• 1950 1992

Over 5x increase in global output

Nearly 12x increase in world trade

• 1950 - Richest / Poorest 20%: 30x

• 1989 - Richest / Poorest 20%: 60x

• 1999 - Richest / Poorest 20%: 78x

There is such a country!

Khosla’s Egalitarian Beer Mug

Richest fifth

Poorest fifth

Each horizontal band represents an equal fifth of the world’s people

People Income

Equity in the UNFCCC

PREAMBLE: Emphasizes differentiated responsibility, prevention of harm, differing needs, vulnerabilities, capabilities and resources. [12 out of 23 paragraphs]

OBJECTIVES: Calls for economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.

PRINCIPLES: Each of 5 principles includes equity considerations: equity, special needs, precautionary measures, right to sustainable development, and developing country growth.

Equity in the Kyoto ProtocolSummary of shifting principles:

• “Equity” does not appear

• Prominence of financial and technological transfers lost

• Focus on commitment period 2008-2012

• Focus on domestic action/options for reducing GHGs

• Internationally, “Minimize adverse impact”

• Sustainable development remains black box

• Tax on CDM for vulnerable countries; Regressive?

Relationship of Carbon Emissions to Income

Qatar

Luxembourg

United States

Singapore

Switzerland

Hong Kong, China

United Arab Emirates

Bahrain

Norway

Saudi ArabiaCzech Republic

Australia

Canada

Japan

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000

GDP/Capita (PPP$)

Ca

rbo

n E

mis

sio

ns

/Ca

pit

a (

ton

s)

Source: World Bank (1998); Marland, et al. (1998).

450 ppm Carbon 450 ppm Carbon Trajectories Trajectories

Cumulative emissions : 650 GtC1990 emission rate : 6 GtC/yr2100 emission rate : 3 GtC/yr

02468

1012141618202224

1860

1880

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

Year

Ca

rbo

n E

mis

sio

ns

(G

tC/y

r)

Annex I

Non-Annex I

450 ppm Carbon 450 ppm Carbon TrajectoriesTrajectories

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Year

Car

bo

n E

mis

sio

ns

(GtC

/yr)

Annex I

Non-Annex I

Envisioning Sustainable Development

In the end,

we are the

stories that

we tell