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Page 1: پژويان - atuijer.atu.ac.ir/article_3860_825f701db8b942eca288120f443c53ae.pdf · Nieswiadomy, M.L, Molina, D.J. (1989). Comparing Residential Water Estimates Under Decreasing

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Email:[email protected] 2. Cointegration Vector Autoregressive (CVAR) Model.

Page 2: پژويان - atuijer.atu.ac.ir/article_3860_825f701db8b942eca288120f443c53ae.pdf · Nieswiadomy, M.L, Molina, D.J. (1989). Comparing Residential Water Estimates Under Decreasing

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1. UNESCO,(1997).

Page 3: پژويان - atuijer.atu.ac.ir/article_3860_825f701db8b942eca288120f443c53ae.pdf · Nieswiadomy, M.L, Molina, D.J. (1989). Comparing Residential Water Estimates Under Decreasing

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Page 4: پژويان - atuijer.atu.ac.ir/article_3860_825f701db8b942eca288120f443c53ae.pdf · Nieswiadomy, M.L, Molina, D.J. (1989). Comparing Residential Water Estimates Under Decreasing

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Page 5: پژويان - atuijer.atu.ac.ir/article_3860_825f701db8b942eca288120f443c53ae.pdf · Nieswiadomy, M.L, Molina, D.J. (1989). Comparing Residential Water Estimates Under Decreasing

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Page 6: پژويان - atuijer.atu.ac.ir/article_3860_825f701db8b942eca288120f443c53ae.pdf · Nieswiadomy, M.L, Molina, D.J. (1989). Comparing Residential Water Estimates Under Decreasing

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Page 7: پژويان - atuijer.atu.ac.ir/article_3860_825f701db8b942eca288120f443c53ae.pdf · Nieswiadomy, M.L, Molina, D.J. (1989). Comparing Residential Water Estimates Under Decreasing

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Page 8: پژويان - atuijer.atu.ac.ir/article_3860_825f701db8b942eca288120f443c53ae.pdf · Nieswiadomy, M.L, Molina, D.J. (1989). Comparing Residential Water Estimates Under Decreasing

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Page 9: پژويان - atuijer.atu.ac.ir/article_3860_825f701db8b942eca288120f443c53ae.pdf · Nieswiadomy, M.L, Molina, D.J. (1989). Comparing Residential Water Estimates Under Decreasing

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�+ 0�� 2& ��5�� A�� _�I� 0'�m+ 2*&�0 4���& �& ���0 �+ $ �'� . .W�$ >���/ B)o� �� �/���%�� !� & 2+��� � ��� 2���� 2�'$ c'"'+ ��� 2& ;�<xg� !0�� . 4��'5�+ !�/���� ���[$ & ��7=�

��+ �����/ ����� F���� �� � >��� !���[$ 2d 2� ��a� ��� J� �/ 2��� �-���8�3� � 4��'� � ��'� _ � ���+ ...�+ 4��0�� �0 �'� �� !�"�#$ !'��� �0�� H�+ F+�< N� ��'�< 2& ���'$.

+,:,) . �G7 0�=6 B�!��� ����4 ��6��

�+ (=��0� �0 �'� ���� ;0'? ��� ���+J 2)?�= �& � ���� ;0'? 2& 2� ���/0�'��� 0����� 4���� ;0'? �& 2*&�0 � !� 2= [$ �� 2& (3�� � Q� � i0� �@& �0 �'� _ e+ ��7+ � ��=��0� ����

1. Principle Residence. 2. Secondary Residence.

Page 10: پژويان - atuijer.atu.ac.ir/article_3860_825f701db8b942eca288120f443c53ae.pdf · Nieswiadomy, M.L, Molina, D.J. (1989). Comparing Residential Water Estimates Under Decreasing

8) ����� ���� � ���� �����

�+ ��� ! �& R���� � �J 4��/� , �)3` ���� ;0'? �)3+ �� O� ��'+� = 2& !� & ! ��� ��+J��0��.

� .� �� ���� ��� ����������

�"�#$ %&�'$ u� l��� 0� �0 (��� & �� �"�#$ %&�'$ .��� !� &0�� ;�&���+ �= [+ ��� .A�� (��� &, & �5�+'��� 2� (�� ���/ �[3$ F5� ���&� (&')*+ %&�$ Q� � kl+ �0 u� l��� 2& � ��l$ � %&�$

�+ .�� �"�#$ �'� .�"�#$ %&�'$ .���! & �5�+ �*� u0�l+ .��� !'��� (LES)� ��x� �� v��� 2)�� ��� J� ']E � ���- � 4������ � A�+ � �&�0 . %&�'$ .��� J� A�� ��l$ 4>�� (��� &

6�0 �& 2� (�� �"�#$F��� I�� u� l��� 2& �@��+ Q���� _ e+ 0��=0 �&�� 2�@& 2��� ��� � J� �+ �"�#$ %&�'$ .��� 4�'�!'���(�� (��� & ��� Q��< A�y+ >�� $0 .

