11 arctic melt ebinger zambetakis(1)

8202019 11 Arctic Melt Ebinger Zambetakis(1)

httpslidepdfcomreaderfull11-arctic-melt-ebinger-zambetakis1 118

The geopolitics of Arctic melt

International Affairs 983096983093 983094 (983090983088983088983097) 983089983090983089983093ndash983089983090983091983090copy 983090983088983088983097 The Author(s) Journal Compilation copy 983090983088983088983097 Blackwell Publishing LtdThe Royal Institute of International Affairs

CHARLES K EBINGER AND EVIE ZAMBETAKIS

Global climate change has catapulted the Arctic into the centre of geopolitics asmelting Arctic ice transforms the region from one of primarily scientific interest

into a maelstrom of competing commercial national security and environmentalconcerns with profound implications for the international legal and politicalsystem

The significance of an Arctic rendered increasingly accessible by the melting ofice as a result of rising global temperatures should not be underestimated As theregion opens to increased human activity such as traffic from commercial shippingtourism and oil and gas exploration soot emitted by maritime vessels and opera-tions will land on the ice Greying of the icecap as black carbon from incompletehydrocarbon combustion lodges itself in snow and ice causes what was once areflective surface to absorb more sunlight melt and warm the water The resultingdangerous feedback loop is part of an alarming phenomenon that is pushing the

current drive for policies to slow down climate changeIncreasing water temperatures are changing the distribution of sea ice and

having grave impacts on ice-dependent flora and fauna In September 983090983088983088983097 nearly983091983093983088983088 walruses congregated on Alaskarsquos north-west coast off the Chukchi Seabecause of reduced sea ice the same happened in 983090983088983088983095 with over 983094983088983088983088 walruses983089 Polar bears are likely to face extinction in less than 983095983088 years as they lose their tradi-tional breeding and hunting grounds to melting ice983090 Red foxes are migrating evernorthwards and displacing smaller Arctic foxes983091 The list goes on

The loss of permafrost animals and fish could have a devastating effect on thenative peoples of the region whose cultures continue to be linked intimately with

them The Inuit hunting culture is directly threatened by changes not only inthe physical geography of the environment but in the composition of the animalpopulation Villages along the Bering and Chukchi coasts have been relocatedbecause of melting permafrost and consequent ccentoastal erosion And while theimpact on marine life is not yet known signs of change can already be observed in

983089 Dan Joling lsquoWalruses congregate on Alaska shore as ice meltsrsquo Associated Press 983089983088 Sept 983090983088983088983097 httpwwwgooglecomhostednewsaparticleALeqM983093iveFY983089XCjWegbjcLevGSl983090HtDj983095wD983097AK983091983094983097983088983088 accessed 983089983088 Sept983090983088983088983097

983090 Eric Post Mads C Forchhammer M Syndonia Bret-Harte Terry V Callaghan et al lsquoEcological dynamicsacross the Arctic associated with recent climate changersquo Science 983091983090983093 983093983097983092983094 983089983089 Sept 983090983088983088983097 p 983089983091983093983093

983091 Post et al lsquoEcological dynamics across the Arcticrsquo

INTA85_6_08_Ebingerindd 1215 26102009 1517



Charles K Ebinger and Evie Zambetakis

983089983090983089983094International Affairs 983096983093 983094 983090983088983088983097copy 983090983088983088983097 The Author(s) Journal Compilation copy 983090983088983088983097 Blackwell Publishing LtdThe Royal Institute of International Affairs

the migration of certain fish species off the coast of Greenland and in fish growthand size Any changes in marine life will also affect the nature of fisheries in theregion and will require policies to facilitate sustainable operations and address

potential conflict as fishing grounds and national boundaries overlapThe rapidity of Arctic melt is no longer the phantasmagoria of futuristic movies

but is occurring at a rate unfathomable just a few years ago In 983090983088983088983095 alone morethan one million square miles of ice melted leaving the region with only half theice that existed in 983089983097983093983088 In 983090983088983088983095 and again in 983090983088983088983096 the North-West Passage wasopen for two weeks and predictions are being made of ice-free Arctic summersas early as 983090983088983089983091983092

These events are not limited to the North American Arctic For the last fewyears the Northern Sea Route along Russiarsquos north coast has seen similar icechanges providing Russia with greater access to its vast Siberian resources andleading to bold assertions of its sovereignty over vast swathes of the polar sea

Indeed the region has already opened to global commerce with the announcementon 983090983089 August 983090983088983088983097 that for the first time two German commercial ships unaccom-panied by ice-breakers were traversing the Northern Sea Route on a voyage fromVladivostok to the Netherlands983093

In response to these developments in July 983090983088983088983097 NASArsquos Characterization of theArctic Sea Experiment began imagingmdashvia unmanned aerial vehiclesmdashthe typesof ice floating in the Arctic Ocean as they pass through the Fram Strait betweenGreenland and Svalbard and into the Atlantic Ocean After just two months ofobservation the data already showed the amount of multi-year ice to have declinedby 983095983092 per cent since 983089983097983096983096 and that the oldest ice covers only 983090 per cent of the Arctic

Ocean in contrast to 983090983088 per cent as recently as the 983089983097983096983088s983094

The prospect of longer ice-free periods in the Arctic has momentous implica-tions for the regionrsquos commercial development which risks further melting of theArctic ice In a 983090983088983088983097 report the United States Geological Survey (USGS) postu-lated that over 983097983088 billion barrels of oil 983089983094983094983097 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and983092983092 billion barrels of natural gas liquids are located in the Arctic (983096983092 per cent ofwhich could potentially be found in offshore areas)983095 With longer ice-free periodsnow available to explore for hydrocarbons a new scramble for oil and gas couldoccur especially if oil prices recover to levels above $983089983088983088 a barrel In addition newtechnological developments in marine surface and undersea logistics as well asdeep-water drilling technology have increased the salience of issues relating tothe extension of coastal statesrsquo respective continental shelves under the UnitedNations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and the Commission onthe Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS)

983092 Predictions range between 983090983088983089983088 and 983090983088983091983088983093 lsquoFirst commercial ships taking Russiarsquos Northeast Passagersquo EampE News 983090983093 Aug 983090983088983088983097 httpwwweenewsnet

climatewire983090983088983088983097983088983096983090983093983095 accessed 983090983093 Aug 983090983088983088983097983094 lsquoNASA flight studies Arctic icersquo 983090983090 July 983090983088983088983097 httparcticfocuscom983090983088983088983097983088983095983090983090nasa-flight-studies-arctic-

ice accessed 983090983090 July 983090983088983088983097983095 US Geological Survey lsquoAssessment of undiscovered oil and gas in the Arcticrsquo Science 983091983090983092 983093983097983091983089 983090983097 May 983090983088983088983097

pp 983089983089983095983093ndash983097 US Geological Survey Fact Sheet 983090983088983088983096 lsquoCircum-Arctic resource appraisal estimates of undiscov-ered oil and gas north of the Arctic Circlersquo httppubsusgsgovfs983090983088983088983096983091983088983092983097 accessed 983090983097 May 983090983088983088983097






