全球棉花供求预测 global supply and demand prospects

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全全全全全全全全 Global Supply and Demand Prospects Ray Butler, Managing Director, Cotlook Limited www.cotlook.com Zhengzhou 2010

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全球棉花供求预测 Global Supply and Demand Prospects. Ray Butler, Managing Director, Cotlook Limited www.cotlook.com. 三十年价格走势 Price developments over three decades. A 指数含义 A Index description. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: 全球棉花供求预测 Global Supply and Demand Prospects

全球棉花供求预测 

Global Supply and Demand Prospects

Ray Butler, Managing Director, Cotlook Limited

www.cotlook.com

Zhengzhou 2010

Page 2: 全球棉花供求预测 Global Supply and Demand Prospects

三十年价格走势Price developments over three decades

Zhengzhou 2010

Page 3: 全球棉花供求预测 Global Supply and Demand Prospects

A 指数含义A Index description

• CFR 远东港口包括曼谷、南查邦、雅加达、香港、槟榔屿、巴生、新加坡、釜山,日本和中国的一些主要港口、马尼拉、台南、基隆、三宝垄、泗水。其他港口的运费差异也已经考虑在内。 CFR main Far Eastern ports including Bangkok, Laemchabang, Jakarta, Hong Kong, Penang, Kelang, Singapore, Busan, principal Japanese and Chinese ports, Manila, Tainan, Keelung, Semarang, Surabaya). Minor freight differences for other destinations are taken into account.

• 报价基准为成本加运费( CFR ),即期信用证, 1% 代理佣金及合理利润。 The terms quoted are Cost and Freight, Letter of Credit at sight, including one percent agent's commission and notional profit.

• 质量标准为 M 1-3/32”. Quality basis: Middling 1-3/32”.

• 计算:每个工作日从一篮子棉花品种中选取 5 个最低的远东到岸价计算平均值,这些棉花品种来自美国(三种)、印度、坦桑尼亚、乌兹别克、西非(每天不超过两个报价)、澳大利亚、巴西、墨西哥、叙利亚、希腊、土耳其、巴基斯坦以及中国。 Calculation: Average on any day of the five cheapest from a basket of growths, including three US, Indian, Tanzanian, Uzbekistan , any two from four West African, Australian, Brazilian, Mexican, Syrian, Greek, Turkish, Pakistan and Chinese.

Zhengzhou 2010

Page 4: 全球棉花供求预测 Global Supply and Demand Prospects

Cotlook 双指数系统

Zhengzhou 2010

Page 5: 全球棉花供求预测 Global Supply and Demand Prospects

Cotlook 指数与郑州期货价格 Cotlook A v ZCE

Zhengzhou 2010

Page 6: 全球棉花供求预测 Global Supply and Demand Prospects

消费量 Consumption

Zhengzhou 2010

Page 7: 全球棉花供求预测 Global Supply and Demand Prospects

全球棉花面积   World cotton area

Zhengzhou 2010

Page 8: 全球棉花供求预测 Global Supply and Demand Prospects

全球库存变化    World stocks

Zhengzhou 2010

Page 9: 全球棉花供求预测 Global Supply and Demand Prospects

Cotlook指数 The Cotlook A Index

Zhengzhou 2010

Page 10: 全球棉花供求预测 Global Supply and Demand Prospects

不确定因素Uncertainties

Zhengzhou 2010

Page 11: 全球棉花供求预测 Global Supply and Demand Prospects

2010/11 全球棉花面积2010/11 world cotton area

Zhengzhou 2010

Page 12: 全球棉花供求预测 Global Supply and Demand Prospects

美国产量US production

Zhengzhou 2010

Page 13: 全球棉花供求预测 Global Supply and Demand Prospects

截至 7 月 31 日的美棉新花远期销售US Forward Sales at July 31

Zhengzhou 2010

Page 14: 全球棉花供求预测 Global Supply and Demand Prospects

近 10年美棉出口趋势US exports – ten year history

Zhengzhou 2010

Page 15: 全球棉花供求预测 Global Supply and Demand Prospects

印度棉花供求India: supply and use

Zhengzhou 2010

Page 16: 全球棉花供求预测 Global Supply and Demand Prospects

印度结转库存India’s carryover stocks

Zhengzhou 2010

Page 17: 全球棉花供求预测 Global Supply and Demand Prospects

巴基斯坦棉花供求Pakistan: production and consumption

Zhengzhou 2010

Page 18: 全球棉花供求预测 Global Supply and Demand Prospects

乌兹别克棉花供求Uzbekistan: production and consumption

Zhengzhou 2010

Page 19: 全球棉花供求预测 Global Supply and Demand Prospects

非洲法郎区棉花产量 AFZ: production

Zhengzhou 2010

Page 20: 全球棉花供求预测 Global Supply and Demand Prospects

巴西棉花供求Brazil: supply and use

Zhengzhou 2010

Page 21: 全球棉花供求预测 Global Supply and Demand Prospects

澳大利亚棉花产量 Australian production

Zhengzhou 2010

Page 22: 全球棉花供求预测 Global Supply and Demand Prospects

全球理论库存变化 Changes in theoretical world stocks

Zhengzhou 2010

Page 23: 全球棉花供求预测 Global Supply and Demand Prospects

政府措施Government policies

•中国 China

• 印度 India

• 美国农业法案争议

US Farm Bill debate

Zhengzhou 2010

Page 24: 全球棉花供求预测 Global Supply and Demand Prospects

Cotlook 棉纱指数与 A 指数Cotlook Yarn Index v A Index

Zhengzhou 2010

Page 25: 全球棉花供求预测 Global Supply and Demand Prospects

欲询更多信息For more information

• 英文信息,请登录 Cotlook 网站 English language services and international cotton prices

www.cotlook.com

• 中文信息,请登录中国棉花信息网  Chinese-language news and information • www.cottonchina.org

Zhengzhou 2010