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Phan tch rui ro bang Crystal Ball Tran quang Trung

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AP DUNG PHAN TCH RUI RO BANG CRYSTAL BALL

1. Trong quan tr san xuat x Truc trac may moc va sa cha

Nha may co mot he thong san xuat hoat ong 24 /24, 360 ngay trong nam. He thong nay moi gi tao ra 500 $ li nhuan cho nha may. Thnh thoang he thong cung b truc trac va phai c sa cha. So lieu qua kh cho thay khoang thi gian hoat ong (tnh bang gi) gia hai lan hong lien tiep co phan phoi nh sau

Thi gian hoat ong Xac suat10 0.05 20 0.05 40 0.05 70 0.05 110 0.05 160 0.05 220 0.05 290 0.05 370 0.05 460 0.05 560 0.05 670 0.05 790 0.05 920 0.05

1060 0.05 1210 0.05 1370 0.05 1540 0.05 1720 0.05 1920 0.05

Thi gian hoat ong trung bnh xap x 675 gi Khi he thong truc trac, neu thi gian sa cha keo dai hn 3 ngay th theo ieu kien bao hanh nha cung cap thiet b se thay he thong khac e nha may tiep tuc


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san xuat, s thay the nay c thc hien trong 1 ngay. Thi gian ngng hoat ong cua nha may c thong ke t so lieu qua kh co phan phoi sau

Thi gian sa cha Xac suat24 0.1 48 0.4 72 0.4 96 0.1

Thi gian ngng hoat ong trung bnh la 60 gi Chung ta co the quan tam en cac van e nh: T le thi gian nha may ngng hoat ong la bao nhieu? Moi nam trung bnh he thong truc trac bao nhieu lan? Ton that trung bnh do truc trac moi nam la bao nhieu? D nhien chung ta co the tra li cac cau hoi nay bang cac tnh toan thong thng (xem nh bai tap). ay vi ky thuat mo phong chung ta co the at ra cac van e khac hn, nh: Trong trng hp te hai nhat th thi gian ngng hoat ong la bao nhieu? Trong mot nam so lan truc trac toi thieu va toi a co the la bao nhieu? Kha nang ton that trong nam do truc trac vt qua 1,000,000 $ la bao nhieu? Mo hnh bai toan c thiet ke tren Excel nh sau

B C 3 Ton that do ngng hoat ong / gi 500 4 So gi hoat ong / nam =360*24 5 Thi gian hoat ong 560

6 Thi gian sa cha 72 7 Tong thi gian =SUM(C5:C6) 8 T le thi gian ngng hoat ong =C6/C7 9 So lan truc trac / nam =C4/C7

10 Ton that / nam =C3*C9*C6

Cac o th d bao va bao cao thong ke cung cap bi Crystal Ball se cho ta bc tranh rui ro hoan chnh hn. Chu ky hoat ong / sa cha co the dan trai t 34 gi en 2016 gi! Trung bnh la 717 gi, o lech chuan kha ln. Phan phoi lech ve ben phai (Skewness > 0) va hi det so vi phan phoi chuan tac (Kurtosis < 3). Phan phoi cua cac d bao khac cung tng t v ve can ban chung da tren cung mot thong tin. Trung bnh, co khoang 18% thi gian nha may ngng hoat ong, khoang 28 lan truc trac xay ra moi nam va ton that do truc trac moi nam khoang 773,000 $. ang chu y la kha nang xay ra nhng truc trac lam nha may ngng hoat ong lau va chu ton that ln (lam ton that trong nam vt qua 1,000,000 $)


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rat ang ke: hn 20%. Phan tch rui ro lien quan en tnh huong te hai nay se cho ngi ra quyet nh nhng y kien hp ly ve kha nang xau nhat co the xay ra la g


