1 global warming, climate change, energy security the hard choices facing us university of tokyo...

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Global Warming, Climate Change, Energy SecurityThe Hard Choices facing us

University of TokyoTokyo: 16th June 2008

CRedCarbon Reduction

N.K. Tovey (杜伟贤 ) M.A, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук

Energy Science Director CRed Project

HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation

Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal5th October 2007

The twin critical issues facing us:

• Global Warming / Climate change

• need to reduce carbon emissions

• Energy Security

• recent high oil prices are a foretaste of what may happen

• demand is outstripping supply

Are there conflicts between these issues?2


3

Concentration of C02 in Atmosphere

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

(ppm

)Evidence of Climate Change

3

Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

T

em

pe

ratu

re R

ise

(oC

) actual

predicted

Is Global Warming man made?

Prediction: Anthropogenic only

Not a good match between 1920 and 1970

Predictions include:

• Greenhouse Gas emissions

• Sulphates and ozone

• Solar and volcanic activity44



Prediction: Natural only

good match until 1960




• Solar and volcanic activity

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000Tem

per

atu

re R

ise

(oC

)

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Tem

per

atu

re R

ise

(oC

)

actual

predicted

55

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Te

mp

era

ture

Ris

e (o

C)

actualpredicted


Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic

Generally a good match




• Solar and volcanic activity


66

Total winter precipitation Total summer precipitation

Source: Tim

Osborne, C

RU

Change in precipitation in UK 1961-2001

7

8

Increasing Occurrence of Drought

9

Source: Tim

Osborne, C

RU

Increasing Occurrence of Flood

2003

• Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region– Nasa satellite

imagery

10

1979

Climate ChangeArctic meltdown 1979 - 2003

Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

•20% reduction in 24 years

http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Gas and Oil Production - ASPO projection 2004

Bill

ion

bar

rels

of

oil a

yea

r

1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Oil and Gas on Earth are running out

11

Comparison of Discoveries and Demand

0 1936.553 1937 34.761 1937 1.9220 1937.92 1938 31.547 1938 2.0830 1938.784 1939 36.482 1939 2.2440 1939.78 1940 14.011 1940 2.4050 1941.146 1941 10.056 1941 2.50120 1941.651 1942 3.141 1942 2.59740 1942.852 1943 3.878 1943 2.69360 1943.714 1944 7.826 1944 2.78980 1944.915 1945 8.316 1945 2.8860 1945.77 1946 6.832 1946 3.130 1946.691 1947 51.274 1947 3.3740 1947.555 1948 56.209 1948 3.6180 1949.098 1949 56.699 1949 3.8620 1949.904 1950 20.894 1950 4.105750 1950.927 1951 16.447 1951 4.34950 1951.8 1952 27.555 1952 4.593250 1952.819 1953 21.379 1953 4.8370 1953.687 1954 28.537 1954 5.245333

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

bili

on b

arre

ls p

er a

nn

um

actual discoveries

projected discoveries

demand

We need to consider alternatives now12

13

UK Gas Production and Demand

Import Gap

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

Inst

all

ed C

ap

aci

ty (

MW

)

New Build ?

ProjectedActual

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UK Nuclear Capapcity

15

Actual Nuclear

Projected Nuclear

Actual Coal with FGD

Opted Out Coal

Renewables

New Nuclear?

New Coal ???

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

MW

• Opted Out Coal: Stations can only run for 20 000 hours more and must close by 2015• New Nuclear assumes completing 1 new nuclear station each year beyond 2018• New Coal assumes completing 1 new coal station each year beyond 2018

Our Choices: They are difficult: Energy SecurityThere is a

looming capacity shortfall

Even with a full deployment of

renewables.

A 10% reduction in demand per

house will see a rise of 7% in total demand

- Increased population decreased

household size

16Per capita Carbon Emissions

JapanUK

How do UK and Japan compare with other countries?

Why do some countries emit more CO2 than others?

What is the magnitude of the CO2 problem?

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How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?

5 hot air balloons per person per year.

In the developing world, the average is under 1 balloon per person

On average each person in UK and also Japan causes the emission of ~9 tonnes of CO2 each year.

"Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little."

Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

18

Carbon Emissions and GDP

0

5

10

15

20

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000Income per Capita (US$)

CO

2 em

issi

ons

ton

nes

/cap

ita

Japan

Libya

Russia

USA

ChinaTurkey

India

Norway

France

UK

Sweden

SwitzerlandDenmark

Germany

Netherlands

GreeceItaly

19

Carbon Emissions and Electricity

r

20

Electricity Generation i n selected Countries

Historic and Future Demand for Electricity in UK

Number of households will rise by 17.5% by 2025 and consumption per household must fall by this amount just to remain static

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Ele

ctri

city

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n (

TW

h)

Business as usual

Energy Efficient Future ?

21

22

Carbon Dioxide Emissions

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

MT

on

ne

s C

O2

Actual

Business as Usual

Energy Efficiency

The Gas Scenario

Assumes all new non-renewable generation is from gas.

Replacements for ageing plant

Additions to deal with demand changes

Assumes 10.4% renewables by 2010

25% renewables by 2025

Energy Efficiency – consumption capped at 420 TWh by 2010

But 68% growth in gas demand (compared to 2002)

Business as Usual

257% increase in gas consumption ( compared to 2002)

Electricity Options for the Future for UK – the conflicts

Gas Consumption

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

bil

lion

cu

bic

me

tre

s Actual

Business as Usual

Energy Efficiency

23

Energy Efficiency Scenario

Other Options

Some New Nuclear needed by 2025 if CO2 levels are to fall significantly and excessive gas demand is to be avoided

Business as Usual Scenario

New Nuclear is required even to reduce back to 1990 levels


0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

MT

on

ne

s C

O2

ActualGasNuclearCoal40:20:40 Mix


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mto

nn

es C

O2

ActualGasNuclearCoal40:20:40 Mix

25% Renewables by 2025

• 20000 MW Wind

• 16000 MW Other Renewables inc. Tidal, hydro, biomass etc.

Alternative Electricity Options for the Future

What prospects are there for the future?

Reduce existing fossil fuel energy use by:• Awareness Raising• Good Management• Improvements in energy efficiency technology• Renewable Energy• Offsets

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Good Management and improvements in Energy Efficiency in buildings will be covered in Lecture this evening at 18:00 at British Council 1-2, Kagurazaka, Shinjuku-ku near Lidabashi Metro Station

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ZICER Building

Good Energy Management reduced consumption in a Low Energy Building by a further 57%

Incorporates 34 kW of Solar Panels on top floor

Low Energy Building of the Year Award 2005 awarded by the Carbon Trust.

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A Pathway to a Low Carbon Future: In our homes未来的低碳之路

1. 不要浪费能源Awareness

3. 使用可再生能源 Renewable Energy

4. 抵消碳排放 Offsetting

2. 使用效率高的设备 Technical Measures

27

A Pathway to a Low Carbon Future for business

4. Renewable Energy

5. Offsetting

Green Tariffs

3. Technical Measures

1. Awareness

0

200

400

600

800

1000

-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Mean |External Temperature (oC)

En

ergy

Con

sum

pti

on (

kW

h/d

ay)

Original Heating Strategy New Heating Strategy

O

2. Management

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Comparison of Carbon Emissions from Heating & Hot Water

Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project

Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh

Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004

29

30

Performance of a Solar Thermal System

Solar Gain (kWh/day)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10 20 30 9 19 29 8 18 28 10 20 30 9 19 29 9 19 29 8 18 28 8 18 28 7 17 27 6 16 26 6 16 26

Day of Month

Sola

r G

ain

(kW

h)

December January February

March April May

June July August

September October

Data collect 9th December 2006 – 30th October 2007

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Solar Electricity

It is still very expensive

Options for Renewable Electricity Generation

On shore wind

•1.5 MW machine will provide energy for 1000 homes in UK

•New machines are twice as big

66 m

66 m

32


Off shore wind

By mid August, 2008 UK will have ~ 450 MW of offshore wind – the highest of any country.

