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11 P0 = , P1 = , Div1 = (dividend) ke = 1(1) (, ) . . . 1 (One-Period Valuation Model)

(1)2 1. 2. (1, ,) 3. (PER, PBR, EV/EBITDA ) 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. : , ?16 . Pn = n Dn = n 1 , n . ke = 0.12 , 75 $50 1 . ($50/(1.1275) =$0.01 ). (Generalized Dividend Valuation Model)

(2)4 5 2008 3 16(), 300 (FRB) JP .

Bear Stearns: 5

150$ 100 50 150 100 50 20042005200620072008 2007 $170 $5 . < >19

P0 ( < 1 ). g < ke (4) . . . (4) (5) ke = 0.1(10%) g = 0.12(12%) (-) .(, 0 .) 4 P0 . 20 () 3 . (D1) (g) (ke)

(5)

=

=

P0= = = 21 , . . . . ? (31 )22 . () 15% . (Gordon Growth model) : $2 . 3% . ? . 23 (ke) (P0) (/) 15% 2/(0.15-0.03) = $16.67 ( /) 12% 2/(0.12-0.03) = $22.22 ( /) 10% 2/(0.10-0.03) = $28.57 ( (ke) ) .

. 12% (, 12%) 10%.24 . . (good news) : ke (bad news) : ke .25 () ke () g P0 () RETe ke () g P0 , . 27 . . 2 () . 31 (Price Earnings Ratio; PER) 1 1 . (Price Earnings Valuation Approach)

(6) PE P/E . . . PER ( ) .32

PER . ( .) PER . 1 . 33 EPS (Earnings Per Share; ) . EPS . PER 100% . PER 8 8 . 8 8.36 PER (-) . , PER . PER : PER % .

(earning yield) PER 10 , 10% . 40

(Price Book-value Ratio: PBR) . , , (Book-value) . 1 (Book-value Per Share; BPS). PER . PBR . 54 . : i = re + e ( re = i e ) QD = f (, RETeR, , ) BS = f (, , e, ) (Rational Expectations) 55 ( !) . EX) , . . (Adaptive Expectations Hypothesis)

56 Xof = (optimal forecast or the best guess possible) Xe = Xof . Let Xe = X . Then : X ( ) . (Rational Expectations Hypothesis)57 . . (, ) . . (random) 0. 58 ) . . . ? . . .( ) . .59 . (The Efficient Market Hypothesis; EMH) . . ; . 60 . Pt+1 (8) Pet+1 = Poft+1 , RETe = RETof (10) Pet+1 RETe . .(8) Pt+1 Pt + C RET = Pt

Pet+1 Pt + C RETe =

(9)Pt61 . RETe = RET* (11) (10) (11) . 5 RETe , , RET*, . ( . )

(12)62 (Pt) (, ) . . . . 1 200 ( ) . $1,000 10% Pt = $1,000, RET* = 12% . 63RETof > RET*(=12%) . Pt . Pt RETof .

, Pet+1= $1,200

$1,000 $1,150 : RETof = RET* = 12% . 64, RETof < RET*(=12%) . Pt . Pt RETof . RETof = RET* Pt .

Pet+1 = $800 Pt ? (Pt) (, ) .67 1. . . . . S & P 500 (70) (80 90) . 68 2. . . . (The Federal Open Market Committee) . . . . 69 : . , . 3. (random walk) . (random walk) (, ) . 70 , . : . 4. . (technical analysis): (; )

71

()73 2. 1 (January Effect) 1 ( ) . 1 . : ( .) : ( ) 12 1 1 .74 3. (overreaction) . (fundamental) . EX) (overshooting) , , . . , .755. (Mean reversion)4. (Excess Volatility) (, ) : . ( ) (stochastic) (, ) ( ) . ( ) .78 (outguessing the market) . (hot tips) . (good news) . (buy and hold strategy) ; . ( ) . Tip81

. ? 82 (, ) MMF(, ) . MMF . 1926 $1 2,000 $2,845.63 . $40.22, $15.64 . . (: 1926-2000) : 13.0% : 5.6%, : 3.8% : 3.2% 90 , , . ( ) 84 : . . . , : . : . . . . . 86 . . . 1987 10 19, (508 ) 22.6% . 2 89 8 2691 . 2000 4 14 (Bloody Friday) 616.23 .( 5.64%) 87 ( ) . ( ) . 87 GDP 3.4%, 3.1% GDP 50% . ? . 88 . , margin call ( ) . 4% . 45 (Price Sales Ratio: PSR) PER (-) PER . , .

