为什么要了解比特币 why do you need to understand bitcoin

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为什么需要了解特币 usa.lewoer.com 杨硕, 乐窝 CoFounder http://weibo.com/yangshuodesign 微博

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Page 1: 为什么要了解比特币 Why do you need to understand Bitcoin

为什么需要了解⽐比特币

usa.lewoer.com杨硕, 乐窝 CoFounder

http://weibo.com/yangshuodesign微博

Page 2: 为什么要了解比特币 Why do you need to understand Bitcoin

Why another kind of money?

自由市场货币 vs 政府操纵的货币

The Times 03/Jan/2009

第一块比特币区块被挖出来的时候里面包含着这么一行字:

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“It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe they would be

revolution before tomorrow morning.”

– Henry Ford

https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/34770-it-is-well-enough-that-people-of-the-nation-do

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–Thomas Jefferson

“If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency first by inflation then by deflation the banks and

corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent

their Fathers conquered... I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies... The issuing power

should be taken from the banks and restored to the people to whom it properly belongs.”

https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/405594-if-the-american-people-ever-allow-private-banks-to-control

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–  The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed Letter, December 2013, No. 317

“The bitcoin protocol provides an elegant solution to the problem of creating a digital currency—i.e., how to regulate its issue, defeat counterfeiting and double-

spending, and ensure that it can be conveyed safely—without relying on a single authority... It represents a remarkable conceptual and technical achievement,

which may well be used by existing financial institutions (which could issue their own bitcoins) or even by

governments themselves.”

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What is money?

Skip the easy answer

time shifting value and resources space shifting

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The origin of money - Nick Szabo, 2002

金钱的前身,和语言一样用于解决早期人类合作中其他动物所不能解决的问题,比如互惠利他,缓和侵略。

美国原住民⻉贝壳串项链

http://nakamotoinstitute.org/shelling-out/

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The origin of money - Nick Szabo, 2002

收藏品 Collectable

40,000 年前, 鸵⻦鸟蛋壳珠,肯尼亚裂⾕谷,南非

75,000 年前, 螺串珠做成的串珠,南非

30,000 年前⻉贝壳或⽛牙齿做的项链出现在澳洲

生活在饥饿边缘的人,为什么要制作这些东西呢?

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The origin of money - Nick Szabo, 2002

28,000 年前,俄罗斯,每个猛犸象牙可能需要一到两个小时的劳动时间

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进化,合作,和收藏品

"money is a formal token of delayed reciprocal altruism” “钱是延迟互利关系的正式保证”

– Richard Dawkins, 1935

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– The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money,  John Maynard Keynes (凯恩斯), 1935

"For the importance of money essentially flows from its being a link between the present and the future." 

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进化,合作,和收藏品

清洁⻥鱼

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吸血蝙蝠

吸血蝙蝠的捕猎比较难以预测,有时候带回来实物盈余,幸运的蝙蝠们经常会分享它们的成果给不太幸运的。

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如何延迟互利关系呢?

信誉?

面孔?

价值的计量问题

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猴子之间的互利行为

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旧石器时代

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如果河蚌可以是金钱,皮草可以是金钱,黄金可以是金钱,

如果钱不仅仅是硬币或者由政府根据货币法发行的票据, 它可以是多样的的话,那么究竟什么是钱呢?

又为什么常常生活在饥饿边缘的人类,要花那么多时间去享受那些项链,而不是去打猎或者采集呢?

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十九世纪经济学家卡尔·門格尔(Carl Menger)-(奥地利经济

学派创始人) 首次描述了钱是如何自然的,不可避免的从以物易物之中演变出来的。

以物易物

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Page 20: 为什么要了解比特币 Why do you need to understand Bitcoin

以物易物需要供应,喜好,时间和交易成本等等因素的巧合。以物易物当然比没有交易更好,但和钱交易来比,就差

很多。

“收藏品” - 储存和转移财富的媒介

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交易几乎总是使双方都受益的。交易行为本身的创造的价值不亚于制作实际东西的价值。

!因为每个人都有不同的喜好和能力,在交易中总是能够有所收获的。

!所以降低交易成本有利于自由交易。家族的传家宝可以用来做延迟交易的抵押品。

财富转移过程中的收益

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The origin of money - Nick Szabo, 2002

库拉圈 Kula Ring

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kula_ring

美拉尼西亚(西南太平洋群岛)

