남북러가스관 사업 토론회 자료집

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남북관계 남북관계 남북관계 남북관계 새로운 새로운 새로운 새로운 구상을 구상을 구상을 구상을 위한 위한 위한 위한 토론회 토론회 토론회 토론회 한반도 한반도 한반도 한반도 비핵화와 비핵화와 비핵화와 비핵화와 에너지 에너지 에너지 에너지 대안 대안 대안 대안 일시 : 2012년 9월 20일(목) 오후 2시~5시 장소 : 국회의원회관 신관 524호실 주최 : 국회한반도평화포럼, 시민평화포럼, 한국가스공사 노조, 환경운동연합, 프레시안

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남북러가스관 사업 토론회 자료집.

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  • : 2012 9 20() 2~5 : 524 : , , , ,

  • 2- - - - ----

    - :

    _ ( )

    _

    1. _

    2. _

    _ CIS _ _ _ _

  • 3- - - - ----

    _ ( )...................... 4

    _ ...................... 5

    1. _

    ...................... 6 2. _

    ................... 22

    _ CIS ................... 42 _ ................... 46 _ ................... 50 _ ................... 53

  • 4

  • 5 ( )

    .10 , 5. , , , . , .

    . . . 12 , . , 8 2 < > .

    , . , . ., 5.24 . , 3 , ..

  • 6( ). 137 30 .

    1 . 1.

    100% . 2050 80%. 2011 7575GW 90GW . 100% . ,

    , . , .

    .

    . .

  • 7[[[[ 1]1]1]1]: : : : 1)1)1)1)

    ( ) 1. 1. 1. 1. 2000 . , . , (peak oil) , , . : , , . 3.11 . ,

    . (1) (2) (CCS, ) --> , . (PNG) . PNG LNG (gassification) . PNG , . PNG , , , . PNG /1) . .

  • 8. PNG , , , . , , , (UGSS, Unified Gas Supply System) . PNG , , , , LNG PNG . PNG , (upgrade) . . , (1) , (2) . PNG , PNG.

    2. 2. 2. 2. (1) : : , . (1) (2) . (): , , . (1) 4 () . 1) 60 : 2) 70-80 : , NOC . 3) 90 -2000 : , , , , OPEC . 4) 20002010 : .

  • 9 OPEC . , . , . 90 OPEC , OPEC . 2000, . , , () . : 2011 IPCC SRREN(Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation) . , , , , , 6 , . . . (1) , (2) . : . . / , , . , . (1) (2) ( + + + ) -->. , .(2) : , , . (conventional) ,

  • 10

    1 36.10 3.032 24.41 7.723 21.92 0.384 19.28 0.345 13.73 -6 11.21 3.117 10.99 1.768 8.21 1.559 6.54 4.5010 6.40 0.3711 5.30 0.1612 5.10 0.01

    . 2008((GECF, Gas Exporting Countries Forum) . . : 2000(unconventional gas), (shale gas) . . LNG , LNG . . , . : , , , , , 60 . , .

    . < > ( : )

    < > EIA(2011) . :

    .(Gazprom, GDF, ENI, ) (1)

  • 11

    , ( , , ) (2) , EU , . : , , . (1) , , , . , . (2) , , , . , . 90. (3) : , (IEA) (the golden age of natural gas), 2012 5 (Golden Rules for a Golden Age of Gas) . ,

    . PNG LNG . (?) , , ,

    . --> . PNG , LNG , (basic

  • 12

    load) PNG .3. 3. 3. 3. (1) PNG PNG, . (1) (2) / . ( ): PNG, . (1) ( PNG), (LNG) , . (2)

    , . (3) , , . PNG ,

    . ( ): () , . () LNG .

    . PNG. ( - ): PNG( , ). LNG. . PNG .

    . .

  • 13

    ( - ): PNG , . (1) . 10 bcm . . (2) , . PNG , (country risk).

    (2) PNG : , , : (1) -(Yukos) CNPC . 1995 60% (Aktobemunaigaz) , (Angarsk) , () . 1998(). 2001 72,260 km 17.(2005 40 -60 ) (2) - 2001 7 (Transneft)(Nakhodka) . 4,000 km , 50 . 100 , , . (3) - , 2002 , 2003

    . 2003 3 - , .

