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-
2016, 2.1 - 3
()
()
()
()
[] ,
[] 2016. 5. 24 () 15:30~17:30
[] 14
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2016 2 ()----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. : 5 24() 3 - 5 (120)
2. : 14 A ( 10 )
3. : , (HRI)
4. : 2.1 5 : 3
( (3) 2~3 )
< >
()
20
- 3 ()
3 (2016~2020)
( ) ?
3 ?
()
1 10
- 3
1 2
3
3
(,
)
2 10
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()
: ()
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4(21)
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5(24)
() 3 - 2016-2020 - ( ) ?- ?
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6() , ?- - ()
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7() , ?- / -
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9
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10(/) ? ?- , , - , -
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11
() - ( )- ( )- ?
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12 () 2.1 - 14 - 1- -
2.1 ()
-
3
3
()
3 (2016-2020)
16.5.24.
1. 10 1
2. 3 5
3. 11
-
3
- 1 -
1 10(2006-2015)
- () 30
(15~64)
15 40.3 30 42.9
* : (01~10) 4.4% (11~20) 2.4%
(1970~2040)
- ()
* : (01~10) 3.77% (11~30) 3.01% (31~60) 1.41%
* : (01~10) 3.14% (11~30) 2.44% (31~60) 1.15%
01~10 4.42% 51~60 1.03%
- ()
* 44 , 60
* 35
-
3
- 2 -
GDP 14 35.9%
* 60 64.2%(2060 )
- () 30 ,
,
* 16
- () 21 ,
22
* : (22) 5.1 (50) 20, 18
20 , (20) 16 (50) 57
,
-
3
- 3 -
,
- 05 1.08 ,
,
,
* : 25 2.03 vs 35 0.84
`14 1.58 ( 1.21) 25~34 `05 60.4% `14 43.7%
- ,
, 1~2
* : 23.6% vs. 34.3% (, 14)
* 1.3% (, 12)
* : 1 41.3% (, 12)
- , ,
,
* : 2,057 vs OECD 1,800
* : 0.7 vs 3.3 (, 14)
-
3
- 4 -
3
- ,
, 20~30
*
(93) 1.66 (14) 2.08, (99) 1.50 (14) 1.88
: 3
[] (14) 1.21 (20) 1.5 [] (14) 49.6 (20) 39%
-
3
- 5 -
2 3
( ) , ,
, `20 37
()
( 10% ) 1% 8.5~11.3 ( ) 52
5 14~15 () 8.7~13.2(16~19)
( ) (1.516 3),
*
* () 1 500
( )
1 2 1,080
-
17 2
( ) , ,
-
3
- 6 -
5 13.5*
* 5.3, 2, 5 10 2.3, 3.9
- ()
(36) 5 5.3
50% ,
* ( 10 )
* , , , ,
CCTV, , ,
- () , 510 ,
7.7(10~14) 8.2(16~20)
* 5 10 : 10% 15%
* : (3) 4 , 5 2
- 0.2%p ,
- ( )
0.2%p
( ) () , (3
) , (17)
* 15~44 7 1 , 52 / : 180
(150), 1,200(750)
* 14 0.03
-
3
- 7 -
() 1 3 (16),
*
* 20~30% 17 5%,
: (15) 117 (17) 0( 5% + )
( ) ,
*
* , : (15) 15 (17)
20 (19) 25
( ) (07:30~19:30)
(16.7), *
* `15 6%, 12,344 / 1,036
-
* : (15) 28% (20) 37% (25) 45%
( ) (24`20 26),
() - -NCS
-
- , (17)
* : () (~17), () +
(16 ), (4) (16. 20)
*(NCS):
-
3
- 8 -
( ) (1 `20 6),
(100 )
- (20`17 30)
() * (`16, 13),
( 5% `20 15%)
*
40100%( 100150)
( ) (`16), *
() **
* 15~30
** (430) ,
() (956`20 2,500),
(16)
* ,
,
(16.4),
-
* , , , 5,800
(09~13) ,
-
3
- 9 -
() *,
3 ** (16.3~)
* , 5 , ,
,
** () , () , ( )
() , ,
(16.9)
:
() , ,
() ,
() , ,
() (3~),
,
* () 7: , 9: , 10~12:
, ,
() (3~),
*
* , , ,
* : (14) 76.0% (15) 68.4% (15. )
: *
* ,
2030 : * ,
2030
* ,
-
3
- 10 -
() : *
,
* , ,
3
* , (14)
* (: ) ,
,
* ()
3 5 198
109
* 1~2 (06~15) : 151.3, 79.7
-
,
3 (16~20) (: )
1516~20
16 17 18 19 20 325,716* 352,517 373,662 384,804 425,722 445,479 1,982,184
192,932 214,173 217,224 218,438 220,011 223,837 1,093,683 132,784 138,344 156,438 166,365 205,710 221,642 888,499
* 15 3 (16~20)
16 : 10.8, 10.3, 3.9,
1.3, 2.4
-
3
- 11 -
3
: ,
0.14
1.212014
1.52020
0.15
0.14
1.5
1.211.21
(, )
1.211.21
0.15
?