�?�� F5� W� �0'+ ;�+�� � �/E�� Q� - �� E�� 2� �*�� � 0� �3$ �0 Q���� _ e+ 0��=0 J� �+ ��@+ N�� ! 3� t�� F5� 6 �m� �� ��� g 4��� �[`�� 2&� ��+ �"�#$ %&�'$ ��l$ � 4���

2)�� ��� J�!'���(�� !0� " !�/E�� !�"�#$ !� & �*� u0�l+ .��� . ���X�� J� 2� _ e+ �� !0� "(��,�m� ,��� ���'$'�/ � �'� A'�'+ �[& 2&Q0� , 2& �� 2& J��

�0�� �'�� �$�� Q��+ N� ��'�< . ��� ;0�3< 2& , J� �)`��� J� Q0�'�/ !0� " !E�� N� ��'�< 2& ��(�� 0��0'� & _ e+ ,�m� , F5� ����� �� !�"�#$ u� l��� !� & 4B���+ (&')*+ %&�$ �[3$ F5�

(�� ! - v �'��� . R/��� J� F?�� V���� �+ ��� �/ � �/��'��� (&')*+ %&�$ 2–! -� (&')*+ %&�$ 2& 2�

2��� (&')*+ %&�$ c'� �� $0�-J�� 4(�� 0'@+ !0� " !�/E�� !� & Q�� !7�0 0'W�+ ��� !� &(��,./ 7� R/��� ��� ;�" = � ;�[`�� �& 2� �0�� !���J ���'� .%&�$ ��� ��� !�/ �-��� J� ,

� �X�� ��e�`� 0� �� ���� = Q��I���(� .��x� (&')*+ %&�$ J� ! - v �'��� w�&�0 � u� l��� !� & ��� Q� � Q��I��� �'� (&')*+ %&�$ .��x� (&')*+ %&�$–�+ �= [+ �J F5� 2& �&�0 �'�:

∏=

β =−=n

1iii n,...,3,2,1i)SQ(U i )U(

1. Linear Earn System. 2. Stone-Geary Utility Function. 3.Clien – Raubin.

Page 11: پژويان - atuijer.atu.ac.ir/article_3860_825f701db8b942eca288120f443c53ae.pdf · Nieswiadomy, M.L, Molina, D.J. (1989). Comparing Residential Water Estimates Under Decreasing

����� ������� �!�"! ����#$! ��� / %��&'() 8I

J� ��$0�3< %&�$ !�/ (����a+:

1

SQ

10

n

1ii

ii

i

><β<

∑=

)9(

Qi , !E�� _ e+ ��7+i

Si , !E�� !0� " _ e+ F`���i

βi , !E�� ���@� .@� i (&')*+ 0� 2*&�0 �= g J� ! - .��0��� �& )U ( �� F+�� 4E�� �� J� !�3� �& Q���� _ e+ 25��� � = �& �

(W) ;�+�� � �/E�� ��� � (Qoth)�+ � = �3� $ !E�� N� �0 �� 2� 0 4.�� %&�$ 4(�� �0 2& �+ r� [$ �J ;0'? 2& ! - v �'��� (&')*+ �'� :

LnU= U' = β1Ln(W-Sw)+ β2Ln(Qoth-Soth) )Y(

�� 0� 2�:

U' ,Q���� _ e+ (&')*+ 1*� Sw, �� _ e+ ��7+ F`���

Soth , �/E�� ��� _ e+ ��7+ F`���

W, �� _ e+ ��7+ Qoth , _ e+ ��7+ �/E�� ���)�3� $ !E��(

β2 � β1, (&')*+ 0� �3� $ !E�� � �� ���@� .@� 25��� � = �& �,

θ0 = Sw (1 - α1 ) )C(

θ1 = α1 )P(

θ2 = - α1 Soth

)S(

2��'& �` 2& (3�� (&')*+ %&�$ �� � y���� J� ��(M = PwW + PothQoth)��I��� �& � J� Q�+ u� l��� �J F5� 2& �"�#$ %&�$ 4��� -E 6�0 �'�:

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8� ����� ���� � ���� �����

W = θ0 + θ1 )P

M(

w

+ θ2 )P

P(

w

oth )T(

�� 0� 2�:

W, ����� �� _ e+ �� �"�#$ 0��#+ )B[5+ �+( M, ���� �+�0� �� � 2��'& Q���� _ e+)A��0( Pw , ���� (�` �� �� ���)A��0(

Poth ,���� (�` �3� $ !E��)k��� ��� = Q� � !�@&( (�� !0� " �X��� 0� 2�5� �� 2& 2�'$ .{E�� ,_ e+ !�"�#$ 4! - v �'��� (&')*+ %&�$ 0� J� Q����

��[� 4(�� ([+ !� & >JE F`��� J� �& E�� /Qi>Si , ��� &��& , � � M>ΣPiSi Q0�'�/

0� ` &(�� .���H �, ���& 0� ` & ���& 7� (&')*+ %&�$ �� � y���� !� & �=�� � � .F� Q�0 �'d !�/ � � 4���& 0� ` & >JE 2��� � � 2*#� / 0� Q�- / 4(�� � = 2& ea�+ (&')*+ !J�� y����

2�'��H)�=�� (�'& �/�'� 0� ` & 7�. '��� (&')*+ %&�$ ;�"� I+ 2& 2�'$ �& Q�+� (�� 2& !�"�#$ %&�$ 0� ! - v �θ0 �θ1 !�0��

� (3y+ (+x<θ2(�� �I�+ (+x< !�0�� , R���� 4�+�0� ;� j$ 2& (3�� �� !�"�#$ 25��� ��[� �+ ��� �I�+ F�[�� �5< �/E�� ��� (�` ;� j$ � �� (�` ;� j$ 2& (3�� � (3y+ �/�.

