611.21%1,137

    19901221.81117.91290.619901290.62.41,371-6.21%1284.50.48%7.3-10.74%1,4460.7-2.85%1,327

    19911477.21351.61676.119911676.12.91,5577.10%1490.911.05%7.45.49%1,5890.85.51%1,584

    19921612.21475.21809.219921809.22.91,838-1.61%1714.25.25%7.50.83%1,7940.9-2.99%1,863

    19931947.81782.22239.419932239.43.42,2141.15%1947.313.05%7.69.06%2,0531.03.61%2,159

    19941930.51766.42004.019942004.02.81,9164.38%1897.35.32%7.56.19%1,8871.0-5.77%2,120

    19951905.01743.12052.719952052.72.71,9803.54%1848.19.96%7.65.80%1,9401.0-1.33%2,080

    19961827.81672.41768.219961768.22.21,918-8.47%1789.0-1.17%7.6-7.21%1,9060.9-14.61%2,027

    19972259.72067.62078.019972078.02.41,9585.77%1733.816.56%7.66.99%1,9420.94.79%1,978

    19982439.22231.91995.419981995.42.22,033-1.91%1683.415.63%7.6-0.26%2,0010.92.98%1,936

    19992445.32237.41879.119991879.12.01,972-4.92%1653.512.01%7.6-4.38%1,9650.9-1.91%1,915

    20002576.92357.91933.020001933.01.91,9101.20%1625.015.93%7.60.21%1,9290.91.96%1,895

    20012262.52070.21568.120011568.11.61,688-7.62%1646.5-5.00%7.5-11.20%1,7660.9-23.39%1,935

    20022548.32331.71805.920021805.91.71,7294.26%1612.710.70%7.50.23%1,8020.8-5.38%1,903

    20032566.92348.71808.320031808.31.71,6797.14%1596.511.71%7.52.22%1,7690.8-4.58%1,891

    20042817.82578.32146.720042146.71.91,80515.92%1551.527.72%7.514.87%1,8690.814.21%1,842

    20052536.62321.01828.720051828.71.51,7832.51%1520.516.85%7.5-1.56%1,8580.81.08%1,809

    20062661.92435.61789.120061789.11.41,843-3.00%1486.216.93%7.6-6.20%1,9070.80.93%1,773

    20072562.02344.21693.11693.11693.11693.11693.120071693.11.31,839-8.64%1429.015.60%7.6-11.45%1,9120.7-0.82%1,707

    2008E2,6012,379.61,9331,7291718.21595.22008E1,9331372.57.61,9870.71,645

    2009E2,6402,415.62,0311,7651743.61503.02009E2,0311313.17.62,0640.71,574

    2010E2,6802,452.02,1351,8021769.41416.22010E2,1351250.77.72,1440.61,499

    2011E2,7202,489.12,2431,8391795.61334.32011E2,2431185.17.72,2280.61,420

    2012E2,7612,526.72,3581,8761822.21257.22012E2,3581116.27.72,3150.61,335

    2013E2,8032,564.82,4561,9151849.11184.52013E2,4561057.37.82,3890.51,263

    2014E2,8452,603.52,5581,9531876.51116.12014E2,558995.97.82,4650.51,186

    2015E2,88821.602,642.82,6641,9931904.31051.52015E2,664932.07.82,5430.51,106

    2016E2,9322,682.82,7752,0331932.4990.82016E2,775865.57.92,6240.41,022

    2017E2,9762,723.22,8912,0731961.0933.52017E2,891796.27.92,7080.4933

    2018E3,0212,764.42,9912,1141990.1879.52018E2,991735.87.92,7800.4855

    2019E3,0672,806.13,0962,1562019.5828.72019E3,096673.38.02,8540.3774

    2020E3,1132,848.53,2042,1982049.4780.82020E3,204608.68.02,9310.3690

    2021E3,1602,891.53,3152,2412079.7735.72021E3,315541.78.03,0090.3603

    2022E3,2082,935.13,4312,2852110.5693.22022E3,431472.48.03,0890.2513

    2023E3,2562,979.53,5172,3292141.8653.12023E3,517420.78.13,1490.2445

    2024E3,3053,024.43,6062,3742173.5615.32024E3,606367.78.13,2100.2375

    2025E3,355626.603,070.23,6972,4202205.6579.82025E3,697313.48.13,2720.1304

    201

    (*0.915)

    *0.915

    GDP

    CAGR1.48%

    (*0.915)