  • 14

    - -() 4,000km 1,700km, 2,260km 52 25 2008 2005 100b/d(5000t/y) 40b/d(2000t)->60b/d(3000t/d) ( ) , 2001 1998, , CNPC

    , ( );

    () () ,

    ,

    (90%->70%)

    ESPO: (ESPO, The Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean oil pipeline) . - (ESPO)80 , 4770 km . ESPO-1 (- , 2757km) 2006 4 2009 12 . ESPO-2 ( - , 1963km) 2014. 2011 ESPO 15 . UGSS: (UGSS) . (1) PNG ( )- 450 km, 4,100 km , ( 2000 30 ). 96 98 7 . , , 32000 . , , 32002 10 () . - - - - - - 3,600 km. -- - - - 567 km---- - - - 536 km-- .

  • 15

    , . (2) UGSS: , PNG , 2005 PNG, UGSS . - . 2013-2016, (UGSS) . . Skovorodino, Blagovesh-chensk Dalnerechensk , (subsea)- - . LNG .

    < UGSS (2008)>

    PNG: . . 1990 . 2004CNPC , 3,900 Km 12.4 Bcm. 2004 25,870 Km. .

  • 16

    (3) UGSS + . , . -(ESPO, UGSS). , . . , . PNG . , , , , , . . 2011 , MOU/

  • 17

    . PNG LNG . PNG , , LNG, CNG . (4) PNG . , PNG . (1) - , PNG .

    . , . (2) LNG: PNG LNG . . LNG , , LNG . (3) : PNG . ---- . , -, . 3 -- , , --, . , . PNG , , PNG. LNG,

  • 18

    . PNG. (1) . . (2) PNG. PNG. (3) PNG , . PNG, . 4. 4. 4. 4. : : : : 2011 1 38.5%, (LNG) 17.5%, (, ) 28.8%, 12.2%, 2.9% . , . 30.9%, 38.8%, LNG 21.8%, 4.8% , , . (CCS). . , (R&D, ), (back end cost, / , , ) , ( ) . 1 (32.7%), (11%) . CNG , LNG .

  • 19

    5. 5. 5. 5. : : : : PNG. , , , . , . , , (1) , , (2) , . ,

    . . . , (needs) . , . , , , , , , , . , , , . . . , , , , . , .

  • 20

    . , , , , , . , , , . , (ODA), , , , . .

    < >

    ,

    - - - - -: , , -: , , (ODA), , -: , , -: , - - - - -

  • 21

    6. 6. 6. 6. : : : : PNG , , , . , , , 4, . , , . , . . (bandwagon) , , , , 4 , 6 . 6 , , , , , 5 . , (take-off). . 6 . . , , . , , . , , , . . .

  • 22

    < >

    - -

    (, , , )

    () (, , ) ()()

    ()

    (, , )

    ()

    ()

  • 23

    [[[[ 2]2]2]2]

    ( )1. 1. 1. 1. : : : :

    1) (nexus) a.

    / / / // / . .

    . 19 . . .

    . 3 . .( ) (dislocatins) . . 90 , ,

  • 24

    . ' '. 10

    . the rise of the rest', 'post American world', 'second world' . .1) , (interregionalism). , (security dilemma)(insecurity dilemma) . , . ( ) .

    . (relative gains) (absolute gains) (interest)

    . b. :

    . 1) Bjrn Hettne, 2010, Development and Security: Origins and Future," Security Dialogue, vol. 41, no.2, pp. 35-50

  • 25

    , .2) .3)

    ?, (spill over) .

    , ( )( ) . , .4)

    . c.

    2) Katherine Barbieri & Gerald Schneider, Globalization and Peace: Assessing New Directions in the Study of Trade and Conflict, Journal of Peace Research, vol. 36, no. 4 (1999), p. 390.3) , , p. 141.4) , , pp. 71~72.

  • 26

    . . . PNG LNG . .

    (insecurity) . . (impossible trinity) . ( ) 3.

    . , , . . (recognition) .

    2) (cross-border cooperation) : (region-building) (intrusive regionalism). (sub-regionalism or micro- regionalism)))) . . (micro regions). . . (growth polygons;

  • 27

    growth triangle)5) (development corridors) , . (regionness), (cohesion) (actorness)6).

    . , -, , 7) . ( (pilot project) .) - 8).9) . . (Acharya)(integrative regionalism) , (intrusive regionalism) .