. (Sales Per Share; SPS) , , , . 46 PSR PER (margin) .

PSR . PER margin PSR . , . . 47 (Price Cash-flow Ratio: PCR) .

= + 48 , , . , . 1 (Cash-flow Per Share; CPS). . . . 49 PER PCR PCR . PER PCR . PER . PCR % , , 1 PER . , (4% ) 6~8% 10~12% . 10 PCR . PCR 5 20% 10% . 50 EV/EBITDA EBITDA ', , (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization) . , , , (Amortization) . EV(Enterprise Value) ( ) . , EV () () . EBITDA . .(1 )51 vs. EBITDA

. , . ( ) . EBITDA , , , . EBITDA . 52 PER . EV/EBITDA . (EV) (EBITDA) . .

53 EV/EBITDA ( ) . PER . PEREV/EBITDA

65 . : . . .

66: .( ) ? . . , (systematically beating the market) . .: , (market fundamentals; ) .72 1. (small-firm effect): . . . : , , , . 76 , . ; , .

77 . , , .6. .79 (Buy and hold )

Warren BuffetOur favorite holding period is forever. 80

500 ROE 10%20%30%1 164944581569ROE= (Return on Equity) = (/)*10083 1990-20082000-2008KOSPI 1( )6.6%9.4%21.7%2%(1+2)8.4%11.4%10.3%6.2% ()3.0%5.9%()4.0%3.6% 6.6%(96-08)4.9% -3.1%0.41%4.6%3.2%85 (86 1 89 12)

The Black Monday Crash of 1987 1987 28920 : 30 : 40 : 2(41-45) 50 : 60 : ( )70 : (2 )80 : 90 : (), ()00 : , 03 - 07 , 08 , 09 A 90 (DJIA: Dow Jones Industrial Average) (NYSE: New York Stock Exchange) GE, GM, IBM, AT&T (blue chip) 30 . 30 . 1896 Wall Street Journal (Charles Dow) 12 , . Dow Jones

91 2008 2, (Altria Group) (Honeywell International) Bank of America Chevron 2008 9 850 AIG Kraft Foods . 2009 6 GM . 450 40% . (Travelers Companies) (Cisco Systems) . 92 Wall Street Journal . 2012 9 () (Kraft Foods) (UnitedHealth Group) . 1896 12 GE . S&P 500 Dow . . 93

. Alcoa Inc.(, , , , )

, . 3M Co.(, , , , , )

, , American Express Co. Dow Jones 30 201211

AT&T

Boeing Co.

Bank of America Corp 94

Caterpillar Inc.( , , , . ) Coca-Cola Co.( , , , .. )

Dupont (, , , , , ) Exxon Mobil Corp.( , , ..)

General Electric Co.(, , , , )

Chevron Corp. ( , , ..) Travelers Companies, Inc. ( )

95& Hewlett-Packard Co.( , , PDA, ... )

Home Depot Inc.( )

Intel Corp.(CPU, , ..)

International Business Machines Corp.(, , , ..)

Johnson & Johnson(, , ..)

JPMorgan Chase & Co.(, , , ... )

Cisco Systems, Inc.( , , )

96 . Merck & Co. Inc.

Microsoft Corp.(window, Office, , X-box..)

Pfizer Inc.(, , ...)

Procter & Gamble Co.( , , , , , ...)

United Technologies Corp.(, , Otis, , ..)

