我國石化工業政策環境影響評估 第一次範疇界定會議

52
我我我我我我我我我我我我我我 我我我我我我我 我我我我我我我我我我 我我我我我我我我我我我 我我我我 97 我 8 我 27 我

Upload: lea

Post on 24-Jan-2016

95 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

DESCRIPTION

經濟部工業局委辦計畫. 我國石化工業政策環境影響評估 第一次範疇界定會議. 財團法人台灣綜合研究院. 中華民國 97 年 8 月 27 日. 簡報內容. 壹、國際石化工業發展概況 …………………………2 貳、 石化工業政策環境 影響評估 範圍與方案規劃 ..18 參、 石化工業政策環境 影響評估 方法與項目 ……. 26. 壹、國際石化工業發展概況. 石化工業發展強弱的衡量指標. 乙烯 (Ethylene) 為石化產業鏈之最上游,其 所衍伸之原料種類繁多,因此國際間常將乙烯產能視為衡量一個國家石化產業發展強弱的代表性指標。. 全球石化工業發展趨勢. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TRANSCRIPT

  • 97 8 27

  • 2 ..18 . 26

  • (Ethylene)

  • 20062007245.1199920063.3 200620124.7

  • () Platts 2008~2009

    Honam PC

    Korea

    400

    BASF

    Beligum

    280

    NPC~Nam

    Iran

    1,320

    PTT

    Thailand

    100

    YanSab

    Saudia Arabia

    1,300

    Haldia

    India

    150

    Lotte Daesan

    Korea

    350

    Ineos

    Germany

    100

    Sinope Yanzi Pc

    China

    100

    Tasnee

    Saudia Arabia

    1,300

    Sharq

    Saudia Arabia

    2008

    6,700

    Sinopec Fujina

    China

    800

    Dow Equate

    Kuwait

    850

    Q-Chem

    Qutar

    1,300

    Petrochina Dushanzi PC

    China

    100

    Sumitomo/Saudi Aramco

    Saudia Arabia

    1,300

    Petrochina-Fushun PC

    China

    800

    SinopecZhenhai refining

    China

    1,000

    Inovene

    Saudia Arabia

    1,200

    2009

    8,250

  • IEK(2007/10)125,139.5 116,172.3

  • CMAI

    ASEAN

    2006

    2012

    119.9

    158.4

    35.0

    54.0

    6.0

    7.3

    2.9

    4.4

    9.5

    19.2

    6.4

    10.6

    2.5

    4.8

    7.7

    7.7

    24.4

    25.0

    39.9

    42.3

    11.7

    26.7

    06-12

    38.4

    19.0

    1.3

    1.6

    9.7

    4.2

    2.3

    0.0

    0.6

    2.4

    15.0

    06-12

    4.7

    7.5

    3.3

    7.6

    12.5

    8.7

    11.1

    0.1

    0.4

    1.0

    14.7

  • 200025,298200634,471201245,000 CMAI

  • 200633,341201234,021200611,729201226,724 ()

  • CMAI ()

  • CMAI

  • CMAI

  • 20081 CMAI ()

  • 2008

  • GDP

    2007

    2.3%

    Chart1

    1951044.44385717

    449133

    399538

    43285

    192010

    172760

    1168104

    3871015

    47%

    1986894577

    19871047427.39012285

    19881123631.67083204

    19891111820.06462525

    19901096443.31266523

    199149686441219269.242464044987614666863207556618332196217093373288113515506596285616994611472855218172041706097406698299399169278023766690525736784652452129559

    199250151761199378.177435175217164900073170951044630475514503960652104322434846083817378811271461074193834730244421328308916175524924727092324740471055076124946

    199352454441209870.129346745430475125913045646758628006313007857445980283952258506168734107180615542190857930074782813147261914821261684105675442545450391120538

    199456947211372068.330625095536845226873099749801432483511624156938909423482856114190036128323617132249608455344994983460362109522283486120362945082453960117623

    199565219531642067.04441565933285637962953250681034957710627550958828603093251928218580154313642672175279733785890743843042505983308491154766947082356158122842

    199666520541545118.685786556061675765922957550961035609010541048110811373017250965200773133885668882067109907835985903921932712528331977175305045225351912123336

