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拉美的金融自由化与金融危机拉美的金融自由化与金融危机

Financial liberalization and financial crises in Financial liberalization and financial crises in Latin America:Latin America:

A Chinese PerspectiveA Chinese Perspective 社科院拉美所 江时学社科院拉美所 江时学

Jiang ShixueJiang ShixueInstitute of Latin American StudiesInstitute of Latin American Studies

Chinese Academy of Social SciencesChinese Academy of Social Sciences

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进口替代时期拉美的金融业Latin America’s financial sector

during the ISI period

• 在实施进口替代工业化发展模式时，拉美国家仅注重实际经济的发展：工业化、农业现代化、对外贸易、技术转让，等等。金融部门在国民经济中的地位较低。

• In the ISI era Latin America only emphasized the development of the so-called real economy like manufacturing, agriculture, trade, technology transfer, etc. Therefore, the position of the financial sector was marginalized.

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• 虽然拉美国家也关注投资和融资，但关注的重点是如何吸引 FDI ，如何获取双边或多边援助，如何举借国际商业银行的贷款。

• Though Latin America paid attention to investment and financing, it only focused on how to attract FDI, bank credit and foreign aids.

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• 即便是影响拉美经济发展近 40 年的发展主义理论（或“中心－外围”理论），也基本上没有涉及发展金融业的重要性。

• Even Raul Prebisch and his “center-periphery theory” failed to recognize the importance of the financial sector.

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70 年代拉美国家的金融自由化Latin American financial liberalization

in the 1970s

• 70 年代 , 南锥体国家（如智利、阿根廷、乌拉圭）曾实施过金融自由化。其内容是利率市场化、取消定向贷款和降低储备金率，等等。

• In the 1970s the Southern Cone countries carried out neoconservative experiments, and financial liberalization was one part of the reform programs. It included marketization of the interest rate, elimination of the target loans and reduction of the reserves.

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• 70 年代的这一次金融自由化后因爆发了不同程度的银行危机和 80 年代的债务危机而停止。

• This episode of liberalization ended in repeated banking crises and debt crises.

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90 年代的拉美金融自由化Latin American financial liberalization in t

he 1990s

• 与 70 年代相比， 90 年代的金融自由化具有以下两个特点（ 1 ）实施金融自由化的国家不再限于少数，而是遍布整个拉美大陆。

• Compared with the 1970s, financial liberalization in the 1990s acquired new features: (1) Almost all the countries in the region carried out financial liberalization.

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• (2) 金融自由化的范围更广。除 70 年代实施的放松利率管制、取消定向贷款和降低银行储备金比率等措施以外， 90 年代的金融自由化还包括以下内容：对国有银行实施私有化、积极引进外国银行的参与、加强中央银行的独立性。

• （ 2 ） In addition to loosening control on interest rate setting, eliminating target loan and reducing bank reserves, Latin American countries also privatized state-owned banks, encouraged the participation of the foreign banks and strengthened central bank independence.

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何谓成功的金融自由化？What is a successful program of financial libe

ralization

• 3 个有利于：－有利于保持金融稳定－有利于促进经济增长－有利于低收入家庭更容易地获得资金• According to B. Stallings, a successful program of f

inancial liberalization tends to (1) promote financial stability; (2) speed up economic growth; and 3) facilitate the low-income families to gain easier access to credit.

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90 年代拉美金融自由化的成效 What has been achieved?

• 它在一定程度上缓解了“金融压抑”，使金融机构的业务范围不断扩大，金融部门在国民经济中的地位进一步上升，金融机构为投资项目融资的能力也有相应的提高。

• Financial repression has been greatly reduced; the position of the financial sector in the economy has been raised; and the capacity of the financial sector to finance investment projects has been strengthened.

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• 金融自由化使拉美国家的银行业吸引了大量外资。 • 私人资本在银行部门中的作用越来越重要。 • 金融部门运转的规则发生了变化。• More foreign capital has been attracted to the financial se

ctor;

• Private capital has been playing a more important role;

• Rules governing the functioning of the financial sector have been changed so that it can now operate in a more liberal environment.

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金融自由化与金融危机的关系• 保罗 · 克鲁格曼：让我们玩这样一种文字游戏：一个人说出一个词或短语，另一个人把他听到后头脑中的第一个反应回答出来。 ～

• Paul Krugman said, “ Imagine playing word association - in which one person says a word or phrase, and the other is supposed to reply with the first thing that pops into his mind - with an experienced international banker, finance official, or economist. ～

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• 如果你对一个见多识广的国际银行家、金融官员或经济学家说“金融危机”，他肯定会回答：“拉美”。

• Until very recently, and perhaps even now, if you said 'financial crisis', he would surely reply 'Latin America'."

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• 1994 年墨西哥金融危机；• 1999 年巴西金融危机；• 2001 年阿根廷金融危机。

• Mexico’s crisis in 1994;

• Brazil’s crisis in 1999;

• Argentina’s crisis in 2001.

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三次危机的内部因素 Internal Factors of the three Crises

汇 率 政 策

Exch. Pol

债 务 负 担

Debt

金 融自由化

Fin. Lib.

财 政 赤 字

Fis. Def.

经常项目赤字

Cur.Acc

政 治因 素 Politics

高利率 政策

High Int.

墨西哥

Mxo √

√

√ √

巴西

Brz √ √

√

√ √阿根廷

Arg √ √

√

√

√

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对中国的启示 Implications for China

• “把汇率搞正确”。• 确保债务的“可持续性”。• 提高财政部门的稳健度。• 要重视经常项目赤字。• “Get the exchange rate right.”• To maintain sustainability of the foreign debt.• To enhance fiscal soundness.• To keep the current account deficit at a manageable le

vel.

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• 对于发展中国家来说，金融自由化、资本项目开放是必要的，但必须采取循序渐进的步骤，不能急于求成。

• Financial liberalization and capital account opening are necessary, but they should be carried out in a gradual way.

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周小川 Zhou Xiaochuan （ 1999 ）

• “中国改革的一个特点是采用渐进改革，而没有像原苏联和一部分东欧国家那样采取休克疗法。……但是，在此我想表明的是，实际上，没有任何一种做法是十全十美的。各种做法均有其利弊。 ~

• China’s reform follows a path of gradualism, not the shock therapy adopted by the former Soviet republics and East Europe. As a matter of fact, however, no reform program is flawless. ~

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• 因此，在我们大张旗鼓地阐明渐进式改革的好处时，也需要认识到渐进式改革的成本和缺点。在改革的一定阶段、征途中会有一个或数个陷阱。

• We need to recognize the advantage of a gradualist approach. At the same time, we should also understand its cost and disadvantage. When reform comes to a certain stage, one or more obstacles will appear.

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• 没有一定的速度和惯性就不容易闯过去，处理不好就会越陷越深。为此，有人将这种陷阱称为 Gradualism Trap 。

• Without speed and the force of inertia, it is hard to cross over these obstacles. This is called the gradualism trap.

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• 发展中国家应该以积极姿态参与金融全球化进程。将金融全球化视为解决发展中国家的一切问题的“灵丹妙药”是完全错误的，而把它看作“罪恶之源”、“洪水猛兽”也是不应该的。

• Despite the crises in Latin America, developing countries should still maintain an active attitude towards financial globalization and liberalization. Financial globalization and liberalization is neither a panacea nor a devil.

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谢谢谢谢 Thank youThank you