    *0.915

    1 lnDsGDPBUL

    2 Ds(PGDP)

    3 lnPDsGDPBUL

    4 PDsPGDP

    (3.09%)(1.53%)0.41(*0.915)*0.915(CAGR=2.69%)(CAGR=1.95%)CAGR=1.52

    19893056001099.6--19891,0061,237--

    19904125631221.811.11%111221.811.11%19901,0981,227-0.79%11290.61676.12239.4

    19915145831477.220.90%111477.220.90%19911,3511,60630.91%20.79%1809.22004.0

    19925295421612.29.14%111612.29.14%19921,4751,7529.09%21768.22052.7

    19935736241947.820.82%3319931,7822,14622.47%31879.12078.0

    19945476121930.5-0.89%319941,7631,945-9.38%31568.11995.4

    19955466141905.0-1.32%3319951,7442,0153.60%31805.91933.0

    19965916441827.8-4.05%3319961,6721,768-12.25%21808.32146.7

    19976658942259.723.63%3319972,0682,08517.92%31828.7-0.60%

    19987089812439.27.94%2319982,2322,053-1.51%31789.1

    19996119272445.30.25%2219992,2381,970-4.03%21693.1

    20006879972576.95.38%2220002,3582,0885.99%30.10%

    20016901,0322262.5-12.20%3220012,0701,754-16.03%2

    20027711,0522548.312.63%2320022,3322,02515.45%2

    20038051,0782566.90.73%2220032,3512,0270.13%2

    20048661,0942817.89.77%2220042,5882,36416.61%3

    20058719852536.6-9.98%2220052,3212,020-14.54%2

    20069411,0682661.94.94%2220062,4362,002-0.90%2

    20071,0011,0892562.0-3.75%2220072,3451,900-5.08%2

    2008979.51008.82452.6-4.27%2,4532,4532,453220082,2441,9113.20%1,9111,9111,911

    2009e8701,0802,5282,4902,4632009e2,2781,9621,9481,940

    2010e8701,3302,6072,5282,4732010e2,3132,0151,9861,970

    2011e9801,3302,6872,5672,4832011e2,3492,0692,0251,999

    2012e9801,5802,7702,6062,4932012e2,3842,1252,0642,030

    2013e9801,5802,8562,6462,5032013e2,4212,1822,1052,061

    2014e9801,5802,9442,6872,5142014e2,4592,2412,1462,092

    2015e9801,5803,0352,7282,5242015e2,4962,3012,1882,124

    2016e9801,5803,1292,7692,5342016e2,5342,3632,2302,156

    2017e9801,5803,2252,8122,5452017e2,5732,4272,2742,189

    2018e9801,5803,3252,8552,5552018e2,6122,4922,3182,222

    2019e9801,5803,4282,8982,5662019e2,6522,5592,3632,256

    2020e9801,5803,5342,9432,5762020e2,6932,6282,4092,290

    2021e1,0801,5803,6432,9882,5872021e2,7342,6982,4562,325

    2022e1,0801,5803,7553,0342,5972022e2,7762,7712,5042,360

    2023e1,0801,5803,8713,0802,6082023e2,8182,8462,5532,396

    2024e1,0801,5803,9913,1272,6192024e2,8612,9222,6032,433

    2025e1,0801,5804,1143,1752,6292025e2,9053,0012,6542,470

    1989600.1

    1990562.7

    1991582.9

    1992542.1

    1993624.4

    1994612.2

    1995614.2

    1996644.4

    1997894.4

    1998981.1

    1999926.7

    2000997.1

    20011031.6

    20021052.4

    20031077.9

    20041093.8

    2005985.3

    20061068.2

    20071088.9

    2008E1008.8

    2009E

    2010E

    2011E

    2012E

    2013E

    2014E

    2015E

    2016E

    2017E

    2018E

    2019E

    2020E

    2021E

    2022E

    2023E

    2024E

    2025E

    (3.09%)

    (1.53%)

