1

2009 지능로봇기술세미나 “지능로봇의 연구 및 교육을 위한 방향 제안”, 한국 NI 개최2009 지능로봇기술세미나 지능로봇의 연구 및 교육을 위한 방향 제안 , 한국 NI 개최

로봇 미래를 말하다로봇, 미래를 말하다.

2009.05.21

© 2009 Kwangwoon University© 2009 Kwangwoon University

Jin-Oh KIM, Ph.D. in Robotics

(jokim@kw.ac.kr)

ROBOTICS는 무엇인가?2

로봇工學

로봇로봇ROBOTICS

로봇空學

로봇科學

로봇로봇돈學

3

Contents

1. What are Robots?

2. Robots: Now and Future

3. Characteristics of Robotics

4. What will make Faster Growth of Robots?

5. Conclusion

4

Joseph Engelberger: Father of Robotics

“I can't define a robot,

but I know one when I see one.”

5

Washing Machine

• Hi all,

I'm interested to hear from people what machines they think should qualify as a robot. Which of the following do you personally consider to be robots?

1. A washing machine.

2. A washing machine with temperature control.

3. A washing machine with a conveyer belt to automatically load/unload.

4 A washing machine with an arm/gripper to automatically load/unload4. A washing machine with an arm/gripper to automatically load/unload.

5. A washing machine which can move around and collect clothes, with an arm/gripper to automatically load/unload.

6 A washing machine which is sentient and can have a conversation with you6. A washing machine which is sentient and can have a conversation with you.

7. A washing machine which is sentient and can have a conversation with you, with an arm/gripper to automatically load/unload.

Many thanks - Hugo

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로봇청소기와 청소로봇

Waste Allocation Load Lifter Earth-Class

지구 폐기물 수거-처리용 로봇

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Definitions of Robot

• Things that move: in CMUThings that move: in CMU• Intelligent motion and force: in a textbook• Mechatronic Interface connecting HumanMechatronic Interface connecting Human

and Task/Environment: defined by me• Most simply, things that sense, think and p y, g ,

act: in a textbook

Th i d fi iti f b t hi h– There is no one definition of robot which satisfies everyone, and many people have their own.

8

Core Technology of Robotics

Perception (Sensing)

Cognition (Intelligence)

Action (Motion)

( )IS Robotics(USA)의 iRobot

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Robot Components

Three Aspects of IntelligenceThree Aspects of Intelligence

(1) High Level of Environment Correspondence

(2) High Level of Task Performing Dexterity

( )(3) High Level of Human Robot Interaction

Control MechanismTaskPerformanceInterfaceHuman

(2)(3)

M

C

Performance

(1)P

M

EnvironmentSensing

Fi El t f R b t I idEnergy

EnvironmentExploration

Five Elements of Robot Insidene gy

Three Elements of Robot Outside

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Robots: now and future

21C, Robots will change our life.

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Industrial Robots Transition New Robots

Industrial Electrical Many new Industrial Personal Professional FieldIndustrial Robots are born

Electrical Motor used in Industrial

Robots

Many new concepts of

Industrial Robots

Industrial Robot

saturation,

Personal Robot are

Personal Service

Robots

Professional Service Robots

No. of

Field Robots

Robotborn Robots ~

No. of Automobiles

Robot Industry ~ Automobile

Industry

Unimation FANUC PUMA Robot Entertainment Building, Construction,

Kawasaki

Yaskawa

Nachi

DDARM

SCARA

Application expands

drastically

Security

Education

Home Service

Hospital, Maintenance of Public Spaces

Military, Agriculture ..

로봇의 역사는 짧지만 발전속도는 빠르다.

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Robots: now and future

1. 20 Year Cycle of Technology Fusion and Application Expansion 1. 20 Year Cycle of Technology Fusion and Application Expansion

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040Interdisciplinar

F iInter-industry Digital

F iDigital

Diff iNew

I t lliNew

I t lliIntegration ith Bi ly Fusion Expansion Fusion Diffusion Intelligence

RevolutionIntelligence

Expansion

with Biology

Mechanical Robot+ Information Robot+ New Electronics

Electrical and

Computer Science

Agriculture

Robot+

Construction

Communication

Energy

Defense

Robot+

Home

Intelligence different

from current intelligence

Robot+

All Industries and Services

Biotech

2. Benefit/Cost > 2 for every 5 years2. Benefit/Cost > 2 for every 5 years

3. Robot labor cost (16 hours/day) < $1.0 now (2007)3. Robot labor cost (16 hours/day) < $1.0 now (2007)( y) ( )( y) ( )

4. New types of robots: 2 times more than last year 4. New types of robots: 2 times more than last year

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People Are Flexible, But More Expensive Every Year

L b t/h

$60

Labor cost/hr

$40

$50 U.S. Automotive

$20

$30 U.S. Electronic

Robot Labor (2 shifts)