&�$ 2�'$ B��� ;�5� 2)�� J� �'��� (&')*+ %&�$ J� F?�� !�"�#$ %w 2�'$ �& 2� (�� ��� ! - �+ R/��� c'"'+ 2& �+ A����� 2� �0 ! ��� !0� " j�+ ��'$ ! - F5� � �"�#$ %&�$ ���0 0� ��0

� � %&�$ �0�� ���& 2���� R#� �� .(##� 0� ,(�� �m� _�*[�� {x+�� %&�$ ��� . V���� J� Q��I��� �& ;�[��*+�+ F?�� 2X�� ��� 0'� u0�� � F��� 0� 2�= - ;0'? 2�0� 4!'� !�/ j�+ 2� �'�

� �-��0�& ��7+ 4�3�� (&'g0 4;0� � ... N� � � �� !�"�#$ �[$ 0� 2� ����/ �)+�'< 2)�� J�

����/ H�+ Q���� _ e+ . ;0'? 0� ���� 0� `*WS) Temp.KSS W

*W += ( !�� 2& 4WS

0� =��+� �/�'� 0� �J ;0'? 2& ����� �� !�"�#$ (&')*+ !J�� y���� ���:

W = θ0' + θ1 )P

M(

w

+ θ2 )P

P(

w

oth + θ3 Temp )Z(

K)1( 13 α−=θ )\(

Temp , ;0� � 2�0�

Page 13: پژويان - atuijer.atu.ac.ir/article_3860_825f701db8b942eca288120f443c53ae.pdf · Nieswiadomy, M.L, Molina, D.J. (1989). Comparing Residential Water Estimates Under Decreasing

����� ������� �!�"! ����#$! ��� / %��&'() 8*

K , � Hf$ B� "�� _ e+ F`��� !�0 & ;0� � 2�0

��� &��& , !'��� !�"�#$ �X����e�`� �J ;0'? 2& ����� ���+ 1� e$ �'�:

W = θ0' + θ1 )P

M(

w

+ θ2 )P

P(

w

oth + θ3 Temp + ε )U:(

� . ������ ��

�� !�"�#$ !'��� �0�� & 0� 2� �X�� J� 4(�� Q�� Q��I��� ���+J ! � !�/ Q��� J� �� @$ @� �����(�� Q�� ��0 & � 2�= - 0� ` W� �+ �/ j�+ �����3�� ./ � ������ c'"'+ . 0�R/��� "�� , N� J�

!0�� & 1"'$ �'� !'���Q� � Q��I��� 2���3�� ./ .�� ,� �J , 2& !�` R� �/'��� J� 2��� ��� 0� 2*&�0 �[$ 0'W�+��� A��<� ��0 & �0'+ !�/ j�+ �& ��)< �'� . 1"'$ �'� !�/'��� �-��� ���

�����3�� ./ !�}= 0� '��� kl$ 2& ������ N�� 4!0�� &��+ ��� .��z�/ , c'"'+ 2� �X�� J� F)a$ 4(�� ;�3H �& !0��=0 �= e+ 0��=0 � Q�'& �� !� & Q���� _ e+ 0��=0 F)a$ 42��#+ ���

� ;�+��)&(��� !� & � �0�� ! �& (�/� B$� + 2& !0�7- . !�/E�� !� & �= e+ 0��=0 ;�3H(�� $ 8'�a+ !0� " .� �J , �= e+ 0��=0 �-��� 2& Q���� _ e+)_ e+ !'��� ( j$ �0 �'�

��� �/�. !'��� 4� � ./�'� �0�� & 2� ;�+ ��)& !'���)CwU:(�'& �/�'� !�/ j�+ F+�� 4 2� 4 �� �J(:

Waterp , �� @$ @� 0� �� 2�� � _ e+ .X�]4� � ;0�J� ����� �x"�= � �� (� � 2+��0���� @$[,

Cpit76, ��� @$ Q���� _ e+ (�` k��� 2��� A�� 2&UYTS] !0'@�� !7� + N��& �+x�� �� ��[,

Pw76, 2��� A�� 2& �� @$ 0� �� (�` k��� UYTS]0'@�� !7� + N��&�+x�� ! �� ��[, Yteh, ��� @$ !�/0�'��� �+�0� ��'�+ ]�� �� 0�+� 7� +[,

Atemp , �� @$ @� 2����� ;0� � 2�0� ��'�+]�� @$ ����� ������'/ ��+J��[,

Dum73, (�` 2��5$ 2& �'& + !J�X+ j�+ ,

1. Cointegrating Space.

Page 14: پژويان - atuijer.atu.ac.ir/article_3860_825f701db8b942eca288120f443c53ae.pdf · Nieswiadomy, M.L, Molina, D.J. (1989). Comparing Residential Water Estimates Under Decreasing

)9 ����� ���� � ���� �����

Dum65, � _ e+ ���7� ���0 j$ 2& �'& + !J�X+ j�+ A�� 0� �� 2��UYSP.�

;�e�l+ ��� kl+ �& �+ 4Q��I��� �0'+ !�/ j�+ � '��� .�J�� O& �0�� & 2& .��'$ . ��� 0����&� 2)� + , '��� !�/ j�+ ��'& �[�� 23$ +�O� � , � '��� 0�����2I`� ���[$ 2�@& !�/ kl+

�+ ��'� . 4>'� >�- 0� !�/0�� & ���[$�����3�� ./ ���(��@� 0� � Q�� �[$ ', A��<� �& �0'+ �'` W��+ �0�� & '��� ;�+��)& B�� " 4 ��'� .