    0.41

    1989198919891989

    1990199019901990

    1991199119911991

    1992199219921992

    1993199319931993

    1994199419941994

    1995199519951995

    1996199619961996

    1997199719971997

    1998199819981998

    1999199919991999

    2000200020002000

    2001200120012001

    2002200220022002

    2003200320032003

    2004200420042004

    2005200520052005

    2006200620062006

    2007200720072007

    2008E2008E2008E2008E

    2009E2009E2009E2009E

    2010E2010E2010E2010E

    2011E2011E2011E2011E

    2012E2012E2012E2012E

    2013E2013E2013E2013E

    2014E2014E2014E2014E

    2015E2015E2015E2015E

    2016E2016E2016E2016E

    2017E2017E2017E2017E

    2018E2018E2018E2018E

    2019E2019E2019E2019E

    2020E2020E2020E2020E

    2021E2021E2021E2021E

    2022E2022E2022E2022E

    2023E2023E2023E2023E

    2024E2024E2024E2024E

    2025E2025E2025E2025E

    (*0.915)

    *0.915

    (CAGR=2.69%)

    (CAGR=1.95%)

    CAGR=1.52

    0.90.9

    19891,100-

    19901,22211.11%1,1000.00%

    19911,47720.90%1,1121.11%1,1000.00%

    19921,6129.14%1,1483.29%1,1010.11%11

    19931,94820.82%1,1954.04%1,1060.43%11

    19941,931-0.89%1,2706.30%1,1140.81%110.41%

    19951,905-1.32%1,3365.20%1,1301.40%13

    19961,828-4.05%1,3934.26%1,1511.82%13

    19972,26023.63%1,4363.12%1,1752.11%13

    19982,4397.94%1,5195.73%1,2012.23%131.25%1.53%

    19992,4450.25%1,6116.06%1,2332.65%32

    20002,5775.38%1,6945.18%1,2713.07%32

    20012,263-12.20%1,7835.21%1,3133.33%32

    20022,54812.63%1,8312.69%1,3603.58%32

    20032,5670.73%1,9023.92%1,4073.46%322.68%

    20042,8189.77%1,9693.49%1,4573.52%22

    20052,537-9.98%2,0544.31%1,5083.52%22

    20062,6624.94%2,1022.35%1,5623.62%22

    20072,562-3.75%2,1582.66%1,6163.45%22

    20082,453-4.27%2,1981.87%1,6703.35%222.78%3.09%

    4.09%10.20%3.71%1.49%2.35%1.19%

    0.90.20.50.9

    (e=b+c-d) []

    19891,237

    19901,227-0.79%1,2370.00%

    19911,60630.91%1,236-0.08%111,2370.00%1,2370.00%1,2370.00%

    19921,7529.09%1,2733.00%121,236-0.06%111236.181955-0.04%111236.572151-0.01%11

    19932,14622.47%1,3213.77%122.24%1,2652.39%121254.4584071.48%121240.18842180.29%11

    19941,945-9.38%1,4036.25%331,3103.50%121.95%1287.566070052.64%121248.236952930.65%13

    19952,0153.60%1,4573.86%321,3845.72%331345.380229924.49%132.14%1263.7326966161.24%13

    19961,768-12.25%1,5133.82%321,4434.21%321401.35663536554.16%231283.09273103551.53%12

    19972,08517.92%1,5391.68%311,4993.90%321457.21045104773.99%231306.08988460491.79%12

    19982,053-1.51%1,5933.55%322.57%1,5312.11%321497.87693555232.79%221329.33523815011.78%121.04%

    19991,970-4.03%1,6392.89%221,5813.27%322.69%1545.51668180183.18%221355.71735714021.98%32

    20002,0885.99%1,6722.02%211,6272.96%221592.34049352393.03%222.59%1384.06205195082.09%32

    20011,754-16.03%1,7142.49%221,6632.20%221632.31819412272.51%321412.88543622792.08%32

    20022,02515.45%1,7180.23%211,7042.43%221673.1139396862.50%321442.987861132.13%32

    20032,0270.13%1,7491.79%211,7150.66%211695.50266320521.34%321470.47821368951.91%321.64%

    20042,36416.61%1,7761.59%211,7421.56%211722.03742062861.57%321498.28761012571.89%22

    20052,020-14.54%1,8353.31%221,7701.59%211749.23952543771.58%321526.10301213781.86%22

    20062,002-0.90%1,8541.01%211,8222.97%221792.21702632992.46%321557.01216364632.03%22

    20071,900-5.08%1,8690.80%211,8471.39%211822.95851541491.72%321586.68094773161.91%22

    20081,9110.56%1,8720.17%211.26%1,8640.92%211.52%1845.75232473241.25%321.55%1614.86746636341.78%221.42%

