()

. . ,

1st June 2017

100 1912 , ,

1930 , - (thermo-dynamic instability)

1938 , , , 4 (sounding) , (sonde)

1943-44 - , , 5

, , 401 (METOX) - 1680 10, , WBRT - , - ,

-3 30 WBRT - (IMS)

, - (TIFR) (SMPU) 1979 (MONEX) 13

1990 , , DoIT, , -

MK-4 - - MK -4

21 , () - ,

2007 , ,

2009 10 NCMRWF ECMWF , ECMWF (1Kumar et al, 2011)

, 2010 MW -31 (, )

(AOSN) , 2015 , 39 4 (PB)

43

-

1 01/08/2015 2 08/08/2015 3 12/08/2015 4 21/08/2015 5 05/08/2015 6 18/08/2015

A. WMO-GUAN -

GRAW , , , - -09 - -09 GUAN - -2016 " (GUAN) - ()" ( M. I.Ansari, et al, WMO TECO-2016) WMO -GCOS WMO_GUAN 6 ;

WMO-GUAN - Parameters Compliance

1. . 2. CLIMAT / CLIMAT TEMP 3. 4. . 5. 6. 40 ""

7. . 8. CLIMAT CLIMAT TEMP CLIMAT TEM 5 , 8 .

60 58

27

60 58

30

6055

27

5156

28

57

25 27 27

46

2732

7

26

145

26

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Delhi Mumbai Kolkata Chennai Guwahati Nagpur

Total No. of ascents

Acents beoynd 100 hPa

Beyond 10 hPa

Beyond 5 hPa

November 2015 November 2015

-2015, 2015 2016 , , , , 6 6 25 , 100 , 5

B. (Operational ) / (, , )

1 24-10-2015 8 18-10-2015

2 08-10-2015 9 08-10-2015

3 29-10-2015 10 03-12-2015

4 06-10-2015 11 12-10-2015

5 24-10-2015 12 19-10-2015

6 14-10-2015 13 08-05-2016

7 09-10-2015 14 14-10-2015

14 , , -5000 -20 -5000 -20 - , Ramashrey Yadav et al, 2016 14 NCMRWF 14 500 9.4 28.6 100 0.1 0 -1.0 0 100 - 14.0 81.8 ,

(i)

Count %Rejected SD( C) BIAS(C) RSME(C)

30 3 0.8 1.6 1.9 28 0 1.1 -0.4 1.2 26 0 1.7 0.2 1.7 30 0 1.4 0.2 1.4 27 3 1.5 0.3 1.6 21 0 1.8 0.4 1.8 17 6 1.6 0.3 1.7 10 0 1.8 -0.5 1.9 29 3 2.9 0.7 3.2 15 0 1.4 -0.3 1.5 9 0 1.2 0.3 1.3 15 0 2.6 1.3 3.7 18 0 1.6 0.1 1.6

100 hPa

(ii)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

No

of A

scen

ts

MONTH

total no of ascent beyond 100 mb beyond 50 mb beyond 20 mb beyond 10 mb

(iii)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Jan Feb March April May June

Perc

enta

ge o

f Asc

ent

Month

< 100 hpa < 20 hpa

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Jan Feb March April May June

Heig

ht (

Km )

Month

Avg. Height Max. Height

Level January February March April May June

SDH

SD T SDH

SDT

SDH

SDT

SDH

SDT

SDH

SDT

SDH

SDT

850 18.9 1.9 19.2 1.9 15.8 1.3 17.1 2.8 24.6 1.4 19.5 0.9500 51.4 2.5 40.5 3.0 30.9 2.0 22.2 1.9 23.6 2.3 25.9 0.8200 93.7 2.7 93.5 2.7 63.0 2.6 67.2 2.9 44.4 2.5 41.7 1.8100 71.4 3.4 85.9 3.1 68.2 2.2 55.8 2.7 75.1 2.7 53.5 1.950 41.4 2.7 99.0 1.9 56.8 2.4 50.7 2.9 65.3 1.9 57.5 2.4

Parameters No. ofObs.

Rejection (%)

500 hPa level 100 hPa levelSD Bias RMSE SD Bias RMSE

29 0 11.3 -9.4 14.7 9.5 -4.4 10.5 29 0 1.2 0.2 1.2 1.0 -0.1 1.0 (Zonal)

29 0 4.5 1.5 4.7 2.8 0.0 2.8

29 0 4.6 -0.2 4.6 4.4 -0.7 4.5

C. (Operational ) / (CFSAW, , )

1 18-06-2012 13 14-08-20152 19/8/2015 14 01-08-20153 21-06-2012 15 27-08-20154 1/8/2015 16 24-08-20155 15-05-2013 17 24-10-20156 27-04-2013 18 14-10-20157 08-07-2016 19 05-05-20148 12-06-2013 20 30-05-20149 16-06-2013 21 22-05-201310 07-06-2013 22 11-05-201311 27-07-2015 23 06-09-201512 20-06-2013

23 CFSAW, , , CFL-E CF-06A CFL-E CF-06 - , 12-13 2016 23 NCMRWF (first guess) 23 , bias -

7

2

13 14 13

20

10

46 5

13

18

26 27

23

7

13

26

17 18

14

0

5

10

15

20

25

30ASCENTS < 10 HPA

Month Misda ReasonJan (3) 2

1 ( /

Feb (7) 4

3 ( /

Mar (3) 3 ( /

April (4) 4 ( /

May (5) 2

2 1 (

)

June (1) 1 ( /

(i)

197.4

66.681.2

10587.5 82.1

133.5

81.769.5

179.4

116.1

334.6

12.3

36.9 28.812.6

35.4 27.6

57.9

15.3 15.5 15.9 23.5

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July August Sept Oct Nov Dec

Comparison of STANDARD Deviation of 100 hPa height between 2011 and 2015-16

100hPa SD of GPM Height in 2011

100hPa SD of GPM Height in 2015-16

4.0

4.4

2.7

3.1

4.75.0

4.4

6.3

3.2

4.9

3.7

4.5

1.8 1.7

2.5

1.62.0

2.9

1.6

2.5

2.02.3

1.7

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July August Sept Oct Nov Dec

100hPa SD of Temp in 2011 100hPa SD of Temp in 2015-16

(ii)

781

187 186 184 164

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Beyond 30 hPa

50-30 hPa 70-50 hPa 100-70 hPa Before 100 hPa

17-06-2013 1635 (12 ) 7.4 , 96 30-08-2014 3.6 / 112 (Misda) / / 90 % 100 65% 50

GPS - = 1502

(iii)

()

(NCMRWF) (ECMWF) (Validate) , , (ECMWF)

, , 2010 - ,

.. - (biases) (NCMRWF-GDS)

(bias) - , 100 - 500

, ,

????

() Slide Number 3Slide Number 4Slide Number 5Slide Number 6 Slide Number 8WMO-GUAN - Slide Number 10Slide Number 11Slide Number 12Slide Number 13Slide Number 14Slide Number 15Slide Number 16Slide Number 17Slide Number 18Slide Number 19Slide Number 20Slide Number 21Slide Number 22Slide Number 23..Slide Number 26