Map 983089 The Arctic region

It is the thesis of the authors that Arctic melt does and will continue to poseeconomic military and environmental challenges to governance of the region andthat technological factors will most likely be a barrier to access in the short termand an enabler in the longer term Decreased sea ice gives countries more oppor-tunities to plant infrastructure to enable the exploitation of hydrocarbons and






minerals and to gain greater access for commercial shipping and fishing Whilethe military has a longstanding presence in the Arctic greater access means thenature of this presence will have to adjust to take on new roles and capabilities

such as increased capacity for search-and-rescue operations and border patrollingand submarine adaptation to reduced opaque ice cover and potentially increasedmonitoring of the waters by the Arctic states Working within existing institu-tions and building capacity is preferable to the proliferation of new institutionsalthough the full structure and scope of the legal and regulatory frameworks thatmay be needed are at present unclear What is clear is that the genie of increasedArctic access cannot be put back into the proverbial bottle

Environment

The Arctic is a complex environment While sea passages may be lsquoice-freersquo for a

portion of the year that term can be misleading Multi-year ice is receding butfreely floating younger uncharted ice is more dangerous to navigate

In addition to releasing harmful greenhouse gases the warming of the Arctictundra is leading to the proliferation of rapid large plant growth whichmdashlikeblack carbonmdashdarkens the landscape and further warms the icecaps983096 Meltingtundra also raises vexing problems about the construction of land-based energyinfrastructure in projects such as the Alaska Natural Gas Transportation Systemwhich would bring Alaskan and Canadian natural gas to the lower 983092983096 states andto southern Canada since the unstable ground may not be able to support theoverland pipeline infrastructure required for the project If these developments

continue as forecast they may focus attention increasingly on the possibilities forseaborne transportation of liquefied natural gas (LNG) with significant implica-tions for the geopolitics of the far north

As ice melts and waters warm fish are moving ever further northwards Fish donot recognize national boundaries which makes management of fisheries poten-tially contentious as stocks cross maritime frontiers Moreover as some species offish move north animals such as the walrus which live south of the far polar northare seeing their traditional sources of protein disappear and are at grave risk as aresult Inuit tribes report massive drops in the walrus and seal populations twovital commodities for their own livelihoods The polar bear already adverselyaffected by changes in fish and other marine populations has access to ever less ofthe floating ice that is vital to its habitat

In August 983090983088983088983097 the Obama administration approved the Arctic Fishery Manage-ment Plan to prevent the expansion of commercial fishing into Arctic watersexposed by ice meltmdashan area of approximately 983089983093983088983088983088983088 square nautical miles983097 The impact of the movement of existing fish stocks and the introduction of newspecies traditionally found in waters further south has yet to be fully assessed but

983096 David Ljunggren lsquoArctic tundra hotter boosting global warming BC expertrsquo Reuters 983091983089 July 983090983088983088983097983097 Allison Winter lsquoUS bans commercial fishing in warming Arcticrsquo Greenwire 983090983089 Aug 983090983088983088983097 httpwww

eenewsnetGreenwire983090983088983088983097983088983096983090983089983089 accessed 983090983089 Aug 983090983088983088983097






determining the impact of these new dynamics on the fragile ecosystem will be anecessary precondition to the effective management of any commercial fishing thatmay be allowed in the future The overall effectiveness of the Plan depends in part

on whether other Arctic states will follow suit as maintaining the right to rush tothese newly accessible fishing grounds without a sustainable management structurein place could deplete fish populations far sooner than is widely appreciated

Indigenous peoples

As noted above the indigenous peoples of the Arctic are intimately tied to theenvironment The effects of climate change on the region are a double-edged swordfor these communities who at present lack access to some of the basic amenitiesof modernity by virtue of geographic location geophysical terrain and neglect bycentral governments On the one hand melting ice will be to their disadvantage in

respect of their traditional way of life based on hunting and fishing On the otherhand an Arctic region that is more accessible to lucrative activities such as theexploitation of hydrocarbons fish and minerals will necessarily attract increasedgovernmental attention and this could benefit the citizens of the region

While these communities have gained limited measures of political powerthey have yet to exploit their economic potential Oil and mining companies willincreasingly have to consider the interests of the indigenous communities whenevaluating potential projects in the Arctic The Sami of northern Norway alreadyhave legal rights to certain local resources and are pushing for compensation fromthe companies that exploit them983089983088 The Inuit Circumpolar Council which repre-

sents the Inuit of Denmark Canada the US and Russia launched its Circum-polar Inuit Declaration on Arctic Sovereignty on 983090983096 April 983090983088983088983097 stating lsquoIt is ourright to freely determine our political status freely pursue our economic socialcultural and linguistic development and freely dispose of our natural wealthand resourcesrsquo983089983089 Denmark is scaling back its massive subsidies to GreenlandrsquosInuit population in line with the latterrsquos moves towards greater independenceand potential for wealth generation from the exploitation of hydrocarbons andminerals

The Canadian government set up the territory of Nunavut a decade agogranting some home-rule powers to the Canadian Inuit Canadian Prime MinisterStephen Harper has called for the construction of a new Arctic military trainingbase in Resolute Bay and the refurbishment of the deep-sea Arctic port atNanisivik a town in Nunavut in addition to the construction of six to eight newicebreakers While the global economic crisis has hampered the short- to medium-term feasibility of these aspirations it also brings to light the concurrent issuesaffecting the Inuit from northern 983121uebec whom the government encouraged tomove to Resolute in 983089983097983093983091 in order to ensure that Canadian citizens lived as far

983089983088 lsquoNot a barren country the rights of Arctic peoplesrsquo The Economist 983089983096 July 983090983088983088983097 p 983093983095983089983089 lsquoCircumpolar Inuit Declaration on Arctic Sovereigntyrsquo 983090983096 April 983090983088983088983097 See httpwwwitkcacircumpolar-

inuit-declaration-arctic-sovereignty accessed 983090983096 April 983090983088983088983097






north as possible to maintain sovereignty in the face of a Russian threat of invasionduring the Cold War983089983090 However those people have been abandoned to a regionlacking access to infrastructure education medical care and job opportunities

Alcoholism and suicide rates are high and many young people end up droppingout of school

The presence of these populations in the region extends the national interest ofArctic states such as Canada the US Denmark Sweden Norway and Russia farnorth but these communities must be treated as more than lsquoflag holdersrsquo at theircountriesrsquo respective northernmost borders

Resources and shipping routes

The potential hydrocarbon bonanza of the Arctic holds much potential economicbenefit for indigenous communities and the Arctic states they call home Althoughdetailed information on Arctic petroleum resources remains limited accordingto the USGS report it appears that the ratio of natural gas to oil in the regionrsquoshydrocarbon resources is approximately three to one983089983091 While the Arctic may havetremendous potential in the long run its contribution to energy resources in theshort term should not be overestimated as other areas are cheaper less contentiousand less technologically challenging to exploit

