第二篇 微观金融运行
DESCRIPTION
第二篇 微观金融运行. 学习目的. 金融运行就是金融系统的微观主体在一定的系统条件下进行的投融资活动及其相互作用的动态过程。金融体系的功能正是在金融运行的动态过程中得以实现。 金融运行可以从不同的角度进行分析。微观金融分析主要从个体的角度讨论微观金融主体的投资融资决策方法和行为。 - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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7
-
interestinterest rate
-
(market interest rate) (controlled interest rate)
-
(fixed interest rate)(floating interest rate)
-
(nominal interest rate)(real interest rate )(6-4)
-
Time Value of Money
-
(Simple Interest)(Principal) 6-5
SIPin
-
(Compound Interest)compounding
-
Future Value:6-6FVnnnPV
-
(Future Value Interest Factor)6-4
1
1.021.041.061.081.11.121.14
1.04041.08161.12361.16641.211.25441.2996
1.0612081.1248641.1910161.2597121.3311.4049281.481544
1.082432161.169858561.262476961.360488961.46411.573519361.68896016
1.10408080321.21665290241.33822557761.46932807681.610511.76234168321.9254145824
1.12616241931.26531901851.41851911231.58687432291.7715611.97382268522.1949726239
1.14868566761.31593177921.5036302591.71382426881.94871712.21068140742.5022687913
1.1716593811.36856905041.59384807451.85093021032.143588812.47596317632.8525864221
1.19509256861.42331181241.6894789591.99900462712.3579476912.77307875753.2519485212
1.218994421.48024428491.79084769652.15892499732.59374246013.10584820833.7072213141
1.24337430841.53945405631.89829855832.33163899712.85311670613.47854999334.2262322981
1.26824179461.60103221862.01219647182.51817011683.13842837673.89597599254.8179048198
1.29360663051.66507350732.13292826012.71962372623.45227121444.36349311175.4924114946
1.31947876311.73167644762.26090395582.93719362433.79749833584.88711228516.2613491038
1.34586833831.80094350552.39655819313.17216911424.17724816945.47356575937.1379379784
1.37278570511.87298124572.54035168473.42594264334.59497298646.13039365048.1372492954
1.40024141921.94790049562.69277278583.70001805485.0544702856.86604088849.2764641967
1.42824624762.02581651542.85433915293.99601949925.55991731357.68996579510.5751691843
1.45681117252.1068491763.02559950214.31570105916.11590904488.612761690412.05569287
1.4859473962.1911231433.20713547224.66095714386.72749994939.646293093313.7434898719
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Sheet1
2%4%6%8%10%12%14%
11.0201.0401.0601.0801.1001.1201.140
21.0401.0821.1241.1661.2101.2541.300
31.0611.1251.1911.2601.3311.4051.482
41.0821.1701.2621.3601.4641.5741.689
51.1041.2171.3381.4691.6111.7621.925
61.1261.2651.4191.5871.7721.9742.195
71.1491.3161.5041.7141.9492.2112.502
81.1721.3691.5941.8512.1442.4762.853
91.1951.4231.6891.9992.3582.7733.252
101.2191.4801.7912.1592.5943.1063.707
111.2431.5391.8982.3322.8533.4794.226
121.2681.6012.0122.5183.1383.8964.818
131.2941.6652.1332.7203.4524.3635.492
141.3191.7322.2612.9373.7974.8876.261
151.3461.8012.3973.1724.1775.4747.138
161.3731.8732.5403.4264.5956.1308.137
171.4001.9482.6933.7005.0546.8669.276
181.4282.0262.8543.9965.5607.69010.575
191.4572.1073.0264.3166.1168.61312.056
