都市發展與住宅可負擔力Urban Development  and Housing Affordability

• GCREC/AsRES*/ 住宅學會 * / 都市計劃學會 / 區域科學學會 / 地區發展學會 理事 (* 理事長 ) •內政部 區域計畫委員•馬來西亞 UTAR( 拉曼大學 ) MBA 國際評委

陳彥仲 (Yen-Jong Chen)yj_chen@mail.ncku.edu.tw特聘教授 •成功大學 都市計劃系•能源科技與策略研究中心 副主任

2015.09.18

東華大學 經濟系

Why Urban?

Market (市 )─ places for goods exchanging City (城 ) ─ Location for Activities and Capital

Cumulation. Society(Union ,” 郊” )

“Dogs don’t have bone bargaining” (by Adam Smith)

─ For administration and ex-/import activities

ThreeEconomic Reasons

Scale Economy ( 規模經濟 )

Agglomeration ( 聚集經濟 )

Comparative Advantage ( 比較利益 )

Urban Development：

1. Urban Growth as like Human Beings---”City Beings”(Shanghai Expo, 2010)---”Urbanity” (as “personality” of human beings)

2. Urban Space Extending ─ due to Industrial Revolution

More efficient Transportation: (bus, truck, train…)

① Higher mobility② Activities diversified③ Factories move outwards of city④ More energy consumption

(esp. Mega-City)

3. Decline in downtown area4. urban renewal /

urban redevelopment/urban revitalization/urban regeneration

5. Globalization (climate, economy, culture,…)/Sustainable City--Hand down the city “alive” to next generation, and next…--Policies of TOD / Low CO2 / Green Living/Environment

protection/Energy Consumption/…

Q: What would happen if urban without planning?

Rethink: Housing Is… ? Life needs…

“Housing is for living”

Architecture… Land use planning Landscape design Space value creating…

Family life and culture… Community

/Organization… Environment protecting… Economic decision of

consumption… …also investment… …

Housing ≠ Real Estate

Housing Researches… Housing needs for households ( 區位、規模、品質… ) Housing and land use control ( 地政、市地重劃 、都市更新 ) Housing market ( 景氣循環、 交易資訊 ) Pricing ( 租金、購屋價格、 PIR 、 affordability) Financing ( 不動產貸款、 REITs 、補貼、以房養老 ) Housing Policies ( 住宅補貼、 國宅、社會住宅 ) Housing and building design ( 智能住宅 , 高齡住宅 ) Housing and transportation (commuting) (MRT, TOD…) Community, Environment, and Energy consumption Urbanization …

7

Housing Affordability

Price 480income 32

P/I 15.1

Price 443income 87P/I 5.07

Price 450income 15P/I 30.1

Price 510income 58P/I 8.8

Price 412income 43P/I 9.6

Taipei

Beijing

Singapore

Tokyo

Seoul2014 PIR by cities ( Asia)

2014 Taipei Tokyo Beijing Singapore Seoul

HousingPrice

480 510 450 443 412

HouseholdIncome

32 58 15 87 43

P/I 15.1 8.8 30.1 5.07 9.6

(in 1,000 US$)

Some Housing Numbers…

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Housing Affordability The household’s maximum price *Y

compare

the expected house priceY

the real house pricerY

no the affordability gap The gap ofhousing affordability

Estimating the probability of the gap

=> affordability risk ?!

*Y Y rYorY rYor

house price

≦ ＜

The Affordability Gap

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Probability of the gap

If ( - ) ＞ 0, then there exists housing affordability risk. Given the probability density function (p.d.f.) of housing price distribution, the probability of the affordability gap can be estimated , as shown in figure.

Y *Y

Y Y

GAP dyyfdyyfPˆ

*

)()(