项链顺时针流通,⼿手链逆时针流通,

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食物交换收藏品以便延迟互惠关系

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交易的成本高 不同的部落往往是相互敌对

旧石器时代,收藏品的出现使得小范围内有价值的交易成为可能

Page 25: 为什么要了解比特币 Why do you need to understand Bitcoin

打火石,斧头,皮毛 作为交易的媒介

Page 26: 为什么要了解比特币 Why do you need to understand Bitcoin

打火石,斧头,皮毛 作为交易的媒介

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捕猎专攻

季节性

Page 28: 为什么要了解比特币 Why do you need to understand Bitcoin

捕猎专攻

部落A 部落B

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互补的部落进行交易的好处

部落A 部落B

1. 饥饿情况下有备⽤用的可以交换的食物资源

2. 总共⾷食物的数量的增加,他们把吃不完的剩余的⾷食物进⾏行可以交易,否则就会被浪费。

3. 不同食物提供多样的营养。

4. 在单个部落中由于专攻一个技能而提高捕猎效率。

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互补的部落进行交易的好处

在人类⻓长期的史前文明阶段,交易不是唯一的财富转移方法,也可能不是最重要的方法,因为交易的成本高昂。

我们现在要转向到一个最基本的财富转移方法,这个办法我们人类认为是理所当然的,但是其他动物是没有的。––将财富转移到下一代。

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亲属之间的利他⾏行为

• 满⾜足⼀一个交易需要的时间和地点的巧合⾮非常少。

• 大型事件:比如结婚,生

子,战争胜利,或死亡。

• 部落和个体在这种大型事

件的集会中通过财富转移

能获得巨大的好处。

• 传家宝

Page 32: 为什么要了解比特币 Why do you need to understand Bitcoin

战争的战利品

!

• 历史上部落之间征战⽆无数,通过杀戮,残杀,强取豪夺来占领物品。

• Lydia( 吕底亚),是3300年前濒临爱琴海一古国 是第一个拥有完善市场和货币的民

族。

• 从此政府开始铸币。有人会问为什么是政府铸币,而不是私人的银行家为自己的利益来

铸币呢?这主要是因为政府比私人银行家更有能力打击假冒的货币,维护真币的流通。

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收藏品的交易比最初直接物物交易促进人类合作,因为人们相互之间互助互惠被收藏

品金钱化了,一般收藏品具有以下特点:

1)易携带易隐藏

2)难以被伪造

3)其价值可以通过简单观察和度量来验证。

收藏品的属性

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原始货币并不是我们今天看到的货币,它更多是类似传家宝,珠宝和其他收藏品。

对原始货币的利⽤用不外乎去挖掘,积累,展⽰示,储存它本⾝身价值,储存的⾏行为是基于⼈人天性中喜欢收藏的本能。

用于交易的收藏品不断变化,从原材料,⻉贝壳,牙齿到之后制造生产出来的收藏品都

体现现代人类积累资源的变化和扩张。

货币起源的总结

Shell money from Sumer, c. 3,000 B.C.

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How money is created now

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Hidden Secrets Of Money

- Mike Maloney “Hidden Secrets Of Money”http://youtu.be/iFDe5kUUyT0?t=6m21s

http://youtu.be/iFDe5kUUyT0?t=18m54s

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Money creation in the modern economy - Bank of England

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/quarterlybulletin/2014/qb14q1prereleasemoneycreation.pdf

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货币基数(Monetary Base) = 银⾏行持有的库存现⾦金 + 银⾏行外流通中的现⾦金

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetary_base

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― Richard Buckminster Fuller

“You never change things by fighting the existing reality.

To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete.”

http://www.goodreads.com/author/quotes/165737.Richard_Buckminster_Fuller

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6MnQJFEVY7s

– Milton Friedman 1999

“One thing that’s missing but will soon be developed is a reliable e-cash, a method whereby on the Internet you can transfer funds from A to B without A knowing B or B knowing A – the way I can take a $20 bill and hand it over

to you, and you may get that without knowing who I am.”

