О проблеме прогноза больших солнечных вспышек

О проблеме прогноза больших О проблеме прогноза больших солнечных вспышек солнечных вспышек

БВ СомовБВ Сомов

Московский Государственный Университет им МВ Московский Государственный Университет им МВ ЛомоносоваЛомоносова

Государственный Астрономический Институт им ПК Государственный Астрономический Институт им ПК ШтернбергаШтернберга

ИКИ РАН 7-я конф laquoФизика плазмы в солнечной системеraquo 6-10 февраля 2012 г

AFOSR CONTRACTS F49620-00-C-0004 AND F49620-03-C-0019

K D LEKA G BARNES T R METCALF D DELLA-ROSE E K SCHUMER D LONGCOPEPhysics-based prediction for solar flares Physics-based prediction for solar flares

basedbased on the observed magnetic fields on the observed magnetic fields in active regionsin active regions

Analysis of Photospheric Magnetic Fields - Time SeriesAnalysis of Photospheric Magnetic Fields - Time Series

Coronal Magnetic Fields store the energyCoronal Magnetic Fields store the energy available for release in flaresavailable for release in flares

GAISH 2011

ldquoldquoLots of data lots of potential lots of work Lots of data lots of potential lots of work to dordquoto dordquo

ldquoMagnetic free energy determined for five ARs as a function of flare productivity Error bars reflect both uncertainties in the data and possible invalid assumptions used with the magnetic virial theoremrdquo

GAISH 2011

Главные недостатки современного Главные недостатки современного прогнозапрогноза

1Малая достоверность 2Слабая дифференцируемость информативность

Причина ndash недостаточное использование Причина ndash недостаточное использование физических представлений о механизме физических представлений о механизме вспышкивспышки

KD Leka KD Leka

Thanks to VN Ishkov

ldquohellipВ прошлый раз helliprdquo

Много раз докладывались и Много раз докладывались и обсуждались обсуждались bullФизика солнечных вспышекФизика солнечных вспышекbullТопологические модели АОТопологические модели АОbullТопологический триггер Топологический триггер вспышеквспышек

The Principle of the Classic Topological The Principle of the Classic Topological ModelModel

The separatrices cross at the separator The separatrices cross at the separator XX above the plane above the plane QQ of effective magnetic of effective magnetic chargescharges

The The separator separatesseparator separates the interacting the interacting magnetic fluxes by the separatricesmagnetic fluxes by the separatrices

The 1BM4 flare on 1980 November 5The 1BM4 flare on 1980 November 5My first flare

Soft and hard X-ray images obtained by Soft and hard X-ray images obtained by HXISSMM at 2233 UT HXISSMM at 2233 UT

Topological PortraitTopological Portrait

The topologically important magnetic field lines in The topologically important magnetic field lines in the plane the plane QQ of the effective magnetic sources of the effective magnetic sources

The active region AR 2776 where the flare on 1980 November 5 occurred

Gorbachev VS and Somov BV Adv Space Res 10 No 9 105 1990

The first practical use Soft X-ray The first practical use Soft X-ray SigmoidSigmoid

TheThe S S -shaped large-scale structure is not -shaped large-scale structure is not necessary to be a non-potential fieldnecessary to be a non-potential field

It can be interpreted in terms of a It can be interpreted in terms of a topological model for potential fieldtopological model for potential field

Somov BV Plasma Astrophysics Part II Reconnection and Flares Springer 2006

Advanced Topological Model for Advanced Topological Model for the Bastille-day Flarethe Bastille-day Flare

The SOHO MDI The SOHO MDI magnetogrammagnetogram July July 14 2000 the active 14 2000 the active region NOAA 9077region NOAA 9077

Model magnetogram Model magnetogram with 5 effective with 5 effective sources of magnetic sources of magnetic field field (the Monkey (the Monkey model)model)

Topological portrait and Topological portrait and the field lines forming the field lines forming

the separatricesthe separatrices

Location of energy Location of energy source in the flaresource in the flare

Locations and Locations and shapes of the shapes of the chromospheric chromospheric ribbons ribbons predicted by predicted by the topological the topological modelsmodels

The TRACE image of The TRACE image of the flare loops and the flare loops and ribbons at 171 A ribbons at 171 A

Somov BV Oreshina IV Lubimov GP Astronomy Reports 48 246 2004

Topological model allows Topological model allows to find position of energy to find position of energy source to calculate the source to calculate the magnetic flux reconnected magnetic flux reconnected at the separator and the at the separator and the electric fieldelectric field E ~ 30 Vcm E ~ 30 Vcm


Topological model allows us to Topological model allows us to investigate the investigate the structure of large-structure of large-scale magnetic field scale magnetic field

Observed large-scale dynamics of Observed large-scale dynamics of flares is determined by flares is determined by fast fast magnetic reconnectionmagnetic reconnection

ТТopological Trigger opological Trigger of of

Large Eruptive Solar FlaresLarge Eruptive Solar Flares

Somov BVSomov BV Astronomy LettAstronomy Lett 2008 2008 3434 635635SomovSomov BV Asian Journal of Physics 2008 BV Asian Journal of Physics 2008 1717 421 421

ООreshina IVreshina IV Somov BVSomov BV Astronomy LettAstronomy Lett 2009 2009 3535 220707

Topological Topological TriggerTrigger

Coronal null Coronal null XXcc quickly moves along the quickly moves along the separator and separator and switches switches backback thethe longitudinal longitudinal fieldfield

SlowSlow evolution of magnetic sources leads to a rapidrapid change of the coronal field topology