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x Quan tr d an

Trong quan tr d an ngi ta quan tam en viec lap lch trnh cho cac cong viec (co the lien quan vi nhau) cua mot d an. Mot trong nhng van e quan trong cua quan tr d an la xac nh thi gian hoan thanh d an. Cac thi gian thc hien cac cong viec trong d an co the xac nh hay bat nh. Chung ta thng gia nh cac khoang thi gian nay (neu bat nh) co phan phoi beta hay tam giac, nhat la khi chung c c lng chu quan. Cac phng phap phan tch thong thng nh PERT cho phep chung ta xac nh kha nang hoan tat d an vi gia thiet chuan. Tuy nhien gia thiet nay khong phai luc nao cung thoa trong thc te. Hn na phng phap PERT gia nh rang co the dung cac thi gian trung bnh hoan thanh cong viec e xac nh ng gang (critical path). Ky thuat mo phong co the a vao nhng ac trng thc te hn cho thi gian hoan thanh d an va cac rui ro lien quan. Chung ta se minh hoa cach phan tch rui ro trong quan tr d an bang v du sau ay Mot cong ty t van c thue e giup anh gia mot phan mem mi. Ngi phu trach phong he thong thong tin co trach nhiem phoi hp cac hoat ong t van va cac nguon lc cua cong ty. Cac cong viec sau ay c xac nh cung vi thi gian toi thieu (a), thng nhat (b) va toi a (c) e hoan thanh. Thi gian hoan tat d an d nh la 140 ngay. V ay la mot ng dung mi nen cac thi gian hoan thanh cong viec c phan oan theo chu quan, gia nh co phan phoi tam giac, mot so khac c xem nh khong oi a. Cac ac trng trung bnh va phng sai cua thi gian hoan thanh cac cong viec

c tnh theo cong thc sau:

6c4ba bnhtrung thanh hoangian Thi

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2a-csai Phng b. Thi iem bat au sm cua moi cong viec la gia tr ln nhat cua cac thi iem

ket thuc sm cua cac cong viec ngay trc o c. Thi iem ket thuc sm = Thi iem bat au sm + Thi gian hoan thanh cong

viec d. Thi iem ket thuc sm cua cong viec cuoi cung dien ta thi gian hoan thanh

sm nhat d an, la thi gian toi thieu hoan thanh d an e. e tnh cac thi iem bat au tre va ket thuc tre, ta at thi iem ket thuc tre

cua cong viec cuoi cung bang vi thi gian hoan thanh d an. Thi iem bat au tre co c bang cach tr thi gian hoan thanh cong viec vao thi iem ket thuc tre

f. Thi iem ket thuc tre cua mot cong viec bat ky X la gia tr nho nhat cua cac thi iem bat au tre cua cac cong viec thc hien ngay sau cong viec X

g. Slack la hieu so cua thi iem ket thuc tre va sm


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h. Thi gian hoan thanh cong viec la cac gia tr trung bnh Theo cach lam thong thng da tren cac thi gian trung bnh, ta xac nh c ng gang vi slack bang 0 la B-F-G-H-I-K-M-O-P-Q va thi gian hoan thanh d an trung bnh la 147.5 ngay Cac cong viec c cho trong danh sach di ay

Cong viec CV trc o Tg toi thieu Thng nhat Tg toi aA B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q

Thanh lap ban ch ao d an Trien khai danh muc cac yeu cau Trien khai quy mo he thong Xac nh nhom ban tiem nang Thanh lap nhom anh gia at yeu cau cho ke hoach e xuat To chc au thau Duyet cac e xuat Chon danh sach nhom ban Kiem tra nhom ban Nhom ban trnh bay oi tng khach hang Chon ngi ban Kiem tra o nhay cua doanh so Thng lng hp ong Phan tch hieu qua Trnh lanh ao duyet

_ _ _ _ A B,C,D,E F G H I I I J,K,L M M N,O P

15 40 10 2 5 4 1

25 3 3

20 3 3

10 10 2 5

15 45 14 2 7 5 1

30 5 3

30 3 3

13 14 2 5

15 60 30 5 9 8 1

50 10 10 45 5 3

20 28 2 5

Van e se phat sinh khi cac thi gian hoan thanh cong viec thc te khac vi gia tr trung bnh, luc o ng gang va thi gian hoan thanh d an co the khac vi ket qua tren rat nhieu. Ky thuat mo phong co the giai quyet c van e nay va cho ta cach nhn chnh xac hn kha canh rui ro cua bai toan. e lam c ieu nay ta gan cac phan phoi tam giac CB.Triangular(Minimum, Likeliest, Maximum) cho cac thi gian hoan tat cong viec va cho chay mo phong mot so lan tuy y e co phan phoi cua thi gian hoan thanh d an. Mo hnh mo phong c xay dng trong bang di ay


