1_secretary_emmanuel_esguerra visayas shipping conference 2016

8/17/2019 1_Secretary_Emmanuel_Esguerra Visayas Shipping Conference 2016

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Philippine Macroeconomic Outlook,

Transport Directions, and Regional

Developments

Emmanuel F. Esguerra

Socioeconomic Planning Secretary

PISFA and Portcalls Shipping ConferenceCebu City

28 April 2016


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Outline of the Presentation

I. Macroeconomic Trends

II. Near-term Growth Outlook and Risks

III. Transport DirectionsIV. Regional Developments


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Macroeconomic Performance


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-10

00

10

20

!0

"0

#0

60

$0

80

6-yr %o&ing a&erage 62' 2010-201# a&e

Average growth in 2010-2015 is the highest 6-yearaverage growth since the mid-1!0s.

Source( ND! "ta## calculations

1!1-1!6"1!2-1!!"

1!#-1!$

2010-2015

$

in '%eal &'P growth (6-year moving average)


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1))0-1))) 2000-200) 2010-201#00

10

20

!0

"0

#0

60

$0

Agriculture Industry

Ser&ices

Supply Side

1))0-1))) 2000-200) 2010-201#-20

-1000

10

20

!0

"0

#0

60

$0

80

*et e+ports In&est%ent

,o&ern%ent Consu%ption

Demand Side

*nvestment and industry are increasingly+ecoming ma,or drivers o &'P growth

28'

"#'

62'

28'

"#'

62'A&e

groth

Structural transformation taking place


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Fourth /uarter F

201 2015 201 2015

Suly side

Agriculture "2 -0! 16 02Industry

)1 68 $) 60o .anufacturing $$ 66 8! #$Ser&ices #6 $" #) 6$

'emand side

Pri&ate consu%ption #0 6" #" 62,o&ern%ent consu%ption )" 1$" 1$ )"Capital For%ation !0 1!# #" 1!6 o Fi+ed capitalfor%ation 80 22# 68 1"0/+ports 128 $1 11! ##I%ports )) 1!! 8$ 11)

&%3SS '34ES*P%3'7 6.6 6.# 6.1 5.$Source: Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA)

&rowth o &'P +y omonent (8)

%ecent erormance indicates that the economy issteadily growing desite the initial slowdown

Favorable Macroeconomic Trends


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Source( Philippine Statistics Authority

ur &ibrant econo%y is producing %ore and better obsUnemployment and Underemployment

rates (8)

Employment Generated 2000- Jan 2016

(‘000)

*otes(a 3he F4 201" 5FS esti%ate is the a&erage of April 7uly and ct rounds e+cluding 5eyte datab 3he F4 201# 5FS esti%ates is the a&erage of the 7an to ct 201# rounds e+cluding 5eyte datac F4 201# e%ploy%ent generation esti%ate is the a&erage of April 7uly and ct e+cluding 5eyte datad 7anuary 2016 e%ploy%ent generation esti%ate e+cludes the pro&ince of 5eyte1))$-200#( Adoption of population proection bench%ar9 is based on the results of the 1))# Census2006-current( Adoption of population proection bench%ar9 based on the results of the 2000 Census

2010160

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7nderemloyment (8)

7nemloyment (8)

7nderemloyment %ate 7nemloyment %ate

Em2loyment &enerated (9000)

:age and Salary :or;er (8 in 5otalEm2loyment)

Em2loyment &enerated:age and Salary :or;ers (8 in 5otal Em2loyment)


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0.0

1.0

2.0

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5.0

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ore *n


9/36Source(


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%&

Our stronger fiscal position has been recogni/ed, earning an

investment-grade status from ma0or #R$s for the first time in *+1' Modest fscal defcit; Declining Public debt & interest

payments; Increasing reliance on domestic fnancing' Result: resilient fsal position

!isal side:

FiscalPosition

*ational ,o&ern%ent '

Share of e+penditures allocated to interest pay%ents

>$00

>200

!00

800

1!00

1800

Fiscal Position e&enue /Gort 3a+ /Gort

*ational go&:t outstanding debt >' of ,=P

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"ear-term )ro'th Outlook and Risks


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The Philippines is epected to remain one of the fastest

gro'ing economies in $sia

&'P &rowth o Selected Asian Economies>F4201# F42016f H F4201$f

Source( I.F-D/%(


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The vibrant vie' on the Philippine econom( is also shared b(

the private sector%

Source: arious sources! as o" #$ April %#'

