NGO97102997

IEA(2007)203084203068WRI(2007)2025GHG Global distribution of large stationary sources of CO2() IEA(2007)World Energy Outlook

()BP(2007) statistical review of world energy 1.2.

(2006)

12,082

181

9,091

(2006)

298

2.9

62.0

41

63

147

2006()200720082009COP 12 COP 13COP 14 COP 15G8 G8 (AWG-KP)3.9 (Bali Action Plan)AWG-LCA(2008) 13( Bali Action Plan)20092012 83200915G8205050% 2008.0320082009 20082008.061. 2.()3.2008.081.(REDD)(Sectoral Approach) 2.

99.2% 8.65%2007147.2491.6 % ()147.24(2008), 96

2007243, 180()40.1%20060.637CO2e/

()20051CO2e/21.IEA(2007), CO2 emissions from fuel combustion Highlights 1971-2005(2007 Edition) 2.(2008), 97,27.9%11.3% ()11.4%10.0%39.0%20072007 ()5.01%18.4%16.7%6.2%53.6%243,1804,572.0(2008), 96

0.4290.4180.5760.0870.841

20050.63220060.63820070.637

1990CO211,050200626,527200616,40961.86%5,26819.86%3,71314%2250.85%5221.97%20052216CO2(2007)()()- IEA(2007), CO2 Emission from Fuel Combustion Highlights 1971-2005.

1.GDP

billion 2000$

355.53

16

2.CO2

Mtoe

261.28

22

3.CO2

t CO2/ capita

11.41

16

4.GDP CO2

kg CO2/ 2000$

0.73

73

201532016202020082025200040%202555%82201520%202550%Cool !(Cool)

()

20258%202525%()

202530% 201525%()

20157%(Carbon Neutral) 201110%~70%201520~90%() ()

()4 50 100

() 20162020200820252000() () (NGO

(Policy)(Plan)(97)630959707

1.2.3.()

E

96 94 94() (6/157/24)NGO(8/16)(8/229/5) (10/1812/13)859495()

1.201532006~20254.27%2006~20154. 79% 2016~20253.74%2016 ( (2008) TaiSEND)

201529()

TaiSEND()20052006~20152016~20252006~20254.164.793.744.27

TaiSENDGDP(/)200520152025522,306852,1571,285,955

2.20162020200820252000

-40%202555%-822015200520%202550%133(Kg-CO2)(toe)(Kg-CO2/toe)

(1) -a.

(42.3)

IGCCCCS()

2020IGCC+CCS(20201GW20253 GW)

LNG

20101,05020201,60020252,000

20103,920MW20154,972 MW20206,711MW20258,450MW

2009

~

(BREF)(BREF) 5

b.

(%)

(Electrical efficiency)

LHVnet

()

36-40

32-35

38-45

-

>38

>35

/ (HRSG)

54-58

50-54

(HRSG)

1. 2.3.5. 1. 2.3.4.1.2.3.4.1.2.3. 4.

1. 2.(Carbon Neutral)

1.2.

50%201020052020201520254.69.27.16.65.8(LOE/) (base)()2%(2) -U,

() 1.4.8%12.0%

15.6%

37.3%

30.3 %10,5490.4 %8.5 %8.0 %

51.2%

31.9%

12,78913,3326.8%6.8%

22.3%

43.1%

21.0%13,61812,0946.5%10.0%19.8%

39.6%

24.1%1.(2008)96 2.(2008) Markal05 %10.6 %6.7 %

50.8%

31.4 %

Chart3

331153597121112.843.5

4354697210851154.648.7

3876476419951536616

2920479523941209772

280157442975901910

201520152015

2005

$4,356$5,547$5,436$5,017

$6,929$6,161$6,161$5,242

$1,085$2,265$2,265$2,408

$1,158$1,434$1,434$1,434

$75$711$711$711

2025202520252025

20002005201520202025

33114354$3,876$2,920$2,801

53596972$4,764$4,795$5,744

7121085$1,995$2,394$2,975

1112.81154.6$1,536$1,209$901

43.548.7$616$772$910

$13,614

Sheet3

2005201520252015202520152025

$1,726$2,522$3,661$2,432$2,673$2,106$1,876

$483$438$161$438$142$376$96

$1,110$1,716$2,101$1,716$2,101$1,716$1,716

$514$784$365$784$365$784$365

$260$260$360$260$360$260$360

259600800600800600$800

Sheet3

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2. ()200043.2%201553.1%202553.8%1.(2008)96 2.(2008) Markal

(Life Cycle Thinking)FAHPLCA()1. (96.06.1596.07.24)2.4. (97.10.22)

()()() 1. 2. 3.

()

LCA(Gate to gate)CO2

( 2,4,Dsoil)(2,4,Dwater)(eq SO2)(eq Bezeneair )eq Toulene200073.70.1516.91.644642005104.50.2723.22.2569201573.50.3918.81.4415202586.70.5220.61.4525

()()200560196259()25.640.937.555.22025159.220152025(GNEP ) (2008)

200526.14%201528.75%25.37% (2008) TaiSEND

2000

2.56

31.31

66.13

2005

2.24

26.14

71.62

2015

2.12

28.75

69.13

2020

2.01

27.62

70.37

2025

1.91

25.37

72.72

(%)

200599.1%86.4%202553.8%40%202555%2025()19.9%15%(8%)

(%)

(/)

(/)

(%)

()(%)

2000

98.7

60.9

108.6

4,195

43.2

14.0

2005

99.1

61.4

104.8

4,974

40.1

12.0

2015

83.2

52.1

155.2

5,515

52.2

13.2

2025

86.4

53.7

220.1

5,749

53.8

19.9

()()(FAHP)()FAHP(SAW)AHP FAHP

FAHP1. 2.

3. 4.

5%20154%