演講者： 9515615195156152

指導老師：林娟娟教授

outline Abstract Introduction Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and

Replenishment Model development Simulation results and discussions Conclusions

原因◦ 經營型態的改變◦ CPFR 在深度合作中已成為供應鏈中重要的部份

方式◦ 模擬系統◦ CPFR 的五種方案

結果◦ 供應鏈中的零售商可由 buyer-driven 改為 supplier-

driven

新興策略：• Quick Response (QR)• Efficient Consumer Response (ECR)• Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI)• Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment

(CPFR) Mentzer - supply chain collaborative 之效能 Simatupang and Sridharan – collaborative

performance

IT 的效用◦ 提供更短的 lead time◦ 更少的 batch size

資訊交流的其他因素◦ Organizational culture◦ the effect of trust◦ Teamwork◦ reward systems

CPFR 有提供合作程序的指導手冊 其同時內容包含：

◦ 合作程序的細節◦ 合作夥伴的複雜程度

依然不被廣大採用以及研究的原因：◦ 缺乏足夠的資訊

VICS( 美國產業共用標準 ) 定義 CPFR – a collection of new business practices

和舊有的結盟策略相較：◦ 強力的商業連結計畫◦ 預測◦ 補充

食品雜貨：◦ 較短的商品週期◦ 海外生產

CPFR 的三大步驟： planning, forecasting, and replenishment

The details◦ Capability of partners - 夥伴能力◦ The role of the supply chain – 供應鏈中的角色◦ The information source – 資訊來源◦ Consensus between partners – 夥伴的共識

Model can be divided into four scenarios

The three stages are further divided into nine steps

1. Develop collaboration arrangement

2. Create joint business plan

3. Create sales forecast

4. Identify exceptions for sales forecast

5. Resolve/collaborate on exception items for sales forecast

6. Create order forecast

7. Identify exceptions for order forecast

8. Resolve/collaborate on exception items for order forecast

9. Generate order

CPFR has some typical benefits such as:

◦ Increased profitability – 增加收益◦ Reduced inventory – 減少存貨◦ Shortage cycle time – 較短的週期◦ More efficient transportation planning – 有效的運送◦ Decrease of shortages – 減少短缺◦ Better promotion planning – 更好地提升計畫◦ Improved customer service – 改進顧客服務

三個促成要素：◦ Information sharing – 資訊分享◦ Decision synchronization – 決策的同步◦ Incentive alignment – 誘因整合

由 Simatupang and Sridharan 證實

The main inhibitors◦ Lack of visibility – 可見性◦ Lack of trust – 信任◦ Lack of collaborative – 合作

Improved collaboration◦ Stabilizing objectives ◦ Broadening the complexity and scope with mutual

trust◦ Information sharing

McCarthy and Golicic 所提出以 CPFR 為基礎改進 S.C. 的方法：

◦ Internal forecasting process auditing – 預測內部查帳

◦ Top management support – 提高管理層的支援◦ Collaborative forecasting training – 加強合作的預測◦ Initially targeting key companies – 定立開始的目標◦ Creating a single demand projection – 單一需求預

測

Holmstrom etal : 預測是供應者的重點行動

零售業的管理程序：預測的基礎

POS 系統：提供連接，加強預測

定義 model 有五種方案 A non-collaboration model and CPFR

scenarios A-D

ARENA is a powerful discrete-event commercial software simulator

Supply chain structure ：為一二階層的 model

VICS 所說的CPFR 的基本步驟

Retailer: 面對不同 customer 的 demand rate◦ 其收入與訂購有一個公認的存貨政策

Manufacturer: 接收 retailer 的訂單後開始動作◦ 依供應者所提供的原料，製造公司有了收益及產品計劃；

原物料可為無限的產能

二階層 model 中 S.C 的參數 :◦ Customer demand rate – 顧客需求等級◦ Lead time – 生產週期◦ Inventory policy - 存貨規則

(s,S) inventory policy◦ Exception criteria – 例外原則

Sales forecast exception Order forecast exception

The following in formation may be shared between partners

◦ Promotion information – 促銷計畫◦ Sales information – 銷售資訊◦ Inventory information – 存貨資訊◦ Capacity information – 生產能力

The lead sides for sales forecast, order forecast, and order generation—Table1

The information sharing settings of the five scenarios—Table2

各效能所表示的意思：◦ Average service level◦ Average fulfillment rate◦ Average order cycle time◦ Total system cost

Inventory holding cost Shortage cost Order cost

Performance of non-collaboration scenario

Retailer’s sales ,order forecasts are based on its own data.

Generate large increase in shortage costs& order cycle time.

Decrease fulfillment rate for both retailer & manufacturer.

Performance of non-collaboration scenario

Performance of CPFR scenario A shared: promotion ,sales information

retailer lead-->sales forecast, order forecast, order generation

Without sharing product capacity, the stock-out and order time in the manufacturer side increase to a high level.

Performance of CPFR scenario A

Performance of CPFR scenario B shared: promotion, sales, inventory, capacity

retailer lead --> sales forecast manufacturer lead --> order forecast & order generation

Manufacturer can increase the replenishment to the retailer.

outsourcing

Performance of CPFR scenario B

Performance of CPFR scenario C

shared: promotion, inventory information

Similar to scenario A, but order cycle time and shortage cost is better than A.

Manufacturer can replenishment to the retailer while production capacity limitation is met.

Performance of CPFR scenario C

Performance of CPFR scenario D shared: inventory, capacity information

manufacturer lead all. ( sales forecast, order forecasts, order

generation)

Without sharing promotion calendar, the reduce of service level and fulfillment rate for retailer due to manufacturer’s lowered replenishment.

Performance of CPFR scenario D

Average system service levelB>C>A>D>non

B >A,C--> capacity not shared

C>A --> manufacturer lead order generation in (C)

D --> no promotion calendar

Average system fulfillment rateB>C>A>D>non

D -->retailer was not shared promotion calendar with trading partner.

Average system cycle timenon>A>C>D>B

A.C --> non-sharing of production capacity, and order fulfillment is restricted by capacity level.

D --> manufacturer made replenishment decision.

Total system costnon> D>A>C>B

C -->manufacturer made replenishment decision, which decreased shortage cost.

B -->shared the most information.

Fiala&Sahin: 供應鏈間提供越多資訊，其產生的合作效能也會越高

Holmstrom: 大量合作關係對夥伴間是有好處的 Holmstrom: 供應鏈中的合作關係是依賴在內部及

外部事務的整合 Soliman: 會受到其它變因也會影響，貿易夥伴的壓力﹑競爭者的壓力﹑夥伴間的信任﹑會影響是否是使內部企業系統的意念。

Fliedner:ERP 系統可以連接跨企業的夥伴

In practice, supply chain collaboration usually starts with uncomplicated scenario due to low mutual trust.

Large retailer such as ”Wal-Mart”, are able to make planning, forecasting and replenishment decisions.

Company in Taiwan A->B,C,D

Further results

Perturbed some parameters: (table10)Customer demand rate ↑Lead time from supplier to manufacturer ↑Production capacity↑

Result: (table11)Total system cost ↑ due to customer demandCPFR-B is still better scenario.

Further results

Perturbed some parameters: (table12)Unit holding ↑Shortage costs ↓

Results: (table13)Cost parameters may impact on the total

system cost.CPFR-B&D are better scenarios.

CPFR integrate internal and external business activities.

Mutual trust plays an essential role.

Knowledge sharing, technology sharing, risk sharing, revenue sharing

Limitation

We Analyzed based on simulation, not on surveys provided by enterprises.

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