    2.20%12.91%2.21%1.64%2.31%1.43%2.25%1.18%1.49%0.65%

    +1989~2008AAGR=1.04%CAGR

    -3.19%-2.58%-1.97%-3.06%-1.53%-0.41%

    2009E1,9502,7702,5312,5162,5012,5282,4902,4632,4782,529

    2010E2,2002,8662,6122,5812,5502,6072,5282,4732,5042,607

    2011E2,3102,9672,6952,6472,6002,6872,5672,4832,5302,657

    2012E2,5603,0732,7812,7162,6522,7702,6062,4932,5562,707

    2013E2,5603,1632,8702,7862,7042,8562,6462,5032,5832,758

    2014E2,5603,2572,9612,8582,7572,9442,6872,5142,6102,811

    2015E2,5603,3563,0562,9312,8123,0352,7282,5242,6372,864

    2016E2,5603,4583,1533,0072,8673,1292,7692,5342,6642,879

    2017E2,5603,5643,2543,0852,9233,2252,8122,5452,6922,893

    2018E2,5603,6573,3573,1642,9813,3252,8552,5552,7202,907

    2019E2,5603,7533,4653,2463,0403,4282,8982,5662,7482,922

    2020E2,5603,8533,5753,3303,1003,5342,9432,5762,7772,937

    2021E2,6603,9553,6893,4153,1613,6432,9882,5872,8062,951

    2022E2,6604,0623,8073,5043,2233,7553,0342,5972,8352,966

    2023E2,6604,1303,9283,5943,2863,8713,0802,6082,8642,981

    2024E2,6604,1994,0543,6873,3513,9913,1272,6192,8942,996

    2025E2,6604,2704,1833,7823,4174,1143,1752,6292,9243,011

    2025-1,6101,5231,1227571,454515-31264351

  • : (Isoquant Curve)

    ()*

    X1

    X2

    X3

    I1

    I2

    I3

    Q

    A

    B

    C

    +

  • *(CAGR=1.53%)2025515()*

    :=70:30

    99.41%78.32%66.97%

  • **

    STEEL-Up Policy401.2.:= 70:30401.2.

  • *

  • (Life Cycle Thinking)FAHP 97.12.11 98.04.29 97.11.27 97.12.30 98.06.24 98.10.08 *

  • *

  • () (WSA) Dimensions*

  • ()

    WSAHertin(2003)923WSASTEEL-UPLCA*

  • ()*

    /kg-eq NOx(air)NOx/VOC / COkg-eq PM2.5air PM10/ Sox()PM10/ SOx/ NOx / VOC SS, TDS, COD,:( kg-2-4-Dsoil) VOCPAHsH+()SOxNOxNH3HClHF -- (kg-eq Bezeneair )-- (kg-eq Tolueneair ) VOCPAHs

  • ()()**

    /*// CO2CH4N2O

  • ()()*

  • ()(LCA) (1)20072008()*

  • (3)IS: ; LCE: ; CF: ; Q : ; EF: ; RF : ; WF : i : ; j : ; y : ; m : ; st : ; r : ; w : (2)(Cause-Effect Chain)*

  • (4) *

    Baseline BAT BAT BAT BAT BAT

  • (2007)

    ()*

    NIS >1.25- - 1.05~1.25- 0.95~1.05O 0.75~0.95+

  • *20072025

    BAU 1.591.481.431.30 1.781.611.521.24 1.471.321.271.14 1.781.611.521.24 1.661.461.391.19 1.11.11.11.1 1.641.431.391.14 1.611.491.461.36 1.431.261.261.26 1.521.441.421.34 1.151.151.151.15 1.511.351.321.24 1.521.151.100.94 1.651.331.230.92 0.790.790.830.95 10.750.750.95 1.261.261.201.06 10.850.680.92 0.950.950.950.95 0.400.400.460.71 0.400.400.460.71 0.500.500.460.60 0.790.791.011.18

  • - -() (2007)- - *

  • ()()BAT*

    +++ ++++ ++ ++++ ++++ ++++ +++ +++ ++ +++ +++++ +++++ ++++ ++ ++++ +-

  • ()SOxPM10NOx202510%20%()20255()() () 100%36%*

    (NOx)(PM2.5)()( PO4201520252015202520152025201520252015202520072.731.2916.00.375524.354.641.802.0421.924.60.570.677368123.974.351.661.6321.423.30.520.616637273.453.691.541.5720.822.40.490.576477023.383.331.421.5020.319.90.470.46631632