    199770633631614555.3720681851804448668431360525826374029104383474147995228107518452029871344606852720806611167757106994060762998500357684199246346962753746124980

    199872536601555482.7524174749159346263828955523897362137113665480957709323292538011988051295016930421768511571577330824240753230754349160221258949852551689118791

    199974557281620978.280958274854064589442646249171635214795768438017438519809545762035041384986500617786711284137113364170773475907368060249026645833052465106786

    200084223211896515.435684024645254398122471347957735158086059419386915616783523732217631556236614019423212073267962094111174106056406157304819448114658584111975

    200174411321832906.592888444558424294022644041653130969671002358335188314607372761836541242755937916716710150266583853566413491312341420260246639456950753102104

    200280585851951044.443857174491334182143091939953829616665821375514328512963303221920101349635704717276011681047960363720683871015364761288905945531259197102686

    20031-91642530

    2002(1-9)1413903

    199149686441219269.2424640449876156618311351516994617204170609716927805138592.24246404

    199250151761199378.1774351752171651044610432217378819383473024417552495188977.17743517

    199352454441209870.129346745430474675869802816873421908579300719148215414178.12934674

    199456947211372068.330625095536844980149094219003622496084553421095225884760.33062509

    199565219531642067.04441565933285068108286021858021752797337825059836740533.0444156

    199666520541545118.685786556061675096108113720077320671099078327125286852826.68578655

    199770633631614555.3720681851804452582679952202987208066111677529985007264705.37206818

    199872536601555482.7524174749159352389777093198805217685115715732307547452466.75241747

    199974557281620978.2809582748540649171674385203504177867112841334759077658176.28095827

    200084223211896515.4356840246452547957769156221763194232120732641060568639150.43568402

    200174411321832906.5928884445584241653151883183654167167101502634913127614321.59288844

    200280585851951044.4438571744913339953843285192010172760116810438710158246889.44385717

    200280585851951044.4438571744913339953843285192010172760116810438710158246889.44385717

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    1986894,5770.045,229-23,769-99,6350.08,478-67,3290.083,0660.059,5180.018,8210.0143,1300.051,7110.02938910.0

    19871,047,42717.09%142,866215.87%23,7690.00%95,444-4.21%6,906-18.54%72,6557.91%86,4114.03%67,09112.72%21,51414.31%150,1404.90%52,7562.02%32787311.56%

    19881,123,6327.28%148,7514.12%23,477-1.23%112,05217.40%6,534-5.39%76,3785.12%109,39126.59%71,8677.12%25,17317.01%136,377-9.17%55,6585.50%3579739.18%

    19891,111,820-1.05%161,5068.57%23,7801.29%98,278-12.29%6,495-0.60%84,29310.36%100,432-8.19%73,2341.90%26,6625.92%138,9711.90%54,319-2.41%343,850-3.95%

    19901,096,443-1.38%161,374-0.08%27,14314.14%93,076-5.29%6,7554.00%79,112-6.15%104,8174.37%75,8263.54%28,9208.47%139,1710.14%58,7328.12%321,517-6.49%

    19911,219,26911.20%169,9465.31%31,85217.35%100,1247.57%6,733-0.33%95,27420.43%124,44918.73%92,43921.91%30,5775.73%169,93422.10%61,9255.44%336,0154.51%49686440.245392755546668632075321962170933732885065962856114728552183584321230161699346192533601517204140669829939923766690525736784652452129559

    19921,199,378-1.63%173,7982.27%32,9833.55%94,060-6.06%6,8341.50%93,278-2.10%133,1817.02%98,3076.35%32,9257.68%159,152-6.34%64,3273.88%310,533-7.58%50151760.239149768149000731709304755145039606524348460838112714610743603361312321591526432731053319383442132830891624727092324740471055076124946

    19931,209,8700.87%168,734-2.91%33,3931.24%100,8707.24%6,672-2.37%82,631-11.41%146,86510.27%100,8142.55%33,4241.52%181,74914.20%59,574-7.39%295,144-4.96%52454440.2306516149512591304562800631300785744539522585061071806155437043113423818174959574295144219085478281314726261684105675442545450391120538