$10

$20

Korea

U.S. Food

$01960 1967 1974 1981 1988 1995 2002

China

13

Forecast of Smart Robots (유엔미래포럼)( )

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Market Forecast

15

Toyota의 Personal Mobilityy y

휴머노이드 종합상사16

• “로봇, 미래를 말하다”에서 히로치카 이노우에

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Invisible Robot – 타케오 카나데

Eye Vision: 2001년 아메리칸 풋볼리그 결승전 CBS방송

- 30대의 카메라로봇을 이용한 시간/공간의 4차원 영상 구현30대의 카메라로봇을 이용한 시간/공간의 4차원 영상 구현

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Characteristics of Robots: HRT Systemy

• Necessary to understand Robots as integrated systems ofNecessary to understand Robots as integrated systems of Human, Robot and Task.

HUMAN TASK

ROBOTROBOT

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Future RobotsFuture Robots

HUMAN TASK

ROBOTROBOT

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Robots as HRT Systemsy

Systematic Approach for a Given Task

Task(T) = ∑ Easy tasks(t) ~ New task

(1)(2) (3)

R b t (R) R b t (R) H (H)(4)

(5) (6)

Robots(R) Robots(R) + Human(H)

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Before and After Robot Application

BEFORE AFTER

Human - Task

human – ROBOT - task

Impossible Task

human task

Robot

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Fantasy of Robots

BEFORE AFTER

Human - Task

ROBOT - task

Impossible Task

ROBOTICS의 새로운 정의23

Human, Task

이 변화를 DESIGN하는 것

human , ROBOT, task

로봇의 정의: 인간과 작업을 연결하는 시스템

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I, Robot: Isaac Asimov, 1950I, Robot Isaac Asimov, 1950

I Robot

Substitution Collaboration

Human-Robot-Task HumanT k

- Manufacturing - Education

Human-Robot-TaskRobot

Task

- Vacuum cleaning

- Humanoid

Hurdle: Social Intelligence

- Health/Medical App

- Silver App

Hurdle: Digital HumanHurdle: Social Intelligence Hurdle: Digital Human

You, Human?

Robots are different?25

(1) Task Performance is critical.

Absolute performance is not necessary It is enough to– Absolute performance is not necessary. It is enough to perform the given task(service) successfully.

(2) Another I

– Robots are friendly for almost all people.

R b t d t d th h hi lf– Robots are understood through himself.

– Robots can be created by anybody.

(3) Technology field than products.

– Robot has tremendous application areas. Almost everything.

– It is very difficult to define.

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Meaning of Engelberger’s Definition

I can't define a robotI can t define a robot,

-> Everyone has his/her own definition.

b t I k h Ibut I know one when I see one.

-> I have my own.y

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For Next 10 Years

Robot industry will grow much faster thanRobot industry will grow much faster than before because of:

(1) Failure experience: We understand better.(1) Failure experience We understand better.

(2) Education and training: Many challenging pioneers

(3) Cost: Robots became cheap enough for many fields(3) Cost: Robots became cheap enough for many fields.

(4) Three Mega Trends in Robot Industry

Three Trends in Robot Ecosystem

(1) Robot Fusion: 2001 ~ – 퍼스널로봇과제, 기획위원장 (2001)

– 차세대 성장동력 10개중 하나로 로봇산업 선정됨 (2003)

차세대성장동력 기획단장 (2003 2004)– 차세대성장동력, 기획단장 (2003~2004)

(2) Robot Plus: 2005~(2) Robot Plus: 2005– 로봇종합발전계획(2005)

– 차세대성장동력 실무위원장 (2004 ~2008)

(3) Robot Rush: 2008~– 로봇특별법(2008)

– 로봇산업정책포럼 의장 (2006 ~ 2008)

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Robot Fusion

• Technology fused into (integrated into) robots for better gy ( g )performance or new performance

– Motor Technology (1970 - )– Computer Technology (1980 - )– Sensor (Digital Camera) Technology (1990 - )– Information Technology (1995 - )– Mobile Communication Technology (2005 - )– Understanding Human (2012 - )– 3D Recognition Technology (2015 - )

B tt T h l (2015 )– Battery Technology (2015 - )– New Actuators (2015 - )– Intelligence Technology (2020 - )

Bio Technology (2040 )– Bio Technology (2040 - )

• IT companies are ready to cooperate with robotics companies.

30

Telepresence (Electronic Times, 6/25/2007)

31

Robot Plus

• Robot+Anything: Combining two domains to create new y g gapplications (benefits/values).

– Robot+Education: to teach creative problem solving– Robot+Culture/Art: to have better effect– Robot+Illumination: to have dynamic illumination– Robot+Sports: to have better improvement– Robot+Home Network: to have better home environment– Robot+Automobile: to have more comfortable and reliable riding

• This trend brings robotists into many new different applications.• That is, robotists are interested in applying their technology to

other fields.

