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AMeD
AS 1
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100 30mm
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300km
30 40 hPa/ N (N) 30 980hPa
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SRES A1B
No.749
SRES A1B 4 RCM5 1990 1999 RCM5 19792003 RCM5 2086 2095 RCM5 2086 2095
34 No.749
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(H20.3 H23.3)
35
GCM20 A1B
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20% 1
100 1.15 1
KNMI06 1 2015 16,000m3/s 2050 18,000m3/s
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1 JICE 19 2 p9-10
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KLIWA1971 2000 2021 2050
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14,330km2 1/150 3 260mm
9,010km2 1/150 3 215mm
1,930km2 1/100 12 138mm
10,150km2 1/150 2 200mm
16,840km2 1/200 3 318mm
11,900km2 1/150 2 270mm
9,100km2 1/200 2 295mm
8,240km2 1/200 24 261mm
3,900km2 1/100 2 323mm
3,750km2 1/150 2 440mm
2,860km2 1/150 48 521mm
1/100 or
1/150
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South Ferry A Stronger More Resilient New York, The City of New York, Credit MTA Photos
https://www.flickr.com/photos/dvids/8167326468/
2012 10 2936m/s
147 72
16
40m
320 294
http://www.af.mil/News/Photos.aspx?igphoto=2000098970
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1971-2000 2020 2050
0 +4 to 8 in. +11in. +11 to 24in. +31in.
2inch 3 3 to 4 4 5 to 7 7
100 1.0% 1.2% to 1.5% 1.7% 1.7% to 3.2% 5.0%
100NAVD88 feet
15.0 15.3 to 15.7 15.8 15.9 to 17.0 17.6 42
NY NY
Flood Insurance Rate Map NY FEMA FIRMFIRM
NY 2008 2013 A
Stronger More Resilient New York
i
FIRMs
1/100 1983 FIRMs)
NPCC New York City Panel on Climate Change Climate Risk Information 2013
A Stronger More Resilient New York, The City of New York
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NY FEMA
2020 2050
A Stronger More Resilient New York, The City of New York
10
$
B
B
B
1/50 1/60
70190
205050
2050 705
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3 10
225 89
H26.11 IPCC 5
H26.12
1.2 1.4
100
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