Page 43: 为什么要了解比特币 Why do you need to understand Bitcoin

– Richard Feynman

“The difference between knowing the name of something and knowing something.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=05WS0WN7zMQ

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What is Bitcoin

本文提出了一种完全通过点对点技术实现的电子现金系统,它使得在线支付能够直接由一方发起并支付给另外一方,中间不需要通过任何的金融机构。虽然数字签名(Digital signatures)部分解决了这个问题,但是如果仍然需要第三方的支持才能防

止双重支付(double-spending)的话,那么这种系统也就失去了存在的价值。我们在此提出一种解决方案,

使现金系统在点对点的环境下运行,并防止双重支付问题。该网络通过随机散列(hashing)对全部交易加上

时间戳(timestamps),将它们合并入一个不断延伸的基于随机散列的工作量证明(proof-of-work)的链条作为交易记录,除非重新完成全部的工作量证明,形成的交易记录将不可更改。最⻓长的链条不仅将作为被观察到的事件序列(sequence)的证明,而且被看做是来自CPU计算能⼒力最⼤大的池(pool)。只要大多数的CPU计算能⼒力都没有打算合作起来对全⺴⽹网进⾏行攻击,那么诚实的节点将会⽣生成最⻓长的、超过攻击者的链条。这个系统本⾝身需要的基础设施⾮非常少。信息尽最⼤大努⼒力在全⺴⽹网传播即可,节点(nodes)可以随时离开和重新加入网络,并将最⻓长的工作量证明链条作为在该节点离线期间发生的交易的证明。

https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r2704tWyz6I

Bitcoin made simple – video animation - theguardian

http://www.theguardian.com/news/video/2014/apr/30/bitcoin-made-simple-video-animation

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How does Bitcoin protocol work? 

第一步:签了名的意向书

http://blog.shuoyangdesign.com/?p=902

“我Alice要给Bob一个infocoin”

+ 数字签名(私钥)

Page 47: 为什么要了解比特币 Why do you need to understand Bitcoin

问题:重复地给发送同一个签了名的消息

http://blog.shuoyangdesign.com/?p=902

“我,Alice,要给Bob一个infocoin”

“我,Alice,要给Bob一个infocoin”

“我,Alice,要给Bob一个infocoin”

“我,Alice,要给Bob一个infocoin”

“我,Alice,要给Bob一个infocoin”

“我,Alice,要给Bob一个infocoin”

“我,Alice,要给Bob一个infocoin”

“我,Alice,要给Bob一个infocoin”

“我,Alice,要给Bob一个infocoin”

“我,Alice,要给Bob一个infocoin”

这是说Alice给Bob了10个不同的infocoin呢?还是Alice给Bob一个infocoin,只

是不小心消息重复了?

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第二步:用序列号来给货币一个独一无二的标识

• 我Alice要给Bob一个序列号为1234567的infocoin

• Bob 收到Alice的信息之后,需要验证两个事情

1,序列号1234567的那个币确实是属于Alice的

2, Alice还没有花掉那个币

• “序列号从哪里来”的问题 - (可信任的中央机构-银⾏行)

http://blog.shuoyangdesign.com/?p=902

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第三步:让每个⼈人成为银⾏行

• 剔除掉银⾏行机构

• 假设每个用infocoin的人保存一份完整的记录(公开的记账本),包

括哪个infocoin属于哪个人,也记录了所有的交易记录。可以把它叫

做“blockchain”

• Bob 可以用自己的blockchain 去验证Alice的交易信息。如果他验证通过了,那么他就把自己接受这个交易的消息公布给全网络,让所有人更新自己的blockchain

http://blog.shuoyangdesign.com/?p=902

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Double Spending 问题

“我Alice要给Bob一个infocoin 1234567”

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Double Spending 问题

“我Alice要给Bob一个infocoin 1234567”

“我Alice要给David一个infocoin 1234567”

验证通过

验证通过

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第四步:解决Double Spending问题

• 当Alice给Bob发送infocoin的时候,Bob不应该独自的检验这个交易。而将这个可待定

的交易公布到整个infocoin网络里,让其他人帮忙判断这个交易是否合理。

• 如果足够的人决定这个交易是合理的,那么Bob可以去接受这个infocoin,然后所有人

更新他们的blockchain。

http://blog.shuoyangdesign.com/?p=902

“…”待验证

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问题:Alice 可以有一大群⻢马甲,发布虚假验证消息

http://blog.shuoyangdesign.com/?p=902

假设Alice想要在上述的协议中双花,他需要掌管整个的infocoin网络。假设她用一个自动的系统在infocoin网

络上建立很多个不同身份的账户,假设有10亿个。

和之前一样,她试图进行双花,将同样的infocoin给Bob和David,但是当Bob和David询问infocoin网络的来检

验这个交易时,Alice的⻢马甲们淹没整个网络,告诉Bob和Charlie他们可以通过这个交易,并且可能欺骗他们

其中一个或者两个人都接受这个交易。

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第五步:工作证明 Proof-of-work

1. 人工的让检验交易的过程花费较大的计算成本

2. 奖赏他们帮忙检验这个交易

http://blog.shuoyangdesign.com/?p=902

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我Tom要给Sue一个序列号为1201174的infocoin。 !我Sydney要给Cynthia一个序列号为1295618的infocoin。 !我Alice要给Bob一个序列号为1234567的infocoin。 ……