#onsensus Forecast, Real )DP gro'th 2in 34

*+5 *+6 !D) *.& *.%

)arcla+s ,., -

iti ,.$ *.&

itch rating *.& *.&

Goldman "achs *.& - /") ,.0 ,.0

IM *.& *.(

Metro1ank Research *.2 -

Mood+3s *.& *.&

Nomura *., -

"tandard and 4oor3s *.& *.2

"tandard hartered )ank ,.5 ,.0

6N"!4 *.2 -

7) *.$ *.(

Median 6.0 6.0

Mean 6.0 6.0


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201" 201# 2016>3 201$>3 2018 >30

1

2

!

"

#

6

$

8

)

61#8

68

66$0

$680

eal ,=P ,roth ate >in '

actual 5o-end target high-end target

Outlook and Targets for *+5-*+7

1 Assu%ptions adopted by the =e&elop%ent =


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Epected Drivers of )ro'th

Demand side

/ousehold consumption8 remittance in#lows9 strong consumer con#idence9 low

in#lation9 low interest rates

Government spending8 e:pansion o# social protection programs ;i.e. T9 private

construction

:ports o# services8 good prospects #or )4M and tourism

Supply side

?ower petroleum prices

)usiness 4rocess Management ;)4M= #ueling growth in the real estate9 renting9

and 1usiness activities sector

onstruction and in#rastructure development

International and domestic tourism

7holesale and retail trade

Manu#acturing resurgence

1#


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ragile growth in @apan

"lowdown in large emerging economies9 particularl+ hina

!s+nchronous monetar+ policies in maAor developed

economies

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle ast9 e:tended period o#low oil prices

Maritime dispute in the 7est 4hilippine "ea

Risks to )ro'th

Eternal

Domestic

Natural haBards including the current l Nino phenomenon

4ossi1le ?a Nina in the second semester o# (&%* Disruptions in the peace process

Dela+s in in#rastructure and reconstruction proAects

?ogistics 1ottlenecks

!nd thin power reserves ;potential impact o# l Nino on h+dropower=

16

8e remain vigilant and 'ell- positioned against the do'nside risks to

gro'th


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Transport Directions in the Medium Term


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&rowth-enhanced Cscal sace has allowed ma,orinvestments in inrastructure with sending on

inrastructure more than triling...

Source( =epart%ent of


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Source: omprehensie & Integrated In"rastructure Program (IIP) : PhP* +%*,n (as o"

otal *nrastructure*nvestment +y Sector (201#-

2016 and +eyond)

Dul; o which are slated or transortation@ social@and energy inrastructures..

o 10 Agencies with the ?argest*nvestment

%euirements in the **P

*" 18

3ther Pu+lic *nrastructure" 8

:ater %esources" 18

Energy" 1$8

Social *nrastructure" 208

ransortation" #8

%an; >ame oAgency

oPro,ects

*nvestmentost

(in DillionPhP)

1 =PDB !2! 226)!#

2 =3C #88 1!)$$6

! =/ 2$# 1!2$06

" =B !) #0!$1

# =ep/d $ !10$$

6 PAFSA. 2#8 2!"8$

$


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hese ro,ects are unded mostly +y the nationalgovernment

thers Source *ot Indicated 12'

Pri&ate Sector 2$'

,o&ern%ent 61'

omrehensive and *ntegrated *nrastructure Program (**P)@ +y Funding Sourotal *nrastructure *nvestment o PhP!.2! trillion"

earsH 201#-2016 and Deyond

Source: omprehensie & Integrated In"rastructure Program (IIP) : PhP* +%*,n (as o"


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comlemented +y rivate investments in

u+lic inrastructure.Status o" ### #ro$ets (as o" 01 %pril 2016)

Source( PPP Center

Pro,ects +y Status>o. o

Pro,ectsAmount(P=P +n)

Pro,ects 7nder *mlementation

Contract Aarded 12 1)6#!

ther proects under I%ple%entation 2 106$!