8,(. =�2! ����@A#� ��=� �1&D �J��� K@@1�

���l�2)� + 4��� !�/ j�+ ��'& �[�� 23$ + �[$ J� & >�< J� ����g� � ��0 & 0'W�+ 2& 4'(�� ���� �'� -0 .0'W�+ ��� 2& ,2�0� ���& .�� kl+ � .�� ��0 & �0 �/ j�+ ��'& �[��

�0�� �'�� '��� !�/ j�+ �& ������ 2*&�0 ��� 2� . >'� + J� �'+J� �� $ �/� 42�+J ��� 0� �'+J��5�w �'= 2�=�� .�[$�(ADF) (�� . >�X�� 2X��

��� W� �0'+ !�/ j�+ !� & �'+J��+��$ 2� ��� ��� 7� 2& �/ j�+Yteh �� �[�� 23$ + !�0�� 4 j�+ � Q�'&Yteh (�� I? �[�� 23$ + !�0�� . !�/ j�+ �'��)9(I ��5+� 4'��� !�/ j�+ �&

��� �I� �0 �/ j�+ �& ���� 2*&�0 N� ��0�� (�� 2& �'�� ��� �& 4��� , 2� ����/'� A'�[+ 6�0 !�/ j�+ !� &):(I � )U(I��� 4(�� Q�� ��� g ���'$ !�/ j�+ J� �0 ������ !�/0�� & )9(I 2]�0�

��� .2z���d !�0�'+ ��d 0� , �<'� 2& ���& 4.�� Q��I��� �'���/'� A'�[+ 6�0 J� ./�'l& !�/ j�+)9(I 2& �0 )U(I .�� F��3$ . 2*&�0 0� Q�� 1� e$ !�"�#$ %&�$ 2& 2�'$ �&)U:( !�/ j�+ 4

��/�'� ;0�3< '��� 0� Q��I��� �0'+J� �'& : Waterp=(Water/Pop) , 2�� � ��)�� @$ @� ([�� 2& �= e+ �� F� .�#$(

(Yteh/Pw76) Yteh76 =, �� @$ 0� �� (�` k��� 2& ��� @$ !�/0�'��� �+�0� ��'�+ (3�� ) 2��� A��UYTS(

(Cpit/pw76) Potht =, �� @$ 0� �� (�` k��� 2& ��� @$ Q���� _ e+ (�` k��� (3�� ) 2��� A��UYTS(

� J� �'+J��5�w �'=�+ Q��I��� '��� !�/ j�+ �[�� 23$ + �[$ 0'W�+ 2& 2�=�� .�[$ .��.

� .���� ��� �� ������ �� �� ��� ���� ������ ��� ����� � �� ��� ���� �� ����� !"#$% &

"#'# ������ �� �() ���*� �� ���+� � ,��� � �� -»�� ���� /0� « &»��1�� *�� �23� 45�6 «

�() ���7 8� �� (�� ,:� ���� !*�;� � �<�=� ><5? !*�;� & ����* �23� �;2@ ;AB� >1��C��� � D*� �;).

3. Augmented Dickey – Fuller.

Page 15: پژويان - atuijer.atu.ac.ir/article_3860_825f701db8b942eca288120f443c53ae.pdf · Nieswiadomy, M.L, Molina, D.J. (1989). Comparing Residential Water Estimates Under Decreasing

����� ������� �!�"! ����#$! ��� / %��&'() )(

������ .��� � �� �� ������� ���� �������� ���� �!��� "����

23$ + ��'& �[�� Q0�+�t�'�� N+ 1*� 0�\P �?0�

)\:�?0� ( �5�� Q0�+�w �'= j�+

I(1) \S/Uw) S9/Uw( UZ/9w Potht76

I(1) \S/Uw) S9/Uw( :\/9w Yteh76

I(1) \S/Uw) S9/Uw( SS/Uw Waterp

I(1) \S/Uw)S9/Uw( PU/9w Atemp

A��� V���� 8��� &)9( ,./ �/ j�+ >��$ ��f$ �'���/'� 6�0 ! -0�� 2& � Q�'& N� 2�0� J� %��

�+ �'� .

8,: . K@@1� �#��? � =�2! ��>$� �!C1� ��@L� ���

2I`� A'g �� � kl+ 4 W� �0'+ !'��� �0�� & 0� >�� >�` �/ �$ ��'� �0�� '��� 0� ���& 2� (�� �� ��� ;0�3< 2& � ����/ �0�� �0 N�x� ;�?'e� 4�*� ;x�� 2� � � F?�� ����g� ��'�& ,

����+ �& A�+ � %�J'$ !�0�� 42����� ���� ����3�/ ����0�� � I? σ2 ���5� J� F#��+ � Q�'& (�� Q�� %�J'$ .

0'W�+ ���&, !'��� !0�� & 1"'$ �'�� �+ �0�� & �0 W� �0'+ !'��� �& ����+ .�� . �0�� & J� F3`'���42I`� A'g y�� �� �0'+ 0� (�� >JE .�7& ���� '��� 0� �'�'+ !�/ . (3�� ���[$ 2& 2�'$ �&

/�+ .��Q 4�/2I`� ���[$ y���� Y W� 0��+ 2�= - �'� !'��� �0�� & J� �� �$ 4 4!0�� & 1"'$ �'�2I`� ���[$ �[$ !0�+� �&�'" 8��� & B���+ �'� . !'��� !0�� & 1"'$ �'� F+�� �0�� & �0'+ !�/ j�+Waterp4Yteh76 4Potht76 4Atemp4Dum73 � Dum65(�� . ��� �0�� & V����

A��� 0� '��� �JQ�� 2]�0� (�� .

