012 - hri-hyundai research institutehri.co.kr/upload/publication/2016526113321[1].pdf · (‘있는...

32

Upload: buinhu

Post on 15-Feb-2018

218 views

Category:

Documents


3 download

TRANSCRIPT

  • 2016, 2.1 - 3

    ()

    ()

    ()

    ()

    [] ,

    [] 2016. 5. 24 () 15:30~17:30

    [] 14

  • 2016 2 ()----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    1. : 5 24() 3 - 5 (120)

    2. : 14 A ( 10 )

    3. : , (HRI)

    4. : 2.1 5 : 3

    ( (3) 2~3 )

    < >

    ()

    20

    - 3 ()

    3 (2016~2020)

    ( ) ?

    3 ?

    ()

    1 10

    - 3

    1 2

    3

    3

    (,

    )

    2 10

    - (, , )

    (, , )

    ()

    : ()

    -

  • ()

    4(21)

    () 10 : - ? ?- 2005 1.08 2015 1.24 - : ,

    - ()- - ()

    5(24)

    () 3 - 2016-2020 - ( ) ?- ?

    - - - 3

    6() , ?- - ()

    - - //- ( )

    7() , ?- / -

    - - - - -

    9

    () ? ?- , - -

    - - -

    10(/) ? ?- , , - , -

    - - - C

    11

    () - ( )- ( )- ?

    - - -

    12 () 2.1 - 14 - 1- -

    2.1 ()

  • 3

    3

    ()

    3 (2016-2020)

    16.5.24.

    1. 10 1

    2. 3 5

    3. 11

  • 3

    - 1 -

    1 10(2006-2015)

    - () 30

    (15~64)

    15 40.3 30 42.9

    * : (01~10) 4.4% (11~20) 2.4%

    (1970~2040)

    - ()

    * : (01~10) 3.77% (11~30) 3.01% (31~60) 1.41%

    * : (01~10) 3.14% (11~30) 2.44% (31~60) 1.15%

    01~10 4.42% 51~60 1.03%

    - ()

    * 44 , 60

    * 35

  • 3

    - 2 -

    GDP 14 35.9%

    * 60 64.2%(2060 )

    - () 30 ,

    ,

    * 16

    - () 21 ,

    22

    * : (22) 5.1 (50) 20, 18

    20 , (20) 16 (50) 57

    ,

  • 3

    - 3 -

    ,

    - 05 1.08 ,

    ,

    ,

    * : 25 2.03 vs 35 0.84

    `14 1.58 ( 1.21) 25~34 `05 60.4% `14 43.7%

    - ,

    , 1~2

    * : 23.6% vs. 34.3% (, 14)

    * 1.3% (, 12)

    * : 1 41.3% (, 12)

    - , ,

    ,

    * : 2,057 vs OECD 1,800

    * : 0.7 vs 3.3 (, 14)

  • 3

    - 4 -

    3

    - ,

    , 20~30

    *

    (93) 1.66 (14) 2.08, (99) 1.50 (14) 1.88

    : 3

    [] (14) 1.21 (20) 1.5 [] (14) 49.6 (20) 39%

  • 3

    - 5 -

    2 3

    ( ) , ,

    , `20 37

    ()

    ( 10% ) 1% 8.5~11.3 ( ) 52

    5 14~15 () 8.7~13.2(16~19)

    ( ) (1.516 3),

    *

    * () 1 500

    ( )

    1 2 1,080

    -

    17 2

    ( ) , ,

  • 3

    - 6 -

    5 13.5*

    * 5.3, 2, 5 10 2.3, 3.9

    - ()

    (36) 5 5.3

    50% ,

    * ( 10 )

    * , , , ,

    CCTV, , ,

    - () , 510 ,

    7.7(10~14) 8.2(16~20)

    * 5 10 : 10% 15%

    * : (3) 4 , 5 2

    - 0.2%p ,

    - ( )

