美国在全球红肉贸易中的地位和作用

海南

黑龙江

吉林辽宁

河北山东

福建江西

安徽湖北

湖南

广东广西

上海河南

山西

内蒙古

陕西

宁夏

甘肃

青海

四川

贵州云南

西藏

新疆

江苏

浙江

北京

台湾香港 办公室 (1988- )

广洲 顾问处 (1999- )

沈阳 顾问处 (2001-2012)

上海 办公室 (1997- )

北京 办公室 (2007- )

上海肉类学校 (1999-2005)

美国肉类出口协会在中国

Global Pork Production Forecasts 2012-132012-2013 年度全球猪肉产量预测

Country 2011 2012 2013 2012/11 2013/12World 102,015 105,519 106,813 3% 1%China 49,500 52,350 53,800 6% 3%EU-27 22,866 22,630 21,951 -1% -3%U.S. 10,331 10,554 10,669 2% 1%Brazil 3,227 3,330 3,370 3% 1%Russia 2,000 2,075 2,150 4% 4%Vietnam 1,960 2,000 2,025 2% 1%Canada 1,797 1,820 1,795 1% -1%Philippines 1,275 1,382 1,420 8% 3%Japan 1,267 1,297 1,305 2% 1%Mexico 1,202 1,227 1,270 2% 4%S. Korea 837 1,086 1,240 30% 14%Taiwan 865 865 860 0% -1%Chile 528 584 620 11% 6%

Source: USDA/FAS, thous mt

Top Pork Importers 全球主要的猪肉进口国家

China/H

KJa

pan

Russia

Mexico

South

Korea

U.S.

Ukraine

Canad

a

Austra

lia -

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2010201120122013FM

etric

Ton

s

Annual Imports, INCLUDES variety meats年进口量，包括猪副产品

Source: Global Trade Atlas, USMEF estimates

-1%

+1%+4%

+12%-22%

+0%+107% +16%

+11%

2012 percent change is noted

Top Pork Exporters全球主要的猪肉出口国家

U.S. EU-27 Canada Brazil Chile Mexico -

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

2010201120122013FM

etric

Ton

s

Excludes variety meats 不包括猪副产品

Source: Global Trade Atlas, USMEF estimates

+3%+1%

+4%

+13%

+26%+10%

2012 percent change is noted

Global Supply Situation in 2013 will depend on what happens in China and the EU

2013 年全球猪肉供应形势将取决于中国和欧盟

China’s Production +1

Million MT中国猪肉产量增加 100 万吨

EU’s Production -

700,000 MT欧盟猪肉产量减少 700,000 吨

EU Prices Steady But Will They Move Higher H2, 2013?目前欧盟生猪价格稳定，但不知道 2013 年下半年是否会上涨？

Hog Prices in the Top Producing Countries全球主要猪肉生产国的生猪价格

2008

Jan

2008

May

2008

Sep

2009

Jan

2009

May

2009

Sep

2010

Jan

2010

May

2010

Sep

2011

Jan

2011

May

2011

Sep

t

2012

Jan

2012

May

2012

Sep

t

2013

Jan

$20.00

$40.00

$60.00

$80.00

$100.00

$120.00

$140.00

ChinaEUU.S.

Source: USDA, European Commission, MOA and USMEF estimates

US$/lb Live Hog Price

Other Global Demand Influences其它影响全球猪肉需求的因素• Rebound in Korea production & lower imports• 韩国：猪肉产量反弹，进口量下降• Japan Yen depreciation, customs issues, and TPP• 日本 : 日元贬值，关税问题和跨太平洋伙伴关系协议• Russia: elimination of country-specific TRQs and in-quota duty

upon WTO accession; increasing domestic production, and beta agonist policies.

• 俄罗斯：入世后的取消特定国家关税配额和配额内关税问题；国内产量提高，和 β 类兴奋剂政策。• Stabilization and slight expansion in the Canadian pig herd,

weaker C$ and steady exports. • 加拿大：生猪存栏量稳中有小幅增长，疲软的加元和稳定的出口。• Mexico: increasing pork consumption facilitated by lower cost

imports. • 墨西哥：进口成本降低促进猪肉消费量的增长。

US Dollar Higher with Major Competitor Currencies美元对其它主要竞争对手货币坚挺

U.S. Pork & Variety Meat Exports to Top Markets美国猪肉和猪副产品的主要出口市场

Mexico

Japa

n

China/H

K

Canad

aKore

a

C/S A

mer.

