人工市場を用いた 金融市場の制度・規制の設計

55
人工市場を用いた 金融市場の制度・規制の設計 スパークス・アセット・マネジメント株式会社 水田孝信 mizutata[at]gmail.com @takanobu_mizuta (twitter) 本発表資料はスパークス・アセット・マネジメント株式会社の公式見解を表すものではありません. すべては個人的見解であります. 1 この資料は以下のサイトで閲覧、ダウンロードできます: 1 Slide Share .pdf 金融レジリエンス情報学 第1回(2017/4/6) http://www.slideshare.net/mizutata/20170406x http://www.mizutatakanobu.com/20170406x.pdf http://www.mizutatakanobu.com/

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  • mizutata[at]gmail.com

    @takanobu_mizuta (twitter)

    1

    :

    1 Slide Share

    .pdf

    12017/4/6

    http://www.slideshare.net/mizutata/20170406x

    http://www.mizutatakanobu.com/20170406x.pdf

    http://www.mizutatakanobu.com/

    http://www.slideshare.net/mizutata/20170406xhttp://www.mizutatakanobu.com/20170406x.pdfhttp://www.mizutatakanobu.com/

  • 2 2

    2000 2002 2004 2005

    2006 2010

    2008 2011 20149 2007 2009

  • 3

    2016/10/29 26Web

    Slide Share .pdf

    http://www.slideshare.net/mizutata/20161029x

    http://www.mizutatakanobu.com/20161029x.pdf

    2016/7/13

    Slide Share .pdf

    http://www.slideshare.net/mizutata/20160713

    http://www.mizutatakanobu.com/20160713.pdf

    URL

    2017/2/28 182017 AI()

    2016/10/5

    Slide Share .pdf

    http://www.slideshare.net/mizutata/20161005x

    http://www.mizutatakanobu.com/20161005x.pdf

    http://blogs.yahoo.co.jp/mizuta_ta/28581614.html

    http://www.slideshare.net/mizutata/20161029xhttp://www.mizutatakanobu.com/20161029x.pdfhttp://www.slideshare.net/mizutata/20160713http://www.mizutatakanobu.com/20160713.pdfhttp://www.slideshare.net/mizutata/20161005xhttp://www.mizutatakanobu.com/20161005x.pdfhttp://blogs.yahoo.co.jp/mizuta_ta/28581614.html

  • 4

    4

  • 5

    5

  • 6

    The White House, Office of the Press Secretary, Executive Order 13563 -- Improving Regulation and Regulatory Review January 18, 2011.

    https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/01/18/executive-order-13563-improving-regulation-and-regulatory-review

    ERM2016.03 http://www2.deloitte.com/jp/ja/pages/financial-services/articles/ins/ins-regulator.html?Id=jp:2sm:3tw:4dcom_share:5awa:6dcom:financial_services

    Our regulatory system must protect public health, welfare, safety, and our environment while promoting economic growth, innovation, competitiveness, and job creation . . . It must identify and use the best, most innovative, and least burdensome tools for achieving regulatory ends.

    BARACK OBAMA

    Our regulatory system must protect public health, welfare, safety, and our environment while promoting economic growth, innovation, competitiveness, and job creation . . . It must identify and use the best, most innovative, and least burdensome tools for achieving regulatory ends.

