NPFC

NPFC

•

• 2015 7 19•

•

2015 9 3 1• 2017

NPFC

NPFC

2015 9 2017

20162017 2

7 2018

122018 4 →

7 2019

8 TF

11

2019 3

4

7 TAC

2017 2 in•• Bayesian State-Space Production Model• 1980 2015

2017 ” ”

2017 ””

2018

2017 12 in

• 15• 4• 5• 1• 5

•

JP_late

JP_earlyCN

KR

RU CT (TW)

JP_biomass

• 1980

•

2018 4 in

------>

1980 CPUE

NPFC

2015 9 2017

20162017 2

7 2018

122018 4 →

7 2019

8 TF

11

2019 3

4

7 TAC

• NPFC

• NPFC

• 11• 1980 CPUE

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••→

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2018 11 in

1994 ←1980 ←• 1980 q

• 1980NPFC-2018-TWG PSSA03-WP11

1 21980 2018

q

1. U(0.1,1)2. 13. U(0.1,3)

CPUE

CN (2013-2017) JP_early (1980-

1993) [Use with assumption of time-varing q]

JP_late (1994-2017) KR (2001-2016) RU (1994-2017) CT (20017-2017)

CN (2013-2017) JP_late (1994-2017) KR (2001-2016) RU (1994-2017) CT (20017-2017)

1. 1CPUE

2. 2CPUE

CPUE

6

CPUE

5Hyper-depletion/stability

b~U(0,1)[b_JPN_early=1] b~U(0,1)

2019 3 in

• →

B ratio F ratio

4Consider further effective management measures for avoiding an increasing trend in the exploitation rate of Pacific saury to sustain biomass.