The technology required to recover Arctic resources year-round is not readilyavailable and will not become so in the short term Transport difficulties add to theproblems to be overcome Natural gas requires pipelines or expensive and complexliquefaction infrastructure The former is the less likely option because pipelines

would have to cover very large distances With technological breakthroughs in thedevelopment of shale oil resources in the lower 983092983096 states over the last several yearsmeanwhile US natural gas reserves have nearly quadrupled

Technology is a key barrier to Arctic access in other ways Icebreakers manynuclear powered are necessary for presence and power projection in the regionyear-round The various Arctic nations have widely divergent capabilities Forexample Russia has 983090983088 icebreakers Canada has 983089983090 and is working on budgetingfor 983096 more the US has to all intents and purposes just one functional icebreakerThese ships take eight to ten years to build and cost approximately $983089 billion eachThe global economic crisis has however put a strain on budgets and icebreakerfleets are unlikely to expand rapidly in the short term Nonetheless even if theUS started building tomorrow it would long remain far behind other Arctic statessuch as Russia and Canada taking decades and at least $983090983088 billion to catch up

In the light of forecast increases in shipping traffic in Arctic waters the ArcticCouncil conducted an Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment in 983090983088983088983097983089983092 callingfor mandatory regulations on ship construction standards which are currentlyvoluntary and vary greatly among countries The International Maritime

983089983090 Douglas Belkin lsquoDissenters in Canadarsquos Arcticrsquo Wall Street Journal (Eastern edition) 983089983090 Oct 983090983088983088983095 p A983097983089983091 US Geological Survey lsquoAssessment of undiscovered oil and gas in the Arcticrsquo US Geological Survey Fact

Sheet 983090983088983088983096 lsquoCircum-Arctic resource appraisalrsquo983089983092 See section lsquoThe Arctic Councilrsquo under lsquoGovernancersquo below






Organization (IMO) is discussing whether to adopt the recommendations of theassessment A final decision may be made soon

Much of the geology supporting the presence of hydrocarbons in the Arctic is

already located within the exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of the Arctic littoralstates983089983093 Therefore an extension of a statersquos continental shelf beyond its EEZ maynot necessarily yield that much more oil and gas The perception of strategic findshowever can be enough to motivate territorial claims and fuels the use of hyper-bole like lsquoscramble for the Arcticrsquo with reference to what is otherwise an orderlyprocess following international laws and norms

In addition to hydrocarbon resources new shipping routes opened up as theArctic ice vanishes will reduce substantially the maritime distances betweenEurope and Asia while also providing strategic alternatives to other countries suchas Japan which would have an interest in Arctic access owing to its current depen-dence on shipping through the Strait of Malacca for most of its energy supplies

Use of the North-West Passage over North America could shorten shippingroutes between Asia and the US east coast by 983093983088983088983088 miles However even thoughCanada is a strong ally of the US there are disputes between the two countries overthe waters of the Canadian archipelago which Canada claims are internal watersnot subject to the conventions of lsquoinnocent passagersquo983089983094 while the US regards them asa strait for international navigation through which ships should be allowed to passwithout interference by Canadian authorities While neither country wishes to seethe issue loom larger in their bilateral relations and both prefer at the moment toagree to disagree under the current position all US Coast Guard vessels are desig-nated as research vessels which are therefore required to request transit permission

from the Canadian government983089983095

This is not a long-term solution however Ifthe waterway does indeed become ever more ice-free in the future Canada will beforced formally to resolve its dispute with the United States over the status of theNorth West Passage

The Northern Sea Route over Eurasia is also important since it shortens shippingroutes between northern Europe and north-east Asia by 983092983088 per cent comparedwith the existing routes through the Suez or Panama canals983089983096 and takes thousandsof miles off maritime routes round Africa or Latin America While experts havediverse views over which new maritime passage will become more importantthere is a fledgling consensus that the Northern Sea Route will open sooner thanthe North-West Passagemdasha contention bolstered by the passage of the Germanships this year

As well as shorter shipping times the potential benefits of an ice-free Arcticthroughway include the ability to avoid dangerous chokepoints beset by piracy

983089983093 Tavis Potts and Clive Schofield lsquoCurrent legal developments the Arcticrsquo International Journal of Marine andCoastal Law 983090983091 983090983088983088983096 p 983089983093983092

983089983094 The right of lsquoinnocent passagersquo precludes such activities as scientific research fishing spying smugglingpolluting and weapons testing

983089983095 lsquoCanadian Arctic sovereigntyrsquo Canadian Parliamentary Information and Research Service 983090983094 Jan 983090983088983088983094httpwwwparlgccainformationlibraryPRBpubsprb983088983093983094983089-ehtm983075BRelations accessed 983090983096 April 983090983088983088983097

983089983096 Potts and Schofield lsquoCurrent legal developmentsrsquo p 983089983093983094






and lower transportation costs However despite optimistic public perceptionsoften shaped by the mainstream media the potential risks may actually counterand delay perceived benefits These routes will not necessarily be more efficient

Ice-capable ships required for the transit of Arctic waters are more expensive tobuild and procure and burn much more fuel than those currently used for long-distance transport Likewise while Arctic ice melt may be accelerating year-to-year variations can still occur meaning that passages open one year may be closedthe next The uncertainty of when and whether passages are open increases therisk of commercial cargoes incurring large demurrage charges if they are late inarriving at final destinations thereby offsetting some of the cost advantages ofshorter routes Finally the potential for dangerous weather patterns to emerge inwarming waters combined with difficult-to-navigate broken ice and the lack ofadequate maritime traffic management make Arctic transit a treacherous under-taking even under the best of conditions

Hydrocarbon prices and concerns about energy security are key drivers in accel-erating interest in the Arctic since high energy prices will generate new techno-logical developments that are difficult to justify with prices even at current levelsNew technology especially that which allows drilling in deep water also poten-tially opens vast areas of the Arctic to oil and gas exploration New technologythat can withstand ice flows will be of special benefit to Russia since most of thewaters along the Northern Sea Route are relatively shallow with huge sedimen-tary basins extending up to 983090983088983088 or 983091983088983088 miles offshore Conducting business inthe Arctic requires specialized ice-capable equipment ranging from drilling andtransportation infrastructure to established refuelling depots To the extent that

high energy prices support these costly projects they will accelerate commercialinterest in the region Domestic and global economic conditions will also affectthe progress scale and feasibility of major Arctic projects and efforts Canada forexample has already cut back on its proposed Arctic expenditures

Governance

The Arctic is geologically complex largely uncharted and rife with overlappingsovereignty claims that will affect all commercial activities involving hydrocarbonsand fisheries and will have a momentous impact on the regionrsquos indigenous population

States with territorial borders in the Arctic as generally defined are the USCanada Russia Denmark (via Greenland) and Norway (via Svalbard)mdashtogetherknown as the lsquoArctic Fiversquo While possessing no direct borders on the ArcticOcean Sweden Finland and Iceland are also usually considered Arctic statesthough this depends on which definition of lsquoArcticrsquo one uses Countries on everycontinent have a longstanding interest in the Arctic as evidenced by the number ofsignatories to the Svalbard and Spitsbergen treaties983089983097 Indeed South Korea China