�����# .��$� ����� "���� %��&' ()��*

1. Vector Auto – regressive.

Page 16: پژويان - atuijer.atu.ac.ir/article_3860_825f701db8b942eca288120f443c53ae.pdf · Nieswiadomy, M.L, Molina, D.J. (1989). Comparing Residential Water Estimates Under Decreasing

): ����� ���� � ���� �����

LL AIC SBC Order) 2I`�( :\/USYw :\/U\Sw ZC/9:Zw Y

\C/USSw \C/U\:w 9U/9::w 9

U:/UZTw U:/9:9w \:/9:Tw U

\:/9C9w \:/9CZw 9U/9PUw :

V���� 2& 2�'$ �& A���)Y( 40�[+AIC / � 0'g ��0�[+SBC ) 2� A'g �[$ 0� {E'�[+ 2I`�

�+ �0 ��'� 2= ? y���� B���+ ���(�+ B���+ �0 2I`� �� 4 ����� .

8,+ . ����!��� �!C1� K@@1���#'�J�! M�

0�2)� + ��� , �& A��� ��.��/ �0 2& �0 .25��� A��, & ���[$ 0�� !�/2���3�� ./ >�� � (�� ��d '��� 25��,��� �3+ J� � < � � ��� 0� �0 ���0 '��� � �� .��X��& . F5+ �& A��� �� ��� 2& ��I- ^��� 2&�0 �0(��� �J 4,� 2& ���� � �'� !� & � >�� A��� ^��� 2& A�� A��� 2& ���� ��'� !� & � 2& >�� A�

.���+J�� A�� A��� ^���. ���/'���@�� �0 ���0 F5+ ��� !� & �+ �� 0� 2� (�� Q� � � A� �� �� / 2& ��'$Q�����

./ 0'g 2& ��� ^��� ��+J .�� 6�0 0� %`�� 0�, � ���0 j�+ � ��3+ J� � < �� � �0�� >�7� �0'+ 0� !�/0�� & ���[$2���3�� ././ 0'g 2& .�e$ ��+J �+ ! - �'� .���&� 2� (�� ;0'? ���& �� 6�0,

r)�l+ !'��� V�� / �0�� & �0 ���0 � ��3+ J� � < ����� W� J� �+ .��. 4�/'��� ��� �0�� & J� �����&�, 0�� & I? �'�� � = 2���3�� ./+ J� B$ $ 2& �@�� 0� �0 # (��� �� $� ) (���U ( �$

+��#(��� �� $�)(���P( �'+J��+ .��. & -� �'+J� !�/0�+� ��� a& ���#+ 8��� H�� y���� � Q��� 0��#+��� �0 � = ��� 0�� & N� �'�� � = 0�& ��� 4�����3�� ././ J�& �0 4+ J� # (��� �� $�

+�� �$#�+ �'+J� (��� �� $� .�� .B$ $ ��/ 2&, !� & �0 �'+J� ��� $E�& !�/ 23$0�+ >�X�� ./� .(��@� 0�,�+ r`'�+ ��`� - 0� ` 6 �m� �0'+ I? 2" = 2� .�'�� . !�/0�� & ���[$ >���/ ��� 0�

2. Trace Statistic. 1. Maximum Eigenvalue.

Page 17: پژويان - atuijer.atu.ac.ir/article_3860_825f701db8b942eca288120f443c53ae.pdf · Nieswiadomy, M.L, Molina, D.J. (1989). Comparing Residential Water Estimates Under Decreasing

����� ������� �!�"! ����#$! ��� / %��&'() )+

2���3�� ./ !�/0�� & ���[$ �� 8��� & 2� ��'��� Q� �/ 2& 2���3�� ./ ;0'? 2& 4(�� Q�� �[$ !�/0�� & ���[$ ��'�< 2& �� N�2���3�� ./ 1a? !'��� � 4�+ ��l��� ��'��.

B$ $ ��� 2& ,�0 J� Q��I��� �& 2���3�� ./ !'��� �[$ 0��+ ��l��� >�� (��� 4����/'� 6 � �'��+ (�� 2& '��� !�/ j�+ �& 2���3�� ./ 0�� & N� �� 8��� & ��� . �& W� �0'+ 2���3�� ./ 0�� &

�'��� !'���0����� v (�� 0�-J�� ! - .� �J ,!'��� 0� Q�� 1� e$ �)< 2*&�0 {E�� �'��� v ! -) H�_ e+ 0��#+ & (�` (�+ �5[�+ �0 B���+ 4>�� !'��� {���H � ��� ���& 2� (�� Q�'& ��'��� �� $

�+ ��l��� �� .(��� ��� 0� � �J , ;�+��)& �&��0 � �0��� �'�� !���0 � ��3+ J� � < ;�+ Q�$'� 0�Q�'& ���0 ���& 7� ,�+� ,����/ ��3+ J� � < ����� 2& �#+ .'��� ��� , 0� 2� _ e+ F`��� >'@I+ �&

')*+ %&�'$�'��� (& v �0�� !���J B���$ 4(�� ���� = ��f$ �0'+ �� J� Q�� u� l��� !�"�#$ � ! - .