  • () SOxNOx() ()*

    ( 2~4~Dsoil)(SO2-)( Bezene) Toluene2015202520152025201520252015202520075.824.060.687608.7810.235.716.260.941.07110312938.079.375.075.310.770.89100111677.648.844.865.150.750.8595910977.297.204.754.650.710.71920924

  • () 2025() () 202512%19%~21%() ()*

    ()()(CO2)2015202520152025201520252015202520077910.034.725.2 11412015.116.148.952.532.541.610911414.215.044.746.726.533.610811213.914.643.845.824.831.010710613.713.643.342.923.123.1

  • () (1084541.7%)()()()95%*

    2007 41,301 543 202581,06360981,06360977,138 57967,978 511

    Sheet1

    2.502.502.502.502.50

    2.573.193.382.582.93

    3.713.633.753.583.67

    3.432.502.382.582.72

  • ()2025()99.4%78.3%67.0%()20252,5981,463202521,73312,263*

    ()()(%)20078,6981,04078.8202521,7332,59899.421,7332,59899.418,8932,25978.312,2361,46367.0

  • *1*2(FAHP) (FAHP) FAHP(SAW)AHP FAHP -*1:*2:*

  • ()FAHP1. 2. 3. 4. 14 54*

  • *()FAHP*1084541.7% (1)(2)3.

    NGO10814462721458171373071177

    1.()2.()3.()4.()5.()6.()7.()1.()2.()3.()4.()5.()6.() 7.

  • *()FAHP*

    Sheet1

    0.090.080.070.090.09

    0.090.080.080.080.08

    0.090.080.070.080.08

    0.090.080.070.080.08

    0.090.080.070.080.08

    0.080.080.070.080.08

    0.190.320.280.240.26

    0.040.030.040.040.04

    0.030.030.030.030.03

    0.040.030.040.040.04

    0.040.020.040.030.03

    0.040.030.050.050.04

    0.040.030.040.040.04

    0.030.030.040.040.03

    0.070.130.160.190.14

    0.080.130.170.180.14

    0.090.150.210.200.16

    0.420.320.220.230.30

    0.340.270.250.200.27

    0.280.280.270.400.31

    0.220.220.230.350.26

    0.260.250.240.130.22

    0.240.250.260.120.22

  • ()FAHP()18%13%()6%15%()13%39%*

    Chart1

    0.8330127820.87377611391

    0.93636961340.93087149930.8412571907

    1.00451388890.9230453850.7800234506

    Sheet1

    ()

    1.kg-eq NOx(air)2.kg-eq PM2.5air( kg-2-4-Dsoil)( kg-2,4-Dwater)kg-eq SO2(kg-eq Bezeneair )(kg-eq Tolueneair )

    20072.53E+071.23E+071.38E+064.27E+093.76E+079.58E+043.62E+0711.02E+094.56E+118187009054.045271276206011.087.89E+101911.747.44E+095.56E-021.50E+086.43E+04148311.38E+061.38E+06181.77%

    2015

    20253.65E+071.68E+071.74E+066.28E+095.35E+071.33E+055.05E+0711.62E+097.24E+1112191477074.08131487150884.708151.16E+112191.741.06E+108.55E-022.39E+088.11E+040.756.09E+023.2211.74E+061.74E+060.7599.7%

    2015

    20253.54E+071.63E+071.66E+066.08E+094.93E+071.23E+054.93E+0711.46E+096.54E+1112015171824.84771487150884.708151.14E+112191.749.79E+098.05E-022.16E+087.71E+040.95.79E+023.7211.66E+061.66E+060.989.98%

    2015

    20253.28E+071.52E+071.46E+065.62E+093.96E+071.01E+054.66E+0711.10E+094.92E+1111603792909.96911487150884.708151.10E+112191.747.86E+096.89E-021.62E+086.80E+041.15.11E+022.5611.46E+061.46E+061.167.19%

    Max3.65E+071.68E+071.74E+066.28E+095.35E+071.33E+055.05E+071.00E+001.62E+097.24E+111.22E+101.49E+091.16E+112.19E+031.06E+108.55E-022.39E+088.11E+041.10E+006.09E+023.72E+001.00E+001.74E+061.74E+061.10E+009.97E-01

    Min3.28E+071.52E+071.46E+065.62E+093.96E+071.01E+054.66E+071.00E+001.10E+094.92E+111.16E+101.49E+091.10E+112.19E+037.86E+096.89E-021.62E+086.80E+047.50E-015.11E+022.56E+001.00E+001.46E+061.46E+067.50E-016.72E-01