983089983097 See note 983091983094 below The Spitsbergen Treaty of 983089983097983090983088 recognized Norwegian sovereignty over Svalbard whilegiving mineral rights to various countries Russia and Norway today continue to mine and export coalhere The 983089983097983090983093 Svalbard Act made Svalbard part of the Kingdom of Norway httpwwwbritannicacom EBcheckedtopic983093983095983093983097983090983089svalbard accessed 983090983090 July 983090983088983088983097






Japan and India have all sponsored Arctic scientific expeditions Yet other nationsclaim within various international frameworks that the Arctic should remain opento all nations under the international law concept of the lsquocommon heritage of

mankindrsquo983090983088

With increased human activity come a myriad of management and sovereigntyissues Tourism to the region by cruise ships is on the rise raising concerns aboutthe ability of each state in the region to provide search-and-rescue facilities ifa large ship were suddenly to find itself in danger Many of these ships are notice-capable and even though Arctic ice is melting year-to-year variation can stillbe dramatic with uncharted broken ice and passages open one year and frozen thenext Regulation of maritime traffic will also require accident clean-up capacityThis problem will rise dramatically in importance if oil and gas production accel-erates Oil spills are more difficult to clean up in cold icy conditions As oil decom-poses slowly ice interferes with the process while technology to handle spills inthese temperatures is lacking Spills can also cause greying of the icecap therebyspeeding melting rates

Strengthened legal and regulatory frameworks in the Arctic will be necessaryto attract international investment and development The debate on the futureof Arctic governance centres on whether to create new or use existing multi-national frameworks Although the US enforces UNCLOS without havingratified it it lags behind the rest of the Arctic states on its Arctic policy and inasserting its presence In the last days of the Bush administration and with littlefanfare a ten-page National Security and Homeland Security Presidential Direc-tive on Arctic policy was releasedmdashthe first review since 983089983097983097983092983090983089 The directive

was based on developments in the region stemming from climate change andincreased human activity the likely accessibility of vast mineral hydrocarbonand fishing resources and the recognition that the US has lsquobroad and fundamentalnational security interests in the Arctic regionrsquo983090983090 It addresses international gover-nance extended continental shelf and boundary issues the promotion of inter-national scientific cooperation maritime transportation economic and energyissues environmental protection and conservation of natural resources andrecognizes that lsquothe most effective way to achieve international recognition andlegal certainty for [its] extended continental shelf is through the procedures avail-able to the States Parties to the UN Convention on the Law of the Searsquo983090983091

983090983088 lsquoThe international seabed (ie the seabed beyond the limits of national jurisdiction) parts of which are believedto be rich in minerals is not subject to national appropriation and has been designated a ldquocommon heritageof mankindrdquo by the Declaration of Principles Governing the Seabed (983089983097983095983088) and the Law of the Sea treatyActivities in the international seabed also known as ldquothe Areardquo are expected to be carried out in the collec-tive interests of all states and benefits are expected to be shared equitablyrsquo High seas and seabedrsquo EncyclopediaBritannica Online httpwwwbritannicacomEBcheckedtopic983090983097983089983088983089983089international-law983090983091983091983093983089983095High-seas-and-seabed983075ref=ref983095983097983093983088983096983091 accessed 983090983090 July 983090983088983088983097

983090983089 National Security Presidential Directive 983094983094 (NSPD-983094983094) Homeland Security Presidential Directive 983090983093 (HSPD-983090983093) 983097 Jan 983090983088983088983097

983090983090 NSPD-983094983094 HSPD-983090983093 section B 983089 lsquoNational security and homeland security interests in the Arcticrsquo983090983091 NSPD-983094983094 HSPD-983090983093 section D 983089 lsquoExtended continental shelf and boundary issuesrsquo






The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea

UNCLOS was created in 983089983097983096983090 Any signatory that can prove that its continentalshelf extends beyond 983090983088983088 nautical miles (nm) from its shoreline is automatically

entitled to legal rights allowing it to exploit oil gas and minerals in this zoneThis provision is a one-off opportunity the extension must be claimed withinten years of signing the convention Countries can extend their claim to 983091983093983088 nm ifscientific proofmdashbased on geologymdashcan be obtained showing that the underseacontinental plateridge is an extension of territory Determining that this is thecase is extremely complex expensive and time-consuming as the ambiguities inarticle 983095983094 of UNCLOS which defines the continental shelf cannot possibly coverevery circumstance owing to the difficult and varied geology and topography ofoverlapping claims983090983092

The UN lacks the institutional capacity to streamline this lengthy review

process Consequently some states have called for the creation of a new institu-tion to address this issue In the view of the authors member states should committo building capacity inside UNCLOS and the CLCS rather than creating yetanother international institution Moreover completely shifting authority froman existing organization to a new one will disrupt policies and programmes thatare progressing along different tracks and at varying speeds for example appli-cations to the CLCS which have different deadlines depending on the date ofsubmission by each state The problem is exacerbated by the fact that the US hasyet to sign UNCLOS even though it stands to gain considerable territory fromratification As a non-signatory state the US has little credibility in any discussionon Arctic sovereignty and cannot assert rights over resources off its Alaskan coast

beyond the 983090983088983088 nm of its EEZNotwithstanding US enforcement of UNCLOS a number of members of

Congress are concerned about the failure of the US to ratify the conventionNonetheless in the Senatemdashwhich has to approve UNCLOS before ratificationcan take placemdashthere is a handful of individuals opposed to ratification fearful ofceding too much sovereignty to a supranational organization and of agreeing toan unfavourable allocation of resources These senators believe that key provisionsof UNCLOS could paralyse the unfettered movement of the US Navy the mostpowerful navy in the world They consider customary international law sufficientto deal with these so-called lsquonew Arctic maritime issuesrsquo since general international

cooperation has hitherto prevailedThe debate over signing UNCLOS is politically interesting in that it has brought

the oil industry the military and the environmental community together on thesame side of the debate These groups realize that without stable legal frameworksthere will be no oil and gas exploration and this will be detrimental to US nationaland energy security983090983093 The navyrsquos leadership has pointed out that there are frame-works under the convention that will protect the navyrsquos right to patrol the Arctic

983090983092 UNCLOS art 983095983094 httpwwwunorgDeptslosconvention_agreementstextsunclospart983094htm accessed983090983096 April 983090983088983088983097

983090983093 Telis Demos lsquoArctic Circle oil rushrsquo Fortune 983090983088 Aug 983090983088983088983095 p 983089983089






Environmental groups want the US to join UNCLOS so that it has a seat at thetable to ensure the protection of the Arcticrsquos flora and fauna The real absurdity ofthe US not ratifying UNCLOS is that while the US Senate dithers other states

are rushing out to claim extensions to their respective continental shelves By notsigning the US is effectively ceding over 983090983088983088983088983088983088 square miles of undersea terri-tory in the Arctic not to mention another 983089983088983088983088983088983088 square miles off the Gulf ofMexico and east coast which together are equivalent in size to two Californias983090983094