����–+ . �,� ����' &� ������� � -�/0� ��12� "���� � ��3�!*� 4� ���� ����� "���� ()��*

)λtrace ( �7)� ���� �89��: ����' �)λmax(

���;H0 ���;*HA ��12�II ��12�III ��12�IV

λtrace

r=0 r>=1 :Y/ZT CY/T\ :S/U:P

r<=1 r>=2 :Y/YZ \Y/9T PC/CZ

r<=2 r>=3 UY/US :\/US YY/9:

λmax r=0 r>=1 \\/CZ P:/CU PU/PS

r<=1 r>=2 Z\/9U ZC/9U 9U/9Z

r<=2 r>=3 UY/US :\/US YY/9:

* ��E�5F� GH� �� I%(J�� .

� .�&� 4B�K ,L�EM 4B�K & ��)�� 4B1� >(� (EN & >(� ���;� �� (�&� & O(2� �� PQ �;?& R(Q , (�&�

()� D* �A��5� �;?& & R&� �?�� ��������� 4B1� ��0�6� ���� � �(E��� �* �(E*�:� . �� 4B�K &� S*�

�� & (�� T5�U��V ���3 ��0�6� ������ ��&� ��;� �� A*� ;AB� �� & 4�A� 8� �� �� ;AB� &� S*� ��;�

��� ��6.

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)� ����� ���� � ���� �����

>JE 4'��� �0�� & J� F3` j�+ B� " J� Q��I��� �& �0 �/ j�+ ��� B� " 2� (�� Q0��� 2&Waterp0�X�@& �� � ./�'� .��z�/ , �J B�� " !�0�� B$ $ 2& b'= !�/ j�+ .�0�� 0�W���

����&�: βYteh76 > 0 βPotht76 < 0 βAtemp > 0

0�� ./�'� (�� 2& �0 �J A��� 4�����3�� ./ 0�� & N� ��� F?�� �&�:

����–< .=���>/ ���� � �� ��2�� ���'�

Waterp Yteh76 Potht76 Atemp Dum 73 Dum 65 ���� �� � �� �

�#/XY XXXX"/X %"$/XY "'I/X ##'/� %#/" 'I�/Z ,[�� ���

"Y XXXX$/X "\"/�Y '%$/X \'/I Z$"/$ �#%/�X ����� ����

�� �����

���/ & J� 2� 2�'-�+ kl+ Q�� 0�X�@& B�� " 0�� �+��$ 4�'� R� �& .�x< ��& 0�-J�� �/

(�� .��z�/ , j�+ B� " ��'& ����Yteh76 (&')*+ %&�$ �)?� F5� �0�� & 2& 2�'$ �& �+ W� 2& �#*�+ 4�� J� !�+�0� R� u� l��� ���'�d � ! - v �'��� ��0 . ��� ��'& ����

B� " ,�& .@� J� ����(�� �� ���� !�+�0� (���� � 0�'��� �+�0� J� �� i��� 0� .A�� , ���&;0'? ��� 0� � (�� � = 2& ea�+ 0�� & ��� ��� 2� �'� kl+ , � !��e�`� �&��0 �& 2*&�0 0�

�+'@I+ 2d ;�+��)& !0����� �+ 2]�0� �0 ���.

1. Normalize.

� . ��� ���� ����"#$%��� & ��@� �� ���� �� �;CJ (�&� ]&) ��� ���� �"#'# (�&� ]&)

�� ^+CE� �� ��1�� *�� 45�6 ���� �� �B&:� (���� . ()� ��1�� *�� � T5+� �*1�� �� �+E*� P� �

*�� 45�6 _��� � �� L*��� ��8��� -��&�� ��5� � �� �@�� ����� _*�:�� -��1�� *�� �23� 45�6 _���&

_*�:�� �� ����� -��1��(�* .

Page 19: پژويان - atuijer.atu.ac.ir/article_3860_825f701db8b942eca288120f443c53ae.pdf · Nieswiadomy, M.L, Molina, D.J. (1989). Comparing Residential Water Estimates Under Decreasing

����� ������� �!�"! ����#$! ��� / %��&'() )8

8,� . H�&N! ����!��� ����� �� �O� ��=� �=@$��#'�J�! M�

�+ �[$ �@�$ ����/'� 6�0 2� �X�� J� ./ !�}= 0� � = 2& ea�+ �����3�� ./ 0�� & ��d 2� ���4�0�� �'�� �����3�� �+ 2X�� �0 ������ 0�� & 4���� !�/0�� & J� �*� B� $ / �= g J� � 4�/�

�+ B]� " J� t�� �'�� / !� & Q�� 2]�0� !�/�0�� & 2� (= - 2X�� ��'$β� 4 � = 2& ea�+ {�+�7�(�� .��� &��& ,4'��� J� u0�� ;�<xg� �� � !��e�`� ! W� ���3+ 8��� & �0 ���/�` (�� >JE &

./ 0�� & B�� " �'� kl+ Q�� 2]�0� ;�+��)& 2*&�0 �$ .�� F�a$ 2���3���. 2& 2�'$ �& j�+ B� " 2& (3�� B�� " ��� �� � 0�X�@&Waterp + ���� 4�+ �0�� '��� 2& 2� ������a �'� ,

(�� j�+ ��� B� " ���� 0� ` N� &� &:

a1 = 1 !�` ��d A��<� )(�� ! - v �'��� A�+ �)?� !'��� & !��f$ A�� �< 0� 2�( 2& �0 �J 0�� & 4(��� �/�'� Q� �/�:

