# 第六章 資本預算評估方法

Post on 19-Mar-2016

68 views

Category:

## Documents

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

TRANSCRIPT

• 1. (Payback Period) 2. (Discounted Payback Period )

= + eq \F( , )

= + eq \F( , )

• = + eq \F( , )

= 3 + eq \F( \$500 - 100 - 150 - 150 , \$150 )

= 3 + eq \F( \$100 , \$150 )

= 3.67 (3 8 )

• = + eq \F( , )

= 4 + eq \F( \$500 - 91 - 124 - 113 - 102 , \$124 )

= 4 + eq \F( \$70 , \$124 )

= 4.56 ()

• (NPV)

NPV= CF0 + {eq \F( CF1 , (1+k) ) + eq \F( CF2 , (1+k)2 ) + ... + eq \F( CFn , (1+k)n )}

= CF0 + eq \i\su(t=1,n, )

eq \F( CFt , (1+k)t )

NPV = eq \i\su(t=0,n, )

eq \F( CFt , (1+k)t )

• NPV NPV = \$54.21 > 0

NPV= CF0 + {eq \F( CF1 , (1+k) ) + eq \F( CF2 , (1+k)2 ) + ... + eq \F( CFn , (1+k)n )}

= \$500 + {eq \F( 100 , 1.1 ) + eq \F(150,(1.1)2) + eq \F(150,(1.1)3) + eq \F(150,(1.1)4) + eq \F(200,(1.1)5)}

• (PI) > 1 NPV > 0

PI = eq \F( , )

= t=1,n, )

eq \F( CFt , (1+k)t )eq \F( , CF0 ) = t=1,n, )

eq \F( CFt , (1+k)t )eq \F( CF0 + [-CF0 + ] , CF0 )

= 1 + eq \F( NPV , CF0 )

• [] 10%

0123()-\$5,0002,0002,5003,000

• k* = IRR (Internal Rate of Return, IRR) (IRR)

NPV = CF0 + {eq \F( CF1 , (1+k*) ) + eq \F( CF2 , (1+k*)2 ) + ... + eq \F( CFn , (1+k*)n )} = 0

eq \i\su(t=0,n, )

eq \F( CFt , (1+IRR)t ) = 0

• IRR IRR = 13.78% A

\$500 + eq \F( 100 ,1+IRR) + eq \F( 150 ,(1+IRR)2) + eq \F( 150 ,(1+IRR)3) + eq \F( 150 ,(1+IRR)4) + eq \F( 200 ,(1+IRR)5) = 0

• 2. 100(1+IRR)2 - 420(1+IRR) + 360 = 0 5(1+IRR)2 - 21(1+IRR) + 18 = 0 [5(1+IRR) - 6][(1+IRR) - 3] = 0 IRR = 0.2 2.0

012-\$100 420 -360

\$100 + eq \F( 420 ,1+IRR) + eq \F( -360 ,(1+IRR)2) = 0

• 012-\$100 420 -360

• [] T

0123-\$500 1,950 -2,520 1,080

• 1. X (IRR x = 18% > IRR y = 15%) NPV

X Y 0(\$100 )(\$100 )165 35 230 35 330 35 410 35 IRR18%15%

• NPV IRR

• 2. IRR S L NPV L

L S 0(\$1,000 )(\$500 )1400 300 2500 300 3600 200 4300 200 NPV ( 10%)\$432.55 \$307.53 IRR28.9%38.9%

• -CF0(1+IRR)n + CF1(1+IRR)n-1 + ... + CFn = 0 CF1 IRR

CF0 + eq \F( CF1 ,1+IRR) + eq \F( CF2 ,(1+IRR)2) + ... + eq \F( CFn ,(1+IRR)n) = 0

• (Modified Internal Rate of Return) COF (Outflow) CIF (Inflow) k n no ni

eq \i\su(t=0,no, )

eq \F( COFt , (1+k)t ) = t=0,ni, )eq \F( CIFt(1+k)t , (1+MIRR)n )

• (1 + MIRR)4 = 1.5622

MIRR = (1.5622)1/4 - 1 = 0.118 = 11.80% MIRR

0-\$500 1300 2-200 3400 4200 IRR = 13.79%

\$500 + eq \F(200,(1.1)2) = eq \F( \$300( (1.1)3 + 400( 1.1 + 200 ,(1 + MIRR)4)

• (NPV) (IRR)IRRMIRRNPV > 0IRR > MIRR > NPV IRR MIRR

• IRR NPV MIRR NPV ( IRR) IRR

(NPV) (IRR)