    19941,372,06813.41%190,03612.62%36,74810.05%139,67838.47%6,8873.22%104,40626.35%205,61140.00%108,2947.42%34,9554.58%168,917-7.06%58,027-2.60%318,5087.92%56947210.2409368836522687309973248351162415693834828561141283236171349333014324916891758027318508224960499498346036283486120362945082453960117623

    19951,642,06719.68%218,58015.02%40,55110.35%202,00544.62%7,64911.06%140,01134.10%293,93942.96%116,0167.13%36,5584.59%210,58024.66%63,7979.94%312,379-1.92%65219530.2517753569563796295323495771062755095830932519281543136426768415515257421058063797312379217527589074384304308491154766947082356158122842

    19961,545,119-5.90%200,773-8.15%42,7205.35%167,173-17.24%7,7791.70%121,428-13.27%241,410-17.87%119,9843.42%39,7058.61%227,4348.00%62,541-1.97%314,1720.57%66520540.2322769307576592295753560901054104811030172509651338856688858051015968922743462541314172206710598590392193331977175305045225351912123336

    19971,614,5554.49%202,9871.10%43,7482.41%172,1983.01%7,8701.17%125,9463.72%247,8782.68%126,1385.13%42,1856.25%255,02712.13%62,300-0.39%328,2784.49%70633630.2285816787486684313603740291043834741428107518451344606852759932216832325502762300328278208066710699406076357684199246346962753746124980

    19981,555,483-3.66%198,805-2.06%43,7600.03%150,062-12.85%7,523-4.41%114,354-9.20%248,0850.08%124,893-0.99%44,0404.40%256,0750.41%62,199-0.16%305,687-6.88%72536600.2144410894462638289553621371136654809523292538011295016930456378416893325607562199305687217685733082424075349160221258949852551689118791

    19991,620,9784.21%202,3801.80%43,9070.34%178,18518.74%7,086-5.81%106,158-7.17%251,6951.46%132,5926.16%46,2174.94%278,3458.70%61,538-1.06%312,8752.35%74557280.217413816745894426462352147957684380119809545761384986500658682217895027834561538312875177867711336417077368060249026645833052465106786

    20001,896,51517.00%219,3858.40%49,71413.23%245,40737.73%6,688-5.62%120,50013.51%295,31117.33%148,32711.87%47,9323.71%396,40442.41%62,1531.00%304,693-2.62%84223210.225177292143981224713351580860594193816783523731556236614072035519636039640462153304414194232796209411117406157304819448114658584111975

    20011,832,907-3.35%188,777-13.95%50,8952.38%270,86710.37%5,918-11.51%111,371-7.58%287,462-2.66%128,061-13.66%47,430-1.05%413,6624.35%57,550-7.41%270,914-11.09%74411320.246320935242940226440309696710023583314607372761242755937973353117721142118157550270246167167658385356641341420260246639456950753102104

    20021,951,0446.45%192,1141.77%48,786-4.14%311,22114.90%5,643-4.65%117,2005.23%303,4805.57%139,9309.27%48,0801.37%431,1174.22%63,79210.85%289,6816.93%80585850.242107571541821430919296166658213755112963303221349635704779043218769843110463792289713172760796036372068364761288905945531259197102686

    20031-91,642,530155,95240,506298,1634,36896,901250,790110,12738,889386,28250,479210,073