The US currently relies on customary international law to govern its Arcticactivities Customary international law derives from the consistent generalpractices of states out of a sense of legal obligation as codified in the ViennaConvention on the Law of Treaties and holds unless it conflicts with the obliga-tions of a member state under the United Nations Charter983090983095 The lsquohigh seasrsquo is thedesignation traditionally given to the areas that are beyond the territorial watersof states and are therefore not subject to national jurisdiction or appropriation (as

exclusive economic zones territorial seas internal waters or archipelagic waters)while the lsquointernational seabedrsquo constitutes the lsquocommon heritage of mankindbeyond the limits of any national jurisdictionrsquo983090983096 However by signing the conven-tion Washington would enhance its tools for combating maritime traffickingand piracy strengthen its jurisdiction over its Arctic backyard and the potentialresources it contains and create a more stable international framework with cleardelimitations of sovereignty allowing exploration and production in the region tobecome more attractive to energy and mining companies should the technologyand market conditions for their exploitation become available

Given the technological risks of operating in such an environment and the

huge capital and operating costs involved it is vital that clear and unambiguouslegal and regulatory frameworks be put in place A crystal-clear legal and regula-tory regime is a prerequisite not only for energy and mining projects but also forthe effective management of fisheries the operation of commercial shipping andthe management of accidents that occur beyond national boundaries as well as anyother potential activities that may arise983090983097 US ratification of the convention willreinforce and protect existing international law regarding the movement of USmilitary and civilian ships as well as the rights of innocent passage transit passagearchipelagic sea lanes passage and freedom of the high seas

Critics of UNCLOS cite the lack of transparency of article 983095983094 as one of theconventionrsquos major flaws Under article 983095983094 submissions by Arctic states are notmade readily available to all other member states with the result that states areunable to challenge assertionsmdashespecially as to extensions of the outer continental

983090983094 Neil King Jr lsquoSea treaty unites unlikely allies environmentalists oil interests and military urge Senate to backpactrsquo Wall Street Journal (Eastern edition) 983090983090 Aug 983090983088983088983095 p A983094

983090983095 Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties signed Vienna 983090983091 May 983089983097983094983097 entered into force 983090983095 Jan 983089983097983096983088 http fletchertuftsedumultitextsBH983093983091983096txt accessed 983090983090 July 983090983088983088983097 lsquoInternational law an overviewrsquo CornellUniversity Legal Information Institute httptopicslawcornelleduwexinternational_law accessed 983090983090

July 983090983088983088983097983090983096 lsquoHigh seas and seabedrsquo Encyclopedia Britannica Online983090983097 Scott G Borgerson lsquoThe national interest and the Law of the Searsquo Council on Foreign Relations special report

no 983092983094 May 983090983088983088983097 p 983090983088






shelfmdashsince they often do not see the full logic behind each statersquos argumentationNot seeing the actual submissions sometimes makes it difficult for signatory statesto understand the justification for decisions rendered by the CLCS In addition

opponents of UNCLOS argue that the language in article 983095983094 is ambiguous inmany places leaving critical definitions of many terms unclear They also arguethat while the CLCS is supposed to be a technical organization it is in realitytoo often governed by political imperatives Critics also contend that the diversetimetables for final applications for territorial extensions make it difficult for statesto coordinate and cooperate among themselves to resolve their differences in atransparent manner

Protection of international commercial transit is especially salient with refer-ence to the safe transportation of oil and gas which could become a major issueonce commercial and technological changes allow the large-scale exploitation ofArctic resources UNCLOS clearly defines what constitutes a statersquos EEZ (983090983088983088 nm

from its coastline) contiguous zone (983090983092 nm from the baselines by which the breadthof the territorial sea is measured) and territorial sea (width of 983089983090 nm from the coastalstatersquos baseline)983091983088 The failure of the US to join UNCLOS represents an abnegationof US leadership and allows vitally important maritime states such as Malaysia andIndonesia to cite the US refusal to sign UNCLOS as one of the principal reasonswhy they have declined to join the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) whichblocks shipments of nuclear and missile technology to rogue states983091983089

Russia Norway Canada and Denmark are already in line with extension appli-cations to the CLCS Russia was the first to submit a claim in 983090983088983088983089 howeverowing to the insufficient evidence presented it must re-submit its application by

983090983088983089983089 Norway submitted in 983090983088983088983094 while Canada must submit by 983090983088983089983091 and Denmarkby 983090983088983089983092

The Arctic Council

The Arctic Council founded in 983089983097983097983094 is not an international organization with afirm legal charter but rather an international forum designed to foster coopera-tion and collaboration on Arctic issues983091983090 During the deliberations that formed theorganization the US was adamant that the Arctic Council should not as part of itsmandate discuss national security issues Member states are satisfied that within itswell-defined limits the system serves as a good forum for the expression of theirviews and concerns Almost all the members for a variety of reasons are opposedto setting up a new system to broadening the Councilrsquos mandate or to cedingsovereignty over the region to an international organization However most of

983091983088 Borgerson lsquoThe national interest and the Law of the Searsquo pp 983090983090ndash983091 lsquoContiguous zonersquo Encyclopedia Britannica Online httpwwwbritannicacomEBcheckedtopic983089983091983092983096983088983089contiguous-zone accessed 983090 Feb 983090983088983088983097

983091983089 King lsquoSea treaty unites unlikely alliesrsquo Charles Wolf Jr lsquoAsiarsquos nonproliferation laggards China India Paki-stan Indonesia and Malaysiarsquo Wall Street Journal Asia 983097 Feb 983090983088983088983097 The PSI was announced by President GeorgeW Bush on 983091983089 May 983090983088983088983091 it is unclear whether this US-led initiative is legal under or conflicts with UNCLOSand whether accession to UNCLOS would impede the PSI

983091983090 Arctic Council members are Canada Denmark (including Greenland and the Faroe Islands) Finland IcelandNorway Sweden the Russian Federation and the US httparctic-councilorg accessed 983090 Feb 983090983088983088983097






the Council members realize that the Arctic is changing rapidly and that increasedcooperation on issues of trans-border interest must be cultivated The US reiteratedits commitment to the Arctic Council as a lsquohigh-level forumrsquo in 983090983088983088983097 while being

open to reorganization and updating of the forumrsquos structure the US reaffirmed itsaversion to any expansion of the Councilrsquos expressly limited mandate983091983091

The Ilulissat Declaration signed on 983090983096 May 983090983088983088983096 emphasizes that UNCLOSis a commitment of the entire group and that there is no need for a new inter-national legal regime Most organs of the US government support Ilulissat eventhough the US has not signed UNCLOS

The Councilrsquos 983090983088983088983097 Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment recommends that theeight Arctic states formulate a harmonized search-and-rescue instrument whichinvolves pooling their financial and technical resources to meet the challenges ofthe region The assessment also includes recommendations about harmonized andmandatory shipbuilding standards for ships navigating Arctic waters in coopera-

tion with the IMO improved navigation infrastructure including navigationcharts and communications systems development of a harmonized marine trafficawareness system guidelines on oil and gas exploration and technology transferfor responding to environmental accidents under challenging Arctic conditions983091983092