• [] ABC 10%

(NPV) (IRR) (MIRR) ABC

A B C 0(\$3,000)(\$3,000)(\$1,500)11,90060050021,100800120038001,20015043002,000160

• NPVIRRMIRRA2 2.61 \$442.3 18.948%13.85%B3 3.65 \$474.215.796% 14.11%C 1.83 2.47 \$168.316.297%12.97%

• 1. 1960 -80

195919641970197519771979198134%24%12%15%9%10%2% (AAR)34302610251411 (IRR)19385737546065 (NPV)26101717

• 80.3%5.0%37.6% (AAR)59.010.714.6 (IRR)65.565.314.6 (NPV)67.616.530.02.53.2

• (3) 1990

• (4) 2000

Chart1

0.7561

0.7493

0.5674

0.5694

0.3892

0.2945

0.2029

0.1187

930836KAO CORP

TYPEDESCRIPTION19971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010

DETAILEDDETAILEDDETAILEDDETAILEDDETAILEDDETAILEDDETAILEDDETAILEDDETAILEDDETAILEDDETAILEDDETAILEDDETAILEDDETAILED

WC06026NATION0000000000000JAPAN

WC05350DATE OF FISCAL YEAR END3/31/973/31/983/31/993/31/003/31/013/31/023/31/033/31/043/31/053/31/063/31/073/31/083/31/093/31/10

WC01001NET SALES OR REVENUES\$901,401,000\$907,248,000\$924,595,000\$846,921,000\$821,629,000\$839,026,000\$865,247,000\$902,627,000\$936,851,000\$971,230,000\$1,231,808,000\$1,318,513,000\$1,276,316,000\$1,184,384,000

WC01051COST OF GOODS SOLD (EXCL DEPRECIATION)\$387,203,000\$396,685,000\$367,030,000\$313,920,000\$304,268,000\$302,949,000\$307,282,000\$319,611,000\$348,011,000\$366,976,000\$411,100,000\$460,709,000\$471,526,000\$408,227,000

WC01100GROSS INCOME\$440,607,000\$436,678,000\$488,158,000\$465,731,000\$458,506,000\$477,593,000\$499,655,000\$524,851,000\$532,048,000\$543,496,000\$728,537,000\$764,360,000\$717,328,000\$691,380,000

WC01151DEPRECIATION, DEPLETION AND AMORTIZATION\$73,591,000\$73,885,000\$69,407,000\$67,270,000\$58,855,000\$58,484,000\$58,310,000\$58,165,000\$56,793,000\$60,758,000\$92,171,000\$93,444,000\$87,462,000\$84,777,000

WC01149AMORTIZATION OF INTANGIBLES#NA#NA#NA#NA#NA#NA#NA#NA#NA#NA#NA#NA#NA#NA

WC01150AMORTIZATION OF DEFERRED CHARGES#NA#NA#NA#NA#NA#NA#NA#NA#NA#NA#NA#NA#NA#NA

WC01250OPERATING INCOME\$64,904,000\$67,255,000\$91,664,000\$99,181,000\$107,098,000\$111,727,000\$114,914,000\$119,705,000\$121,379,000\$120,134,000\$120,858,000\$116,252,000\$96,800,000\$94,033,000

WC01251INTEREST EXPENSE ON DEBT\$7,175,000\$6,940,000\$5,894,000\$2,852,000\$2,194,000\$1,689,000\$1,591,000\$1,234,000\$933,000\$1,396,000\$5,032,000\$6,626,000\$6,004,000\$4,232,000

WC01255INTEREST CAPITALIZED0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

WC01266NON-OPERATING INTEREST INCOME\$861,000\$1,431,000\$1,782,000\$1,615,000\$1,856,000\$1,528,000\$1,233,000\$944,000\$701,000\$1,161,000\$2,175,000\$2,949,000\$2,459,000\$968,000

WC01251INTEREST EXPENSE ON DEBT\$7,175,000\$6,940,000\$5,894,000\$2,852,000\$2,194,000\$1,689,000\$1,591,000\$1,234,000\$933,000\$1,396,000\$5,032,000\$6,626,000\$6,004,000\$4,232,000

WC01266NON-OPERATING INTEREST INCOME\$861,000\$1,431,000\$1,782,000\$1,615,000\$1,856,000\$1,528,000\$1,233,000\$944,000\$701,000\$1,161,000\$2,175,000\$2,949,000\$2,459,000\$968,000

WC01255INTEREST CAPITALIZED0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

WC01201RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT\$37,928,000\$37,842,000\$36,061,000\$38,062,000\$37,048,000\$37,543,000\$37,712,000\$38,506,000\$39,763,000\$40,262,000\$44,388,000\$45,070,000\$46,126,000\$44,911,000

