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CHAPTER 4 : HR PLANNING( 第四章人力资源规划 )

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MAIN CONTENTS

THE TASK FOR HRP THE MAKEUP OF HRP FORCASTING TECHNICS

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THE TASK FOR HRP （第一节人力规划的任务 ）

What is HRP? The Content of HRP The Function of HRP

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1. What is HRP （ p113 ） ?

HRP ( 人力资源规划 ) is a process of scientific analyzing and anticipating the future supply（供给） of and demand （需求） for human resources in the enterprise operating in a changeable environment so as to have the right people at the right time for the right place by taking some strategies and policies.

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1. What is HRP?

The Basis for HRP （ p118 ） Operation strategy and objectives Demand and supply forecasts The Labor market The bugets

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Overall HRP( 总体规划 )

HR business plan( 业

务计划 )

2.The Content of H R P （ p114 － p117 ）

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HRP

Post management plan

Allocation Plan

Development Plan

Appraisal Plan

Motivation Plan

Job Design scheme

Job Analysis scheme

Supplement scheme

Replacement scheme

Training scheme

Promotion scheme

Performance scheme

Appraisal scheme

Distribution scheme

Motivation scheme

Benefit scheme

Overall Plan Functional Plan Specific Scheme

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3.The Function of HRP

To facilitate realizing the organization strategy goals 　

To cope with the change of environments

To foresee the future shortage and surplus of people

To facilitate other HRM activities

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二、 THE MAKEUP OF HRP

( 第二节人力资源规划制定 ) The Procedure

Forecasts of supply

Implementation and evaluation

Collecting information

Goal setting and planning

Forecasts of demand

Forecasts of surplus or shortage

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三、 FORCASTING TECHNICS

( 第三节预测技术 )

Demand Forecasting (Statistical/Judgmental)

Supply Forecasting Demand and Supply Balancing

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1.Demand Forecasting (Judgmental)

Delphi Technique( 德尔菲法 p129) is a set of procedures originally developed by the Rand Corporation( 兰德 公司 ) in the late 1940s. The future HR demand is predicted based on a group of experts’ experience and intuition. Its purpose is to obtain the most reliable consensus of opinion of a group of experts.

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步骤： （ 1 ）选择专家，确定问题，设计问卷，把问卷寄给

专家 （ 2 ）由各专家背靠背独立完成，并提出相应意见方

案。 (3) 人力部门回收第一轮，然后统计整理后， （ 4 ）把问卷结果复印件寄给专家， （ 5 ）请专家再次提出方案 （ 6 ）重复 3 、 4 、 5 步，直到获得比较一致的看法。 注意事项：征求意见的问题具体，问题不能过多。

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1.Demand Forecasting (Judgmental)

The Manager Estimate （经理预测法 / 主观判断法）

The future demand is forecasted by managers on the basis of the increase and decrease of future business of one’s department. It is usually bottom-up technique.

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1.Demand Forecasting (Statistical)

Ratio Analysis （比率分析法 p129 ） is the process of determining future HR demand by computing an exact ratio between a business factor and the number of employees needed.

For example, a hospital has 10,000 patients and 500 nurses ， the ratio is thus 10,000:500 or 20:1. This ratio means that for every 20patients it needs one nurse. If the hospital anticipates an increase for next year of 1000 patients, How many additional nurses need to hire?

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1.Demand Forecasting (Statistical)

Scatter Diagram( 散点分析法 p130)

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1.Demand Forecasting (Statistical)

Regression Analysis/Trend Analysis （回归分析法 p130 ）

Y ＝ a ＋ bx 年度 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10=55 =30550

人数 500 480 490 510 520 540 560 550 580 620=5350 =385

xx xy

yy 2x

22 )()(

)(

xxn

yxxynb

n

xb

n

ya

Example ： Please predict human resources needed for the13th and 15th year based on the workforce size for X company in the past 10 years .

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2.Supply forecasting

Executive Replacement Charts( 管理人员接替图p132 ）

It is a map used to forecast the future managers replace and supply .This concise map must show possible replacement candidates as well as their performance and promotion potential.

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2.Supply forecasting

Executive Replacement Model( 人员接替模型133 － p134 ）

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Markov Analysis/Transitional matrices （马尔科夫分析法 / 转移矩阵法 p135 ）

The future HR supply is predicted based on past mobility or shift trends.

2.Supply forecasting

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3. Demand & Supply Balancing

Staff Shortages ( 调节不足 )

●Working overtime or employing temporary workers. ●redesigning departments. 　

● Outsourcing ● transferring 　 ● External recruiting

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3. Demand & Supply Balancing

Staff Surpluses ●Increasing sales volume, opening up new pro

ducts And markets. ●Improving Product quality ● Natural attrition—as workers leave they are n

ot replaced.

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Staff Surpluses ● Reducing working-- time ●Training ● Early retirements program ●Lay-off( 临时性停工 ) ● Job-sharing( 工作分享 ) ● Redundancy

3. Demand & Supply Balancing(p134 ）

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思考 这儿有八种人，你准备怎么安排他们？ 　（１）　勇敢但不计后果； （２） 点子多但不听话； 　（３）　有本事但过于谦虚； 　（４）　听话但没有原则； 　（５）　踏实但没有创意； 　（６）　能力强但不善合作； 　（７）　机灵但不踏实； 　（８）　是将才但有野心．

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案例分析 在企业管理实践中，管理者经常遇到一些问

题，员工被人挖走，员工跳槽了，企业要发展，但缺乏适应企业发展所需要的人才，若你是管理者，怎么办？