台灣能源需求面 管理 成本 效益分析之應用

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中華民國能源經濟學會能源經濟學術研討會. 台灣能源需求面 管理 成本 效益分析之應用. 許志義 國立中興大學應用經濟學系教授 國立中興大學產業發展研究中心主任 黃國暐 國立中興大學產業發展研究中心研究助理. 2010/11/19. 目 次. 一、研究動機與目的 3 二、研究方法與模型 5 三、成本效益檢定之模型 11 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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12010/11/19 3 5 11 27 28 31PCT 39 46 532(1/2)Energy Demand-Side Management, EDSM10EDSM(Cost Benefit Analysis, CBA)3(2/2)EDSM

4(1/6)CBADSM = () 5(2/6)(measured savings method)(deemed savings method)16(3/6)71 (evaluation protocol)(4/6)CBACBA8(5/6)DSM(Conservation programs) (Load management programs)(Fuel substitution programs)(Load building programs)(Self generation programs)9(6/6)Participant Test, PCTRatepayer Impact Measure Test, RIMTotal Resource Cost Test, TRCUtility Cost Test, UCT10(1/16)DSMDSM11(2/16)NPVpNPVavpBCRpDPpBpCpBjjCjjPjdBRttBIttTCttINCttPCtt(capital costs)ABattPACatt12

(3/16)EGitti(reduction in gross energy use)DGitti(reduction in gross billing demand)ACEittiACDittiKitEGitDGitti10OBRt(avoided bill payments)OBItIDSM13

ABatBRt(4/16)Participant Test, PCT(first cut)PCTPCTPCT14(5/16)Ratepayer Impact Measure, RIMDSMsavings from avoided supply costsDSMDSMDSM15(6/16)16

t=1

(7/16)LRIRIM(kWh)(kW)DSMFRIRIM(kWh)(kW)DSMARIRIM(kWh)(kW)DSMNPVRIMBCRRIMBRIMCRIME(kWh)(kW)UACttUICttRGttRLttPRCtDSMtEttkWhkWDSMUACattUACatRLatt17(8/16)ENitti(kWh)DNitti(kW)MCEittiMCDittiNTG(net-to-gross ratio)18

UACatUACtUACat(9/16)Lifecycle Revenue Impact, LRIDSMDSMRIMDSMDSMRIMRIMRIMDSM19(10/16)Total Resource Cost, TRCTRCDSMTRCPCTRIM(revenue shift)TRCPCTRIM20(11/16)DSM (revenue shift)DSMDSM21(12/16)NPVTRCBCRTRCLCTRC//BTRCCTRCLCRCIMPPCN22

(13/16)TRCSocietal Cost TestTRCDSMDSM23(14/16)Utility Cost Test, UCTProgram Administrator Test, PACIOUIOUDSMTRC(net savings)DSM(revenue shift)TRCTRC24(15/16)NPVUCTBCRUCTLCUCTBUCTDSMCUCTDSMLCpc

25

(16/16)1 26SCTTRCPCTRIMUCT()()

(1/1)(trade-offs)EDSM27(1/3)(PCT)(RIM)(TRC)(UCT)DSMDSMDSMDSMDSMDSM(savings from avoided costs) (load reduction)(willingness to pay)DSMDSMDSMESCODSMDSM28(2/3)(PCT)(RIM)(TRC)(UCT)(NPV) (benefit-cost ratio, BCR) (Discounted Payback, DP) DSM(LRIRIM) (ARIRIM) (levelized cost)(levelized cost) NPV>0BCR>1LRIRIM1NPV>0BCR>1NPV>0BCR>1DSMDSMDSMDSM(SCT) DSM29(3/3)(PCT)(RIM)(TRC)(UCT)DSM(revenue shift)(transfer payment)(revenue shift)(transfer payment)DSMChao(2010)30(1/8)BCABCAawarenessDSM1.2.DSM(portfolio)31(2/8)CBASCTBCRDSMNPVSCTDSMTRCadder32(3/8)DSMTRCSCTRIMPCTUCTBritish Columbia Utility Commission, BCUCTRCRIMDSMDSMTRC1RIM0.833(4/8)DSMOntario Power Authority, OPATRCtechnologies or measuresprogramsportfolios1OPALocal Electricity Distribution Company, LDCDSM2TRCDSM34(5/8)3OPATRC4OPATRC5free ridership rate6OPADSM

35(6/8)2008DSM(Solar Saver Pilot Program, SSP)BCR0.28-0.572008(Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative)20307040%

36(7/8) 1981(decoupling policy)(Electric Rate Adjustment Mechanism, ERAM)DSM public goods charge, PGCDSMCPUCDSMTRCUCTTRC2/3UCT1/337(8/8) Energy $martSM NYSERDATRCUCTNYPSCDSM

38PCT(1/7)DSM(PCT)

39PCT(2/7)(1)20(2)247149396(3)12.3555(4)10(5)1,37310%90%40PCT(3/7)(6)55.2kW27.6kW(7)99/10/1127.4(8)97/10/1(9)99/10/114.756%

41PCT(4/7)124%3%PCT

42NPV10,72317,674BCR2.022.47DP44PCT(5/7)PCBICOP (coefficient of performance)43PCT(6/7)ABaPACa(value of safety)

44PCT(7/7)12(net-to-gross ratio)DSM45(1/7)Chao(2010)()(1)ABAQ=12230-10PBQ=23380-60P(2)P=223(3)AB10,000kW5,000kW(4) 40%

46(2/7)3

47MCP(/)223A133313BCDEFDBDAQ(kW)10,0009,1005,0004,600(3/7)A3AAAB50%BA48(4/7)BMCABAC10,000kW4,600kW50%B

49(5/7)12B(Pareto Improvement)50(6/7)8 AB

51ABAB(/)5,000,000833,3505,000,0001,076,341(/)000-486,000(/)5,833,3505,590,341(7/7)50%(trade-offs)

52(1/4)DSMCBA(Total Resource Cost test, TRC)(adder)DSM53(2/4)CBACBA(time)(space)(scope)

54(3/4)1.(1)DSM(2)DSM(Standard Operating Procedure, SOP)(evaluation protocol)

55(4/4)2.(1)(2) (3)DSM(4)(pilot)DSM5657