Bilateral issues

Because the Arctic is a semi-enclosed sea encircled by littoral states extensions ofcontinental shelves and delimitations of maritime boundaries will lead invariablyto overlapping sovereignty claims

Norway has been a major source of energy security for Europe with newdiscoveries of Arctic gas especially in the light of recent Russian curtailments ofgas to Europe through Ukraine With additional gas pipelines planned by Russiafrom its own Arctic and other gas resources Norwegian gas will remain a criticalcomponent of European energy supply This importance of Norway for Europeanenergy security means however that Norway must explore ever further north-wards creating tensions with Russia in terms of territorial claims over the disputedboundary of the Barents Sea Norway claims the Gakkel Ridge as an extension ofits continental shelf via the Svalbard Islands983091983093 Naval manoeuvres by Russia havedisrupted Norwegian air traffic in offshore areas and there are often aerial harrass-ment between Russian fighter jets and Norwegian jets trying to intercept themat the border Norwaymdasha NATO state bordering Russiamdashhas moved its centreof military operations from its southern location in Jaringttaring outside Stavenger toReiter outside Bodoslash in the north983091983094 reinforcing the strategic importance of thehigh north to both Norwegian and NATO foreign policy

983091983091 NSPD-983094983094 HSPD-983090983093 section C 983090 lsquoInternational governancersquo983091983092 Arctic Council Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment Report 983090983088983088983097 httparcticportalorgenpameamsa-983090983088983088983097-

report accessed 983089 Sept 983090983088983088983097983091983093 Terrence W Haverluk lsquoThe age of cryopoliticsrsquo Focus on Geography 983093983088 983091 Winter 983090983088983088983095 p 983090983091983094 lsquoNorway moves military northrsquo Siku News 983093 Aug 983090983088983088983097 httpwwwsikunewscomarthtmlartid=983094983095983094983091

ampcatid=983095 accessed 983093 Aug 983090983088983088983097






The Spitsbergen Treaty of 983097 February 983089983097983090983088 grants Norway territorial sovereigntyover what is now known as the Svalbard archipelago At the time the treaty wasnegotiated states had the exclusive legal right to resources in their territorial waters

up to a distance of 983091 miles from the coastline However the treaty also providesfor equal access to Spitsbergenrsquos resources for all signatory powers983091983095 On this basisRussia has operated a coaling station there for many years With changes underinternational law brought about by UNCLOS and other legal regimes over theyears Russia argues that as a signatory to the treaty it has the right to look forresources further offshore though clearly under a resource extraction regime thatwould remain under Norwayrsquos legal jurisdiction The significance of these claimsshould not be underestimated especially given Norwayrsquos membership of NATODuring the Cold War the region between Svalbard and northern Norway was thecentre of a dangerous cat-and-mouse game between NATO and the Soviet UnionAt that time Soviet strategic doctrine was based on the necessity either before the

outbreak of a conflict with the West or in its earliest hours to move its northern fleetout of Murmansk and into the North Atlantic through the SvalbardNorwegiangap the same is true of Russian strategic doctrine today This action was deemedvital for Russiarsquos force projection in the Atlantic or in the worst case for a strategicnuclear strike against the American east coast Clearly Moscowrsquos worst fear is thatNATO could bottle its fleet up severely affecting the balance of forces in a majorconflict

Even since the end of the Cold War and its attendant fears of nuclear annihi-lation Russia has remained nervous that offshore listening platforms might beinstalled on offshore oil and gas platforms providing NATO with important

capabilities for monitoring Russian commercial and strategic activities in theregion

Two of the most sensitive issues involving claims for additional offshoreterritorial extensions under UNCLOS centre on conflicting claims by RussiaDenmark and Canada over the Lomonosov and Mendeleev Ridges Each countryclaims that the ridges are natural geological extensions of its territory and each iscollecting geological data to support its claims In August 983090983088983088983095 Russian explorersplanted a titanium flag on the Lomonosov seabed mainly for domestic politicalconsumption but also to send a message about their perceptions of sovereigntyto the other Arctic states In March 983090983088983088983097 Russia announced plans to establish amilitary force to protect its Arctic interests as the region is expected to be anextremely important supplier of energy resources within the next 983089983088ndash983089983093 years983091983096

While some of Russiarsquos actions may be perceived as aggressive fears about thepotential militarization of the Arctic at this stage are unwarranted In contrast toalarmist rhetoric by some conservative think-tanks relations among the Arcticpowers have thus far been characterized by a spirit of cooperation with outstandingdisputes managed peacefully In May 983090983088983088983097 Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov

983091983095 The nine original signatories to the treaty were the US Denmark France Italy Japan Netherlands NorwaySweden and the UK Total signatories today number over 983092983088

983091983096 Tom Parfitt lsquoRussia plans military force to patrol Arctic as ldquocold rushrdquo intensifiesrsquo Guardian 983090983096 March 983090983088983088983097httpwwwguardiancoukworld983090983088983088983097mar983090983096russia-gas-oil-arctic-nato accessed 983094 April 983090983088983088983097






and US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called for cooperation between theirtwo countries in the region The US continues to request the Russian Federationto ratify the USndashRussia maritime boundary agreement delineating the maritime

boundary between Russia and Alaska through the Bering Strait and Chukchi Seainto the Arctic Ocean983091983097 Russia in turn called for increased cooperation withCanada in Arctic management at a press conference on 983091983088 June 983090983088983088983097 Soon there-after Prime Minister Vladimir Putin declared 983091983095 million acres in the RussianArctic as a national park signalling that Russia apparently believes it has more togain by following international law and demonstrating ecological sensitivity thanby aggressively asserting its sovereignty

Among the other Arctic littoral states Canada is setting up a deep-waterdocking port on Baffin Island at Nanisivik and opening an Arctic military trainingcentre in Resolute Bay in an attempt to bolster its territorial claims in its highnorth The US and Canada have unresolved overlapping claims not only over the

international boundary between the two countries through the Beaufort Sea butalso on the sea floor Resolution of this matter is especially important since thereis believed to be tremendous oil potential off the shore of Alaska which is oftenreferred to in the petroleum industry as the lsquonext Gulf of Mexicorsquo

Further to the east Denmark and Canada have a territorial dispute over HansIsland located in the Nares Strait which separates Greenland from EllesmereIsland Denmark claims that Hans Island is part of Greenland which has been anintegral part of Denmark since 983089983097983093983091 The continental shelf between Greenlandand Canada was delimited by Canada and Denmark in a decision ratified by theUN on 983089983095 December 983089983097983095983091983092983088 The treaty does not draw a line through Hans Island

however as its status is still in dispute Since then both countries have planted flagson the island the Danes in 983089983097983096983092 (provoked by the presence of a Canadian explorerfrom Dome Petroleum) and the Canadians in 983090983088983088983093 Hans Island has taken on asignificance disproportionate to its size as a symbol of Arctic sovereignty for thetwo countries because of the additional potentially resource-rich access it couldgrant to either nation