Block

David

待验证的交易

SHA-256哈希函数

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Mining(挖矿)

• 最开始的时候,是50个比特币的奖励。但是每格21万个验证的区块(大概每4年),奖励会减半。现在为止只发生了一次,现在验证一个block获得的奖励是25个比特币。 减半会持续发生,直到大概2140

年。

• 可以将工作证明(proof-of-work)看做一个竞相验证交易的过程。

previous block hash + transactions hash + nonce(unknown)

Hash 1312af178c253f84028d480a6adc1e25e81caa44c749ec81976192e2ec934c64

Result need to start with a certain number of Zeros 00000000000000002e0af2a8c92696a5f1146a9557369dfd9468a98b1dad6e06

https://blockexplorer.com/block/0000000000000000042aed1324cf6322521fa56c47f26d31967439139b0b1795

“Bitcoin mining the hard way” http://www.righto.com/2014/02/bitcoin-mining-hard-way-algorithms.html

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new block 2 hash

Hash of current

block’s TXsNonce 3

new block 1 hash

Hash of current

block’s TXsNonce 2

previous block hash

Hash of current

block’s TXsNonce 1

new block 3 hash

Hash of current

block’s TXs

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每一个block都包含着指向上一个block的指针。

有时候一个blockchain上会产生分支。这种情况是因为,有时候两个挖矿者几乎同时验证出来一个区块的交易。

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他们同时公布到网络里,有些人用一个方法更新他们的blockchain,另一些人用另外一个方法更新他们的blockchain。

6个确认

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What could it possibly do?

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What could it possibly do?

• Internet is not just faster telegram

• Email is not just faster mail

• Bitcoin It’s not just money

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• 一个信息同步的协议,可以在整个网络内精确的验证数据,不需要一个中央权威控制。

• Blockchain数据是公开的并且全世界任何人都可以获得

• Blockchain作为一个巨大的会计账本,允许存贮和转移信息

• 可以作为全世界的公共记录,许多潜在价值,不需要中央的控制,比如:Proof of ownership

Page 64: 为什么要了解比特币 Why do you need to understand Bitcoin

Bitcoin as Money

• Script in blockchain made it can be programmable.

• For example: transaction will be executed on a certain date or met certain condition.

• Complex example: Kickstarter

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Bitcoin as Secure Record Keeping !

Bitcoin as Proof of Ownership !

Bitcoin as a Decentralized Stock Exchange

- The Present

- Near Future:

- Future:

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Public payments

He received $25,000 in Bitcoin in the first 24 hours

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Four-sided network effect

(1) consumers who pay with Bitcoin,

(2) merchants who accept Bitcoin,

(3) “miners” who run the computers that process and validate all the transactions and enable the distributed trust network to exist.

(4) developers and entrepreneurs who are building new products and services with and on top of Bitcoin.

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The Myth of Satoshi

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In Nov. 2008, Satooshi published a paper on The Cryptography Mailing list

http://www.mail-archive.com/cryptography%40metzdowd.com/msg09959.html

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What Did Nick Szabo Say?

From“Myself, Wei Dai, and Hal Finney were the only people I know of who liked the idea (or in Dai's case his related idea) enough to pursue it to any significant extent until Nakamoto

(assuming Nakamoto is not really Finney or Dai). Only Finney (RPOW) and Nakamoto were motivated enough to

actually implement such a scheme.”

http://unenumerated.blogspot.com/2011/05/bitcoin-what-took-ye-so-long.html

– Nick Szabo

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What Did Wei Dai Say?