    . . . , , .10)

    5) (GMS) . Ramgopal Agarwala and Brahm Prakash, Regional Cooperation in Asia, ERD Working Paper no. 28 (2002), pp. 2~5 .6) Bjrn Hettne, Beyond The New Regionalism, New Political Economy, vol. 10, no. 4 (2005), pp. 557~558.7) (micro-regionalism) . , : , 5 2 (2001)8) -- , , . , , 27 2 (2006), p. 324.9) , 2008, ,12 1, pp.162-16610), 2010, ,28 3, pp.113-115

  • 28

    . .11) , , , (sea lane) , . 21

    . 3)

    . . 2002 2 . . ,

    . (regionness).

    11) Nodari Simonia and Victor Sumsky, 2012, "As an APEC Summit Nears, So Does a Moment of Truth For Putin and Russia in Asia," Globa Globa Globa Globa Asia, Asia, Asia, Asia, vol.7. no.2

  • 29

    2. 2. 2. 2. 1)

    1994 10 . , . (NSA, negative security assurance) ,

    . ( 2006) . .

    . , . , 30 10, . .

    ( ) ( )

    ( ) (NSA) (KEDO)

    : : : : 3333 1) ( ) , (NSA) () 2) ( ), ( ) 3) (KEDO)

  • 30

    , , . , . 94,12) . (appeasement) .13) 2) 2) 2) 2) 6666 9.19 9.19 9.19 9.19

    9.19 . . 9.19 6 (sequencing) , . .

    .

    12) NPT . , . 13) . (Carl Ford), , .(V.Gilinsky) ( 1999, 9)

  • 31

    66661. - NPT IAEA - - 2. - - 3. , , - 5 - 4. - - 65. , 6. 11 5 6

    4

    2 6 (223~28) 3 6(6 23~26) 4 6 1

    HEU

    HEU EU

    CVID,

    5MW/,

    CVID

    vs

    ,

    6

    -

    ,

    200KW

    ?

    2222 , , , , 3333 4444 6666 (1(1(1(1 ) ) ) )

    2 4 6 . 6.

  • 32

    1 . 4 1 . 1. , . (existing nuclear programs) . . .( KEDO ) , . . (at an early date) NPT IAEA , (at an appropriate time) , . NPT ( ) , , NPT , .

    , 6( ) .( 9 20 ) ., 1(KEDO ) .

    . , .

  • 33

    2 . 1 . 1) 2) 3) 4) , 5)

    . , . . co-existenece peacefully exist peacefully together

    . . 3 . , . , , , , . 3 6.

    . . . , .

    .

  • 34

    . 4 . . . 4 3. 10.4 3 4.

    . .

    . 6 . 6. 2.13 .

    . 5 . , .

    .1-4 52.13 . 2.13 9.19 .

  • 35

    * 2.13

    12.13 9.19 . 3) 2009 2

    . 2009 6 2. . 2010 1 . . .

  • 36

    , , 3 6. . , . .

    . . . ,

  • 37

    (tethering) . 6 , . 5) 2.29 2.13

    2.29 9.19 2.13 . , 6 2008 12 . . .

    3. 3. 3. 3. 2012 2012 2012 2012 : : : : ----1)

    .

  • 38

    . 9.19 . . . . .

    .( 9 1 ). 2010 .

    . () .

  • 39

    expanding (proliferation). (modernization) . 2013. 2) 14)

    , . . , , . ., . NPT , . . . ( , ) NPT ., . NPT IAEA, IAEA . , . , ,

    14) , 2012,

  • 40

    . . 3, , -, - - , , . , . 2011 10 13- (55km) 12 . ( : M. ) .3)

    . .

    , .

    (initiation) . , , . .

    2 . 4) 15)

    15) , 2012,

  • 41

    . . , . , . . -.

    ( 2003, 173-175). , . , ( 2010, 138-147). (peace regime) (peace structure)( 2008). .

    5) . . , , , (hedging) . . .

    . , +@

  • 42

    . . -

    . . ,

    .

  • 43

    [[[[ 1]1]1]1]

    ( CIS )

    . 30% . : . , , . . 5 . . 2005 9.19. 7 . . . 2011 8 -. 2012 4 17 . . . 9 6 3 . (APEC) . . 8 12 1 2 . . . . , 3 MOU. . . . .

  • 44

    9 12 . . . , , . . . . . 9 6 3 . . , . ,

    . . . , 1Go . , . , . . . 2003. , 2 . . . . , . . . , .

  • 45

    . . . . . . . . .

    . . . . . APEC . 6000 (24 ) 3000 (12 ) -- . . ,. . APEC ,. . . . - - . . . 4 3 . . . . , .