Waterp = 9PS/9: + ::::S/: Yteh76 w UZT/9 Potht76 + TPP/: Atemp

)S\Y/:) (S9U/9) (:::::P/:) (9YC/U9+ (

ZT9/\ Dum73 + CSP/S Dum65

) SSZ/U) (P:Y\/:(

���/ �+ Q�/�+ 2� 2�'- j�+ 4�'�Potht76 � �0�� !�)� R#� ! - v �'��� !'��� 0� 2� j�+Atemp;0� � 2�0� ��'�+ H� 2� ��� �0 �� _ e+ R��7=� 0� 2�E��

�+ ����/ B���+ 0�[+ J� _� a�� �`�= 4�/� . �` 4!�[& >�` 0� �0 ��� J�a4=0 �0�� '��� 2& �0 �+ .��)�+ 0� ` I? &� & �0 2����� ;0� � 2�0� ��'�+ B� " ./�(�.

a1 = 1 & a4 = 0

�+ 2X�� �0 �J 0�� & 4!�` ��d A��<� �/�:

Waterp = %'/## + XXXX'/X Yteh76 Y ZI#/Z Potht76 + �X/"X Dum73 + �X/\ Dum65

) $�$/") (XXXXX\/X) (ZXZ/X ( ) %Z$/X) (Z\'/X(

1. Identified.

� .�� _*�5� � �� ������ �� D* � ���C� �� /�U�� -���M T=�� ��(Q� (���c7.

# .S�Ed5� & 7 e �;��� ;AB� �NJ� �C2� R� ��&� (��f� T�B� � (�6 S�Eg ��5Q� T�B� , R(Q

4�� ��; ,��E� ���C� /�U�� �� ���� S*� ����;=.

)��(

)��(

Page 20: پژويان - atuijer.atu.ac.ir/article_3860_825f701db8b942eca288120f443c53ae.pdf · Nieswiadomy, M.L, Molina, D.J. (1989). Comparing Residential Water Estimates Under Decreasing

)) ����� ���� � ���� �����

�m� �� @$ @� 0� �� ;�+ ��)& !�"�#$ %&�$ ��'�< 2& �0 0�� & ��� !�+�0� � ���` !�/ R� � 2�=

�0�� ./�'� (�� 2& �� !��3+ & �0.

� . �� ���� �� � ������ � ���� ��� ��� ������

B� " ��= - W� 0� �&Yteh76 B� " 4 Potht76 4;�+��)& !'��� �0�� & J� F?�� ��3+ J� � < � �+ 23��a+ �0 !�+�0� � ���` !�/ R� .�� .R� ��� �+ u� l��� �J �&��0 J� �/ ��'�:

Page 21: پژويان - atuijer.atu.ac.ir/article_3860_825f701db8b942eca288120f443c53ae.pdf · Nieswiadomy, M.L, Molina, D.J. (1989). Comparing Residential Water Estimates Under Decreasing

����� ������� �!�"! ����#$! ��� / %��&'() )I

w

w2w

oth22w

1

W

W

W

W

W

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P)]

P

P

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)Q(Ln

Q

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QE

θ−

θ−=

δδ

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=

vM

WPW

M.

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)W(Ln

W

M.

M

WE 1

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θ=

θ=

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δδ=

δδ=

2*#� !�+�0� � ���` Q�� 23��a+ !�/ R� A��� 0� Q0�� ����+ � !�)S ((�� Q�� Q�0��.

������ .���� � ���� ��� ��� �����

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��% Z%w 2*#� R� !� A�� UYT\

��% �� %� Q0�� ����+ R�UYT\ wUYSU

4��0�� �� @$ 0� ����� �� !�"�#$ !�+�0� � ���` ���� R� J� (��5� 2� Q�+� (�� 2& V����

����/ 0�-J�� �)3` ;�[��*+ V���� �& .��z�/ ,�-��� J� �5� 2� �� ��& !�"�#$ %&�$ B���+ !�/'��� (&')*+ %&�$ J� F?���w (�� _ e+ F`��� ��0�� (�� 2& ��5+� ! - .c'"'+ ��� , Q��� 2&

(�� .@+ 0��& �� Fy+ !0� " !�/E�� !� & .�'��� %&�$ �= [+ sa3+ 0� 2� 2z�� 2& 2�'$ �& w ! -�+ (�'@� 2& �'��� '��� !�/ �+�0�� �0�� & 2& 2�'$ �& 4�� 2]�0� !� & ����� �� _ e+ F`��� ��'$

�0 �� @$ @��0�� (�� 2& :

11

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oθ, �& &� & 2� (�� ��3+ J� � < ���/ PT/YY � B[5+ �+ 1θ, &� & � �+�0� j�+ B� " ::::T/:(�� . �� _ e+ F`���)SW ( ���� ��� @$ � = / !� &S/YY B[5+ �+ )YYS:: �� ( 0�

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Page 22: پژويان - atuijer.atu.ac.ir/article_3860_825f701db8b942eca288120f443c53ae.pdf · Nieswiadomy, M.L, Molina, D.J. (1989). Comparing Residential Water Estimates Under Decreasing

�� ����� ���� � ���� �����

A��(�� .B$ $ ��� 2& , 4'��� �0�� & 8��� & ��� @$ ��� @� N� �� _ e+ F`���\9 J�0 0� �� (��.