    BARACK OBAMA

    https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/01/18/executive-order-13563-improving-regulation-and-regulatory-reviewhttps://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/01/18/executive-order-13563-improving-regulation-and-regulatory-reviewhttps://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/01/18/executive-order-13563-improving-regulation-and-regulatory-reviewhttps://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/01/18/executive-order-13563-improving-regulation-and-regulatory-reviewhttps://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/01/18/executive-order-13563-improving-regulation-and-regulatory-reviewhttps://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/01/18/executive-order-13563-improving-regulation-and-regulatory-reviewhttps://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/01/18/executive-order-13563-improving-regulation-and-regulatory-reviewhttps://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/01/18/executive-order-13563-improving-regulation-and-regulatory-reviewhttps://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/01/18/executive-order-13563-improving-regulation-and-regulatory-reviewhttps://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/01/18/executive-order-13563-improving-regulation-and-regulatory-reviewhttps://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/01/18/executive-order-13563-improving-regulation-and-regulatory-reviewhttps://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/01/18/executive-order-13563-improving-regulation-and-regulatory-reviewhttps://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/01/18/executive-order-13563-improving-regulation-and-regulatory-reviewhttps://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/01/18/executive-order-13563-improving-regulation-and-regulatory-reviewhttps://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/01/18/executive-order-13563-improving-regulation-and-regulatory-reviewhttps://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/01/18/executive-order-13563-improving-regulation-and-regulatory-reviewhttps://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/01/18/executive-order-13563-improving-regulation-and-regulatory-reviewhttps://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/01/18/executive-order-13563-improving-regulation-and-regulatory-reviewhttps://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/01/18/executive-order-13563-improving-regulation-and-regulatory-reviewhttps://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/01/18/executive-order-13563-improving-regulation-and-regulatory-reviewhttp://www2.deloitte.com/jp/ja/pages/financial-services/articles/ins/ins-regulator.html?Id=jp:2sm:3tw:4dcom_share:5awa:6dcom:financial_serviceshttp://www2.deloitte.com/jp/ja/pages/financial-services/articles/ins/ins-regulator.html?Id=jp:2sm:3tw:4dcom_share:5awa:6dcom:financial_serviceshttp://www2.deloitte.com/jp/ja/pages/financial-services/articles/ins/ins-regulator.html?Id=jp:2sm:3tw:4dcom_share:5awa:6dcom:financial_serviceshttp://www2.deloitte.com/jp/ja/pages/financial-services/articles/ins/ins-regulator.html?Id=jp:2sm:3tw:4dcom_share:5awa:6dcom:financial_serviceshttp://www2.deloitte.com/jp/ja/pages/financial-services/articles/ins/ins-regulator.html?Id=jp:2sm:3tw:4dcom_share:5awa:6dcom:financial_serviceshttp://www2.deloitte.com/jp/ja/pages/financial-services/articles/ins/ins-regulator.html?Id=jp:2sm:3tw:4dcom_share:5awa:6dcom:financial_serviceshttp://www2.deloitte.com/jp/ja/pages/financial-services/articles/ins/ins-regulator.html?Id=jp:2sm:3tw:4dcom_share:5awa:6dcom:financial_serviceshttp://www2.deloitte.com/jp/ja/pages/financial-services/articles/ins/ins-regulator.html?Id=jp:2sm:3tw:4dcom_share:5awa:6dcom:financial_services

  • John McMillan (2002, 2007)

    7

  • 8

    , 2007/3/29 http://www.nttpub.co.jp/search/books/detail/100001751

    http://www.nttpub.co.jp/search/books/detail/100001751http://www.nttpub.co.jp/search/books/detail/100001751http://www.nttpub.co.jp/search/books/detail/100001751

  • 9

  • 10

  • (1/2)

    11

  • 12

    (heterogeneous)

    (2/2)

  • 13

  • 14

  • etc

    etc

    15

  • 1/2

    16

    Positive Feedback

  • 2/2

    GSE

    MBS

    =ABS-CDO

    WaMuJP

    BAC

    + 20089

    B/S ()

    I

    BAC MUFJ

    AIG

    II

    I =ABCP(SIV)

    II =

    =CDS

    ()

    JP

    , (2008)

    17

  • *

    18

  • 19

  • Multi Agent Model Agentheterogeneous

    Agent Based Model Agenthomogeneous

    Artificial Market Model: Agent Based Model

    Agent Based Model, Multi-Agent Model, Artificial Market Model

    20

  • SCIENCE

    Battiston et al. (2016) Complexity theory and financial regulation-Economic policy needs interdisciplinary network analysis and behavioral modeling-, Science 19 Feb 2016, Vol. 351, Issue 6275, pp. 818-819. http://science.sciencemag.org/content/351/6275/818

    21

    http://science.sciencemag.org/content/351/6275/818http://science.sciencemag.org/content/351/6275/818

  • 22

    DSGEDSGE

    EU

    Integrated Macro-Financial Modelling for Robust Policy Design Work Package 7: Bridging agent-based and dynamic-stochastic-general-equilibrium modelling approaches for building policy-focused macro financial models http://www.macfinrobods.eu/research/workpackages/WP7/wp7.html

    22

    http://www.macfinrobods.eu/research/workpackages/WP7/wp7.htmlhttp://www.macfinrobods.eu/research/workpackages/WP7/wp7.htmlhttp://www.macfinrobods.eu/research/workpackages/WP7/wp7.html

  • Braun-Munzinger et. al. Staff working paper no. 592 an agent-based model of dynamics in corporate bond trading http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Pages/workingpapers/2016/swp592.aspx

    23

    http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Pages/workingpapers/2016/swp592.aspxhttp://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Pages/workingpapers/2016/swp592.aspx

  • 24

    24

    Toshiyuki Sakiyama and Tetsuya Yamada Market Liquidity and Systemic Risk in Government Bond Markets: A Network Analysis and Agent-Based Model Approach http://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/abstracts/english/16-E-13.html () https://www.boj.or.jp/research/wps_rev/lab/lab16j09.htm/