    0.2%p

    ( ) () , (3

    ) , (17)

    * 15~44 7 1 , 52 / : 180

    (150), 1,200(750)

    * 14 0.03

  • 3

    - 7 -

    () 1 3 (16),

    *

    * 20~30% 17 5%,

    : (15) 117 (17) 0( 5% + )

    ( ) ,

    *

    * , : (15) 15 (17)

    20 (19) 25

    ( ) (07:30~19:30)

    (16.7), *

    * `15 6%, 12,344 / 1,036

    -

    * : (15) 28% (20) 37% (25) 45%

    ( ) (24`20 26),

    () - -NCS

    -

    - , (17)

    * : () (~17), () +

    (16 ), (4) (16. 20)

    *(NCS):

  • 3

    - 8 -

    ( ) (1 `20 6),

    (100 )

    - (20`17 30)

    () * (`16, 13),

    ( 5% `20 15%)

    *

    40100%( 100150)

    ( ) (`16), *

    () **

    * 15~30

    ** (430) ,

    () (956`20 2,500),

    (16)

    * ,

    ,

    (16.4),

    -

    * , , , 5,800

    (09~13) ,

  • 3

    - 9 -

    () *,

    3 ** (16.3~)

    * , 5 , ,

    ,

    ** () , () , ( )

    () , ,

    (16.9)

    :

    () , ,

    () ,

    () , ,

    () (3~),

    ,

    * () 7: , 9: , 10~12:

    , ,

    () (3~),

    *

    * , , ,

    * : (14) 76.0% (15) 68.4% (15. )

    : *

    * ,

    2030 : * ,

    2030

    * ,

  • 3

    - 10 -

    () : *

    ,

    * , ,

    3

    * , (14)

    * (: ) ,

    ,

    * ()

    3 5 198

    109

    * 1~2 (06~15) : 151.3, 79.7

    -

    ,

    3 (16~20) (: )

    1516~20

    16 17 18 19 20 325,716* 352,517 373,662 384,804 425,722 445,479 1,982,184

    192,932 214,173 217,224 218,438 220,011 223,837 1,093,683 132,784 138,344 156,438 166,365 205,710 221,642 888,499

    * 15 3 (16~20)

    16 : 10.8, 10.3, 3.9,

    1.3, 2.4

  • 3

    - 11 -

    3

    : ,

    0.14

    1.212014

    1.52020

    0.15

    0.14

    1.5

    1.211.21

    (, )

    1.211.21

    0.15

    ?

    ?

    (10%) (10%)

    (~2030) 2014 2020 2025 2030 2045

    1.21 1.5 1.6 1.7 2.1

    ()

    42.4 48%

    (OECD )

    55%

    (OECD )

    60%

    (OECD )

    5% 15% 20% 25%

    ()

    26% 37% 45% 50%

    55.4%62%

    (OECD )

    64%

    (OECD )

    67%

    (G7 )

  • 3

    - 12 -

    3

    ()

    1. 1 2

    .

    1) 1

    - ,

    . ,

    .

    2) 2 .

    3) 3 .

    - (Bridge Plan) 3

    (bonus) (onus)

    .

    3 (2016~2020) (15~64

    ) 2017 , 2018 (aged society)

    .

    - BIRDGE Building new culture( ), Restructuring(

    , ), Implementation

    ( ), Daddy(

    ), Going together(

    , , ), Enlargement(

    , , ) .

  • 3

    - 13 -

    .

    1) : 2020 1.5

    - 1

    , 2

    . 3

    ,

    2014 1.21 2020

    1.5 2045 (2.1)

    . 3

    .

    2)

    -

    (Quantum Effects)

    (Tempo Effects). 3

    ,

    .

    3)

    - ,

    .

    . ,

    .

    3

    .

  • 3

    - 14 -

    2. 3

    .

    , , , ( ).

    1)

    -

    ,

    .

    2)

    - , , .

    ,

    . 3)

    - ,

    ,

    .