    2002(1-9)1,413,903142254362192124494292859192250741035733511330619346583216234

    152,772

    19510583,889

    11630

    A+++

    1986393,1600.099,6350.067,3290.083,0660.0143,1300.0

    1987404,6502.92%95,444-4.21%72,6557.91%86,4114.03%150,1404.90%

    1988434,1987.30%112,05217.40%76,3785.12%109,39126.59%136,377-9.17%

    1989421,974-2.82%98,278-12.29%84,29310.36%100,432-8.19%138,9711.90%

    1990416,176-1.37%93,076-5.29%79,112-6.15%104,8174.37%139,1710.14%

    1991489,78217.69%100,1247.57%95,27420.43%124,44918.73%169,93422.10%

    1992479,671-2.06%94,060-6.06%93,278-2.10%133,1817.02%159,152-6.34%

    1993512,1156.76%100,8707.24%82,631-11.41%146,86510.27%181,74914.20%

    1994618,61320.80%139,67838.47%104,40626.35%205,61140.00%168,917-7.06%

    1995846,53636.84%202,00544.62%140,01134.10%293,93942.96%210,58024.66%

    1996757,445-10.52%167,173-17.24%121,428-13.27%241,410-17.87%227,4348.00%

    1997801,0495.76%172,1983.01%125,9463.72%247,8782.68%255,02712.13%

    1998768,576-4.05%150,062-12.85%114,354-9.20%248,0850.08%256,0750.41%

    1999814,3835.96%178,18518.74%106,158-7.17%251,6951.46%278,3458.70%

    20001,057,62329.87%245,40737.73%120,50013.51%295,31117.33%396,40442.41%

    20011,083,3622.43%270,86710.37%111,371-7.58%287,462-2.66%413,6624.35%

    20021,163,0187.35%311,22114.90%117,2005.23%303,4805.57%431,1174.22%

    20031-91,032,136298,16396,901250,790386,282

    2002(1-9)829,63521244985919225074306193

    ++

    2002195101163040793,8013320480.13800.119.5%15709

    20082755815,1164191.98,250403919307.9

    80483486112.94449.1

    A++

    1986250,0300.099,6350.067,3290.083,0660.0

    1987254,5101.79%95,444-4.21%72,6557.91%86,4114.03%

    1988297,82117.02%112,05217.40%76,3785.12%109,39126.59%

    1989283,003-4.98%98,278-12.29%84,29310.36%100,432-8.19%

    1990277,005-2.12%93,076-5.29%79,112-6.15%104,8174.37%

    1991319,84715.47%100,1247.57%95,27420.43%124,44918.73%

    1992320,5190.21%94,060-6.06%93,278-2.10%133,1817.02%

    1993330,3663.07%100,8707.24%82,631-11.41%146,86510.27%

    1994449,69636.12%139,67838.47%104,40626.35%205,61140.00%

    1995635,95641.42%202,00544.62%140,01134.10%293,93942.96%

    1996530,011-16.66%167,173-17.24%121,428-13.27%241,410-17.87%

    1997546,0223.02%172,1983.01%125,9463.72%247,8782.68%

    1998512,501-6.14%150,062-12.85%114,354-9.20%248,0850.08%

    1999536,0384.59%178,18518.74%106,158-7.17%251,6951.46%

    2000661,21923.35%245,40737.73%120,50013.51%295,31117.33%

    2001669,7001.28%270,86710.37%111,371-7.58%287,462-2.66%

    2002731,9019.29%311,22114.90%117,2005.23%303,4805.57%

    20031-9645,854298,16396,901250,790

    2002(1-9)523,44221244985919225074

    2008927,764

    B+++

    1986377,8490.023,769-8,478-51,7110.02938910.0

    1987411,3048.85%23,7690.00%6,906-18.54%52,7562.02%32787311.56%

    1988443,6427.86%23,477-1.23%6,534-5.39%55,6585.50%3579739.18%

    1989428,444-3.43%23,7801.29%6,495-0.60%54,319-2.41%343,850-3.95%

    1990414,147-3.34%27,14314.14%6,7554.00%58,7328.12%321,517-6.49%

    1991436,5255.40%31,85217.35%6,733-0.33%61,9255.44%336,0154.51%

    1992414,677-5.01%32,9833.55%6,8341.50%64,3273.88%310,533-7.58%

    1993394,783-4.80%33,3931.24%6,672-2.37%59,574-7.39%295,144-4.96%

    1994420,1706.43%36,74810.05%6,8873.22%58,027-2.60%318,5087.92%

    1995424,3761.00%40,55110.35%7,64911.06%63,7979.94%312,379-1.92%

    1996427,2120.67%42,7205.35%7,7791.70%62,541-1.97%314,1720.57%

    1997442,1963.51%43,7482.41%7,8701.17%62,300-0.39%328,2784.49%

    1998419,169-5.21%43,7600.03%7,523-4.41%62,199-0.16%305,687-6.88%

    1999425,4061.49%43,9070.34%7,086-5.81%61,538-1.06%312,8752.35%

    2000423,248-0.51%49,71413.23%6,688-5.62%62,1531.00%304,693-2.62%