    JPX

    http://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/abstracts/english/16-E-13.htmlhttp://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/abstracts/english/16-E-13.htmlhttp://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/abstracts/english/16-E-13.htmlhttp://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/abstracts/english/16-E-13.htmlhttp://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/abstracts/english/16-E-13.htmlhttp://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/abstracts/english/16-E-13.htmlhttps://www.boj.or.jp/research/wps_rev/lab/lab16j09.htm/https://www.boj.or.jp/research/wps_rev/lab/lab16j09.htm/

  • 25 25

    Chiarella et. al. 2002 Chiarella et. al. 2002 25

  • (1)

    (2)

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    26

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    10 10330 102

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    98 1509796 70

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    27

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  • 31

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    31

  • 32

    https://www.fidessa.com/jp/newsletter/issue009/issue009

    PTS SBIChi-XInstinet- PTS

    PTS

    ToSTNet

    32

    https://www.fidessa.com/jp/newsletter/issue009/issue009https://www.fidessa.com/jp/newsletter/issue009/issue009

  • 33 33 33 33

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    33

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    34

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  • 36

    20112012

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    2013/3/29 JPX

    2014/7/22 10(0.1)

    2015/9/24

    36

  • http://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/research-study/

    working-paper/tvdivq0000008q5y-att/

    JPXWorking_Paper_20121210.pdf

    http://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/investor-relations/ir-library/annual-reports/index.html

    37

    http://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/research-study/http://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/research-study/working-paper/tvdivq0000008q5y-att/JPXWorking_Paper_20121210.pdfhttp://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/research-study/working-paper/tvdivq0000008q5y-att/JPXWorking_Paper_20121210.pdfhttp://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/research-study/working-paper/tvdivq0000008q5y-att/JPXWorking_Paper_20121210.pdfhttp://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/research-study/working-paper/tvdivq0000008q5y-att/JPXWorking_Paper_20121210.pdfhttp://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/research-study/working-paper/tvdivq0000008q5y-att/JPXWorking_Paper_20121210.pdfhttp://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/research-study/working-paper/tvdivq0000008q5y-att/JPXWorking_Paper_20121210.pdfhttp://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/research-study/working-paper/tvdivq0000008q5y-att/JPXWorking_Paper_20121210.pdfhttp://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/research-study/working-paper/tvdivq0000008q5y-att/JPXWorking_Paper_20121210.pdfhttp://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/research-study/working-paper/tvdivq0000008q5y-att/JPXWorking_Paper_20121210.pdfhttp://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/research-study/working-paper/tvdivq0000008q5y-att/JPXWorking_Paper_20121210.pdfhttp://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/research-study/working-paper/tvdivq0000008q5y-att/JPXWorking_Paper_20121210.pdfhttp://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/research-study/working-paper/tvdivq0000008q5y-att/JPXWorking_Paper_20121210.pdfhttp://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/investor-relations/ir-library/annual-reports/index.htmlhttp://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/investor-relations/ir-library/annual-reports/index.htmlhttp://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/investor-relations/ir-library/annual-reports/index.htmlhttp://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/investor-relations/ir-library/annual-reports/index.htmlhttp://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/investor-relations/ir-library/annual-reports/index.htmlhttp://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/investor-relations/ir-library/annual-reports/index.htmlhttp://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/investor-relations/ir-library/annual-reports/index.htmlhttp://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/investor-relations/ir-library/annual-reports/index.htmlhttp://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/investor-relations/ir-library/annual-reports/index.html

  • JPX

    http://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/research-study/working-paper/ 38

    JPX Vol.2 (2013130)

    http://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/research-study/working-paper/http://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/research-study/working-paper/http://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/research-study/working-paper/http://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/research-study/working-paper/http://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/research-study/working-paper/http://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/research-study/working-paper/http://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/research-study/working-paper/

  • 2013330

    http://www.sankeibiz.jp/macro/news/130330/eca1303300801002-n1.htm 39

    http://www.sankeibiz.jp/macro/news/130330/eca1303300801002-n1.htmhttp://www.sankeibiz.jp/macro/news/130330/eca1303300801002-n1.htmhttp://www.sankeibiz.jp/macro/news/130330/eca1303300801002-n1.htmhttp://www.sankeibiz.jp/macro/news/130330/eca1303300801002-n1.htm

  • 201472218

    1 10 40

  • A B

    41

  • 42

    84 101

    176 100

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    98 77

    1 99.2

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    98.8 1

    (1) 98: AB (2) 99.1 99.1 (3) 100 99.1

    (2)(3)