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A B C D E G H I J K

1 Quan tr d an 2

3 Cv

Tg tt

Tg tn

Tg t

Tg hoan tat B.au sm K.thuc sm

Bau tre Kthuc tre Slack

4 A 15 15 15 15 0 =G4+E4 =J4-E4 =I8 =J4-H4 5 B 40 45 60 =CB.Triangular(B5,C5,D5) 0 =G5+E5 =J5-E5 =I9 =J5-H5 6 C 10 14 30 =CB.Triangular(B6,C6,D6) 0 =G6+E6 =J6-E6 =I9 =J6-H6 7 D 2 2 5 =CB.Triangular(B7,C7,D7) 0 =G7+E7 =J7-E7 =I9 =J7-H7 8 E 5 7 9 =CB.Triangular(B8,C8,D8) =H4 =G8+E8 =J8-E8 =I9 =J8-H8 9 F 4 5 8 =CB.Triangular(B9,C9,D9) =MAX(H5,H6,H7,H8) =G9+E9 =J9-E9 =I10 =J9-H9 10 G 1 1 1 1 =H9 =G10+E10 =J10-E10 =I11 =J10-H1011 H 25 30 50 =CB.Triangular(B11,C11,D11) =H10 =G11+E11 =J11-E11 =I12 =J11-H1112 I 3 5 10 =CB.Triangular(B12,C12,D12) =H11 =G12+E12 =J12-E12 =MIN(I13,I13,I15) =J12-H1213 J 3 3 10 =CB.Triangular(B13,C13,D13) =H12 =G13+E13 =J13-E13 =I16 =J13-H1314 K 20 30 45 =CB.Triangular(B14,C14,D14) =H12 =G14+E14 =J14-E14 =I16 =J14-H1415 L 3 3 5 =CB.Triangular(B15,C15,D15) =H12 =G15+E15 =J15-E15 =I16 =J15-H1516 M3 3 3 3 =MAX(H13,H14,H15) =G16+E16 =J16-E16 =MIN(I17,I18) =J16-H1617 N 10 13 20 =CB.Triangular(B17,C17,D17) =H16 =G17+E17 =J17-E17 =I19 =J17-H1718 O 10 14 28 =CB.Triangular(B18,C18,D18) =H16 =G18+E18 =J18-E18 =I19 =J18-H1819 P 2 2 2 2 =MAX(H17,H18) =G19+E19 =J19-E19 =I20 =J19-H1920 Q 5 5 5 5 =H19 =G20+E20 =J20-E20 =H20 =J20-H2021 Thi gian hoan thanh d an =H20


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2. Trong quan tr tai chnh

Nhng van e ve tai chnh rat phu hp e dung ky thuat mo phong v chung thng c mo hnh hoa, tnh toan tren Excel va trong thc te nhng van e tai chnh cha nhieu yeu to bat nh. ay chung ta se minh hoa cach s dung ky thuat mo phong e khao sat hai bai toan tai chnh la hoach nh quy hu va tai che phe lieu

x Hoach nh quy hu D bao dong thu nhap va li suat au t hnh thanh c s cho van e hoach nh quy hu. Chung ta xem mot v du dung mo phong e anh gia ke hoach hu tr cua mot ngi 30 tuoi. Chung ta gia nh thu nhap hien tai cua nhan vien nay la 30,000 $ / nam, 7% thu nhap c trch a vao quy hu va ngi chu cung se ong gop so tien nh the vao quy hu cua nhan vien nay. Hai yeu to quan trong quyet nh so tien quy hu trong tng lai la thu nhap tng lai cua moi nhan vien va li suat au t cua quy. T le tang thu nhap hang nam va li suat au t co tnh bat nh. Chung ta co the gan cho cac yeu to nay nhng phan phoi a biet, v du t le tang thu nhap co phan phoi chuan vi trung bnh 5%, o lech chuan 2%. Neu chung ta gia nh lng ch co the tang hoac khong tang ch khong the giam th ta co the chat phan uoi ben trai cua phan phoi chuan tai iem 0 bang cach nhap gia tr 0 vao gii han di trong hop thoai phan phoi chuan. Trong trng hp khong co nhieu so lieu e xac nh phan phoi, ta co the c lng li suat au t co phan phoi tam giac. Neu nhan vien nay nhan nh rang li suat nay thng la 8%, nhng cung co khi rt xuong 5% hoac len en 15%, th cac tham so Min, Likeliest, Max lan lt se la 5%, 8%, 15%. Vi cac gia thiet a nh ta co the mo phong tnh hnh quy hu tr cua nhan vien nay sau 31 nam (t