    2001385,277-8.97%50,8952.38%5,918-11.51%57,550-7.41%270,914-11.09%

    2002407,9025.87%48,786-4.14%5,643-4.65%63,79210.85%289,6816.93%

    20031-9305,42640,5064,36850,479210,073

    2002(1-9)303,32836219429246583216234

    1986-20021.62%

    2008449,190.95

    41,288.93

    C+

    1986104,7470.045,229-59,5180.0

    1987209,959100.44%142,866215.87%67,09112.72%

    1988220,6185.08%148,7514.12%71,8677.12%

    1989234,7406.40%161,5068.57%73,2341.90%

    1990237,2001.05%161,374-0.08%75,8263.54%

    1991262,38510.62%169,9465.31%92,43921.91%

    1992272,1053.70%173,7982.27%98,3076.35%

    1993269,548-0.94%168,734-2.91%100,8142.55%

    1994298,33010.68%190,03612.62%108,2947.42%

    1995334,59612.16%218,58015.02%116,0167.13%

    1996320,757-4.14%200,773-8.15%119,9843.42%

    1997329,1252.61%202,9871.10%126,1385.13%

    1998323,698-1.65%198,805-2.06%124,893-0.99%

    1999334,9723.48%202,3801.80%132,5926.16%

    2000367,7129.77%219,3858.40%148,32711.87%

    2001316,838-13.84%188,777-13.95%128,061-13.66%

    2002332,0444.80%192,1141.77%139,9309.27%

    20031-9266,07949.79%155,952110,127

    2002(1-9)245,827142254103573

    1987-20023.32

    2008403,926.33

    D

    198618,8210.018,8210.0

    198721,51414.31%21,51414.31%

    198825,17317.01%25,17317.01%

    198926,6625.91%26,6625.92%

    199028,9208.47%28,9208.47%

    199130,5775.73%30,5775.73%

    199232,9257.68%32,9257.68%

    199333,4241.52%33,4241.52%

    199434,9554.58%34,9554.58%

    199536,5584.59%36,5584.59%

    199639,7058.61%39,7058.61%

    199742,1856.25%42,1856.25%

    199844,0404.40%44,0404.40%

    199946,2174.94%46,2174.94%

    200047,9323.71%47,9323.71%

    200147,430-1.05%47,430-1.05%

    200248,0801.37%48,0801.37%

    20031-938,88998.02%38,889

    2002(1-9)35,11335113

    1986-20026.13%

    200868,705.83

    E

    631

    997.9

    187

    935.2

    2751.1

    2002A+B+C+D

    ++++++11,398.0

    3,320.4

    480.8

    15,199.2

    2002A+B+C+D

    0

    0

    0

    2008A+B+C+D+E

    2002

    ++++++13769.513769.563.4%1370060.4%11,398.02,302.0

    /6790.4719433.1%820036.1%3,320.44,879.6147.0%

    687.1755.83.5%8003.5%480.8319.266.4%

    15,199.2

    2124721719.322700

    5800

    28500

    2008A+B+C+D+E

    0

    0

    0

    2002A+B+C+D

    +++++++15,709.0

    3,320.4

    480.8

    19,510.2

    2002A+B+C+D

    0

    0

    0

    2008A+B+C+D+E

    10%

    +++++++19608.419608.471.2%

    /6790.47194.3326.1%

    687.1755.812.7%

    27085.927558.54

    2008A+B+C+D+E

    0

    0

    0

    1986751447

    1987897287.341146396

    1988987254.762499822

    1989972849.04560445

    1990957272.311226081

    19911049335.02141943

    19921040226.24088333

    19931028120.98736298

    19941203151.40122795

    19951431486.79776784

    19961317684.60575046

    19971359528.25074507

    19981299407.7483081

    19991342633.19399156

    20001500111.01153773

    20011419244.54935204

    20021519927.40166088

    2003F1594403.84434227

    2004F1672529.63271504

    2005F1754483.58471808

    2006F1840453.28036926

    2007F1930635.49110736

    2008F2025236.63017162

    1986894577

    19871047427.39012285

    19881123631.67083204

    19891111820.06462525

    19901096443.31266523

    19911219269.24246404

    19921199378.17743517

    19931209870.12934674

    19941372068.33062509

    19951642067.0444156

    19961545118.68578655

    19971614555.37206818

    19981555482.75241747

    19991620978.28095827

    20001896515.43568402

    20011832906.59288844

    20021951044.44385717

    2003F2054693.67993708

    2004F2163849.28168374

    2005F2278803.77477319

    2006F2399865.22530802

    2007F2527358.0654025

    2008F2661623.96262701

    Sheet3

  • GDP

    (%)