?
(10%) (10%)
(~2030) 2014 2020 2025 2030 2045
1.21 1.5 1.6 1.7 2.1
()
42.4 48%
(OECD )
55%
(OECD )
60%
(OECD )
5% 15% 20% 25%
()
26% 37% 45% 50%
55.4%62%
(OECD )
64%
(OECD )
67%
(G7 )
-
3
- 12 -
3
()
1. 1 2
.
1) 1
- ,
. ,
.
2) 2 .
3) 3 .
- (Bridge Plan) 3
(bonus) (onus)
.
3 (2016~2020) (15~64
) 2017 , 2018 (aged society)
.
- BIRDGE Building new culture( ), Restructuring(
, ), Implementation
( ), Daddy(
), Going together(
, , ), Enlargement(
, , ) .
-
3
- 13 -
.
1) : 2020 1.5
- 1
, 2
. 3
,
2014 1.21 2020
1.5 2045 (2.1)
. 3
.
2)
-
(Quantum Effects)
(Tempo Effects). 3
,
.
3)
- ,
.
. ,
.
3
.
-
3
- 14 -
2. 3
.
, , , ( ).
1)
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2)
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,
. 3)
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4) -
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2)
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) , (),
( )
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)
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-
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T/F
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3
- 16 -
(16~) * , 10% , 30~40 (16~) * ( 1 500
) , - , -
(16~) * 5 20 1
(16~) * ( 11 2, 0.8 0.9
), ( 0.2%p )
(16~) * , 1 (16), (
20~30% 5% )(18) 100% (17) * , , (3 )
* , , (16) * (15 15, 17 20, 19 25), --
, , ( 24 10
(`16) (16~) * (15) 29% (20) 39% (25) 50% 1~2 (16~) * : (15) 24 (20) 26
(16) * , 1 1 1 (18) (NCS) * 17 NCS
(16) * (
100%( 150) , 1 3 ),
* : (14) 2,124 (20) 1,800, ,
*
( 20 30 ), + ,
(17) * 20 30
1 3 (2016~2020):
: , 2016-2020 3 .
-
3
- 17 -
3. 3
.
1) Tempo Quantum
2)
(Tempo) , (Quantum)
3) , ,
, .
.
-
3
- 18 -
. 3
1) ( )
- (, ), , , ,
.
->
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(, , )
()
1. (demographic transition) 1
,
1960 2.73, 1993 1.65 2014 1.98 .
1990 2.14 1999 1.52 2014 1.91 * (
,
)
2001 1.63 , 2013 1.83
1960 3.5 1970 , 2013 1.86
-
(, , )
- 21 -
2. .
(1)
, , , 4 , (pro-natalist) , , , 4
1920 ,
2 -
1970 ,
1980
- - .
1990 ,
- ,
-
(, , )
- 22 -
,
(), ,
(2) () 1930
, 2004 (PAJE)
, .
- PAJE , , ,
, ,
()
, 1
(-) ,
( ) , ( 53.7%, 2009)
-
(, , )
- 23 -
.
(1) ,
,
, - , , ( ),
(2) (- ) -
80% (), 2 (speed premium)
- 480, 390 80%( 90 )
,
OECD 3 () , 0~2
-
(, , )
- 24 -
(, , ) ( 50%),
() , , .
1970~1990 , .
() (), (16 ),
( ) ,
, ,
(Sambo, )
.
(1) 1990
1997
-
(, , )
- 25 -
,
, ,
, , -
,
, (2010 46.9%)
(2) (/) 16
, .
() (, ) 2011 12 20
, ,
( )
( ) 20
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(, , )
- 26 -
. 16
, 39, 39
.
.
.
, , .
(EITC) .
(CTC), , . 12 ,
- , , ,
, , ,
-
(, , )
- 27 -
,
, (2007 38.5%)
3. ()
, ( 40%, 1,000), (, )
, , , , , (speed premium)
,
- , , , , ( )
- (speed premium)
-
(, , )
- 28 -
4.
( , , )
, ( )
-
10 , , , ( ) ,
- ( )