    4) -

    , .

    .

    1)

    - ()

    - ()

    - () ,

  • 3

    - 15 -

    - ()

    - ()

    2)

    )

    - ,

    - 3 , (

    ) , (),

    ( )

    - - , TV

    )

    -

    - ,

    )

    - ,

    -

    -

    T/F

  • 3

    - 16 -

    (16~) * , 10% , 30~40 (16~) * ( 1 500

    ) , - , -

    (16~) * 5 20 1

    (16~) * ( 11 2, 0.8 0.9

    ), ( 0.2%p )

    (16~) * , 1 (16), (

    20~30% 5% )(18) 100% (17) * , , (3 )

    * , , (16) * (15 15, 17 20, 19 25), --

    , , ( 24 10

    (`16) (16~) * (15) 29% (20) 39% (25) 50% 1~2 (16~) * : (15) 24 (20) 26

    (16) * , 1 1 1 (18) (NCS) * 17 NCS

    (16) * (

    100%( 150) , 1 3 ),

    * : (14) 2,124 (20) 1,800, ,

    *

    ( 20 30 ), + ,

    (17) * 20 30

    1 3 (2016~2020):

    : , 2016-2020 3 .

  • 3

    - 17 -

    3. 3

    .

    1) Tempo Quantum

    2)

    (Tempo) , (Quantum)

    3) , ,

    , .

    .

  • 3

    - 18 -

    . 3

    1) ( )

    - (, ), , , ,

    .

    ->

    - ( , ,

    )

    -> ()

    2)

    - (?)

    .

    - 5

    ,

    - ,

    ,

    3) -

    -

    (TFR

  • 3

    - 19 -

    )

    .

    - : , .

    . ,

    ,

    .

    - :

    .

    10 20

    . ,

    .

    5)

    - , , .

    . ,

    ( )

    - : ,

    , ( ) .

    .

  • (, , )

    - 20 -

    (, , )

    ()

    1. (demographic transition) 1

    ,

    1960 2.73, 1993 1.65 2014 1.98 .

    1990 2.14 1999 1.52 2014 1.91 * (

    ,

    )

    2001 1.63 , 2013 1.83

    1960 3.5 1970 , 2013 1.86

  • (, , )

    - 21 -

    2. .

    (1)

    , , , 4 , (pro-natalist) , , , 4

    1920 ,

    2 -

    1970 ,

    1980

    - - .

    1990 ,

    - ,

  • (, , )

    - 22 -

    ,

    (), ,

    (2) () 1930

    , 2004 (PAJE)

    , .

    - PAJE , , ,

    , ,

    ()

    , 1

    (-) ,

    ( ) , ( 53.7%, 2009)

  • (, , )

    - 23 -

    .

    (1) ,

    ,

    , - , , ( ),

    (2) (- ) -

    80% (), 2 (speed premium)

    - 480, 390 80%( 90 )

    ,

    OECD 3 () , 0~2

  • (, , )

    - 24 -

    (, , ) ( 50%),

    () , , .

    1970~1990 , .

    () (), (16 ),

    ( ) ,

    , ,

    (Sambo, )

    .

    (1) 1990

    1997

  • (, , )

    - 25 -

    ,

    , ,

    , , -

    ,

    , (2010 46.9%)

    (2) (/) 16

    , .

    () (, ) 2011 12 20

    , ,

    ( )

    ( ) 20

  • (, , )

    - 26 -

    . 16

    , 39, 39

    .

    .

    .

    , , .

    (EITC) .

    (CTC), , . 12 ,

    - , , ,

    , , ,

  • (, , )

    - 27 -

    ,

    , (2007 38.5%)

    3. ()

    , ( 40%, 1,000), (, )

    , , , , , (speed premium)

    ,

    - , , , , ( )

    - (speed premium)

  • (, , )

    - 28 -

    4.

    ( , , )

    , ( )

    -

    10 , , , ( ) ,

    - ( )