“Two reasons, One: in Satoshi’s early emails to me he was apparently unaware of Nick Szabo’s ideas and talks about how bitcoin ‘expands on your ideas into a complete working system’ and ‘it achieves nearly all the goals you set out to solve in your b-money paper’. I can’t see

why, if Nick was Satoshi, he would say things like that to me in private. And, two: Nick isn’t known for being a C++ programmer.”

http://www.gwern.net/docs/2008-nakamoto

– Wei Dai

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Dai/Nakamoto emails

“Nick considers his ideas to be at least an independent invention from b-money so why would Satoshi say “expands

on your ideas into a complete working system” to me, and cite b-money but not Bit Gold in his paper, if Satoshi was Nick? An

additional reason that I haven’t mentioned previously is that Satoshi’s writings just don’t read like Nick’s to me.”

www.gwern.net http://www.gwern.net/docs/2008-nakamoto

– Wei Dai

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Bitcoin and me (Hal Finney)

I had long been interested in cryptographic payment schemes. Plus I was lucky enough to meet and extensively correspond with both Wei Dai and Nick Szabo,

generally acknowledged to have created ideas that would be realized with Bitcoin. I had made an attempt to create my own proof of work based currency, called RPOW.

So I found Bitcoin fascinating. !

Today, Satoshi's true identity has become a mystery. But at the time, I thought I was dealing with a young man of Japanese ancestry who was very smart and sincere. I've

had the good fortune to know many brilliant people over the course of my life, so I recognize the signs.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=155054.msg1643833#msg1643833

– Hal Finney

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MT Gox Dead

1. The Bitcoin ecosystem is growing up.

2. Haters gonna hate

3. Antifragile.

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How Does Mass Media View It? 

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 法制晚报 - 比特币玩家何弃疗 

“玩家许先生从2005年入手比特币,2008年开始正式投身比特币市场, 今年年初刚刚抽身,“2美元一个币都没人要的时候我经历过,1000美元一个币的辉煌我也经历过。但最终是500万入市200万抽身,到现在还欠了一屁股债。””

 (央行通知)-“为保护社会公众的财产权益”

网易 - 揭示比特币注定失败的真正原因http://money.163.com/14/0317/09/9NHGD7UI00253G87.html

http://www.fawan.com/Article/jj/2014/05/13/142240240937.html

网易财经 - 比特币之父中本聪现身:已经和比特币没关系了163.fm/Gu43qWk

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Bitcoin Is Dead — Long Live Bitcoin - March 23, 2014 https://news.vice.com/article/bitcoin-is-dead-long-live-bitcoin

Bitcoin CEO found dead in Singapore, suicide suspected - March 06, 2014 https://news.vice.com/article/bitcoin-is-dead-long-live-bitcoin

The Face Behind Bitcoin - March 06, 2014 http://www.newsweek.com/2014/03/14/face-behind-bitcoin-247957.html#

The Antisocial Network - Paul Krugman - April 14, 2013 The fruitless search for dehumanized money. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/15/opinion/krugman-the-antisocial-network.html?_r=0

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Bitcoin in Argentina, a Match Made in Heaven? http://www.economist.com/blogs/schumpeter/2014/06/bitcoin-argentina

Bitcoin For the Poor: Cash Transfers in Africa http://www.economist.com/blogs/baobab/2014/06/cash-transfers-africa

Wall Street welcomes Bitcoin in 2014: SecondMarket CEO http://www.cnbc.com/id/101750918

Digital money: The Bitcoin bubble | The Economist http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21590901-it-looks-overvalued-even-if-digital-currency-crashes-others-will-follow-bitcoin

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“A scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather

because its opponents eventually die and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.”

- ⻢马克思·普朗克《科学自传》

http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Max_Planck

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How does other’s view it.

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– Paul Graham

“I am very intrigued by Bitcoin. It has all the signs. Paradigm shift, hackers love it, yet it’s derided as a toy.

Just like microcomputers.”

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5402513

“Truly innovative ideas often look like bad ideas at the time”

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– Marc Andreessen

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000279168

Personal computers in 1975, the Internet in 1993, and – I believe – Bitcoin in 2014.

In 20 years, we’ll talk about Bitcoin like we talk about the Internet today

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– Fred Wilson

“Bitcoin is still very much a fringe thing […] But I like to pay attention to the jokes, the laughing

stocks, because occasionally they get the last laugh”

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Can Do vs. Can’t Do Cultures

http://www.bhorowitz.com/can_do_vs_cant_do_cultures

- Ben Horowitz

“The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore, all

progress depends on the unreasonable man.”