  • 46

    . .

  • 47

    [[[[ 2]2]2]2] ( )

    , , , .

    1.1.1.1. , , . 19 , , , 20. , Right of Way (R.O.W). 20m , , 1 2-3km Spread . -Spread : () (Grading)-(stringing & bending)- (trenching)- (girth-welding)- (inspection)-()(coating & Wrapping)-(Lowering-in)- (backfilling)- , (crossing & tie-ins)- (hydralic-test), (cleaning) - , . , , . ,

  • 48

    2. 2. 2. 2. 1) 90% , 618m 3.4 . , . 742m 200m 78% . 447km. 92% . , , , . - , . - , ,

    . 2) , , , . - , , , . < 1>

    :

  • 49

    - - , - - -- - - 1 - 1 , - 2. - 1, 1 2 . 1 6km 2 , 1 26km . 1 318km, - 503km, - 903km 1. 3) - 2001 7. - 2001 8 4 () : ,

    - 8 : 2001 93 . 2001 , 2002 , 2003 -. - : 2001 , - - 2008 4 . 2,80070%, 30% . 2008 8- , 49 .

  • 50

    - - 52km -, , , . - 2008 10 . 9

    3. 3. 3. 3. . - -. 25m . , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . - 50, 57 , . - 34, (42 ) . . . , , , , , . - -, ,

  • 51

    [[[[ 3] 3] 3] 3] ( )

    1. , . 2. PNG . 2011 9 . 2012 4 9, 2017 1 . 2012 9 8 . . PNG 10bcm(100, 750 ) . 2012 1 LNG 2017 350 , LNG canada 20% 600 . 1/4 , PNG. .

    . 2009 -17. - , , - . . - . , 2011 8 24 , "

    " . 3 .

  • 52

    2011 9 15(MOU) . . PNG , , PNG LNG, .3. , . , , . . PNG , 4 . PNG6 . . 4. . . , , , .

    . , . . -

  • 53

    - . . 4. . .

    . 9.19, . , . . .

    5. . . . . , 2040 , . , . . .

    16) . . 16) () 6 . 3+3 : , , , , . : . : . : . , :

  • 54

    [[[[ 4]4]4]4]

    ( )1. 1. 1. 1. 5 1 (2008~2030)2 5 (2010~2024)

    . (17% ->20%) ( ). 60%( () ) . 40% 1 40%, , , , . 1980 (80 63.3%)()80 9 ( 29.7% , 6.5% , 15% ). , , 1 2. , 200023~25%. . 30%

    . .

    .

  • 55

    . . . , 8. 2008 , 140 . . 4 7 13.1% 10.7% 4.9% . 65% 30%. . . . 915 . 6 21548 kw .

    2. 2. 2. 2. . 1980 48%

    , . .

  • 56

    [ 1] 2011 2 * : . , . 11 ~ , 5 ~6 , 2~5 . ,

    . . . . . . , 1 6 ., . (IEA) .

    .

  • 57

    [ 1] CO2 * Tracking Industrial Energy Efficiency and CO2 Emission, IEA, 2007

    3. 3. 3. 3. .

    . 5 . 2024 10%. 48.5%79.5% . .

    [ 2] 5 * : 5(2008~2022)

  • 58

    . . , . 100%

    . . .

    [ 3] * : , , 2009. 12

    .

    4. 4. 4. 4. . . . .

    . . . , .

  • 59

    [ 2] * : . , . .

    5. 5. 5. 5. . . . . , , .

    . . ( )

    . 4 (2012~2016), (255 , 2008.12.22)

  • 60

    (255 ) . '(PRIDE, 10t )' 2028( ' -1(STELLA-1)) . ( , , , : ) 2. 13,246 MtU(2008.12 ) , 1010,000MtU 1%. , .

    >1. 1. 1. 1. (((( : : : : kg/TOE)kg/TOE)kg/TOE)kg/TOE)

    SO2 NOX CO HCLNG 0.010 2.346 0.105 0.670 0.586

    81.283 7.059 5.187 0.642 0.165 6.096 7.059 0.755 0.642 0.165

    * : ' (2002.12)',

    2. 2. 2. 2. (*(*(*(* : : : : IPCC)IPCC)IPCC)IPCC)LNG 1TOE * 0.637*44/12=2.336 tCO21TOE * 0.875*44/12=3.028 tCO21TOE * 1.059*44/12=3.88 tCO2