Robot Plus (Example)32

( p )

33Robot Rush

• Relying on robots to solve current issues and/or problems to make better world; Problem domains invite robots to themselves.– Issues of energy, environment, and disasters– Issues from super-aged society– Issues from empty agricultural town– Issues from defense/securityIssues from defense/security

• This trend is motivated by non-robotists (potential user groups).– All companies (manufacturing products and Providing services)p ( g p g )– All government ministries– All local governments– All universities and schools

All persons from young to old– All persons from young to old

• This trend is different from Digital Convergence as in Cellular Phone• This trend is different from Digital Convergence as in Cellular Phone

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Robot Rush (Example)( p )

• 2009, 2, 18, Traditional Musical with Robots

• At Korea National Theater With Robot EVER and SEROPI• At Korea National Theater With Robot EVER and SEROPI

35

Robot Rush (Example)

• Mining Robot 2009

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Three Mega Trends for Big Explosion

Lots of Market:

New ROBOTs

Robot Robot Application Design of New

Plus RushFields: Order/Standard

Robot

FusionTechnology:

Fusion

37

Uncanny Valleyy y

Uncanny Valley: a hypothesis that when robots and other facsimiles of humans look and act almost, but not entirely, like actual humans, it causes a

( ) (response of revulsion (dislike or disgust) among human observers. (from Wikipedia)

38

Most Promising Job Fields:10 Years Later

• KISTEP’s survey result of 625 professionals in Science and y pTechnology, 2009

(1) Robotics: Excellent for all fields: Expertise, Growth, Income, ( ) p , , ,Needs, Social Recognition

(2) Cognitive Science and Brain Engineering: No. 1 in Expertise and Growth

(3) Finance and the related Service: Highest Income(4) Environment and Energy(5) Bio Science and Medical Engineeringg g(6) R&D Consulting(7) Ubiquitous and Cyber related(8) Safety in Life(8) Safety in Life(9) Culture and Advertisement(10) Health and Silver

KISTEP: Korea Institute of Science and Technology Evaluation and Planning

Technology Life Cycle39

gy y

Market

size

Some industrial robots

(welding handling )(welding, handling..)

Some service robots

(Fire fighting ..)

Surgical robots

( g g )

TIME

40

네 부류의 연구원

(1) 시작만 하는 연구원 - 마무리를 짓지 못하는 사람

• 기획가로서 활용가능기획가로서 활용가능

• 활과 화살을 준비만 하고 쏘는 방법에 대해 설명하지만 절대쏘지 않는다

(2) 실패만 하는 연구원(2) 실패만 하는 연구원

• 관리직으로 활용가능 (Manual 대로 일하도록)

• 과녁에서 멀리 벗어나는 사람

(3) 성공만 하는 연구원 – 쉬운 목표 또는 불명확한 목표

• 화살을 쏘고 과녁을 그리는 사람

(4) 성공하는 연구원 (참 드물다)(4) 성공하는 연구원 (참 드물다)

• 실패의 가능성도 있는 성공할 수 있는 목표를 수립하고

• 중간의 작은 어려움과 실패도 예측하여 시나리오로 만들어서 계획을 세운다서 계획을 세운다.

• 목표(과녁)에 도달하지 못하더라도 여기에 더 가치가 있다

• 실패를 할 수 있지만 발전하는 연구원: 가장 바람직실패를 할 수 있지 발 하 구 가장 바 직

결론

• 로봇학: 철학처럼 여러 과학기술분야와 협력하면서 자유자재로 영역을 왕래하면서융합과 발전을 반복하는 존재

– 히데아키 세나: 로봇, 미래를 말하다

• 올바른 로봇학의 이해 필요: 공학적 실장에서 벗어나야 한다.올바른 봇학의 이해 필 공학적 실장에서 벗어나야 한다.

빨리 인간과 작업을 포함하는 사회적 실장으로 넘어가야 한다.

여기서의 목표는 더 나은 사회시스템을 만드는 것.

– (예) 불완전한 노인을 완전하게 돌봐주는 로봇의 개발(예) 불완전한 노인을 완전하게 돌봐주는 로봇의 개발

-> 불완전한 노인 10명을 보조원 1명이 돌볼 수 있도록

인간-로봇-작업/환경시스템의 디자인

- 학생들은 구현 중심으로 배우는 것이 아니라 상상, 표현, 구현을 모두 준비

- 즉 로봇을 포함된 사회를 디자인할 수 있는 능력을 갖추는 것이 중요

• 우리에게 가장 좋은 성공의 방법은

– ROBOT RUSH를 찾아 ROBOT PLUS와의 조화로운 만남을 연결시키는 것