Greenland obtained self-government from the Danish parliament in 983089983097983095983097 Itthen voted for increased self-rule in November 983090983088983088983096983092983089 The issue of Denmarkrsquossovereignty over Greenland which is based on historical exploration and settle-ment became more complex on 983090983088 June 983090983088983088983097 when Greenland obtained a newself-government agreement under which it is recognized by the internationalcommunity as a separate entity from Denmark with control of its internal affairsand of any international agreements pertaining specifically to Greenland Denmarkwill retain control over foreign affairs defence and finances but will graduallydecrease its substantial annual subsidy (currently comprising nearly 983094983088 per cent of

983091983097 NSPD-983094983094 HSPD-983090983093 section D 983092 c lsquoExtended continental self and houndary issuesrsquo983092983088 UN lsquoAgreement between the Government of the Kingdom of Denmark and the Government of Canada

relating to the Delimitation of the Continental Shelf between Greenland and Canadarsquo 983089983095 Dec 983089983097983095983091 http wwwunorgDeptslosLEGISLATIONANDTREATIESPDFFILESTREATIESDNK-CAN983089983097983095983091CSPDF accessed 983090 Feb 983090983088983088983097

983092983089 lsquoGreenlandrsquo CIA World Fact Book httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookgeos glhtml accessed 983090983090 July 983090983088983088983097






Greenlandrsquos total government revenues)983092983090 and cede some control of Greenlandrsquosnatural resources Greenlandrsquos new status will move it towards independence Thisdevelopment was anticipated by many analysts given the possibility of massive oil

gas and diamond reserves beneath and around GreenlandFollowing Greenlandrsquos most recent move towards greater autonomy Danish

members of parliament approved a plan to set up an Arctic military command andtask force for 983090983088983089983088ndash983090983088983089983092 which will focus on Greenland and the Faroe IslandsDanish armed forces will have a greater role as melting ice increases the geopoliticalsignificance of the region plans include the establishment of a joint-service ArcticCommand and an Arctic Response Force that may include combat aircraft and theexpansion of the military base at Thule Greenland983092983091

Already additional new areas of concern are arising which pose geopoliticalchallenges for the region For example in October 983090983088983088983095 a new small island wasdiscovered off the coast of Greenland when a shifting ice pack to the north-east

revealed what was dubbed lsquoStray Dog Westrsquo by expedition leader Dennis SchmittAlthough it was formed from land debris and erosion deposits rather than being atectonic creation its emergence from the melting ice is an example of how muchis still unknown about the complex geography of the region Should Stray DogWest fulfil the criteria required to gain definition as an island it will be added tomaps and will grant Denmark additional fishing rights and seabed claims Otherlocations that were thought to be parts of singular entities such as Warming Islandand Franz Joseph Land were revealed to be multiple land masses once the iceconnecting them melted983092983092

As noted above the question of access to the Arctic is relevant not only to the

states in the region but also to those further south Arctic shipping routes are anattractive prospect in theory to China Japan South Korea and Taiwan SouthKorea is one of the major builders of ice-capable vessels China carried out Arcticresearch in 983089983097983097983097 and 983090983088983088983091 and in 983090983088983088983092 built an Arctic satellite observation centreat New Olson Spitsbergen Island in Norway983092983093 The construction of such centreshas been permitted by the Norwegian government to the original signatories tothe 983089983097983090983088 Spitsbergen Treaty and China Japan Germany Italy France and SouthKorea among others have taken advantage of the opportunity Chinarsquos applicationto the Arctic Council for permanent observer status however was turned downin 983090983088983088983097 and the full ministerial meeting of the Council will not convene again toconsider applications until 983090983088983089983089 Also turned down were applications by the EUSouth Korea and Italy983092983094 Other contentious issues centre on whaling and sealingCanada Denmark and Norway disagreeing with the EU ban on seal products

983092983090 lsquoGreenlandrsquo CIA World Fact Book983092983091 lsquoDenmark plans forces for Arcticrsquo BBC News 983089983094 July 983090983088983088983097 httpnewsbbccoukgoprfr-983090hi

europe983096983089983093983092983089983096983089stm accessed 983090983090 July 983090983088983088983097983092983092 Astrid Wendlandt lsquoNorthern pebbles new pawns in Arctic chess gamersquo Reuters 983091983089 Oct 983090983088983088983095983092983093 lsquoChina joins Arctic studies committeersquo 983090983088 April 983090983088983088983093 httpwwwchinaorgcnenglishscitech983089983090983094983091983089983088htm

accessed 983090 Feb 983090983088983088983097983092983094 lsquoArctic Council rejects EUrsquos observer applicationrsquo 983091983088 April 983090983088983088983097 httpeuobservercom983096983096983093983090983096983088983092983091 accessed

983089983089 May 983090983088983088983097 Non-Arctic states with permanent observer status are France Germany Poland Spain theNetherlands and the UK Non-Arctic states with lsquoad-hoc statusrsquo are China Italy and South Korea






Challenges to governance

While the Arctic Council and Arctic Five want more effective implementation ofexisting regimes the EU advocates establishing a new regime an internationaltreaty for the protection of the Arctic The European Parliament sees Arctic policyas vital to European security and in March 983090983088983088983096 stated that conventions need to bealtered to reflect the potential new energy balance stemming from the discoveryof Arctic resources while reducing the size of Norwegian claims in the ArcticWhile the EU remains committed to UNCLOS and recognizes the work of theArctic Council the European Parliament has called for specific EU Arctic policiesto increase the role that the EU can play in the region to enhance current multi-lateral agreements or make up for the shortcomings of what it considers to be afragmented legal framework983092983095

Given the USGS assessment of the potential for substantial oil and gas reserves

in the regionmdashincluding within national EEZsmdashit is possible that a serious diplo-matic row may at some point break out among those nations that border the regionincluding those that want their territorial claims extended those that argue thatsome of the Arctic belongs to no one and that they therefore should have unfet-tered access and those that believe that given its fragile and unique nature theregion (or at least large areas of it) is the common heritage of humankind andshould come under international jurisdiction

Conclusion

The Arctic is governed by international customary maritime law in the form ofUNCLOS and cooperation is fostered by the Arctic Council in addition to bilat-eral agreements or understandings between states with competing claims TheEU while not having an official position on the matter also supports a multilat-eral approach This has been and continues to be the context in which the Arcticstates operate and there is reason to believe that this spirit of cooperation willcontinue The uncertainty here lies in the timeline as the horizon for an easilyaccessible Arctic Ocean lies far in the future The point at which climate condi-tions ice-capable technology high energy prices delineation of maritime andcontinental shelf boundaries and legal and regulatory frameworks for manage-ment of maritime traffic will converge sufficiently to render the region a practical

prospect for investment and utilization is a long way off thereby rendering talkof any potential lsquoheating uprsquo or lsquoArctic scramblersquo inappropriate However whileterminology connoting speed may not accurately characterize the Arctic regionthis does not mean that action must not be taken now to ensure preparedness and