WC01084SALARIES AND BENEFITS EXPENSES#NA#NA#NA#NA#NA#NA#NA#NA#NA#NA#NA#NA#NA#NA

WC01253EXTRAORDINARY CREDIT - PRETAX\$126,000\$338,000\$149,000\$166,000\$311,000\$319,000\$8,491,000\$248,000\$77,000\$220,000\$1,162,000\$400,000\$379,000\$437,000

WC01254EXTRAORDINARY CHARGE - PRETAX\$960,000\$13,433,000\$27,996,000\$3,477,000\$8,426,000\$5,925,000\$11,668,000\$5,084,000\$3,262,000\$3,270,000\$2,128,000\$2,521,000\$2,253,000\$8,449,000

WC01401PRETAX INCOME\$54,548,000\$46,095,000\$60,432,000\$93,181,000\$101,870,000\$107,940,000\$112,571,000\$117,142,000\$119,653,000\$116,908,000\$117,127,000\$110,397,000\$92,013,000\$82,961,000

WC01451INCOME TAXES\$27,647,000\$22,422,000\$24,875,000\$40,564,000\$41,163,000\$45,779,000\$47,648,000\$50,415,000\$47,118,000\$44,667,000\$45,124,000\$42,770,000\$26,570,000\$41,641,000

WC01401PRETAX INCOME\$54,548,000\$46,095,000\$60,432,000\$93,181,000\$101,870,000\$107,940,000\$112,571,000\$117,142,000\$119,653,000\$116,908,000\$117,127,000\$110,397,000\$92,013,000\$82,961,000

WC01451INCOME TAXES\$27,647,000\$22,422,000\$24,875,000\$40,564,000\$41,163,000\$45,779,000\$47,648,000\$50,415,000\$47,118,000\$44,667,000\$45,124,000\$42,770,000\$26,570,000\$41,641,000

WC01501MINORITY INTEREST\$425,000-\$133,000\$842,000\$469,000\$1,281,000\$1,887,000\$2,461,000\$1,369,000\$355,000\$1,101,000\$1,476,000\$1,066,000\$980,000\$814,000

WC01601EXTRA ITEMS & GAIN/LOSS SALE OF ASSETS0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

WC01701PREFERRED DIVIDEND REQUIREMENTS0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

WC01551NET INCOME BEFORE EXTRA ITEMS/PREFERRED DIVIDENDS\$27,594,000\$24,494,000\$34,714,000\$52,147,000\$59,426,000\$60,274,000\$62,462,000\$65,358,000\$72,180,000\$71,140,000\$70,527,000\$66,561,000\$64,463,000\$40,506,000

WC01701PREFERRED DIVIDEND REQUIREMENTS0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

WC18192DIVIDENDS PROVIDED FOR OR PAID - COMMON\$8,412,000\$9,294,000\$9,929,000\$11,259,000\$14,705,000\$15,468,000\$17,073,000\$17,443,000\$20,886,000\$27,252,000\$28,355,000\$29,211,000\$30,046,000\$30,567,000

WC18191EARNINGS BEFORE INTEREST AND TAXES (EBIT)\$61,723,000\$53,035,000\$66,326,000\$96,033,000\$104,064,000\$109,629,000\$114,162,000\$118,376,000\$120,586,000\$118,304,000\$122,159,000\$117,023,000\$98,017,000\$87,193,000

WC18198EBIT & DEPRECIATION\$135,314,000\$126,920,000\$135,733,000\$163,303,000\$162,919,000\$168,113,000\$172,472,000\$176,541,000\$177,379,000\$179,062,000\$214,330,000\$210,467,000\$185,479,000\$171,970,000

WC01706NET INCOME USED TO CALCULATE BASIC EARNINGS PER SHARE\$27,594,000\$24,494,000\$34,714,000\$52,147,000\$59,426,000\$60,274,000\$62,462,000\$65,358,000\$72,180,000\$71,140,000\$70,527,000\$66,561,000\$64,463,000\$40,506,000

WC01705NET INCOME USED TO CALCULATE DILUTED EARNINGS PER SHARE#NA#NA#NA#NA#NA#NA#NA#NA#NA#NA#NA#NA#NA\$40,506,000

WC01751NET INCOME AVAILABLE TO COMMON\$27,594,000\$24,494,000\$34,714,000\$52,147,000\$59,426,000\$60,274,000\$62,462,000\$65,358,000\$72,180,000\$71,140,000\$70,527,000\$66,561,000\$64,463,000\$40,506,000

WC07011EMPLOYEES\$6,994\$6,875\$6,754\$16,088\$19,068\$19,923\$19,807\$19,330\$19,143\$29,908\$32,175\$32,900\$33,745\$34,913

Title:10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity RateTitle:1-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate

Series ID:DGS10Series ID:DGS1

Source:Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve SystemSource:Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Release:H.15 Selected Interest RatesRelease:H.15 Selected Interest Rates

Se

Recommended