McDonald's Corp.

UnitedHealth Group, Inc.(United Health Care, Ovations )

97 Verizon Communications Inc.(, DSL, )

Wal-Mart Stores Inc.

Walt Disney Co.(, , , ...)

$AIG 98 . . . 4-6 4-6 .99 20 : (1) (, ) , , (2) , , (3) , , (4) ( ) (speculative bubble) . . (20 , 80 , 2008 )100(Dow Jones ; 72 1 13 7) (Dow Jones , 1910 - 1954; 69/12/31=100 ) ( ) 2520 #(Dow Jones ; 72 1 81 12) (70 )#103(Dow Jones ; 83 1 90 12) (87 Black Monday )(Dow Jones ; 00 1 13 7) #105965.9(3/89)496.3(8/92)1110.5(11/94)312.2(9/98)(KOSPI; 81 1 13 7, ) 106( ; 81 1 13 7, ) ) KOSPI : 1980 1 4 = 100, DJIA 1969 12 31 = 100 107

(KOSPI; 07 10 1 07 11 20, ) 120 60 20 5 GDDD108 5 : 20 : 60 : 3 : 120 : 6 : (Dead Cross): . (Golden Cross): . Cross / . ( ) . . , (random walk) . . B . ( .) 110 (random walk) . .

Let = (white noise): (random error term) (random shock) . :1) 0 2) 3) () .2) :3) :

1) 0 :

(Random Walk without Drift)111

., 0 () . 112

+ )

St .

or ( ) : [] [] . 0 S0 . (1) (2) St S0 .113

0 0 0

(3) (4)114

(5) (6)

Similarly,115

( )

. . 116 (= ) . ( (nonstationary.) . (5) (6) ( .) .( (infinite memory) .)

S2 0 2 S2 S 2 . 117Ex) , GDP

If > 0, St .If < 0, St . (the drift parameter) . () . (7), St . St . , E( St) = . (Random Walk with a Drift)118

(8) , St , S0 + t . 0 S0 . 119

( )

(9) (10) (11) (12) (13)120

Similarly,

, St .121

. . . s s . (12) (13) .

(8) ;

122

.Chart10500500500155060065026057208453665.58641098.54732.051036.81428.055805.2551244.161856.4656885.78051492.9922413.40457974.358551791.59043137.4258581071.7944052149.908484078.65360591178.97384552579.8901765302.2496865101296.871230053095.86821126892.92459245111426.5583530553715.041853448960.801970185121569.21418836054458.05022412811649.0425612405

Sheet10500500500155060065026057208453665.58641098.54732.051036.81428.055805.2551244.161856.4656885.78051492.9922413.40457974.358551791.59043137.4258581071.7944052149.908484078.65360591178.97384552579.8901765302.2496865101296.871230053095.86821126892.92459245111426.5583530553715.041853448960.801970185121569.21418836054458.05022412811649.0425612405

Sheet2

Sheet3

Chart21238.161283.231268.831266.361279.413141342.91326.181317.951348.971432.881517.021534.861652.731757.351807.051801.81867.71809.521843.451813.471817.041883.651724.072065.132202.872292.612302.642291.112384.022481.722655.012561.382224.591931.861910.071947.351980.652044.312036.131988.912104.942104.222051.292080.062144.312098.942148.582234.682304.32283.622348.912439.552494.892554.032691.112693.412694.052642.492728.47

