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Mainstreaming Conservation ROI:

How and Why?

Jim BoydResources for the Future

Timm KroegerTNC

Interim Report onTNC-RFF Partnership

supported by the Moore Foundation

Mission

• Promote broader application of return on investment (ROI) analysis by conservation planners and managers

What Is ROI Analysis?

• Quantitative outcome measures– Measured or predicted conservation “lift” relative

to baseline• Costs, budget constraints taken into account

– Measure bang for buck

Motivation

• Numerous studies have shown that ROI-based planning – Alters the location and targets of “optimal”

conservation– Achieves more protection and higher-quality

conservation outcomes– Saves money

Examples

• Moore et al, Biological Conservation, 2004 – 66% gain in species coverage

• Murdoch et al, Biological Conservation, 2007– Major changes in portfolio choice

• Murdoch et al PNAS, 2010 – ROI yields 4x the conservation benefit, compared

to “hotspot” framework

Motivation 1

• Despite this, and despite leadership support– ROI analysis is rarely used in practice– Why?– What can we do about it?

Motivation 1

• Despite this, and despite leadership support– ROI analysis is rarely, if ever, used by TNC– Why?– What can we do about it?

These ROI analyses are of “simple” cost effectiveness– A single objective – e.g. biodiversity conservation

Motivation 2

• Changing conservancy missions– Emphasize social objectives– Conserve ecosystem services– Multi-objective goals

• ROI framework arguably necessary to do– Optimized planning for – Multi-objective, social/economic missions

The TNC-RFF ROI Project

Key questions:• How to define the “R” in ROI?• What type of ROI outputs are most useful to

TNC? • What are the core technical barriers?

– Data, models• Managerial barriers?

– Planning/analysis frameworks, staffing, training, protocols

The Project Plan

Phase 1• Evaluate current ROI analysis capabilities • What ROI products would actually be used by

managers and to what end?Phase 2• Depending on phase 1 …

Phase 1 Activities

(1) Six project level case studies • What is the project’s “ROI story?” • What are the outcomes associated with that story?• To what degree can the ROI story be quantified?• What is the project-level state of the art re.

quantification?• What are the barriers to quantification?

Internal Demand

• Portfolio strategy– Use ROI to tell us where to invest over broad

areas?• Project-level evaluation

– Use ROI to measure project effectiveness, manage adaptively (like RBM)

• Communications – Use ROI to improve messaging, to reach

stakeholders, supporters

The Pilot TNC Cases

• Kimbe Bay MPA (Papua New Guinea) • Great Bear Rainforest (Canada)• Savannah River SRP (USA)• Valdivian Coastal Reserve (Chile) • Warm Springs Mountain Preserve (USA) • Atlantic Forest Water Producer Program (Brazil)

What We’re Looking For

• What is the conservation objective?– Is it clearly defined, and can it be measured?– One objective, or multiple?– Biophysical or social outcomes?

• Measured baselines– Analysis of threats to conservation objectives

• Measured conservation outcomes as function of conservation actions

Biophysical Impact

• What is the biophysical “lift”?• Measureable improvements over baseline

Example: Increased species abundanceExample: Preservation of species abundance, where

otherwise we’d have losses

Note: the lift must be attributable to the conservation action

Biophysical production functions Via monitored

data, predictive models, stories

Results (Broadly Painted)• Projects chosen

– Biodiversity planning + opportunism– Some analysis of threats, but not systematic

• Evaluation of biophysical outcomes– Sporadic, with some innovative examples– Very limited support for monitoring

• Evaluation of social outcomes– Almost non-existent

• Costs– Usually, but not in consistent formats

Warm Springs Mountain

• Site selection– Sophisticated ecoregional planning– Opportunism versus cost-effectiveness– Qualitative threat assessment

• Conservation experiments– Fire restoration, species impacts– Small scale invasive species control

• Ecosystem services– No analysis of production functions, social

outcomes

Implications for Phase 2

• Social data, measures of ecosystem service benefits

• Project-level models, data on production functions– eg InVEST

• Demonstration of portfolio-level social objectives planning

• The ROI of ROI