201.4862.1913.2074.6616.7279.64613.743
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
Sheet1
0000000
0000000
0000000
0000000
0000000
0000000
0000000
0000000
0000000
0000000
0000000
0000000
0000000
0000000
0000000
0000000
0000000
0000000
0000000
0000000
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Sheet2
Sheet3
-
Annual Percentage RateAPREffective Annual Rate , EFF
-
Effective Annual Rate , EFF
meAPRe=2.71828(5)
-
6-1 10%
-
6%53 1
=59834.03
-
(Present Value)(6-6)PVFVin
-
(Present Value Interest Factor)1/(1+i)n(i)(n)11
6-7im1n
-
Ctt
-
6-3
-
(Annuity)Ordinary Annuity, Immediate Annuity,
-
(1+i)
-
(Perpetuity)
C i
-
Net Present Value, NPV
CItCOtt
-
NPVOpportunity Cost of Fund, , Market Capitalization Rate
-
15100007258.8%16.5% 10000*0.7=7000PVO=7000510000PVI=[1/(1+0.065)5]*10000=7298.81NPV1=7298.81-7000=298.81>0PVO=7000570000.088*5*7000=3080PVI==[1/(1+0.065)5]*1080=7357.20NPV2=7357.20-7000=357.20NPV2NPV1
-
(Internal Rate of Return, IRR)
-
6-67.275%
-
6-2
-
x=0.065% IRR=7.3%+0.065%=7.365%
-
6-22 =1
-
(Law of One Price)
-
1:1.021:1.01(1.02-1.01)/1.01=1%
-
1:1.02, 1:1201:1241001:1241240012400120:1103.33103.331:1.02101.301.301.3%
-
(Zero-Coupon Bond)(Pure Discount Bond)
-
(Yield to Maturity) 110095%95=100-95=5=-/=(100-95)/95=5.26% 210090%90=100-90=10 5.41%i=(100/90)1/2-1=5.41% 51007%100=100*(1+0.07*5)=1356.19%i=(135/100)1/5-1=6.19%
-
Yield Curve 7-2
-
7-2
1
4.94929312463.37181464312.91125356792.91125356792.81932634692.81932634691.0172099666
7.32965.47294.1828494.1828493.9992043.357722251.0189893025
9.187.475.675.224.773.781.0198
9.45318634017.62899237665.77334257745.43244282484.74731500143.88455130581.022252415
9.80682348617.67575360415.85990749115.85990749114.7233837783.97953246131.0245903578
9.89721948877.71435877935.9170874565.9170874564.74734342524.14231266811.0264619755
1996-5-1
1996-8-23
1997-10-23
1998-3-25
1998-7-1
1998-12-7
2002-5-1
Sheet1
36123567-121-3(3)3-5(5)520361
5/15/932.169.188.829.3612.0612.247.567.568.468.648.829
7/11/933.1510.98910.9813.8614.049.189.1810.0810.2610.4410.62
1/1/953.1510.98910.9814.5814.769.189.1810.2610.4410.7110.89
7/1/953.1510.9810.0812.0615.1215.39.189.1810.4410.6210.9811.16
5/1/962.974.867.29.189.910.812.069.7210.9814.9415.128.828.82910.0810.1710.98
8/23/961.983.335.47.477.928.2899.1810.0811.712.428.287.9299.7210.1710.62
10/23/971.712.884.145.675.946.216.667.658.649.910.537.567.028.558.829.099.36
3/25/981.712.884.145.225.586.216.66
7/1/981.442.793.964.774.864.955.22
12/7/981.442.793.333.783.964.144.56.126.396.667.27.563.244.594.865.045.133.96
5/1/020.721.711.891.982.252.522.79
20%0.5761.3681.5121.5841.8002.0162.232
1.006975
0.250.51235
5/1/964.957.339.189.459.819.90
8/23/963.375.477.477.637.687.71
10/23/972.914.185.675.775.865.92
3/25/982.914.185.225.435.865.92
7/1/982.824.004.774.754.724.75
12/7/982.823.363.783.883.984.14
5/1/021.0171.0191.0201.0221.0251.026
20%1.0141.0151.0161.0181.0201.021
Sheet1