Aus/N

Z

ASEAN

Russia

Taiwan

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

201120122013F

Metric Tons

Source: USDA/FAS, USMEF preliminary forecasts spring 2013

U.S. Pork Production Still Growing美国猪肉产量仍在增长

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

2,400

2,500

2,600

2,700

2,800

2,900

3,000

2010201120122013F

Source: USDA/FAS; thous MT, carcass weight equivalent, April 2013 WASDE Report

2009: -1.5% 2010: -2.5%, 10.18 MMT 2011: +1.4%, 10.32 MMT 2012: +2% 10.55 MMT 2013F: +1% 10.66 MMT

-1.3%

+1%+1.2%

+3.3%

Futures Prices Have Partially Rebounded, Expect Seasonal Increase 生猪期货价格有部分反弹，期待季节性上涨

Feb Apr May June Jul Aug Oct Dec60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

CME Live Hog Futures Closing Prices

5-Feb15-Feb28-Feb5-Apr1-May

$/cwt

5-Jan

29-Ja

n

22-F

eb

18-M

ar

11-A

pr

5-May

29-M

ay

22-Ju

n16

-Jul

9-Aug2-S

ep

26-S

ep

20-O

ct

13-N

ov7-D

ec$60.00

$70.00

$80.00

$90.00

$100.00

$110.00

$120.00

4 Yr Avg201120122013Mandatory

Weekly U.S. Lean Hog Cutout Values美国瘦肉型生猪分切肉周价

Source: USDA/AMS

$/lb 2012 cutout values averaged 9.7% less than 2011 as strong exports did not offset larger production and weaker domestic demand; expect trend toward 2011 for 2013 。 2012 年分切肉平均价格比 2011 年下降 9.7% ，强劲的出口未能抵消增长的产量和美国国内的需求疲软； 2013 年的价格趋势预计类似 2011 年。

But Average Hog Sold Losing Money但平均每头猪的销售利润仍为负数

Source: CME Daily Livestock Report, Feb 5, 2013

U.S. Pork Production Efficiency Still Growing美国猪肉生产产能还在提高

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

750

950

1,150

1,350

1,550

1,750

1,950

Kg pork 猪肉 /sow 母猪 /year 每年

Source: USDA/FAS, carcass wt.

U.S. Hog Inventories美国生猪存栏

6 states account for 71% of total 6 个州的存栏量占总存栏量的 71%

U.S. Corn Production: A Better 2013?2013 年美国玉米产量是否会增长 ?

2000

/2001

2001

/2002

2002

/2003

2003

/2004

2004

/2005

2005

/2006

2006

/2007

2007

/2008

2008

/2009

2009

/2010

2010

/2011

2011

/2012

2012

/20130

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

ProductionFeedFSIExportsEnding Stocks

Source: USDA/FAS PS&D

U.S. production 13% less than 2011/12 and smallest crop since 2006/07 with lowest yield and ending stocks since 1995/96. Exports -50%. 2012/13 年度美国玉米产量比 2011/12 年度减少 13% ，是 2006/07 年度以来产量最低， 1995/96 年度以来库存最少的年度。出口量减少50% 。

Thous MT Thous MT Ending Stocks

U.S. Cash Corn Prices美国玉米现金价格

Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

2009/102010/112011/122012/132013/14

$/bushel

Source: USDA/ERS, Omaha NE average

CBOT Futures Contracts are trading under $7/bushel

Futures

About RMB 1,455/ton

US Pork Industry Issues美国猪肉产业所面对的问题• Feed costs 饲料价格

– Example: renewable fuel standard 如：可再生燃料的标准• Animal welfare 动物福利

– Example: Sow gestation crates 如：母猪的妊娠箱• Antibiotics/beta agonists 抗生素 /β 类兴奋

– Example: FDA guidelines on antibiotic usage 如： FDA 对抗生素使用的指导标准• Environmental protection & sustainability 环境保护和可持续发展性

