Family Economics- Marriage and Fertility2012/10/24

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ex: 9999 ex: ex:

Part I: Marriage1.Becker (1974)()

2. Manser & Brown (1980):?

7v.s Forgone cost (ex.)

:::2.

Becker::3. -- 1- 2- ex: Santos and Fredian ?

1.

2.

2.

3. (bargaining power)

1 2 3 4Amato and Keith 1991 Haveman and Wolfe 199515(%) 15(%) 15(%) 201990201037.98 29.5938.1631.66+0.4%+7.0%57.3061.0852.6451.20-8.1%-16.2%2.232.206.827.41+205.8%+236.8%20100/00=(/)*1000=(/)*1000Asias lonely harts: the fight from marriage

: The Economist (Aug. 20th 2011)

(Confucian ethics)Mahathir1995250ex: 20085566:The Economist1.

200029-3031-33--2628

2.3023030201030-343735-392135-391315

3. 19801/100020102/1000:The Economist

1.marry up 20082. 303Mamas boys

-

1. ++no babies19605.320101.6

Part II: Fertility123

::1. 2. 3. 4.

15-4919713.70520100.89520111.0652011197150187,442/380,424

(2012 2012CIA-The World Factbook 1Niger7.1687India2.58123United State2.03172Sweden1.67182China1.55205Japan1.39218South Korea1.23220Taiwan1.10221Singapore0.78 -CIA

0-141970200142026

2050

demographic dividend:Demographic dividend: The first dividend:VIPThe second dividend: demographic dividend

- Individual demographic dividend (from Ronald D. Lee and Andrew Mason 2006)

1. no marriage, no babies2.

.v.sGDP -wikipedia

3. 197522.9200628.1

1997199819992000200120022003200420052006200926.326.426.726.726.726.927.227.427.728.129.327.727.827.928.028.228.328.628.929.129.2-26.927.227.427.728.028.328.628.929.129.2---28.929.129.229.3-29.729.830.0-2000

2009

4.

2005Smart510201018226,9205. ex: 2010 201035-3919812 (1) (2) (3)

60-801940-50Parish and Willis (1993) Chen, Chen and Liu (2010)19781984

Sex Selection) or 1980Sex Selection)

Sex Selection) /=1.05 ~1.07 (sex-ratio of men to women=1.05~1.07)1978=1.082

: 1.0701.0701.1111.162Sex Selection) 2010

(1)=> (2)=> A 0.01 increase in the sex ratio raised violent and property crime rates by some 3% in China. (Edlund, Li, Yi and Zhang, 2007)

(Missing Women)(Missing Women)Sen 19905371970(Hudson and den Boer 200520101.181.09Avraham Ebenstein 203060,000,00025-Blog

(Missing Women)BBaruch S. Blumberg B1.5

Emily Oster (2005)SenB5075BMissing WomenMing-Jen Lin and Ming-Ching Luoh (2008)300B0.0025Nancy Qian (2008)19781.51/10020033.68/10020104.47%)

-30201978-20034.08%1.51%200335.30%21.93%

-1996200351.65%

(Kraft and Coverdill, 1994; Akerlof et al., 1996) (Powers, 2001; Upchurch et al., 2002; Aassve, 2003; Powers, 2005; Wolfe et al., 2007; Wu, 2008)(South and Lloyd, 1992; Sucoff and Upchurch, 1998; Rosenzweig, 1999; South and Baumer, 2000; Lott and Whitley, 2007):(income/needs) (Geronimus and Korenman, 1992; Ribar, 1994; Hoffman et al., 1993)(Bennett et al., 1995)(Ermisch and Pevalin, 2005)(Bronars and Grogger, 1994)