983092983095 lsquoClimate change and international securityrsquo paper from the High Representative and the European Commis-sion to the European Council S983089983089983091983088983096 983089983092 March 983090983088983088983096 httpwwwconsiliumeuropaeuueDocscms_Data docspressDataenreports983097983097983091983096983095pdf accessed 983094 April 983090983088983088983097 Communication from the Commission to theEuropean Parliament and the Council lsquoThe European Union and the Arctic regionrsquo COM(983090983088983088983096)983095983094983091(final)Brussels 983090983088Nov 983090983088983088983096 httpeur-lexeuropaeuLexUriServLexUriServdouri=COM983090983088983088983096983088983095983094983091FINENPDF accessed 983094 April 983090983088983088983097






the development of a comprehensive economic environmental legal and politicalapproach to Arctic governance

Arctic access and exploration are not matters for the future The Arcticrsquos time

has already come however it will gain in geopolitical importance only whenthere is a confluence of factors that focus attention on the region

983089 Oil prices will have to rise and be expected to remain high enough to justifythe costly technological and infrastructure projects that will take many yearsto amortize

983090 Ice-capable technology will have to be available to ensure that access to theregion can be sustained over time despite seasonal and year-to-year ice fluctu-ations

983091 The geopolitical community must be convinced that the opportunities forcommercial development will not exacerbate greenhouse gas emissions and

the degradation of the Arctic environment to an unacceptable degree983092 Interest in new maritime shipping routes already high will continue to

increase in direct proportion to geopolitical tensions in traditional shippingchokepoints and channelsmdashespecially where potential military conflicts arebrewing

983093 Heightened commercial and other interests in the Arctic will rise when bound-aries are clearly delineated and legal frameworks in place to create a favourableinvestment environment and when all Arctic states agree to abide by inter-nationally recognized legally binding agreements and codes of conduct

Speaking as Americans the authors note that the US has over 983089983088983088983088 miles of Arctic

coastline If the US wishes to play a leading role in creating an effective regime forthe region as well as protecting its own national interests Washington must focusfunds and policy attention on the Arctic The actions it should take include signingUNCLOS putting innovation to work on ice-capable technologies and militarytraining cooperating with Canada and other Arctic states on improved manage-ment of maritime traffic research efforts and search-and-rescue and accidentclean-up capacities and building a sizeable ice-capable commercial scientificand naval fleet including investment of at least $983089983088 billion in building ten newicebreakers with another $983089 billion for maintenance of existing ships until thenew ones are ready for use The time for action is now Letrsquos get on with the job





the migration of certain fish species off the coast of Greenland and in fish growthand size Any changes in marine life will also affect the nature of fisheries in theregion and will require policies to facilitate sustainable operations and address

potential conflict as fishing grounds and national boundaries overlapThe rapidity of Arctic melt is no longer the phantasmagoria of futuristic movies

but is occurring at a rate unfathomable just a few years ago In 983090983088983088983095 alone morethan one million square miles of ice melted leaving the region with only half theice that existed in 983089983097983093983088 In 983090983088983088983095 and again in 983090983088983088983096 the North-West Passage wasopen for two weeks and predictions are being made of ice-free Arctic summersas early as 983090983088983089983091983092

These events are not limited to the North American Arctic For the last fewyears the Northern Sea Route along Russiarsquos north coast has seen similar icechanges providing Russia with greater access to its vast Siberian resources andleading to bold assertions of its sovereignty over vast swathes of the polar sea

Indeed the region has already opened to global commerce with the announcementon 983090983089 August 983090983088983088983097 that for the first time two German commercial ships unaccom-panied by ice-breakers were traversing the Northern Sea Route on a voyage fromVladivostok to the Netherlands983093

In response to these developments in July 983090983088983088983097 NASArsquos Characterization of theArctic Sea Experiment began imagingmdashvia unmanned aerial vehiclesmdashthe typesof ice floating in the Arctic Ocean as they pass through the Fram Strait betweenGreenland and Svalbard and into the Atlantic Ocean After just two months ofobservation the data already showed the amount of multi-year ice to have declinedby 983095983092 per cent since 983089983097983096983096 and that the oldest ice covers only 983090 per cent of the Arctic

Ocean in contrast to 983090983088 per cent as recently as the 983089983097983096983088s983094

The prospect of longer ice-free periods in the Arctic has momentous implica-tions for the regionrsquos commercial development which risks further melting of theArctic ice In a 983090983088983088983097 report the United States Geological Survey (USGS) postu-lated that over 983097983088 billion barrels of oil 983089983094983094983097 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and983092983092 billion barrels of natural gas liquids are located in the Arctic (983096983092 per cent ofwhich could potentially be found in offshore areas)983095 With longer ice-free periodsnow available to explore for hydrocarbons a new scramble for oil and gas couldoccur especially if oil prices recover to levels above $983089983088983088 a barrel In addition newtechnological developments in marine surface and undersea logistics as well asdeep-water drilling technology have increased the salience of issues relating tothe extension of coastal statesrsquo respective continental shelves under the UnitedNations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and the Commission onthe Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS)

983092 Predictions range between 983090983088983089983088 and 983090983088983091983088983093 lsquoFirst commercial ships taking Russiarsquos Northeast Passagersquo EampE News 983090983093 Aug 983090983088983088983097 httpwwweenewsnet

climatewire983090983088983088983097983088983096983090983093983095 accessed 983090983093 Aug 983090983088983088983097983094 lsquoNASA flight studies Arctic icersquo 983090983090 July 983090983088983088983097 httparcticfocuscom983090983088983088983097983088983095983090983090nasa-flight-studies-arctic-

ice accessed 983090983090 July 983090983088983088983097983095 US Geological Survey lsquoAssessment of undiscovered oil and gas in the Arcticrsquo Science 983091983090983092 983093983097983091983089 983090983097 May 983090983088983088983097

pp 983089983089983095983093ndash983097 US Geological Survey Fact Sheet 983090983088983088983096 lsquoCircum-Arctic resource appraisal estimates of undiscov-ered oil and gas north of the Arctic Circlersquo httppubsusgsgovfs983090983088983088983096983091983088983092983097 accessed 983090983097 May 983090983088983088983097















Environment
















Indigenous peoples



















































Governance
















































no 983092983094 May 983090983088983088983097 p 983090983088












The Arctic Council















Bilateral issues




























































Conclusion

































Environment
















Indigenous peoples



















































Governance
















































no 983092983094 May 983090983088983088983097 p 983090983088












The Arctic Council















Bilateral issues




























































Conclusion


























Indigenous peoples



















































Governance
















































no 983092983094 May 983090983088983088983097 p 983090983088












The Arctic Council















Bilateral issues




























































Conclusion






























































Governance
















































no 983092983094 May 983090983088983088983097 p 983090983088












The Arctic Council















Bilateral issues




























































Conclusion































































no 983092983094 May 983090983088983088983097 p 983090983088












The Arctic Council















Bilateral issues




























































Conclusion






























The Arctic Council















Bilateral issues




























































Conclusion





























Bilateral issues




























































Conclusion









































































Conclusion




















11 arctic melt ebinger zambetakis(1)

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