– Example: Air emissions 如：空气污染物排放• International market access 国际市场准入

– Example: Beta agonist bans 如：禁止使用 β 类兴奋剂

Growing U.S. Pork Exports……. 增长的美国猪肉出口

Source: USDA/FAS Fall 2012 PS&D, thousand mt carcass wt

Exports （出口量）Production & Consumption （产量和需求量）

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

8,000

8,500

9,000

9,500

10,000

10,500

11,000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

ProductionU.S. ConsumptionExports

Production growth rate of about +2% per year, with ex-ports averaging +13% per year! （ past 10 years 2004-2013F)( 过去 10 年内 2004-2013 年 ) 生产量年增长率为 2% ，出口量年均增长率为 13% ！

…As U.S. Meat Consumption Falls美国国内肉类需求量下降

Source: USDA/FAS PS&D Spring 2012, carcass wt equivalent w/ Aug WASDE forecast

U.S. combined red meat & poultry consumption in 2013 is expected to be 11 kg less than in 2007.美国 2013 年的畜禽肉人均需求量预计将比 2007 年少11 公斤。

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

F20

13F

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

Poultry&TurkeyBeefPork

Kg/capita

U.S. Longer Term Pork Exports To Increase长期来看，美国的猪肉出口量将会增长

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

U.S.EU-27CanadaBrazilChinaChileMexico

Source: OECD/FAO Ag Outlook 2011; thousand MT carcass weight equivalent

Global exports account for a relatively steady 6% of global consumption; excluding Chinese consumption exports account for 11-12% of consumption. 全球猪肉出口量稳定的占全球猪肉消费量的 6% ，其中中国出口量占消费量的 11-12% 。

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

PorkPoultryBeef

China & World Meat Consumption Scenarios中国和全球的肉类需求量

Source: OECD/FAO Agricultural Outlook July 2012, beef & pork in carcass wt equivalent, poultry in rtc

Thou

sand

Met

ric T

ons

Growth from 2012 to 2021F Poultry: +22% Pork: +13% Beef: +16%

FOCUS ON THE BLUE LINES

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

PoultryPorkBeef

World Meat Consumption Less China全球肉类需求量减去中国

Source: OECD/FAO Agricultural Outlook July 2012, beef & pork in carcass wt equivalent, poultry in rtc

Thou

sand

Met

ric T

ons

Growth from 2012 to 2021F Poultry: +20% Pork: +11% Beef: +16%

FOCUS ON THE BLUE LINES

China: Price Changes Correlate with Import Volumes中国生猪价格的变化与猪肉进口量的关系

China’s Influence on U.S. Hog Prices中国对美国生猪价格的影响

$35

$40

$45

$50

$55

$60

$65

$70

$75

$80

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2009

Jan

2009

Mar

2009

…20

09 Ju

l20

09 S

ep20

09 N

ov20

10 Ja

n20

10 M

ar20

10…

2010

Jul

2010

Sep

2010

Nov

2011

Jan

2011

Mar

2011

…20

11 Ju

l20

11…

2011

Nov

2012

Jan

2012

Mar

2012

…20

12 Ju

ly

Exports to China MTU.S. Hog price $/cwt

Source: USDA and USMEF

Correlation between U.S. hog prices and U.S. exports to China is 0.726! 美国生猪价格与美国对中国猪肉出口量的比较值为 0.726 ！Metric Tons $/cwt Hog Price

In 2012, US pork exports to China accounted for approximately 4% of US

total production2012 年美国对中国的猪肉出口量占美国猪肉总产量的 4%

Pork Price Volatility in 20122012 年各国猪肉价格的波动

$/pound

Japan Korea Russia Mexico China EU US$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00 2.75

1.94

1.46 1.35 1.24 1.13 0.91

2.01

1.23 1.14 1.05 0.97 0.87 0.71

HighLow

Prices vary but are mostly carcass basis, except Russia & China are live hog basis

Domestic prices were still volatile in 2012, as global supplies recovered, but with less dramatic swings to those in 2011. 2012 年各国国内猪价仍有波动，但随着全球猪肉供应量的恢复，波动幅度低于 2011年。

Conclusions and Goals增强市场稳定性和安全性• As exporters we strive for: 作为出口国我们力争做到：• Transparency of market information; 市场信息透明• Risk-based food safety and animal disease policies; 建立在风险评估基础上的食品安全政策和动物疫病政策• Stable import policies & procedures; 稳定的进口政策和步骤 • Government-to-government cooperation and trust ； 政府对政府的合作与信任• Industry-to-industry dialogue and exchange 产业对产业的对话与交流