    42

  • tAB=5PB=0.01%

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    25

    50

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    125

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    475

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    PA=0.01%

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    43

  • 44

    http://www.fsa.go.jp/frtc/seika/discussion/2013/01.pdf

    , 20135

    44

    http://www.fsa.go.jp/frtc/seika/discussion/2013/01.pdfhttp://www.fsa.go.jp/frtc/seika/discussion/2013/01.pdf

  • 45

    tAB=5PB=0.0001%

    0%

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    25

    50

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    175

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    275

    300

    325

    350

    375

    400

    425

    450

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    500

    PA=0.0001%

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    45

  • 46

    500

    B PB

    0.0001% 0.0002% 0.0005% 0.001% 0.002% 0.005% 0.01% 0.02% 0.05% 0.1% 0.2%

    A PA

    0.0001% 90% 90% 91% 91% 92% 94% 97% 99% 100% 100% 100%

    0.0002% 90% 90% 90% 91% 91% 94% 97% 99% 100% 100% 100%

    0.0005% 89% 90% 91% 91% 92% 94% 96% 99% 100% 100% 100%

    0.001% 89% 89% 90% 90% 92% 94% 97% 99% 100% 100% 100%

    0.002% 87% 88% 89% 89% 91% 93% 97% 99% 100% 100% 100%

    0.005% 84% 85% 85% 84% 87% 92% 96% 99% 100% 100% 100%

    0.01% 75% 76% 76% 77% 78% 83% 92% 98% 100% 100% 100%

    0.02% 53% 52% 53% 54% 54% 59% 70% 93% 100% 100% 100%

    0.05% 5% 5% 4% 5% 5% 5% 6% 23% 93% 100% 100%

    0.1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 94% 100%

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    > PA tor

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    46

  • 47

    PA t 500PB=0.0001%

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    47

  • 48

    PA t PTS2012

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    48

  • 49

    A

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    49

  • 50 50

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  • 51

    PTS

    51

  • 2015/2/27

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    http://www.nikkei.com/article/DGKKZO83727450W5A220C1DTA000/http://www.nikkei.com/article/DGKKZO83727450W5A220C1DTA000/

  • 0.01% 0.5%

    0.3% 7.4% 0.5% 0.07%

    1 1,000 0.1 0.01% 10.00%

    1,001 5,000 0.5 0.01% 0.05%

    5,001 10,000 1 0.01% 0.02%

    10,001 50,000 5 0.01% 0.05%

    50,001 100,000 10 0.01% 0.02%

    100,001 500,000 50 0.01% 0.05%

    500,001 1,000,000 100 0.01% 0.02%

    1,000,001 5,000,000 500 0.01% 0.05%

    5,000,001 10,000,000 1,000 0.01% 0.02%

    10,000,001 50,000,000 5,000 0.01% 0.05%

    50,000,001 10,000 0.02%

    53

  • http://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/about-jpx/press-

    conference/nlsgeu000000560j-att/20141216reference.pdf

    CEO2014/12/16

    54 54

    http://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/about-jpx/press-conference/nlsgeu000000560j-att/20141216reference.pdfhttp://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/about-jpx/press-conference/nlsgeu000000560j-att/20141216reference.pdfhttp://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/about-jpx/press-conference/nlsgeu000000560j-att/20141216reference.pdfhttp://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/about-jpx/press-conference/nlsgeu000000560j-att/20141216reference.pdfhttp://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/about-jpx/press-conference/nlsgeu000000560j-att/20141216reference.pdfhttp://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/about-jpx/press-conference/nlsgeu000000560j-att/20141216reference.pdfhttp://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/about-jpx/press-conference/nlsgeu000000560j-att/20141216reference.pdfhttp://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/about-jpx/press-conference/nlsgeu000000560j-att/20141216reference.pdfhttp://www.jpx.co.jp/corporate/about-jpx/press-conference/nlsgeu000000560j-att/20141216reference.pdf

  • 55

    VaR

    * 2016 III

    http://www.slideshare.net/mizutata/20160805 http://www.mizutatakanobu.com/20160805.pdf * (2014) , 2014926 8404 http://www.mizutatakanobu.com/jphd.htm * Mizuta (2016) A Brief Review of Recent Artificial Market Simulation Studies for Financial Market Regulations And/Or Rules, SSRN Working Paper Series http://ssrn.com/abstract=2710495

    http://www.slideshare.net/mizutata/20160805http://www.slideshare.net/mizutata/20160805http://www.mizutatakanobu.com/20160805.pdfhttp://www.mizutatakanobu.com/20160805.pdfhttp://www.geocities.jp/mizuta_ta/jphd.htmhttp://www.geocities.jp/mizuta_ta/jphd.htmhttp://ssrn.com/abstract=2710495http://ssrn.com/abstract=2710495