33

34

Scroby Sands Wind Farm has 30 turbines and can provide sufficient electricity for 35 000 houses on average.

Performance of UK Wind Farms in East Anglia

HydroelectricitySome countries have a high proportion of hydro electricity -

Norway ~ 98.9%

UK ~ 1.9%

Japan ~ 7.8%

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Possible opportunities for Micro Hydro.

5.5 kW

Options for Renewable Electricity Generation - Biomass

But Land Area required is very large - 10000 sq km would be needed to generated justr 5% of UK electricity needs.

Transport Fuels:

• Biodiesel?

• Bioethanol?

• Compressed gas from methane from waste.

36

Options for Renewable Electricity Generation - Wave

37

Options for Renewable Electricity Generation - Tidal

38

Options for Renewable Electricity Generation - Tidal

39

40


Output (MWh)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

01/0

1/20

02

15/0

1/20

02

29/0

1/20

02

12/0

2/20

02

26/0

2/20

02

12/0

3/20

02

26/0

3/20

02

09/0

4/20

02

23/0

4/20

02

07/0

5/20

02

21/0

5/20

02

04/0

6/20

02

18/0

6/20

02

02/0

7/20

02

16/0

7/20

02

30/0

7/20

02

13/0

8/20

02

27/0

8/20

02

10/0

9/20

02

24/0

9/20

02

08/1

0/20

02

22/1

0/20

02

05/1

1/2

002

19/1

1/2

002

03/1

2/20

02

17/1

2/20

02

31/1

2/20

02

Out

put

(MW

h pe

r da

y)

Output 78 000 GWh per annum

Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney

Save 40000 tonnes of CO2

Tidal Barrages

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Involve the local Community• The residents on the island of Burray (Orkney) campaigned

for a wind turbine.

• On average they are more than self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity.

• Many of the Islanders bought shares in the project and are now reaping the reward.

• Orkney is hoping to be a zero net emitter of carbon dioxide by 2015.

• Even better things are happening on the Island of Westray.

Involve the local CommunityEven better things are happening on the Island of Westray.

The Parish Kirk, and Community Centre are heated by heat Pumps partly powered by Wind Turbines

Waste cooking oil from other islands is processed into biodiesel for farm

and other vehicles.

Ethanol used in process is obtained from fermentation of harvested sea

weed

42

43

Raising Awareness• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing

machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost over £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.

• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon.

• Standby on electrical appliances 60+ kWh a year - 3000 balloons at a cost of over £6 per year

• Filling up with petrol (~£50 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon)

How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour in Northern Japan or UK?

2.6 km

At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai

School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya 43

44

In the UK the Carbon Reduction Programme is aiming to push the agenda towards the 60% cut needed to combat Climate Change

CRed

45

CRedBirmingham

Carbon Reduction

CRedNorth Carolina

Carbon Reduction

CRedJapan?

Carbon Reduction

CRedShanghai

Carbon Reduction

CRedChester

Carbon Reduction

CRedAustralia

Carbon Reduction

Elsewhere in UK

Overseas

In the Future

CRedFylde

Carbon Reduction

46

CRed already has a WEBSITE in China

47

World’s First MBA in Strategic Carbon Management

First cohort January 2008

A partnership between

The Norwich Business School and the 5** school of Environmental Sciences

Sharing the Expertise of the University

48

ConclusionsClimate Change and Energy Security are important issues

Effective strategies are needed to explore integrated approaches involving

•Awareness raising

•Improvement s in Management

•Improvements in Energy Efficiency

•Deployment of Renewable Energy

•Finally, when all other things have been achieved, Offsetting

Offsetting should not be used as the first choice.

Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher

"If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."

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WEBSITE cred-uk.org/

Visit this WEB site. Follow Academic Links this presentation will appear from 19th June

Keith Tovey (杜伟贤 ) [email protected]


This evening at 18:00 at British Council 1-2, Kagurazaka, Shinjuku-ku near Lidabashi Metro Station

Low Carbon Strategies for BusinessThe Experience of the University of East Anglia

1 global warming, climate change, energy security the hard choices facing us university of tokyo...

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