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nam 30 tuoi en nam 60 tuoi) tren bang tnh Excel va cho chay 500 lan e co phan phoi cua no. Mo hnh mo phong nh sau

A B C D 1 Hoach nh quy hu 2 3 T le tang thu nhap 0.072 4 Li suat au t 0.044 5 T le ong gop 0.070 6 7 Tuoi Thu nhap ong gop Gia tr quy 8 30 30000 =B8*$C$5 =2*C8 9 31 =B8*(1+$C$3) =B9*$C$5 =2*C9+D8*(1+$C$4)

10 32 =B9*(1+$C$3) =B10*$C$5 =2*C10+D9*(1+$C$4) 11 33 =B10*(1+$C$3) =B11*$C$5 =2*C11+D10*(1+$C$4) 12 34 =B11*(1+$C$3) =B12*$C$5 =2*C12+D11*(1+$C$4) 13 35 =B12*(1+$C$3) =B13*$C$5 =2*C13+D12*(1+$C$4) 14 36 =B13*(1+$C$3) =B14*$C$5 =2*C14+D13*(1+$C$4) 15 37 =B14*(1+$C$3) =B15*$C$5 =2*C15+D14*(1+$C$4) 16 38 =B15*(1+$C$3) =B16*$C$5 =2*C16+D15*(1+$C$4) 17 39 =B16*(1+$C$3) =B17*$C$5 =2*C17+D16*(1+$C$4) 18 40 =B17*(1+$C$3) =B18*$C$5 =2*C18+D17*(1+$C$4) 19 41 =B18*(1+$C$3) =B19*$C$5 =2*C19+D18*(1+$C$4) 20 42 =B19*(1+$C$3) =B20*$C$5 =2*C20+D19*(1+$C$4) 21 43 =B20*(1+$C$3) =B21*$C$5 =2*C21+D20*(1+$C$4) 22 44 =B21*(1+$C$3) =B22*$C$5 =2*C22+D21*(1+$C$4) 23 45 =B22*(1+$C$3) =B23*$C$5 =2*C23+D22*(1+$C$4) 24 46 =B23*(1+$C$3) =B24*$C$5 =2*C24+D23*(1+$C$4) 25 47 =B24*(1+$C$3) =B25*$C$5 =2*C25+D24*(1+$C$4) 26 48 =B25*(1+$C$3) =B26*$C$5 =2*C26+D25*(1+$C$4) 27 49 =B26*(1+$C$3) =B27*$C$5 =2*C27+D26*(1+$C$4) 28 50 =B27*(1+$C$3) =B28*$C$5 =2*C28+D27*(1+$C$4) 29 51 =B28*(1+$C$3) =B29*$C$5 =2*C29+D28*(1+$C$4) 30 52 =B29*(1+$C$3) =B30*$C$5 =2*C30+D29*(1+$C$4) 31 53 =B30*(1+$C$3) =B31*$C$5 =2*C31+D30*(1+$C$4) 32 54 =B31*(1+$C$3) =B32*$C$5 =2*C32+D31*(1+$C$4) 33 55 =B32*(1+$C$3) =B33*$C$5 =2*C33+D32*(1+$C$4) 34 56 =B33*(1+$C$3) =B34*$C$5 =2*C34+D33*(1+$C$4) 35 57 =B34*(1+$C$3) =B35*$C$5 =2*C35+D34*(1+$C$4) 36 58 =B35*(1+$C$3) =B36*$C$5 =2*C36+D35*(1+$C$4) 37 59 =B36*(1+$C$3) =B37*$C$5 =2*C37+D36*(1+$C$4) 38 60 =B37*(1+$C$3) =B38*$C$5 =2*C38+D37*(1+$C$4)