    (%)

    (%)

    2000

    5.77

    0.02

    1.69

    1.38

    0.28

    4.06

    5

    2001

    -2.17

    -0.04

    -2.19

    -1.8

    -0.36

    -0.06

    17

    2002

    4.64

    0.09

    2.01

    1.68

    0.33

    2.54

    7

    2003

    3.5

    -

    1.13

    1.04

    0.21

    2.37

    6

    2004

    6.15

    -0.07

    2.54

    2.19

    0.44

    3.68

    7

    2005

    4.16

    -0.13

    1.85

    1.59

    0.32

    2.44

    8

    2006

    4.89

    0.09

    2.10

    1.79

    0.36

    2.70

    7

    2007

    5.72

    -0.04

    2.83

    2.45

    0.5

    2.93

    9

    2008

    ()

    6.06

    -0.01

    3.24

    2.82

    0.56

    2.83

    9

  • ()() 3E

    20253.6100%

    1.

    2.

    3. 3

    1.

    2.

    1.

    2.

    3.

  • (1)(2)3E()201520251.97 5 27 2.

    /20072015202550525420152025()33,00040,00047,30016,29422,00036,00042053965944265665695%82%100%

  • 2005

    2015

    2025

    2005

    ~2015

    2015

    ~2025

    2005

    ~2025

    2005

    ~2015

    2015

    ~2025

    2005

    ~2025

    243,266

    (100.0%)

    118,096

    (100.0%)

    202,173

    (100.0%)

    293,735

    (100.0%)

    71.2%

    45.3%

    148.7%

    5.52%

    3.81%

    4.66%

    108,116

    (44.4%)

    157,620

    198,713

    45.8%

    26.1%

    83.8%

    3.84%

    2.34%

    3.09%

    30,177

    (25.6%)

    48,439

    (24.0%)

    64,622

    (22.0%)

    60.5%

    33.4%

    114.1%

    4.85%

    2.92%

    3.88%

    7,500

    (3.1%)

    17,785

    20,356

    137.1%

    14.5%

    171.4%

    9.02%

    1.36%

    5.12%

    1,307

    (1.1%)

    3,379

    (1.7%)

    3,982

    (1.4%)