~ g ���3+ � �&�'" 8��� & �� !�/ ! @� ����0 Q0��� �0�������vY wUUT � (� ��+ ��+J�� 2+�� & F`��� �� _ e+ !'��� 4����� 2�� � _ e+ !�7�� 2& 2�'$ �& 40'� !7�0TP y���� �UP:

(�� Q�� �[$ J�0 0� �� . 2�� � _ e+ ��'�+)�[`�� ( A�� 0� �� @$ @� 0� ��UYT\ 49UP (�� Q�'& J�0 0� ��.

(�` �)[= 6�0 ���& ��& -� 2� (�� ��� _ e+ F`��� 23��a+ !�/� &0�� J� �5� �� !0�m- �� @$ @� 0� �����)���7=� ��')& (�� ��� 2+����+ ���� _ e+ 2)� 4� J� ���'$UP: 2& J�0 0� ��

\9�&�� R/�� ��� @� / !� & J�0 0� �� .

� .��� ���

!� & !0�-J�� �[3$ > = ! - v �'��� (&')*+ %&�$ 4! W� ;�[��*+ � ! W� F)a$ 8��� &�� ������� ����� �� Fy+ !0� " !�/E�� !�"�#$ %&�'$ u� l��� .> = ��� J� ;�[��*+ 0� �[3$

(�� Q�� Q��I��� 0'� u0�� � F��� 0� ����� �� !�"�#$ !� & ��[�+. �+��$ 0� {�3� #$ ;�[��*+Q�� >�X�� , J� ��� � ���� �� !�"�#$ !�+�0� � ���` R� n)*+ 0�`P/:(�� Q�� �0�� & .

0� " 2& �+�0� � (�` ;� j$ 2& (3�� ����� �� !�"�#$ ���� (�����+ & �� ��'& ! �� -. 7� "�� 2[��*+ 0� , ����� �� !�"�#$ %&�$ u� l��� !� & ! - v �'��� (&')*+ �[3$ > = J��� Q��I��� �� @$ @� . 2���3�� ./ !0�� & 1"'$ �'� 6�0 J� Q��I��� �& Q�+� (�� 2& !�"�#$ %&�$

�� �0�� & .2*#� (��� 0� ����� !�"�#$ ���` R� !�)� A�UYT\( 4Z w (��� 0� � �?0� ����+U9w�+� (�� 2& �?0� .(��� 0� ����� �� !�"�#$ !�+�0� R� 2*#� !�/ ����+ � !�

B$ $ 2&UY � �?0� 9:���+� (�� 2& .B$ $ ��� 2& , !�"�#$ !�+�0� � ���` !�/ R� �0�� &��0�-J�� ;�[��*+ ��� V���� �& �� @$ @� ����� �� .3��2� , !� & ����+ !�/ R� J� Q��I���

�+ 2?'$ �& F)a$ ��'� .c'�X+0� , 2[��*+ ���0� �� @$ @� ����� �� !�"�#$ ��'& R� .��+ ��f$ �'� , +� ��� 2� ,�+ 4�� ��'& !0� " & ��7=� ���& �3$ + 7� �� ��'& ��J0� 2& ���'$ . 2X��

�0�� (�� 2& 4�"�#$ %&�$ �0�� & ���(�� ��� @$ ����� @� ����� �� _ e+ F`��� � . ��< ���\9 �0�� 0� ` �� _ e+ �0������� !'��� 2�+�� 0� 2� (�� Q�� 23��a+ ��� @� / !� & J�0 0� ��. &

�+ 4Q�� 23��a+ �� _ e+ F`��� 8��� !�� 2& �0 �� ���� _ e+ 2)� ��'$UP: J�0 0� ��

Page 23: پژويان - atuijer.atu.ac.ir/article_3860_825f701db8b942eca288120f443c53ae.pdf · Nieswiadomy, M.L, Molina, D.J. (1989). Comparing Residential Water Estimates Under Decreasing

����� ������� �!�"! ����#$! ��� / %��&'(� �)

)�)[= (["�( 4\90 0� �� � � �[$ J� .(�` �)[= 6�0 0� �� 2= [$ �[$ 0� 2X�� ��� !0�m-�0�� !���J (�/� 7� ��.

Page 24: پژويان - atuijer.atu.ac.ir/article_3860_825f701db8b942eca288120f443c53ae.pdf · Nieswiadomy, M.L, Molina, D.J. (1989). Comparing Residential Water Estimates Under Decreasing

*+ ����� ���� � ���� �����

���

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����� ��� �� 4���� ,)UYZU .(���! �" �#$%� &� '�� ���()*�+. ���� 4�+x�� ��J� Q����� ;�##a$ � >')< .

��� 4Q�'� � Q��J !��/ � ����0 4n)� 6'�) . Q�+ !�UYZ: .( �� �,�" -�/$0 / �� ��$1�

�$�� �� ��0�2" �#$#3–��$#� ���� �4��5 � � ;0�J� 4�� �� �� %&��+ (� ��+ ��+J�� 4.

�'���/'� 4; &�0) .UYZU .(� �� ���() ���!6�0� -����� 7��$� 8�����. �� 4���� 2�� $ ����� ��� � �� �� �5/J � !0�&� �)+ 2��� 4�')& 4��� � .

>�@�� 4�)I� !��&� .��0 .�� @$ @� 0� ����+J � ����&�$ A'e= 0� �� _ e+ 2���[+ �0�� & . ��#�9

3��� 7��:���� ����+x�� ��J� Q����� 4 !7� + �� @$ ����.

� �0'� �x"�= � �� ����@+ ( . ��;�� /� �$<��+ =��>))@ABB – @ABC ( / �� �4:E

���� �F0�G .

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