《银发中国》再探

中国养老制度改革的长征

作者：理查德.杰克逊, 中嶋圭介, 尼尔.豪

顾问/翻译：周健工

Foreword 1

(John J. Hamre) (Edward P. Baird)

PFI

PFIPrudential plc

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0

100

200

300

400

500

2035 205020051975

366

64

284

144

208

393

185

438

2

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3

“China Quarterly Update,” http://www.worldbank.org

Diana Farrell, Ulrich A. Gersch, and Elizabeth Stephenson, “ The Value of China’s Emerging Middle Class,” The McKinsey Quarterly,

Special Edition (2006 ), 63.

“China Sees Soaring Migrant Population,”

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$5,046

$23,363

$31,310 $31,607

$43,227

$47,488

48960L02.indd 348960L02.indd 3 4/1/09 1:48:01 PM4/1/09 1:48:01 PM

4

48960L02.indd 448960L02.indd 4 4/1/09 1:29:40 PM4/1/09 1:29:40 PM

5

48960L02.indd 548960L02.indd 5 4/1/09 1:29:52 PM4/1/09 1:29:52 PM

48960L02.indd 648960L02.indd 6 4/1/09 1:30:05 PM4/1/09 1:30:05 PM

200

150

100

50

0

-50

-100 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040

127

17 2331

163

92 9274

105

59

1

41

-65 -5815-59 60

7

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7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

1949 6.1

1970 5.8

1980 2.2

1990 2.2

2000 1.8

2006 1.8

1949 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2006

$0 $4,000 $8,000 $12,000 $16,000 $20,000

$15,538 , 1943

$14,900 , 1972

$16,256 , 1999

$4,088 , 2005

“Shanghai Residents Live Longer, See Medical Bills Drop,” Shanghai Daily, ; “Life Expectancy of Beijing Residents

Reaches 80 Years,”

48960L02.indd 848960L02.indd 8 4/1/09 2:10:03 PM4/1/09 2:10:03 PM

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

1950-55 1955-60 1960-65 1965-70 1970-75 1982 1990 2000 2005

4145

50

6063

68 69 71 73

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10

“China Denies Plan to Scrap One-Child Policy,” Jim Yardley, “China Sticking with One-Child Policy,” The New York Times,

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

7% 14%

11% 17%

17% 22%

24% 24%

29% 25%

33% 26%

1970

2005

2020

2030

2040

2050

48960L02.indd 1048960L02.indd 10 4/1/09 1:30:59 PM4/1/09 1:30:59 PM

0%

20%

40%

60%

10%

30%

50%

70% 65%

11%

20%

69%

7% 5%

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12

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%6.9%

3.2%

1.2%

48960L02.indd 1248960L02.indd 12 4/1/09 2:13:18 PM4/1/09 2:13:18 PM

13

1.9

0.40.4

1.5

1.21.0

0.9

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

5Q4Q3Q2Q1Q

0.20.3

0.7

“300 Million Chinese Farmers to Move into Cities in Next 20 Years,”

The Development of China’s Undertaking for the Aged,

“Elderly Deserted by Own Families,” AFP, December 4, 2006.

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14

0%

20%

40% 37%

54%

27% 29%38%

61% 60%

88%

60%

80%

100%

“ From Decline of Fertility to Transition of Age Structure: Aging and Its Policy Implications in China,” Genus 57, no.1(2001).

“China: 30 Million Men Face Bleak Futures as Singles,”

Raymond Zhang, “Views on Filial Piety See Change,” China Daily,

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15

Feng Wang and Andrew Mason,

“Demographic Dividend and Prospects for Economic Development in China” (paper presented at the UN Expert Meeting on Social and Economic

Implications of Changing Population Age Structures, Mexico City,

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

10087

75

6257 56 54

48 4750

5459

6774 76

8087

0

1975200520302050

53.6%67.4%59.8%53.4%

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16

9.0

8.0

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

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17

Richard Jackson Neil Howe The Graying of the Great Powers: Demography and Geopolitics in the 21st Century

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18 China’s Long March to Retirement Reform

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48960L02.indd 1948960L02.indd 19 4/1/09 1:33:00 PM4/1/09 1:33:00 PM

20

7.7 7.5 7.2 7.0 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.1 5.95.4 5.2

4.43.9

3.4 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.1

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

3.2

2007

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China: Evaluation of the Liaoning Social Security Pilot, Report no. 38183-CN

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22

40%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

45%

30%

21%

17%15%

12%

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“The Origin of China’s Partially Funded Social Security Scheme and Its Future Direction,” The Chinese Economy 40, no.4 (July/August

2007); “ Assessment for Social Security Pilot in Jilin and Heilongjiang of China,” China & World Economy 14, no. 5

“China: Pension Liabilities and Reform Options for Old-Age Insurance,” World Bank Working Paper Series no. 2005-1

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24

Liaoning Social Security Pilot,

“China to Cover 200m Migrant Workers with Portable Pension System,” ChinaStakes.com, ; and Shan He, “A Large Social Safety

Net Spun for 1.3 Billion,” China.org.cn,

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26 China’s Long March to Retirement Reform

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27

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28

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30

“Hidden Pot of Gold: Responding to China’s Pension Burden,” CLSA-U Speaker Series (CLSA, ; and

Donald R. Forest, “The Promise of Enterprise Annuities,” China Business Review

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32

Tingting Zhang, “Nationwide Applicable Social Security System Urged,” China.org.cn, ; and “New Social Security Scheme on

Cards in Shenzhen,” China Daily,

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36

13.5%

17.6%

20.2%

23.3%

27.0%

31.4%

15.4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5%

5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

26%

30%

33%

38%

43%

50%

57%

28%

32%

36%

41%

47%

54%

62%

30%

35%

40%

45%

52%

60%

69%

33%

38%

43%

50%

57%

66%

76%

36%

41%

47%

55%

63%

73%

84%

39%

45%

52%

60%

70%

81%

94%

43%

50%

58%

67%

78%

90%

105%

52% 49% 47% 45% 43% 41% 39%

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“China’s Next Revolution,” The Economist,

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, China Capital Markets Development Report (Beijing: China Financial Publishing House, ), 275; and Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States (Washington, DC: Board of the Governors of the Federal Reserve System,

, 90

Nicholas R. Lardy, “Financial Repression in China,” Policy Brief no. 08-8 (Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International

Economics,

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166%

66%

50%65%

135%

216%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

22% 5%

“The Origin of China’s Partially Funded Social Security

Scheme and Its Future Direction,” The Chinese Economy 40, no. 4

Liaoning Social Security Pilot, 38

40

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43

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42

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44

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Asian Bonds Online,

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“Hidden Pot of Gold: Responding to China’s Pension Burden,” CLSA-U Speaker Series

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46

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48 T h e

Graying of the Middle Kingdom

48

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Notes 49

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