Dow Jones Industrial AverageThe Black Monday Crash of 1987

dowJan-72904.65Jan-72Feb-72914.37Feb-72Mar-72939.23Mar-72Apr-72958.16Apr-72May-72948.22May-72Jun-72943.43Jun-72Jul-72925.91Jul-72Aug-72958.34Aug-72Sep-72950.58Sep-72Oct-72944.1Oct-72Nov-721001.19Nov-72Dec-721020.32Dec-72Jan-731026.82Jan-73Feb-73974.04Feb-73Mar-73957.24Mar-73Apr-73944.1Apr-73May-73922.41May-73Jun-73893.9Jun-73Jul-73903.61Jul-73Aug-73883.73Aug-73Sep-73909.98Sep-73Oct-73967.62Oct-73Nov-73878.98Nov-73Dec-73824.08Dec-73Jan-74857.24Jan-74Feb-74831.34Feb-74Mar-74873.99Mar-74Apr-74847.74Apr-74May-74830.25May-74Jun-74831.43Jun-74Jul-74783Jul-74Aug-74729.3Aug-74Sep-74651.28Sep-74Oct-74638.63Oct-74Nov-74642.1Nov-74Dec-74596.5Dec-74Jan-75659.09Jan-75Feb-75724.89Feb-75Mar-75765.06Mar-75Apr-75790.93Apr-75May-75836.56May-75Jun-75845.7Jun-75Jul-75856.28Jul-75Aug-75815.51Aug-75Sep-75818.28Sep-75Oct-75831.26Oct-75Nov-75845.51Nov-75Dec-75840.8Dec-75Jan-76929.34Jan-76Feb-76971.7Feb-76Mar-76988.55Mar-76Apr-76992.51Apr-76May-76988.82May-76Jun-76985.59Jun-76Jul-76993.2Jul-76Aug-76981.63Aug-76Sep-76994.37Sep-76Oct-76951.95Oct-76Nov-76944.58Nov-76Dec-76976.86Dec-76Jan-77970.62Jan-77Feb-77914.77Feb-77Mar-77946.11Mar-77Apr-77929.1Apr-77May-77926.31May-77Jun-77916.56Jun-77Jul-77908.2Jul-77Aug-77872.26Aug-77Sep-77853.3Sep-77Oct-77823.96Oct-77Nov-77828.51Nov-77Dec-77822.1Dec-77Jan-78781.09Jan-78Feb-78763.57Feb-78Mar-78756.37Mar-78Apr-78794.66Apr-78May-78838.56May-78Jun-78840.26Jun-78Jul-78831.71Jul-78Aug-78887.93Aug-78Sep-78818.64Sep-78Oct-78857.69Oct-78Nov-78804.29Nov-78Dec-78807.94Dec-78Jan-79837.39Jan-79Feb-79825.18Feb-79Mar-79847.84Mar-79Apr-79864.96Apr-79May-79837.4May-79Jun-79838.65Jun-79Jul-79836.95Jul-79Aug-79873.55Aug-79Sep-79878.5Sep-79Oct-79840.39Oct-79Nov-79815.78Nov-79Dec-79836.14Dec-79Jan-80860.74Jan-80Feb-80878.22Feb-80Mar-80803.56Mar-80Apr-80786.33Apr-80May-80828.19May-80Jun-80869.86Jun-80Jul-80909.79Jul-80Aug-80947.33Aug-80Sep-80946.67Sep-80Oct-80949.17Oct-80Nov-80971.08Nov-80Dec-80945.93Dec-80Jan-81962.13Jan-81Feb-81945.5Feb-81Mar-81987.18Mar-81Apr-811004.86Apr-81May-81979.52May-81Jun-81987.18Jun-81Jul-81947.94Jul-81Aug-81926.25Aug-81Sep-81853.38Sep-81Oct-81853.38Oct-81Nov-81860.44Nov-81Dec-81878.28Dec-81Jan-82853.41Jan-82Feb-82833.15Feb-82Mar-82812.33Mar-82Apr-82844.96Apr-82May-82846.72May-82Jun-82804.37Jun-82Jul-82818.41Jul-82Aug-82832.11Aug-82Sep-82917.27Sep-82Oct-82988.71Oct-82Nov-821027.76Nov-82Dec-821033.08Dec-82Jan-831064.29Jan-83Feb-831087.43Feb-83Mar-831129.58Mar-83Apr-831168.43Apr-83May-831212.86May-83Jun-