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x Mo hnh tai che phe lieu

Yeu cau ve cong suat Trung tam tai che phe lieu cua thanh pho tang rat nhanh oi hoi phai trang b mot he thong thieu mi, nguyen lieu co the la: kh ot thien nhien (NG), dau (BO) hay go (W). Moi loai chat ot tng ng vi mot chi ph au t, chi ph hoat ong, gia nguyen lieu khac nhau. Chi ph hoat ong phu thuoc vao lng rac c tai che, trung bnh 1 trieu tan trong nam au va tang 10% moi nam. Chi ph nguyen lieu cung c tnh tren mot tan rac, neu theo phng an dung NG vaBO th chi ph nay phu thuoc vao gia dau P, cu the cho trong bang di ay NG BO W au t Nam 1 Nam 2 Chi ph hoat ong / tan rac Chi ph nguyen lieu / tan rac

6 $ 0 $

0.5 $ (0.3+0.01P) $

6 $ 0 $

0.6 $ 0.02P $

4 $ 2 $ 1 $

0.1 $

He thong mi co tuoi tho trung bnh 20 nam, va muc tieu cua chung ta la xac nh he thong x ly co chi ph thap nhat ay co hai nguon bat nh chnh: mc tang trng cua nhu cau va gia dau trong tng lai. Nhu cau tang trng trung bnh 10% / nam, nhng co the bien ong t 5% en 15%. Cac nha quan ly c lng mc tang trng nay co phan phoi chuan vi trung bnh la 10% va o lech 2%. Gia dau th rat bien ong, hien dao ong t 15 $ en 20 $ / thung va c c lng co phan phoi chuan vi trung bnh 18 $ va


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o lech 4 $. Mot nguon bat nh phu th ba la chi ph von, c gia nh co phan phoi chuan vi trung bnh 12% va o lech 1%. Mo hnh mo phong trong 5 nam cho trong bang sau

A B C D E

1 Mo hnh tai che phe lieu

2 3 Toc o tang trng nhu cau 0.1419984661 4 Gia dau 19.562969288 5 Chi ph von 0.1318543784 6 7 Nam 0 1 2 3 8 Nhu cau (trieu tan) 1 =C8*(1+$B$3) =D8*(1+$B$3) 9

10 Kh ot

11 au t (trieu US) 6 12 Chi ph hoat ong (trieu US) =0.5*C8 =0.5*D8 =0.5*E8 13 Chi ph nguyen lieu (trieu US) =(0.3+0.01*$B$4)*C8 =(0.3+0.01*$B$4)*D8 =(0.3+0.01*$B$4)*E814 Tong chi ph (trieu US) 6 =SUM(C11:C13) =SUM(D11:D13) =SUM(E11:E13) 15 16 Go

17 au t (trieu US) 4 2 18 Chi ph hoat ong (trieu US) =1*C8 =1*D8 =1*E8 19 Chi ph nguyen lieu (trieu US) =0.1*C8 =0.1*D8 =0.1*E8 20 Tong chi ph (trieu US) =SUM(B17:B19) =SUM(C17:C19) =SUM(D17:D19) =SUM(E17:E19) 21 22 Dau 23 au t (trieu US) 6 24 Chi ph hoat ong (trieu US) =0.6*C8 =0.6*D8 =0.6*E8 25 Chi ph nguyen lieu (trieu US) =0.02*$B$4*C8 =0.02*$B$4*D8 =0.02*$B$4*E8 26 Tong chi ph (trieu US) =SUM(B23:B25) =SUM(C23:C25) =SUM(D23:D25) =SUM(E23:E25)


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1 F G H I

2

3

4

5

6

7 4 5

8 =E8*(1+$B$3) =F8*(1+$B$3)

9

10

11

12 =0.5*F8 =0.5*G8 Hien gia Chon la 13 =(0.3+0.01*$B$4)*F8 =(0.3+0.01*$B$4)*G8 14 =SUM(F11:F13) =SUM(G11:G13) =NPV(B5,C14:G14)+B14 =IF(AND(H14


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2. Trong Marketing x Phan tch cac chien lc phan phoi

Cong ty san xuat o chi Izzy Rizzy thng phan phoi san pham cua mnh trc tiep cho cac ai ly ban s. Tuy nhien mot quan chc cua cong ty tin rang mot san pham mi co the tr thanh mot trong ca nc nen viec tiep th trc tiep san pham cho cac ca hang ban le se mang lai hieu qua ln. Bo phan ke toan tien hanh phan tch tng chien lc e xac nh cac chi ph tiep th, san xuat, d bao gia, c lng nhu cau. V cong ty co the trc tiep kiem soat kenh phan phoi ban le nen co ve doanh thu tiem nang tang len ang ke so vi phan phoi cho cac ai ly