PPP Pieline

Proects under Procure%ent 1# #$)$6

For Appro&al of ele&ant ,o&ern%ent


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9nderpinned b( stronger links bet'een !nvestment

Programming and :udgeting


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Multimodal Transport

' Multimodal Transport ramework is vital in

ensuring that multimodal transport s+stems

are developed as seamless networks

servicing all nationall+ strategic important

corridors9 and implemented in a timel+

manner.


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Recent Efforts for Transport S(stems Development

Program;Stud( Focus $rea"urve+ on Mindanao ?ogisticsIn#rastructure Network ;"M?IN=

?ogistics In#rastructure "+stem in Mindanao

Department o# Tourism ;DOT=- Departmento# 4u1lic 7orks and /ighwa+s ;D47/=onvergence 4rogram ;onvergence

4rogram=

?ogistics In#rastructure providing road accesstoC#rom tourist destination areas and othertransport in#rastructures such as ports and

airports

Master 4lan on /igh "tandard /ighwa+;/"/= Network Development

Road network and routes #or /"/ within thesphere o# (&&-km radius #rom Metro Manila andselect corridors in Davao to meet #uture tra##icdemand.

Data ollection "urve+ on Disaster-Resilient eeder 4orts and ?ogisticsNetwork

Disaster-resilient network o# #eeder ports toensure a secure and smooth logistics even intime o# disaster


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Multimodal Transport Frame'ork' $SE$" Frame'ork $greement on

Multimodal Transport

The agreement recogniBes the need todevelop an economic and e##icient

multimodal transport services to e:pand

trade 1etween mem1er states and third

countries.


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*+* *+.

!nternational


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Road Roll-on;Roll-off Terminal S(stem> Reduction in

the domestic cost of logistics

Sample#ase;Route

#osts8;O RRTS

#osts8ith RRTS

3 #ostSavings

)atangas-alapanRoute

Goods8 )eer 4h4 2&9$&& 4h4 %29&&& ,5F

Manila-e1u RouteGoods8 Dr+ Goods 4h4 ,&9&&& 4h4 $&9&&& (&F

am1oanga it+-)ato9 e1u RouteGoods8 !ssortedish

4h4 2(9&&& 4h4 (292*& (5F


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Regional Developments> #entral ?isa(as


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*+@ #entral ?isa(as Economic Situationer

' entral Visa+as is e:pected to per#orm 1etter in (&%,

despite concerns o# #alling e:ports due to weak glo1al

trade and the un#avora1le impact o# the l NiHo on

agriculture.

' O# the ten indicators 1eing monitored with availa1le data9

eight showed 1etter per#ormances. These include visitor

arrivals9 construction activities9 power consumption9 retail

trade9 )OI-registered investments9 ITC)4M investments9emplo+ment9 and prices.


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Ma0or Developments in the shipping industr(>

' 4roviding ($C5 customs services to address port

congestion.

' The #easi1ilit+ stud+ #or the new and 1igger

e1u International 4ort is currentl+ 1eing

reviewed 1+ the DOT #or su1mission to ND!

#or ICND! )oard approval.


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#entral ?isa(as Ongoing;Planned Transport Pro0ects, *+5

Pro,ect itle ?ocation ost PhP

Funding

Source Status.actan-CebuInternational Airport*e Passenger

3er%inal

5apu-lapuCity Cebu

1$#


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Pro,ect itle ?ocation ost PhPFundingSource Status

&R'R' #ort improements

Central Spine Proect Cebu and


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Pro,ect itle ?ocation ost PhPFundingSource Status

.etro Cebu 3ransport

.aster Plan

na na =A 3 is being

LnaliJed by =3CInter-City ail Syste% Cebu 2$


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Region ?!! Ma0or Transport Pro0ects

Pro,ect Agency

3utut Province

Pro,ect

ost(PhP Dn)

Status

San Carlos-=u%aguete oad* riental

=PDBConstructioni%pro&e%ent of126$) 9% of road

*egrosriental

21"


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Region ?!! Ma0or Transport Pro0ects

Pro,ect Agency

3utut ProvincePro,ectost

(PhP Dn)Status

5oay Interioroads

=PDB ehabilitation of $88# 9% road


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Philippine Macroeconomic Pro0ections,

Transport Direction, and Regional Developments

Emmanuel F. EsguerraSocioeconomic Planning Secretary

PISFA and Portcalls Shipping ConferenceCebu City

28 April 2016

1_secretary_emmanuel_esguerra visayas shipping conference 2016

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