- -George Bernard Shaw

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Critics of The Computer

“The Analytical Engine”

the world’s first general-purpose computer

In 1837, Charles Babbage

In 1842 英国一个数学家George Biddel Airy

建议英国财政部说Analytical Engine是没有用

的, Babbage的项目应该被放弃。

!政府砍掉了这个项目,被世界忘掉,整个世界直到花了将近100年,直到1941年才赶上

Babbage的最早的想法。

Source:Can Do vs. Can’t Do Cultures http://www.bhorowitz.com/can_do_vs_cant_do_cultures

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Critics of The Telephone

Alexander Graham Bell

In 1876, ⻉贝尔发明电话之后,他要把这个发明卖给Western Union, $100,000. Western Union拒绝了

“The Telephone purports to transmit the speaking voice over telegraph wires. We found that the voice is very weak and indistinct, and grows even weaker when long wires are used between the transmitter and receiver. Technically, we do not see that this device will be ever capable of sending recognizable speech over a distance of several miles. ”

Source:Can Do vs. Can’t Do Cultures http://www.bhorowitz.com/can_do_vs_cant_do_cultures

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Critics of The Telephone

Alexander Graham Bell

“Messer Hubbard and Bell want to install one of their “telephone devices” in every city. The idea is idiotic on the face of it. !Furthermore, why would any person want to use this ungainly and impractical device when he can send a messenger to the telegraph office and have a clear written message sent to any large city in the United States?”

Source:Can Do vs. Can’t Do Cultures http://www.bhorowitz.com/can_do_vs_cant_do_cultures

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Critics of The Internet

“Then there’s cyberbusiness. We’re promised instant catalog shopping—just point and click for great deals. We’ll order airline tickets over the network, make restaurant reservations and negotiate sales contracts. Stores will become obselete. So how come my local mall does more business in an afternoon than the entire Internet handles in a month? Even if there were a trustworthy way to send money over the Internet—which there isn’t—the network is missing a most essential ingredient of capitalism: salespeople.”

Why the Web Won’t Be Nirvana in Newsweek

Source:Can Do vs. Can’t Do Cultures http://www.bhorowitz.com/can_do_vs_cant_do_cultures

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http://www.bhorowitz.com/can_do_vs_cant_do_cultures

- Ben Horowitz

“这些批评的共同点是,他们都关注于新的技术在当时不能够做到的事,⽽而不是能做到的或将来能做到的,

这是否定者(naysayers)通常犯的错误”

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• 2014: $1.2 Billion Funding Round At A $17 Billion Valuation • http://techcrunch.com/2014/06/06/uber-1-2b/

• 2011: Raises $11 million From Benchmark Capital • http://techcrunch.com/2011/02/14/huge-vote-of-confidence-uber-raises-11-million-from-benchmark-

capital/

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"As someone who has been in the car service business his whole life, a valuation that high is asking for trouble.”

“I wish them luck; however, it is a very mom and pop industry and you will be lucky to just make a living.”

"If Uber becomes the most successful [car service company] out there, you are not looking at a billion dollar company by any means."

http://techcrunch.com/2011/02/14/huge-vote-of-confidence-uber-raises-11-million-from-benchmark-capital/

2011 Comments on Techcrunch

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"I don't know of any competitive advantage Uber has over Carey or Boston Coach...which can launch similar technology in matter of weeks.”

"I'm looking forward to seeing if Uber is actually successful outside of San Francisco.”

"Wow, $11 million for a company that is equivalent to calling a taxi! Why didn't I think of that!”

"I'm surprised. Is Uber in the clear yet legally? Seems like they could still be shut down any day."

http://techcrunch.com/2011/02/14/huge-vote-of-confidence-uber-raises-11-million-from-benchmark-capital/

2011 Comments on Techcrunch

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Adoption CurveGeoffrey Moore

Adoption Today

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Adoption CurveGeoffrey Moore

Mainstream Adoption

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How can you view it.

• Alan Kay: IQ < Knowledge < Outlook.

• “If you don’t believe me or don’t get it, I don’t have time to try to convince you, sorry.” - Satoshi

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Problem: “I don’t understand it”

Satoshi Nakamoto 2010

“Like the internet, bicycles, and many financial instruments, both airplanes and Bitcoin rely on ideas

that few in the world understand fully”

Wright Brothers

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Problem: “危险”

Satoshi Nakamoto 2010

“Like the internet, bicycles, and many financial instruments, both airplanes and Bitcoin rely on ideas

that few in the world understand fully”

Wright Brothers

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Bitcoin Myths

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Myth: Educated economists think Bitcoin is a load of rubbish and going no where

• 2007: Steve Ballmer, “There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share.”