831221.47Jun-83Jul-831213.93Jul-83Aug-831189.21Aug-83Sep-831237.04Sep-83Oct-831252.2Oct-83Nov-831250.01Nov-83Dec-831257.64Dec-83Jan-841258.89Jan-84Feb-841164.46Feb-84Mar-841161.97Mar-84Apr-841152.71Apr-84May-841143.42May-84Jun-841121.14Jun-84Jul-841113.27Jul-84Aug-841212.82Aug-84Sep-841213.51Sep-84Oct-841199.3Oct-84Nov-841211.26Nov-84Dec-841188.98Dec-84Jan-851238.161985Feb-851283.23Feb-85Mar-851268.83Mar-85Apr-851266.36Apr-85May-851279.4May-85Jun-851314Jun-85Jul-851342.97Aug-851326.18Aug-85Sep-851317.95Sep-85Oct-851348.97Oct-85Nov-851432.88Nov-85Dec-851517.02Dec-85Jan-861534.861986Feb-861652.73Feb-86Mar-861757.35Mar-86Apr-861807.05Apr-86May-861801.8May-86Jun-861867.7Jun-86Jul-861809.527Aug-861843.45Aug-86Sep-861813.47Sep-86Oct-861817.04Oct-86Nov-861883.65Nov-86Dec-861724.07Dec-86Jan-872065.131987Feb-872202.87Feb-87Mar-872292.61Mar-87Apr-872302.64Apr-87May-872291.11May-87Jun-872384.02Jun-87Jul-872481.727Aug-872655.01Aug-87Sep-872561.38Sep-87Oct-872224.59Oct-87Nov-871931.86Nov-87Dec-871910.07Dec-87Jan-881947.351988Feb-881980.65Feb-88Mar-882044.31Mar-88Apr-882036.13Apr-88May-881988.91May-88Jun-882104.94Jun-88Jul-882104.227Aug-882051.29Aug-88Sep-882080.06Sep-88Oct-882144.31Oct-88Nov-882098.94Nov-88Dec-882148.58Dec-88Jan-892234.681989Feb-892304.3Feb-89Mar-892283.62Mar-89Apr-892348.91Apr-89May-892439.55May-89Jun-892494.89Jun-89Jul-892554.037Aug-892691.11Aug-89Sep-892693.41Sep-89Oct-892694.05Oct-89Nov-892642.49Nov-89Dec-892728.47Dec-89Jan-902679.24Jan-90Feb-902614.18Feb-90Mar-902700.13Mar-90Apr-902708.26Apr-90May-902793.81May-90Jun-902894.83Jun-90Jul-902934.23Jul-90Aug-902681.89Aug-90Sep-902550.69Sep-90Oct-902460.54Oct-90Nov-902519.52Nov-90Dec-902610.92Dec-90Jan-912587.6Jan-91Feb-912863.04Feb-91Mar-912920.11Mar-91Apr-912925.52Apr-91May-912928.42May-91Jun-912968.14Jun-91Jul-912978.19Jul-91Aug-913006.09Aug-91Sep-913010.35Sep-91Oct-913019.74Oct-91Nov-912986.12Nov-91Dec-912958.64Dec-91Jan-923227.06Jan-92Feb-923257.27Feb-92Mar-923247.42Mar-92Apr-923294.08Apr-92May-923376.79May-92Jun-923337.79Jun-92Jul-923329.41Jul-92Aug-923307.45Aug-92Sep-923293.92Sep-92Oct-923198.7Oct-92Nov-923238.49Nov-92Dec-923303.15Dec-92Jan-933277.7Jan-93Feb-933367.26Feb-93Mar-933440.74Mar-93Apr-933423.63Apr-93May-933478.17May-93Jun-933513.81Jun-93Jul-933529.43Jul-93Aug-933597.01Aug-93Sep-933592.29Sep-93Oct-933625.81Oct-93Nov-933674.7Nov-93Dec-933744.1Dec-93Jan-943868.36Jan-94Feb-943905.62Feb-94Mar-943816.98Mar-94Apr-943661.48Apr-94May-943707.99May-94Jun-943737.58Jun-94Jul-943718.3Jul-94Aug-943797.48Aug-94Sep-943880.6Sep-94Oct-943868.1Oct-94Nov-943792.43Nov-94Dec-943770.31Dec-94Jan-953872.46Jan-95Feb-953953.72Feb-95Mar-954062.78Mar-95Apr-954230.66Apr-95May-954391.57May-95Jun-954510.76Jun-95Jul-954684.76Jul-95Aug-954639.27Aug-95Sep-954746.76Sep-95Oct-954760.46Oct-95Nov-954935.81Nov-95Dec-955136.1Dec-95Jan-965179.37Jan-96Feb-965518.73Feb-96Mar-965612.24Mar-96Apr-965579.86Apr-96May-965616.71May-96Jun-965671.4Jun-96Jul-965496.26Jul-96Aug-965685.5Aug-96Sep-965804.01Sep-96Oct-965996.21Oct-96Nov-966318.36Nov-96Dec-966435.87Dec-96Jan-976707.03Jan-97Feb-976917.48Feb-97Mar-976901.11Mar-97Apr-976657.5Apr-97May-977247.07May-97Jun-977599.6Jun-97Jul-977990.65Jul-97Aug-977948.43Aug-97Sep-977866.59Sep-97Oct-977875.81Oct-97Nov-977677.36Nov-97Dec-977909.82Dec-97Jan-987808.35Jan-98Feb-988323.61Feb-98Mar-988709.47Mar-98Apr-989037.44Apr-98May-989080.07May-98Jun-988872.96Jun-98Jul-989097.14Jul-98Aug-988478.52Aug-98Sep-987909.79Sep-98Oct-988164.47Oct-98Nov-989005.75Nov-98Dec-989018.68Dec-98Jan-999345.86Jan-99Feb-999322.94Feb-99Mar-999753.63Mar-99Apr-9910443.5Apr-99May-9910853.8May-99Jun-9910691.3Jun-99Jul-9911052.2Jul-99Aug-9910935.5Aug-99Sep-9910714Sep-99Oct-9910396.8Oct-99Nov-9910809.8Nov-99Dec-9911246.4Dec-99Jan-0011281.3Jan-00Feb-0010541.9Feb-00Mar-0010483.4Mar-00Apr-0010944.3Apr-00May-0010580.3May-00Jun-0010582.9Jun-00Jul-0010662.9Jul-00Aug-0011014.5Aug-00Sep-0010967.8Sep-00Oct-0010440.9Oct-00Nov-0010666Nov-00Dec-0010652.4Dec-00Jan-0110672.5Jan-01Feb-0110774.6Feb-01Mar-0110081.3Mar-01Apr-0110234.5Apr-01May-0111005May-01Jun-0110767.2Jun-01Jul-0110444.5Jul-01Aug-0110314.7Aug-01Sep-019042.56Sep-01Oct-019220.75Oct-01Nov-019716.73Nov-01Dec-019979.88Dec-01Jan-029923.8Jan-02Feb-029891.05Feb-02Mar-0210456Mar-02

Chart2 (2)1238.161283.231268.831266.361279.413141342.91326.181317.951348.971432.881517.021534.861652.731757.351807.051801.81867.71809.521843.451813.471817.041883.651724.072065.132202.872292.612302.642291.112384.022481.722655.012561.382224.591931.861910.071947.351980.652044.312036.131988.912104.942104.222051.292080.062144.312098.942148.582234.682304.32283.622348.912439.552494.892554.032691.112693.412694.052642.492728.47

Chart2 (3)1534.861652.731757.351807.051801.81867.71809.521843.451813.471817.041883.651724.072065.132202.872292.612302.642291.112384.022481.722655.012561.382224.591931.861910.071947.351980.652044.312036.131988.912104.942104.222051.292080.062144.312098.942148.582234.682304.32283.622348.912439.552494.892554.032691.112693.412694.052642.492728.47

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