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ban s. Cu the lng hang ban c trung bnh cua chien lc ban s c c lng la 400,000 san pham con cua chien lc ban le la 600,000 san pham, ca hai eu co phan phoi chuan vi o lech la 10% gia tr trung bnh. Mo hnh mo phong c cho trong bang sau

A B C D

1 Cong ty Izzy Rizzy 2 3 Phan phoi qua ban s Phan phoi qua ban le 4 Chi ph san xuat co nh 50000 Chi ph san xuat co nh 50000 5 Bien ph san xuat n v 0.2 Bien ph san xuat n v 0.2 6 Chi ph marketing co nh 40000 Chi ph marketing co nh 220000 7 Bien ph marketing n v 0.04 Bien ph marketing n v 0.08 8 Gia ban s 0.55 Gia ban le 0.8 9

10 Tong nh ph =B5+B7 Tong nh ph =D5+D7 11 Tong bien ph n v =B6+B8 Tong bien ph n v =D6+D8 12 Lng hang ban 389262.370409063 Lng hang ban 566478.101467756 13 Li tc thuan =B9*B13-B11-B12*B13 Li tc thuan =D9*D13-D11-D12*D13

Sau ay la mot so ket qua cho bi mo phong


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x Chon san pham vi rang buoc ngan sach Vi s no lc cua bo phan nghien cu va phat trien (R&D) cong ty tao c tam san pham mi. Gia ban, doanh thu, chi ph, von au t ban au c c lng bi mot nhom thanh lap t bo phan ke toan, marketing va cac bo phan khac trong cong ty. Tuy nhien khong the chon tat ca tam san pham v ngan sach phan bo cho au t co gii han. Mot tieu chuan la chon la toi a hoa li suat trung bnh cua danh muc au t vi trong so la t le phan bo von cho san pham va li suat cua san pham k c tnh nh sau:

k

kkk

au bant auphChi-Gia banLng u

kROI

va li suat trung bnh theo trong so c tnh theo cong thc

u

k

k

k

kk

I

ROII

Mot li giai toi u co the co c bang thuat toan tham lam n gian: Sap hang cac san pham theo th t ROI giam dan va chon lan lt t tren xuong cho en khi tong au t vt qua ngan sach. Tuy nhien cach lam nay cha tnh ti yeu to rui ro. Chang han doanh thu va chi ph la cac yeu to bat nh, co phan phoi chuan vi o lech bang 10% gia tr trung bnh. Chi ph d nhien la phai co tng quan vi doanh thu, gia s ta c lng c he so tng quan gia chung la 0.85. Khi a them cac yeu to rui ro vao va cho chay mo hnh mo phong, co khi chung ta se chon li giai toi u rat khac trc kia. Sau ay la mo hnh mo phong bai toan

1 A B C D E F G 2 Chon san pham vi rang buoc ngan sach 3 4 S.p Gia Lng ban Chi ph au t ban au Li suat trung bnh Sap hang 5 1 9 11457.3378 80378.6140 160000 =(B5*C5-D5)/E5 =RANK(F5,$F$5:$F$12,0) 6 2 2 498593.412 1003277.68 400000 =(B6*C6-D6)/E6 =RANK(F6,$F$5:$F$12,0) 7 3 850 201.208678 121795.226 250000 =(B7*C7-D7)/E7 =RANK(F7,$F$5:$F$12,0) 8 4 45 93848.6233 4308020.01 800000 =(B8*C8-D8)/E8 =RANK(F8,$F$5:$F$12,0) 9 5 4 877.287596 2821.88770 6000 =(B9*C9-D9)/E9 =RANK(F9,$F$5:$F$12,0)

10 6 17 84876.5708 1261073.32 500000 =(B10*C10-D10)/E10 =RANK(F10,$F$5:$F$12,0)11 7 475 47.7395851 20416.2521 30000 =(B11*C11-D11)/E11 =RANK(F11,$F$5:$F$12,0)12 8 23 213142.070 4599157.70 500000 =(B12*C12-D12)/E12 =RANK(F12,$F$5:$F$12,0)

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