Gorbachev Kelrsquoner Somov Shvarts Soviet Astron 32 308 1988

Reconnection and Topological TriggerReconnection and Topological TriggerReconnection changes a topology of field Reconnection changes a topology of field

lines lines (step by step)(step by step) but but conserves the global conserves the global topologytopology of the field in an active region of the field in an active region

Topological trigger is a Topological trigger is a quickquick rearrangementrearrangement of of global topologyglobal topology

Topological trigger Reconnection in action

Structure of magnetic field in the corona before a trigger

λz(X1) lt0λz(X2) gt0

Change of the magnetic field structure in the beginning of trigger

λz(X1) gt0λz(X2) gt0

Final stage of trigger

λz(X1) lt0λz(X2) lt0

Criterion for the sudden appearance of

magnetic null at the separator in the corona

I sep= sign ( λz (X1) λz (X2) ) gt 0 where X1 и X2 are the null points at the separator footpoints

Oreshina IV Somov BV Astronomy Lett 35 207 2009

Вывод 1

Предложен метод который

позволяет предсказывать появление нулеввых точек в короне на

сепараторах те там где магнитная энергия накапливается и преобразуется

в энергию вспышки

Вывод 2

Существует параметр который характеризует величину продольного поля на сепараторе

Этот параметр - собственное значение z в основаниях сепаратора

Чем меньше его величина тем меньше продольное магнитное поле на сепараторе тем

лучше условия для пересоединениядля вспыщки

Эволюция АО NOAA 9077 перед Бастильской вспышкой

(14 июля 2000 г)

Модельные магнитограммы АО NOAA 9077

перед Бастильской вспышкой

Топологический портрет АО NOAA 9077


Расчет продольного поля на сепараторе в АО NOAA 9077 перед Бастильской

вспышкой

Уменьшение продольного магнитного поля навосточном сепараторе 12 12 июляиюля (синяя линия) и 14 14 июляиюля (красная линия)

Вывод 3


Нулевых точек в короне не обнаружено

Однако с точки зрения пересоединения условия в короне улучшились на обоих сепараторах что и

привело к вспышке

Oreshina AV Oreshina IV Somov BV Astron Astrophys in press 2012

Geoeffective flares on 2003 November Geoeffective flares on 2003 November 1818

GOES 12 flux in 10-80 A bandGOES 12 flux in 10-80 A band The flares in AR NOAA 10501 are marked in The flares in AR NOAA 10501 are marked in

graygray

AR NOAA 10501AR NOAA 10501

MDI SOHO MDI SOHO magnetogram magnetogram obtained on obtained on 2003 November 2003 November 18 at 0000 18 at 0000 UT UT The white The white (black) thick line (black) thick line are 200 G (-200 are 200 G (-200 G) levelsG) levels

Topological portrait of AR NOAA 10501 Topological portrait of AR NOAA 10501 on 2003 November 18 at 0000 UT

Solid curves are the intersections of the Solid curves are the intersections of the ceparatricesceparatrices with with the source plane X1 hellip X4 are the the source plane X1 hellip X4 are the zeroth points zeroth points of of

magnetic field the footpoints of magnetic field the footpoints of separatorsseparators

Evolution of magnetic field topologyEvolution of magnetic field topology

Maximum values of magnetic field at both separatorsMaximum values of magnetic field at both separatorsThe two largest flares occurred near the deepest The two largest flares occurred near the deepest

minimum of magnetic field at the both separatorsminimum of magnetic field at the both separators

Topologically Critical StateTopologically Critical State

Even minor changes in the magneric-Even minor changes in the magneric-source characteristics can lead to drastic source characteristics can lead to drastic changes in the topology of large-scale changes in the topology of large-scale magnetic field magnetic field

AR NOAA 10501 on 2003 November 18 AR NOAA 10501 on 2003 November 18 was very close to the was very close to the Topologically Topologically Critical State Critical State at 0800 UTat 0800 UT

Некоторые практические Некоторые практические вопросывопросы

Необходимо помнитьНеобходимо помнить Инструментальная поляризация

перемешивает продольное и поперечное состояния

Природу не обмануть

Нужен хороший современный Нужен хороший современный магнитографмагнитограф

Обработка информации и прогноз Обработка информации и прогноз вспышек вспышек

в режиме реального временив режиме реального времени

Winter SunСпасибо за вниманиеСпасибо за внимание

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AFOSR CONTRACTS F49620-00-C-0004 AND F49620-03-C-0019

K D LEKA G BARNES T R METCALF D DELLA-ROSE E K SCHUMER D LONGCOPEPhysics-based prediction for solar flares Physics-based prediction for solar flares

basedbased on the observed magnetic fields on the observed magnetic fields in active regionsin active regions

Analysis of Photospheric Magnetic Fields - Time SeriesAnalysis of Photospheric Magnetic Fields - Time Series

Coronal Magnetic Fields store the energyCoronal Magnetic Fields store the energy available for release in flaresavailable for release in flares

GAISH 2011



GAISH 2011




KD Leka KD Leka

Thanks to VN Ishkov



















































Вывод 1





Вывод 2






(14 июля 2000 г)






вспышкой


Вывод 3








graygray




















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GAISH 2011




KD Leka KD Leka

Thanks to VN Ishkov



















































Вывод 1





Вывод 2






(14 июля 2000 г)






вспышкой


Вывод 3








graygray




















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Вывод 1





Вывод 2






(14 июля 2000 г)






вспышкой


Вывод 3








graygray




















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Вывод 2






(14 июля 2000 г)






вспышкой


Вывод 3








graygray




















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(14 июля 2000 г)






вспышкой


Вывод 3








graygray




















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вспышкой


Вывод 3








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Вывод 3








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О проблеме прогноза больших солнечных вспышек

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