    158.6%

    17.8%

    204.8%

    9.97%

    1.65%

    5.73%

  • CO220252000(214)112.4CO2

    Sheet1

    200520152025

    2005~20152015~20252005~20252005~20152015~20252005~2025

    $243,266100.0%

    $108,11644.4%$157,620$198,71345.8%26.1%83.8%3.84%2.34%3.09%

    $7,5003.1%$17,785$20,356137.1%14.5%171.4%9.02%1.36%5.12%

    200520152025

    2005~20152015~20252005~20252005~20152015~20252005~2025

    $118,096100.0%$202,173100.0%$293,735100.0%71.2%45.3%148.7%5.52%3.81%4.66%

    $30,17725.6%$48,43924.0%$64,62222.0%60.5%33.4%114.1%4.85%2.92%3.88%

    $1,3071.1%$3,3791.7%$3,9821.4%158.6%17.8%204.8%9.97%1.65%5.73%

    CO2

    200520152025

    2005~20152015~20252005~20252005~20152015~20252005~2025

    $257,265100.0%345,000~350,000100.0%370,000~375,000100.0%

    $143,35155.7%$190,64254.5%~55.3%$199,02853.1%~53.7%33.0%4.4%38.8%2.89%0.43%1.65%

    $30,47711.8%$44,74312.6%~12.8%$48,84113.0%~13.2%46.8%9.2%60.3%3.91%0.88%2.39%

    200520152025

    2005~20152015~20252005~20252005~20152015~20252005~2025

    4.753.943.08-17.1%-21.7%-35.2%-1.86%-2.42%-2.14%

    23.3313.2412.27-43.2%-7.4%-47.4%-5.51%-0.76%-3.16%

    Sheet2

    Sheet3

    Sheet1

    2005~20152015~20252005~20252005~20152015~20252005~2025

    $243,266100.0%

    $108,11644.4%$157,620$198,71345.8%26.1%83.8%3.84%2.34%3.09%

    $7,5003.1%$17,785$20,356137.1%14.5%171.4%9.02%1.36%5.12%

    2005~20152015~20252005~20252005~20152015~20252005~2025

    $118,096100.0%$202,173100.0%$293,735100.0%71.2%45.3%148.7%5.52%3.81%4.66%

    $30,17725.6%$48,43924.0%$64,62222.0%60.5%33.4%114.1%4.85%2.92%3.88%

    $1,3071.1%$3,3791.7%$3,9821.4%158.6%17.8%204.8%9.97%1.65%5.73%

    2005~20152015~20252005~20252005~20152015~20252005~2025

    $257,265100.0%345,000~350,000100.0%370,000~375,000100.0%

    $143,35155.7%$190,64254.5%~55.3%$199,02853.1%~53.7%33.0%4.4%38.8%2.89%0.43%1.65%

    $30,47711.8%$44,74312.6%~12.8%$48,84113.0%~13.2%46.8%9.2%60.3%3.91%0.88%2.39%

    2005~20152015~20252005~20252005~20152015~20252005~2025

    4.753.943.08-17.1%-21.7%-35.2%-1.86%-2.42%-2.14%

    23.3313.2412.27-43.2%-7.4%-47.4%-5.51%-0.76%-3.16%

    Sheet2

    Sheet3

  • (1)()(2)

    ()660

  • (1)(2)CO220252000

    550 CO220252000(214)CO2

  • 1.2.3.4.(10)5.6.7.8.9.

  • ()

    ()

    ()

    ()

    ()

  • ()()()()()()()()()()()

  • (Policy) SEA

  • ()

  • consultation

  • TSPPM10SO2NO2O3PbCO H+() ) (LUI)

  • ()GDPGDP

  • ()

    /

    (TSPPM10)(SO2)(NO2)(O3)(Pb) CO

    1.

    2.

    3.

    TSPPM10SO2NO2O3PbCO

    (Distance to Target Method)

    TSPPM10SO2NO2O3PbCO

    4.

    1.

    kg-eq NOx(air)

    NOx

    NMVOC

    2.kg-eq PM2.5air

    SOxNOxTSP

    PM10,SOx,

    PAHs

    1.

    T-P(NH3-N)(SS)(CN-)BOD

    2.

  • ()()

    /

    1. (Distance to Target Method)

    2.

    Disturbance Case

  • ()

    /

    ( kg-2-4-Dsoil)

    (2,4-D)(2,4-Dichlorophenoxyacetic acid)

    VOCsPAH

    Hmole

    SOxNOxNH3HClHF

    SOxNOxNH3HClHF

    ( kg-2,4-Dwater)

    2,4-D

    VOCsPAH

    Hmole

    SOxNOxNH3HClHF

    SOxNOxNH3HClHF

  • ()

    /

    (kg-eq Bezeneair )

    (kg-eq Tolueneair )

    VOCsPAH

  • ()

    /

    LUI(land use index)

    1. (Distance to Target Method)

    2.

    1.

    2.

    3.

  • () ()

    /

    1. (Distance to Target Method)

    2.

    /

    1.

    2.

  • ()

    /

    Ozone Depleting Substances, ODSCFC-11

    1. CFC-11

    CO2CH4CFC-11CFC-12N2OO3

    (CO2)

    1. CO2

    CO2CH4

    -

    (LLW)

    (HLW)

    1.

    (LLW)

    (HLW)

  • ()

    /

    -

    GDP

    GDP

    GDP

    GDP

    GDP

  • ()

    /

    GDP/

    /

    (-)/

  • ()731972921

  • ()

  • 1. ()2. ? ()3. (level) ()4. ()5. ()6. ()

    1.()2. ()3. (p.2-p.4) 4. ()

  • 1. ()2.NGO()

    1.()2. ()3.()4.()5.()

    1.(TSP)(SOx)(NOx) (VOCs)()2.CO2VOCs ()3. ()4.CO2()5.CO22009COP14()

  • 6. ? ()7.CO2 ()8. ()9. () ()()10.(BAT) ()11. () 1. ()2. ()

    1. ()2. ( )