中国人口老龄化 : 政策发展与长期照护保险 population aging in china: policy...
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中国人口老龄化 : 政策发展与长期照护保险 Population Aging in China: Policy Priorities and LTC Insurance 杜鹏 , 中国人民大学老年学研究所 Du, Peng Institute of Gerontology, Renmin University of China. Outline. Population ageing Policy priorities Long term care insurance. I. Population ageing in China. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
中国人口老龄化 :政策发展与长期照护保险Population Aging in China:
Policy Priorities and LTC Insurance
杜鹏 ,中国人民大学老年学研究所Du, Peng Institute of Gerontology, Renmin University of China
I. Population ageing in China
The latest 2010 China National Population Census gives us a chance to review the ageing process and policies to meet the challenges of population ageing.
The census data proves population ageing in China has been more rapid than expected due to the baby boomers entering the old age and longer life expectancy, there are 178 million elderly population aged 60 and over( account for 13.26%) and 119 million aged 65 and over(8.87%).
9.1
17.4
17.5
17.6
17.7
17.9
18.5
18.9
20.2
20.7
23.2
中国
拉脱维亚
芬兰
奥地利
保加利亚
葡萄牙
瑞典
希腊
意大利
德国
日本
资料来源 : Carl Haub, 2011 World Population Data Sheet.
Oldest countries in the world in 201165 岁及以上人口比例
MigrationThe current 220 million migrant workers contribute the labor force and services to the development of the eastern developed area, but also cause the soaring population ageing in the western rural areas.
Therefore, the top ranking ageing provinces or municipalities is Chongqing and Sichuan, instead of Shanghai and Beijing.
The new national ageing situation calls for new strategies and policies.
National strategy on population
Control the population size around 1.5 billion.
Keep the fertility level around 1.8 in next three decades.
Avoid too high or too low fertility level.
2000- 2100中国老年人口数的变化趋势 年
050100150200250300350400450
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
2046
2051
2056
2061
2066
2071
2076
2081
2086
2091
2096
年份
()
人数百万 60岁
65岁80岁
Population aging in China,2000-2100
Year
Mill
ions
15 10 5 0 5 10 1515 10 5 0 5 10 1515 10 5 0 5 10 15
1950 2000
Male Female Male Female
Age
Sources: World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (2005).
Population pyramid, 1950-2050
80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-90-4
Age
2050
Female
80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-90-4
Male
II. Policy prioritiesLaw, policy and administrative system.
Improvement of social safety net.
Long term care insurance and services.
Social support system for the older adults.
Promoting social participation of elders.
National Strategy Research
In the past three years, China has been conducting the national strategy on ageing research programs;
The key research programs include:
Family planning policy and the support for the elderly, population migration and its impacts on the elderly,
Aging and health,
Economic status of the elderly,
Intergenerational relationship,
Aging and disability,
Aging and culture change,
Age discrimination and age abuse,
Community services for the elderly,
Social participation.
The priorities for review and appraisal include the following five key areas:
The laws and policies on protecting the rights and wellbeing of the elderly,
The social safety net and its adequacy to the elderly,
Long term care needs and insurance system,
The social service system,
Policies and implementation of active ageing and social participation system.
III. Long term care insurance
LTC insurance as the policy direction
Improving population policy and the care
Social support system
Article in the Law on the elderly
Increasing needs of the older persons
Available data
International experiences
Long Term Care 中国老年人分年龄生活不能自理比例 (%)
3.2
5.1
9.2
14.3
25.6
35.6
50.3
60-64岁
65-69岁
70-74岁
75-79岁
80-84岁
85-89岁
90岁以上
Older persons with ADL problems,%
Long Term Care
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
不能自理人数(万人)
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050
年份
4 2004-2050图 中国生活不能自理老年人口预测, 年
女性
男性
Projection of long term care needs
Female
Male
Year
Num
ber i
n 10
,000
Key challenges
Availability of data
Timing of the LTC insurance system
Governmental initiatives
LTC insurance and services
Administration of the LTC funds
Capacity building of care givers