0000000
0000000
0000000
0000000
0000000
0000000
1996-5-1
1996-8-23
1997-10-23
1998-3-25
1998-7-1
1998-12-7
2002-5-1
Sheet2
Sheet3
-
10056% PV=100/(1+0.06)5= 74.73 236%PV=100/(1+0.06)3=83.96 7%PV=100/(1+0.07)3=81.63 5%PV=100/(1+0.05)3=86.38
-
7-3 7-4
-
(Coupon Bond)
-
PVnPMTiFV
-
(Par Bond)
-
(Premium Bond)100105%554%7-4PV=[1/0.04-1/(1+0.04)5*0.04]*(0.05*100)+[1/(1+0.04)5]*100=104.46104.46(Current Yield)=/=5/104.46=4.787%
-
100105%556%7-4PV=[1/0.06-1/(1+0.06)5*0.06]*(0.05*100)+[1/(1+0.06)5]*100=95.7995.79=/=5/95.79=5.22%
-
7-4 5%106102 =5/102=4.9%4.5 %102.24.5%4.6% PV=101.75
-
AAA
-
7-6knhc
kIChin
-
1010%100057%=+17-6i9.74%10%0.26%i=9.74%
-
PVttP0g N
-
1005%101:107%8/108%
-
DDM (D)P1-P0P0k 7-9
7-10
-
(7-10)
7-11 (7-11)(7-10)
(7-12)
-
D1=D2=Dt(7-12) (7-13)
(7-14) 0.102%P0=0.1/0.02=5
-
D 0g(7-15) (7-15)(7-12)
(7-16) g
-
0.205%6%P0=0.2(1+0.05)/(0.05-0.04)=21 P1=0.2(1+0.05)2/(0.05-0.04)=22.05 g =(22.05-21)/ 21=5%
-
(D)(E)(I)Dt=Et-It7-127-18
-
12
7-19 NPVI
-
A0.305%P0=0.3/0.05=6BA0.3055%8% h: I ie =0.044 =22.50
-
BA =22.50-6.00=12.50 C5%g=0.550.05=0.028, P0=(0.30.45)/(0.05-0.028)=6 D4%:g=0.550.04=0.022, P0=(0.30.45)/(0.05-0.022)=4.82 BA8%5%
-
MER t = Pt / Et MERPE(k)(NPVI)
-
20024920010.34 220010.2920024813.6013.60/0.29= 46.89720010.44120024816.93=16.93/0.441=38.392(38.39+46.897)/2=42.644
-
38.39 A63%25%8.67% 20-30%20%31.99230%29.563%8.0120024910.5130.9110.8832.008.5225.06
-
7-1 32001
-
1961MM
-
MM
-
risk
-
8-1
8-1
-
(credit risk)(price risk)
-
(interest rite risk)exchange rate risk(liquidity risk)
-
(purchasing power risk)(inflation risk)(business risk)
-
(national risk)solvency riskperformance risk
-
1
-
1550%30%10%-10%-30%0.10.20.40.20.15E(R)=0.1*50%+0.2*30%+0.4*10%+0.2*(-10%)+0.1*(-30%)=10%(expected yield)(8-1)RiPin
-
2 8-2
-
8-2
-
3 Var(R)(8-2) Var(R)=0.1*(50%-10%)2+0.2*(30%-10%)2 +0.4*(10%-10%)2+ 0.2*(-10% -10%)2+0.1*(-30% -10%)2 =480%
-
(8-3)
=22%
-
2 rating()48-13AAA3B8-2AB
-
potential losses
-
8-1 J4801998
-
8-2AB1970-1997Moodys Investors Sevvice,1997
Sheet1
(%)(%)
Aaa0.000.00
Aa0.050.12
A0.080.05
Baa0.200.29
Ba1.801.40
B8.305.03
-
1 2
-
3 4 5 8-2
-
8.2
-
(hedge)A
-
( insuring)A diversify
-
B10001:8.2568.2551000 B168.255
-
61:8.2768.27B8.25561:8.2068.20B8.255
-
C10001:8.2568.2551000 B16
-
61:8.2068.20B8.255 61:8.2768.27B8.255
-
D5100C1001:8.20 DC51:8.20100
-
1:8.10CD(8.20-8.10)X100=101:8.25DC(8.25-8.20)X100=51:8.20
-
BA10005B512%A510%8% BABA100010%AB10002% A8%-2%=6%2%B8%+2%=10%512%212%-10%5
-
D5%100ELIBOR+0.25%DE
-
gap managementA
- LG(8-4)GALG>0G
-
Insuring
-
Insuring Contracts
-
7%A1000.5%8%80%
-
10%(10%-8%)80%100=1.61000.5%=0.51.6-0.5=1.1 5%(7%-5%)100=20.52-0.5=1.5
-
Financial OptionsStrike Price
-
Put Option
-
B5010 5%100B501100100B100100-1=991100110B110110-100-1=9
-
Call OptionAA55%5%10011053%112.43[1]A105
-