    2007

    2015

    20250.900.900.840.890.740.760.921.000.680.680.951.000.941.000.740.810.681.001.000.840.871.001.001.001.001.00

    2015

    20250.930.930.880.920.800.820.941.000.750.750.971.000.961.000.800.860.750.950.830.881.001.000.950.950.830.90

    2015

    20251.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.000.840.681.000.691.000.840.840.680.67

    *2007

    2015

    20251.441.371.261.471.421.391.401.591.591.491.171.471.151.431.541.591.260.751.260.001.001.261.260.751.22

    2015

    20251.401.331.201.431.311.281.361.441.441.471.171.451.151.321.451.441.200.901.200.001.001.201.200.901.10

    2015

    20251.301.241.061.321.051.051.291.081.081.421.171.391.151.061.241.081.061.101.060.001.001.061.061.100.82

    0.110.110.100.080.080.080.19711676410.030.030.030.030.040.030.030.200.200.220.200.180.340.280.200.19

    AHP

    2015

    20250.09827049020.0901626810.09349151420.0618199330.07102703260.08344545940.13397265310.03208963560.03160766530.03170596920.03060270370.02696631640.02638182850.02146890.19523424010.19843480140.18787658150.1770139130.17781007750.33503937010.28162729660.19843346250.1894137597

    2015

    20250.10125804310.09475086930.09656090910.06703144590.07448065220.08344545940.14821647890.03256050450.03160766530.03223829940.03060270370.0292533810.02800874970.02376095230.18578027430.16536233450.19743722380.20448158910.17781007750.31881552160.26798985880.16536121880.1708787858

    2015

    20250.1089901420.10751730220.10457162270.08344545940.08460442410.08344545940.19711676410.0337148430.03160766530.03355275240.03060270370.03647073720.03271639660.03164372790.1637210210.13529645550.22403929190.14039034480.17781007750.28095987530.23616917050.13529554260.1275988622

    2015

    20250.8330127820.93636961341.0045138889

    2015

    20250.87377611390.93087149930.923045385

    2015

    202510.84125719070.7800234506

    Sheet1

    000

    000

    000

    CR

  • *

    () ()

  • *

  • *

  • *

    GDP95%90%C to C (Cradle to Cradle)

  • *

  • *

  • *

  • () /() ()

    *

  • 1.++ 2.(20092025)1.23%0~3%3.(2025)(X)100X500100~500>1000

    *

  • 4. 5020

    5. 7030 7030 ()*

  • =703070307030202578.32%66.97%7030*

  • * BAU

    BAU1.08E+071.08E+071.08E+071.08E+075.00E+065.00E+065.00E+065.00E+061.49E+072.55E+062.55E+06 2.55E+061.10E+061.34E+071.19E+077.25E+06

  • *

  • *1.

    ton/ton 0.258 0.363 0.216 0.216 ton/ton 1.640 1.4331.430 1.430 ton/ton 5.900 6.6/6.15.970 5.900 ton/ton 0.660 0.659 NA0.659 kWh/ton 172.06 483.000 NA172.06 kg/ton 2240 2150 1986 1986 kg/ton 0.956 0.977 0.796 0.796 kg/ton 1.041 0.705 0.765 0.705 10kg/ton 0.213 0.176 0.285 0.176 kg/ton 0.048 0.131 0.089 0.048ng-I TEQ/t20782078 NA2078kg/ton 3.17E-063.17E-06NA3.17E-06kg/ton 5.50E-055.50E-05NA5.50E-05kg/ton 9.20E-079.20E-07NA9.20E-07kg/ton 5.34E-065.34E-06NA5.34E-06 kg/ton 256.44 242.51 219.33 219.33 1. 2006 1. 1.2. 3. 4.

  • *2.

    ton/ton 1.471.251.25ton/ton 241717kWh/ton 480440440kg/ton 135.62 94.89 94.89 kg/ton 0.16 0.11 0.11 kg/ton 0.21 0.14 0.14 10kg/ton 0.03 0.01 0.01 kg/ton 0.28 0.28 0.28 kg-I TEQ/t3.05E-093.05E-091.77E-09kg/ton 8.03E-068.03E-067.88E-06kg/ton 1.97E-041.97E-041.91E-04kg/ton 9.63E-069.63E-069.30E-06kg/ton 2.02E-052.02E-051.97E-05()kg/ton 15813011011%~15%kg/ton 1814131.4~1.8%1.3%1. 2.3.

    *********************************************