• 2010: Why Tesla Is the Next Webvan • http://www.thestreet.com/story/10838464/2/why-tesla-is-the-next-webvan.html

• 2011: How Dropbox Will Die • http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidcoursey/2011/10/18/how-dropbox-will-die/

• 2013: FINANCE PROFESSOR: Bitcoin Will Crash To $10 By Mid-2014 • http://www.businessinsider.com/williams-bitcoin-meltdown-10-2013-12

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Myths

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Myth: Bitcoin is just like all other digital currencies; nothing new

• 几乎所有的其他电子货币都是中央机构控制的,也意味着

• 他们可以由控制者任意发布

• 他们可以被控制着摧毁

• 控制着可以利用控制权投机

• 去中心化的比特币,没有这些问题

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Myth: Bitcoins don't solve any problems that fiat currency and/or gold doesn't solve

• 不像黄金,比特币:易于转移, 易于安全保存,易于验证,易于分拆

• 不像法币,比特币可以预测并且供应量有上限,不由中央集权控制,不是基于债务的

• 不像电子法币系统,比特币:可以匿名,转移更快,转移更便宜

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Myth: Bitcoins are worthless because they aren't backed by anything

• 黄金也没有被什么东西支撑。普遍的一个误解就是这个东西和它的符号象征,固有价值假设的是一个东西的符号背后必须有一个实在的东西。但是钱,不只是符号,就想语言一样,钱也是一种语言,是人们之间交流价值的语言,它背后没有什么实在的东西。

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Myth: Bitcoins have no intrinsic value

• 比特币的价值是它的网络,而不是单个的币。就想电话一样,电话的价值取决于整个电信的网络。如果没有电信网络,电话就是没有用的。

• 同样,单独的比特币的价值取决于整个比特币网络形成的交易媒介。就想电话是通过网络转移声音信息,比特币是通过网络转移价值信息

• 价值最终是取决于供需关系

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Myth: Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme

• 旁氏骗局的创立人说服投资者他们会盈利。但是比特币没有这样的保证。没有中央机构,只是独立个人建立起的经济体系。

• 庞⽒氏骗局是⼀一个零和游戏,在旁⽒氏骗局⾥里,早起投资者只能靠后来的投资⼈人来盈利,后来者总是赔钱的。⽐比特币是双赢的,早起使⽤用者可以从价值的升⾼高中获利,⽽而所有的使⽤用者可以从它的交易系统中获得使⽤用价值。

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Myths

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Myth: Bitcoin is inherently deflationary. Thus less cash for everybody to spend.

8 decimal places. we can simply use smaller units of Bitcoin.

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Myth: Bitcoin is designed for tax evasion.

• 也可以说现金是用来逃税的

• 逃税者通常是因为他们的生活方式和他们的收入资产不匹配,而被发现的。而不是因为政府可以跟踪他们的钱。

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Myth: Early adopters are unfairly rewarded

• Early adopters are rewarded for taking the higher risk with their time and money.

• Arguing that early adopters do not deserve to profit from this is akin to saying that early investors in a company, or people who buy stock at a company IPO (Initial Public Offering), are unfairly rewarded.

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Myth: Bitcoin mining is a waste of energy and harmful for ecology

• 从地里面挖金矿,把它融化,铸成金条也很浪费资源。盖一个巨大的楼,印刷铸造各种各样的法币,转移的时候需要至少两个装备武器的保安。

• 所谓一个交易媒介,比特币和其他货币相比是经济上很节省的。

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Myth: Bitcoins serve as opportunities for criminals and will be shut down

• Visa, MasterCard, PayPal, and cash all serve as opportunities for criminals as well, but society keeps them around due to their recognized net benefit.

• Terrorists fly aircraft into buildings, but the governments have not yet abolished consumer air travel. Obviously the public good outweighs the possible bad in their opinion.

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“some people see the world and ask why, others dream about the world that never before and ask why not.”

- -George Bernard Shaw

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usa.lewoer.comby - 杨硕, 乐窝 CoFounder

http://weibo.com/yangshuodesign微博

http://blog.shuoyangdesign.com/博客