112.43 [1] 15%PV=[1/0.05-1/(1+0.05)4*0.05]*(0.05*100)+[1/(1+0.05)4]*100+0.05*100=105 3%PV=[1/0.031/(1+0.03)4*0.03]*(0.05*100)+[1/(1+0.03)4]*100+0.05*100=112.4315%PV=[1/0.051/(1+0.05)4*0.05]*(0.05*100)+[1/(1+0.05)4]*100+0.05*100=105 3%PV=[1/0.031/(1+0.03)4*0.03]*(0.05*100)+[1/(1+0.03)4]*100+0.05*100=112.43112.43-105-1=6.43
-
[1]
8.4
-
(efficient portfolio)(Markowitz Efficient Frontier)12 15%015%0.20 20 8384
-
w 1-w
(8-5) B0.05+0.25[0.15-0.05]=0.075
(8-6) B 0.20.25=0.05
-
8-68-5
(8-7) (8-4)RF,
-
8-4
-
12%8-512%=5%+(15%-5%)w, w=(10%-5%)/12%=83%
-
1w21-w,
8-8
8-9 E(R )E(R1) 1E(R2) 2Var(R)Var(R1)1Var(R2)2Com(R1,R2)
-
1
115%0.20210%0.1508-4
-
8-4
8-6
-
CC136%
-
8-78-58-6TT
8-108-11
-
8-7 CBE(rp)
-
8-7
8-12
-
Capital Asset Pricing Model CAPM
-
Capital Market Theory
-
112Market Portfolio
-
2 MMCapital Market Line, CML, 9.1
-
9.1
-
(9.1)E(rP)rfE(rM)MMarket Price of Risk
-
3MMMMarket Portfolio
-
(9.2)RbRM e`
-
(9.2)(9.3)(9.3)9.2
-
=M=p=pMpWi
1std(RM)
-
CML(9.4)(Security Market Line, SML),
-
(9.5)(9.5)(9.4) (9.6)
-
9-3
- =0=1>1
-
1 (9.7)r,9.4
-
29.5
-
1
-
(passive invest strategy)122/3
-
21 kCAPMg(9.8)k (9.8)A0.35%AkkA4%A1.28%SMLkA=4%+1.2*(8%-4%)=8.8%(9.8)P0=0.3/(8.8%-5%)=9.09
-
2CC1.5, 5%10%SMLkA=5%+1.5*(10%-5%)=13%C13%
-
CAPM
-
CAPM3 CAPM
-
CAPMCAPMMultifactor CAPM9.9
RFF1,F2,.Fk1KbpfkkE(RFK)k
-
9.109.9CAPMCAPMCAPM
-
CAPM (9.11)
CAPM
-
1976[3](arbitrage pricing theory, APT)CAPMCAPMAPTnmn>mn
-
APTi 9.12
E(Ri) ibij Fjj;eiiVii
(9.13)
-
(9.14)
(9.19)APTCAPMCAPMCAPMAPT
-
APTCAPMCAPMAPTCAPM[4]
-
(1)2000100 (2)20006%3(3) 20003(4)34%20001051 4%1003210020001310520001
-
31006%/4=1.5 105 106.5 100+1004%/4=101.0 5.5 20002000
-
2000105951 95200012 100200013 4%10033 100+1004%/4=101.0 95 1006%/4=1.5 96.5 4.5
-
(theoretic price of futures)
-
1rPPF9.20FPyr9.209.21
-
2PFrP9.229.229.219.219.21F=100+100(0.04-0.06)=9898r-y(r-y)net financing cost, NFCcost of carry9-1
-
9-1
-
1c9.230.2%, F=100+100[0.04-(0.06-0.002)]=98.2
-
2borrowing ratelending rate1rBPPFH9.24A2PFLrLP 9.24B9.24A9.24B3.5%4.5% FH=100+100[0.045-(0.06-0.002)]=98.7FL=100+100[0.035-(0.06-0.002)]= 97.7
-
3
-
4
-
5
-
6
-
call option
-
1$20$22$18$21$22$1$1809-6 =$22 =$1=$20 =$18 =$0 9-6
-
$20$2222$122-1$20$181818 22-1=18, =0.250.25 $22 22 0.25 1=4.5$18 18 0.25 = 4.5$4.5
-
12%$4.5 f $20 20 0.25 f = 5 f 5 f = 4.367 f = 0.633$ 0.633$ 0.633$ 4.367$ 0.633
-
2 STfTSS (u > 1 , d < 1)u-11-dTSd9-7
-
9-7 Su,fuSSd,fd
SSu x - fuSSd, x - fdSu x - fu = Sd, x - fd 9-25
-
x r Sx-f
9-25(9-26)(9-27)
-
(9-26)(9-27) = 1.1 , d = 0.9 , r = 0.12 , T = 0.25 , =1=0(9-27)p = (e0.03-0.9)/(1.1-0.9) = 0.65239-26 = e0.03( 0.6523 * 1 + 0.3477 * 0 = 0.633
-
3 9-260.50.99-26p1-p [pfu+(1-p)fd] 9-26
-
T9-279-28
-
risk-neutral world9-28:9-26
-
$20$22$18$2112%12%22p +18(1 p)= 20e0.12*0.25p=0.6523$10.65230.3477 0.6523 1 + 0.3477 0 = $0.6523: 0.6523e0.12*0.25=0.633
-
303031terminal stock prices23010
-
Black-ScholesBlackScholescTXSsrT 9-31
9-31a
9-31bN(x)01x
-
S=100 r=0.1010%X=95 T=0.25(3)s=0.50(50%)
N(0.43)=0.664 N(0.18)=0.5714
-
Black-ScholesBlack-ScholesBlack-ScholesFinance EngineeringMathematic FinanceReal options